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My trades by Dave

  • #81
  • Oct 6, 2005 7:25pm Oct 6, 2005 7:25pm
Yes simple moving average.

Dave

Quoting kittensizedbulldozer
Dave,

Quick, newbie question for you. When you're talking about MA, I'm assuming your talking about Moving Average, but is this wrong? Are you just using a simple moving average, no weights?
  • #82
  • Oct 6, 2005 11:19pm Oct 6, 2005 11:19pm
Hi Dave,

according to my charts (MT4), your stop has been hit exactly (hate it when that happens). Looks like you were willing to give some back to the market. Wouldn't it have been better to have taken your profit at an earier level, say 1.2185, since you were expecting a pullback to the 38 fibo, then re-entereing with another trade?

Great going
Habeeb
Keeping it Simple
  • #83
  • Oct 7, 2005 1:50am Oct 7, 2005 1:50am
It all depends on what I think at the time. That time I didn't know so I moved s/l into small profits below fibo and let it ride.

I still don't know what its doing. it has to establish something first. Prolly good to stay out till next week now.

Dave

Quoting habeeb
Hi Dave,

according to my charts (MT4), your stop has been hit exactly (hate it when that happens). Looks like you were willing to give some back to the market. Wouldn't it have been better to have taken your profit at an earier level, say 1.2185, since you were expecting a pullback to the 38 fibo, then re-entereing with another trade?

Great going
Habeeb
  • #84
  • Oct 7, 2005 10:27am Oct 7, 2005 10:27am
Quoting xxDavidxSxx
Moving stop up to the 38.2 fibo.
1.2164 is fibo so s/l is 1.2160

trend lines on 5 min sugest a pull back to 1.2110 is possible. The rally topped out at the 100 daily MA at the time was 1.2203 now is 1.2199.

Dave
The pull back has happened.

Long entry @ 1.2110
s/l:1.2085
target: retest of highs:1.2180
  • #85
  • Oct 7, 2005 10:53am Oct 7, 2005 10:53am
Quoting xxDavidxSxx
The pull back has happened.

Long entry @ 1.2110
s/l:1.2085
target: retest of highs:1.2180
Here is entry on 1 hr chart. Price found support on the bottom trend line. Hopefully confirming this trend line. I will wach it untill it pulls off this line.
It is possible to see it pull back to 1.2050 range so a tight s/l is set just beyond days low and other side of trend line.

Dave

p.s. In case your wondering. I am using charts off a demo account. I wanted a price alarm that I could set. fxcm free charts don't offer that.
This demo charting is great but since its a demo there not realiable. They lose connection often.
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  • #86
  • Oct 7, 2005 11:24am Oct 7, 2005 11:24am
Lets hope it does go up. Been stopped out once on this move on an entry at 2028 that reversed to below your entry point.

Lou
  • #87
  • Edited 1:44pm Oct 7, 2005 1:34pm | Edited 1:44pm
Quoting Lou
Lets hope it does go up. Been stopped out once on this move on an entry at 2028 that reversed to below your entry point.

Lou
When you entered the long at 1.2028 did you mean to say 1.2128?

If you meant 1.2128 then did you wait for the pull back to established a bottom?

I waited for a bottom to be hit,(former 1.2090 support) and my trend line on 1 hr chart. Then I waited for a retest and a failer to reach the first low point.
Once the bottom was established for the pull back then I entered and placed s/l just below the support wich also happens to be a pivot point.
Hourlys are over sold and turning up on the stochs.
I hope this helps.

Dave

edit: there also has been no retest of the highs. I expect there to be a retest and failer. The high is 1.2199/2203 and is also the 100 day MA. Thats the topside pivot point. Then probly range between these 2 pivot points for a couple of days while the market decides what its doing.
If The move up was wave 1 and the move down was wave 2 then the next move up will be bigger than the first. So far the move up was wave C to the previous trend as outlined on previous charts on my thread.
Only a break of the 100 day MA will confirm the up trend.
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  • #88
  • Oct 7, 2005 2:07pm Oct 7, 2005 2:07pm
I am reluctant in leaving my position in for the weekend.

But daily charts are turned up and so is 1,2 hour charts.


I have no fear of hitting s/l after broker closes cause of people taking profits from the move down, should provide lift for the remainder of the day.

Have a great weekend!

Dave
  • #89
  • Oct 7, 2005 2:38pm Oct 7, 2005 2:38pm
Yes, it was 2128. Got back in later and took myself out with a small gain over all.

I went long at the 10:15 candle on 15 min but that turned out to be close to the high. My indicators showed bottoming a few bars prior, and then a crossing up and movement out of the OS zone. But the strenght of the movement had exhausted itself by then.

Lou
  • #90
  • Oct 8, 2005 9:10am Oct 8, 2005 9:10am
Quoting Lou
Yes, it was 2128. Got back in later and took myself out with a small gain over all.

I went long at the 10:15 candle on 15 min but that turned out to be close to the high. My indicators showed bottoming a few bars prior, and then a crossing up and movement out of the OS zone. But the strenght of the movement had exhausted itself by then.

Lou
Don't worrie it should retest support @ 1.2090 or mabe lower befor retesting the top side at the 100 day MA. Tomarrow I'll have a couple of charts to post.

Dave
  • #91
  • Oct 8, 2005 4:57pm Oct 8, 2005 4:57pm
I have drawn up 2 similer paths the price "could" take in the next few weeks.

There is a bearish path too and requires penetraiting 1.1900 support. I belive the market is going to complete a 5 wave pattern in a bull trend based on the wave 1 impulse wave that has emerged from the bottom of a long consilidation peroid.

This is the first time I've tried to draw the path befor hand. So this will probly be so far off and waist of 30 min time to draw it. Its just an idea.

Dave

edit: 4 hr chart

Blue words say blue path is if 1.2090 support breaks and possibly targets 1.2030/35
Red words say red path is if 1.2090 support don't break.
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  • #92
  • Oct 8, 2005 5:12pm Oct 8, 2005 5:12pm
On the above chart...
If support breaks it will get to the bottom trend line sooner.
Wave 3 will be very nice when it finaly takes off. That much I do know. Finding the point to get in on that is the diffacult part. Wave 2 is suppost to be the most complex wave of the 5.
All this info I am giving is right out of an eliot wave lesson. actually there 10 lessons. I have about 5 under my belt. This stuff is very deep but just the basics will improve trading 100%.
Some thing to wach for in this 5 wave formation thats suppost to happen is if the 2nd wave is flat than the 4th wave will be sharp.
If support holds at 1.2090 then wave 2 will be flat.

What I see above is a range between 1.2090 and 1.2200 until it gets to the bottom trend line. Some where in there it should retest 1.2203 high befor getting to the bottom trend line. Don't know how long this will take.

Dave
  • #93
  • Oct 8, 2005 6:12pm Oct 8, 2005 6:12pm
I am studying EW using Robert Miner's Dynamic Trading. Have the book and his daily reports, some downloaded Ebooks and attendance at his seminar at the Chicago Expo to go on. Would like to banter with you about what I see and compare ideas.

Unfortunately for trading and messaging I work full time and am only available from 4:30 pm to 10:30 pm US Central time on weekdays.

Do you use Fib time and price to find target zones?

Lou
  • #94
  • Oct 8, 2005 6:26pm Oct 8, 2005 6:26pm
Quoting Lou
I am studying EW using Robert Miner's Dynamic Trading. Have the book and his daily reports, some downloaded Ebooks and attendance at his seminar at the Chicago Expo to go on. Would like to banter with you about what I see and compare ideas.

Unfortunately for trading and messaging I work full time and am only available from 4:30 pm to 10:30 pm US Central time on weekdays.

Do you use Fib time and price to find target zones?

Lou
I do use fibos and price, support/resistance levels and trend lines to determine target zones.
I basicly am reading a 10 lesson e-book. It can get very complex. I would do better in a class setting with hands on demo trading in class.
I belive if you can master wave counting through all time frames you can almost know every move the market can possibly make.
The key is since there are always more than 1 possibility you cann't get stuck on one idea and not recognise when another outcome is unfolding.

If you plot a direction on a 4 hr chart you have to moniter 1 hr, 30min,5min charts to make sure the inner waves fall into a place where it can follow the 4 hr path. If you see it unfolding well you can cash in on the inner waves too. A break of support/resistance can affect wave direction. I plan a path on support holding and breaking. Then on this one since its a bullish trend I'll go with the bullish path.
But the trend isn't confirmed untill a break of 100 day MA. <----the key to next week.

Dave

Dave
  • #95
  • Oct 9, 2005 1:50am Oct 9, 2005 1:50am
Your comments are very interesting to me because although I have used the 4 hr chart and keep it handy when I am looking at the 15, 60 and daily, the 4hr has never seemed to give me any usefull information. I know it is a natural step between the hourly and the daily.

If I recall correctly the 100 MA on the hourly is used in a system that appears in this forum regularly.

I have not been paying attention to trend lines but I can see that they might form a triangulation with price and time fibs. In your study of EW do you get detailed about counts or look more for the major action, reaction moves.

Lou
  • #96
  • Oct 9, 2005 12:23pm Oct 9, 2005 12:23pm
Quoting Lou
Your comments are very interesting to me because although I have used the 4 hr chart and keep it handy when I am looking at the 15, 60 and daily, the 4hr has never seemed to give me any usefull information. I know it is a natural step between the hourly and the daily.

If I recall correctly the 100 MA on the hourly is used in a system that appears in this forum regularly.

I have not been paying attention to trend lines but I can see that they might form a triangulation with price and time fibs. In your study of EW do you get detailed about counts or look more for the major action, reaction moves.

Lou
As far as detailed in count, all I can identify is 1,2,3,4,5,a,b,c. The 4 hr charts still look like the daily sept broken down. I can better identify the retrace waves(2,4) formation better than on daily.
The most significant MA I belive for day traders is the 100 day MA.
The higher on the time scale the MA the more significance it holds. Same with trend lines. And pivots.
The RSI on the 4 hr gives me a good idea when there is gonna be a decient move. A break above or below 50 RSI on the 4 hr and 1 hr gives some prior notice to a move. Then I look at 1 hr and 5 min charts to see when that move is starting to unfold or if the move decides to change.

Here is a chart where the RSI looks to have bounced off 50 on the 1 hr. And is aiming back up on the 4 hr. Lets see how this plays out.
Apon a break below 50 on the 1 hr chart I'll exit my long trade there. If it don't test highs first.


Dave
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  • #97
  • Oct 9, 2005 12:26pm Oct 9, 2005 12:26pm
above is 1 hr this is 4.
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  • #98
  • Oct 9, 2005 5:06pm Oct 9, 2005 5:06pm
Eur/usd seems to be forming a bullish head and shoulders. Sticking to bottom trend line tight. Slowly
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  • #99
  • Oct 9, 2005 8:24pm Oct 9, 2005 8:24pm
Dave,

I am looking at the 15, 60, 4hr and daily. What trigger to go long are you considering?


Lou
  • #100
  • Oct 9, 2005 8:39pm Oct 9, 2005 8:39pm
Lou,I went long on this post last friday.

Its still developing. 1.2152 is daily pivot point. Break of that could be an entry.
I am pulling trade if it fails to break it.

Dave

Quoting xxDavidxSxx
The pull back has happened.

Long entry @ 1.2110
s/l:1.2085
target: retest of highs:1.2180
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