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EOD trading system

  • #741
  • Jan 7, 2009 11:48am Jan 7, 2009 11:48am
Quoting Pipscatcher
Can we have a long set up on EURUSD later?
Sell: EUR/CHF
USD/CHF

Buy: EUR/USD
  • #742
  • Jan 7, 2009 12:33pm Jan 7, 2009 12:33pm
I will give it till 9pm ..

all looks good on the thread

Paulus

'An eye for eye only ends up making the whole world blind'.
  • #743
  • Jan 7, 2009 1:53pm Jan 7, 2009 1:53pm
Quoting PistolDave
I also noticed there were several times where trades were stopped out by 25-30 pips and then turned and went on to profit.

Have you been able to do any backtesting on which method would be the best overall? I assume that since October of '08 that trend following would be, but during more "normal" periods (if there is such a thing)?

What are your thoughts on trailing stops and re-entry? That type thing.

Thanks,
PistolDave
Hey PistolDave,

The trailing produced more pips on ucad for the 2 years. I get 2,195 pips trailing and 949 not, but here's the thing... January 2008 to September 2008 I was down 780 pips. On October 15th trade I net 759 then on 11/5 I net 1050. That same period not trailing produced -302 pips and then I get 357 and 388 after... so the way I see this method is more of a long term investing... sort of like a 401k plan where you can't take a monthly income off of it until the end. You either 1) take the profits and run each trade or 2) trail the profits each day, and then at the end of the year you cash out your profits.. which if you had enough money could be a yearly income, but... In other words, it sometimes takes an entire year to profit.

The other thing is on the live trades I mentioned all of them failed but usd/cad and that was only because I put my stop above the swing high I considered. Stupid EJ hit the stop within pips and ran up, though it has not won yet either so it could still tank. So it is very frustrating to have 4 out of 5 lose at roughly the same time, but again if it is an investment, then it isn't so bad... i mean if you are in the usa, look at your 401k account this past year.

The only other thing I noticed, which seems often, except when the price is sitting for days and days, is that when the trades fail, they seem to go enough in the reverse to cover your losses should you "stop and reverse". The recent trades eur/gbp, usd/jpy, and gbp/usd all did. So I was thinking let's say you did 1 lot on each signal, then if you stop and reverse 1 lot to capture the pips lost... I will have to backtest this more and determine where the stop on that would be should it not go that way either... obviously you are double risking at that point too in that you may lose twice. EJ is one that would've not worked so far.
  • #744
  • Jan 7, 2009 1:54pm Jan 7, 2009 1:54pm
[quote=howard;2454029]
Quoting llambert3
I have backtested current live trades according to IBFX and what I consider the swing high/low for the stop. They are:


I will buy/sell at the close of each candle.. No waiting on retracing despite sometimes bad r:r. Once the pips get to 85% of ATR, I will set the trade to +1 or whatever to offset any negative rollover interest. I will have no TP, but trail on the entire lots entered. There will be a lot of b/e trades, but sometimes the trend goes enough to cover all missed trades and more.

Hi llambert

What...
Hey Howard, yes that is what I did.. 10 pips above/below the last candle. Now sometimes on ucad it went 20 or 30 then continued its merry way and even more pips could be had, which sucks.
  • #745
  • Jan 7, 2009 2:00pm Jan 7, 2009 2:00pm
Here is what I show upcoming today on ibfx so far for all pairs except some nzd crosses that are new to ibfx and don't have enough data:

long aud/cad (don't like this pair really)
long chf/jpy
short eur/chf
short usd/chf


I can't for the sake of me see why the indicator removed the arrow on eur/usd. My stochs and cci look right. It had it there, but now the blue dot and arrow are both gone. The only thing I can see is for some reason my stochs from 1/4/09 to today are pointed up as if there was no recent uptick. I am pretty sure this did not look this way last night.
  • #746
  • Jan 7, 2009 3:17pm Jan 7, 2009 3:17pm
I just looked at the following 3 pairs: EURUSD, USDCHF and EURCHF, so I got these figures:
USDCHF: short around 1.1015, tgt +279 pips, stp 1.1285
EURCHF: short around 1.5021, tgt +198 pips, stp 1.5155
EURUSD: long around 1.3630, tgt +304 pips, stp 1.3300

I am newbie to this strategy, so if somebody can comment my figures, I would appreciate.
  • #747
  • Jan 7, 2009 4:15pm Jan 7, 2009 4:15pm
I am a newbie too. This is my first trading day with this system.
I use an Alpari UK demo account.
Yesterday I did not have any signal.
Today I opened two positions:
EURUSD buy @ 1.36045, sl 1.33110, tp 1.39050
EURCHF sell @ 1.50235, sl 1.51420, tp 1.50275
No USDCHF or any other signals on Alpari.
  • #748
  • Jan 8, 2009 1:37am Jan 8, 2009 1:37am
Almandine

What time are you taking your positions ?

Cheers

Paulus
  • #749
  • Jan 8, 2009 1:45am Jan 8, 2009 1:45am
Quoting Paulus
Almandine

What time are you taking your positions ?

Paulus
Hi Paulus,
the two positions were taken at 21:16 and 21:18 yesterday. I am GMT + 1.
I do something wrong?

Oops: USDCHF was accidentally left on 15M... Switched back to 1D and the signal is there...
  • #750
  • Jan 8, 2009 1:57am Jan 8, 2009 1:57am
Hi no thats fine

9pm UK time is the earliest you want to take them...

All looks good to me

Dont forget your money management though

P
  • #751
  • Jan 8, 2009 2:12am Jan 8, 2009 2:12am
Paulus,
if you take your positions at 21h00 GMT, should be 22h00 CET if I am correct?
I am based on the continent, so I looked at my chart at 22h00 and that is the same time as Equity market closing in the US.
Thanks for the help
  • #752
  • Jan 9, 2009 11:56am Jan 9, 2009 11:56am
Quoting llambert3
Here is what I show upcoming today on ibfx so far for all pairs except some nzd crosses that are new to ibfx and don't have enough data:

long aud/cad (don't like this pair really)
long chf/jpy
short eur/chf
short usd/chf


I can't for the sake of me see why the indicator removed the arrow on eur/usd. My stochs and cci look right. It had it there, but now the blue dot and arrow are both gone. The only thing I can see is for some reason my stochs from 1/4/09 to today are pointed up as if there was no recent uptick. I am pretty sure this did not...
the aud/cad dissapeared by eod... the gbp/chf was added. both the gbp/chf and chf/jpy lost and along with the eur/jpy had you stopped and reversed would not have lost money as you would've regained those pips. The gbp/chf had a tight stop and was really good r:r

So far since I went demo live I've had 1 win and 6 losses. Not too encouraging but over time should work out hopefully. And all of the 6 losses could be at 0 pips had I stopped and reversed.

Current live trades are:

sell eur/chf
buy usd/chf

ibfx never showed the arrow again on eur/usd.. good thing as its close to failing too.. Looks like when the trends are undecided they all may fail together and when they are decided they win together.. Let's hope something changes!
  • #753
  • Jan 9, 2009 1:39pm Jan 9, 2009 1:39pm
Since Nov 5th I've taken 35 trades - winning percentage is down to 54 percent. Only one winner out of the last 8 trades for me. Four I entered Sunday night and all were losers. I haven't studied the ATR values but it seems to me like they are decreasing. Best to all, Lynn
  • #754
  • Jan 9, 2009 1:44pm Jan 9, 2009 1:44pm
stick with it .. use your money management

Paulus
  • #755
  • Jan 10, 2009 1:16am Jan 10, 2009 1:16am
Quoting lbhales
Since Nov 5th I've taken 35 trades - winning percentage is down to 54 percent. Only one winner out of the last 8 trades for me. Four I entered Sunday night and all were losers. I haven't studied the ATR values but it seems to me like they are decreasing. Best to all, Lynn
Hi lbhales,

I suggest backtesting the pairs mentioned in this thread and you will see that there is the potential for some extended periods of drawdown possible, even though over a longer period it should be profitable.

You have to take a longer term view on profitability for this system.

I'm also wondering if there is any possible way to determine beforehand which trades are more likely to be winners than losers in this system.

I would like to hear about any possible ideas anyone may have on identifying and filtering out the lower probability trades, which should increase the hitrate and increase the overall profitability of the system.

Thanks.
  • #756
  • Jan 10, 2009 11:56am Jan 10, 2009 11:56am
Quoting PistolDave
I would like to hear about any possible ideas anyone may have on identifying and filtering out the lower probability trades, which should increase the hitrate and increase the overall profitability of the system.

Thanks.
I found, just like the others on here, waiting for a break of the high/low of the signal bar prevented a lot of losses, but then where do you enter without increasing risk and lowering the tp?
  • #757
  • Jan 11, 2009 5:49am Jan 11, 2009 5:49am
Back testing is redundant, as been pointed out by gtrade. There are issues with it that affect the results. The only way is to forward test on a demo or live account!

Plus you have to look at the results over a longer period not just what it made that week etc.
  • #758
  • Jan 11, 2009 5:58am Jan 11, 2009 5:58am
Yes law

Agree this eod system like most eod system is designed to build finds up over a longer term..hence do not look at weekly results more 3monthly results..

I look at a 3-5year plan for eod systems

Paulus
  • #759
  • Edited 5:24pm Jan 12, 2009 5:23pm | Edited 5:24pm
Hi

I have entered three trades since the first full trading week of 2009.

I wanted to post them so you can see the results.

One winner, one loser, and the jury is still out on the third.

The winner:
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #760
  • Jan 12, 2009 6:01pm Jan 12, 2009 6:01pm
The first chart is the EUR/USD. It was stopped out with help from the NFP report last Friday. It looked doubtful from the beginning, since price was dropping out of a two week range sitting right on top of the 200 ema. But if you want to trade the system you have to go by the rules.

The second one is still an open trade. The USD/CHF looks to be poised for a potential breakout of the ascending triangle at the 200 ema. If it gets through the latest swing high at 1.1275 then I'm out. At this point it doesn't look promising.

If the CHF gets stopped out, it will still be about breakeven for the total on the three trades.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eod-02.gif Size: 21 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: eod-03.gif Size: 22 KB
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