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Trading aud/nzd successfully

  • #841
  • Jan 7, 2009 1:18am Jan 7, 2009 1:18am
Quoting nanningbob
Should be the same 150 pips above the entrance point, however, I dont know if I put it in or not before I posted it. If it isnt there let me know and I will post one with one in or you can put one in. When I test live I start with 1 penny so I never use stop losses until I get into more serious money. One penny going 500 pips in the hole does not bother me. I want to see what an EA does under real conditions. That is one of the major reasons I am with IBFX, I can trade pennies and get comfortable with a trading system without risking sums of money....
sl is in there it was just 0 so good to go...thanx
  • #842
  • Jan 7, 2009 1:38am Jan 7, 2009 1:38am
can someone look over the mods i made to frostys excel - post 834
Grabbing the bull by the horns!
  • #843
  • Jan 7, 2009 1:47am Jan 7, 2009 1:47am
Quoting nanningbob
Should be the same 150 pips above the entrance point, however, I dont know if I put it in or not before I posted it. If it isnt there let me know and I will post one with one in or you can put one in. When I test live I start with 1 penny so I never use stop losses until I get into more serious money. One penny going 500 pips in the hole does not bother me. I want to see what an EA does under real conditions. That is one of the major reasons I am with IBFX, I can trade pennies and get comfortable with a trading system without risking sums of money....
100% agree. Sometimes, when demo spread is 11, live is 23 spread. And live will NEVER become 11 spread
  • #844
  • Jan 7, 2009 1:47am Jan 7, 2009 1:47am
Quoting rbrtsha
sl is in there it was just 0 so good to go...thanx
SL is based on two things:
1. For the 1H 30x20, what distance is there that will almost never get hit but makes a loss still acceptable. To me with 4 or 5 levels 150 brought in good numbers. If I hit a stop loss it would take 5-10 trades to overcome.
2. What am I willing to lose on a trade and still trade again. Everyone has their number. You can use frost calls excel program and see what you are willing to take on a hit and then adjust your SL to that number. That is how I came up with my figure.
  • #845
  • Jan 7, 2009 2:11am Jan 7, 2009 2:11am
Quoting onu
Thx Arnold.


:nerd:


this is how the chart looks like after adding a 0 to the MAs, as urbanfx said

that still looks wrong, use my template.
Attached File(s)
File Type: tpl 30x20 buy sell.tpl   5 KB | 231 downloads
  • #846
  • Edited 6:52am Jan 7, 2009 6:36am | Edited 6:52am
  •  onu
  • | Joined Feb 2006 | Status: superior senior member | 746 Posts
Quoting Arnold49
that still looks wrong, use my template.
Thx a lot Steve
Now i run in the same problem with Bobs new 5M approach.....
How did u fix it?
  • #847
  • Jan 7, 2009 6:40am Jan 7, 2009 6:40am
today market [from Asia open to US open] high/low is the one of the lowest i have seen for the past 6 months. anybody know why is this happening ?
  • #848
  • Jan 7, 2009 6:56am Jan 7, 2009 6:56am
Quoting onu
Thx a lot Steve
Now i run in the same problem with Bobs new 5M approach.....
How did u fix it?

If you look at the settings for the indicators you will see all I have done is add a 0 to the level settings.

Steve.
  • #849
  • Jan 7, 2009 7:07am Jan 7, 2009 7:07am
Something I've been mulling over. I understasnd the 80 pip buffer above the 40 MA, however the spread only really goes one way, so should the 80 pip buffer below the 40 MA be smaller in relation.

Just a thought....
"The market giveth and the market taketh away"
  • #850
  • Jan 7, 2009 9:10am Jan 7, 2009 9:10am
i keep getting re-quote and off quote from IBFX, it's really irritating and their spread is really very unstable. Anyone has good recommendation for broker ?
  • #851
  • Jan 7, 2009 10:19am Jan 7, 2009 10:19am
Quoting urbanFX
Something I've been mulling over. I understasnd the 80 pip buffer above the 40 MA, however the spread only really goes one way, so should the 80 pip buffer below the 40 MA be smaller in relation.

Just a thought....
I did that with the 5M, may try that with 1H and see what it does.
  • #852
  • Jan 7, 2009 10:47am Jan 7, 2009 10:47am
One reason I post my EAs is people see things I dont and make suggestions I may never think of. One guy posted the idea of using the 5M chart and at first I blew the suggestion away. That was almost a big big mistake. It turns out to be a truly great suggestion. Just when I thought this was not going to work on certain currencies (gbp/jpy, gbp/chf, etc.) I decided to try some numbers in the 5M chart and found a really interesting discovery. Because of how MA lines function on a 5M chart over a 1H, something I did not know before, all currencies have now come back into play. Here are two pics of the same move from Monday on the gbp/chf. On the 1H chart this trade hit the stop loss, along with some other currencies and blew out a 3000 dollar demo account in less than 24 hours. You can see where price is above A and the trade enters very early in the day and several hours later hits the black stop loss line. This was a 688 pip move and took a heavy loss. Next post.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbp chf 1h.gif Size: 16 KB
  • #853
  • Jan 7, 2009 10:55am Jan 7, 2009 10:55am
Here is the same day but using a 5M chart. It takes longer to enter the trade cutting almost 200 pips off the trade and making it a safer 3 level trade. Notice how price starts the day below the yellow line, enters much later at B and then reverses for a profit at C. I have checked other currencies out and I see this same safe action to otherwise very volatile currencies. The 5M maybe safer to trade than the 1H. Take a look. I will try some new numbers and EAs soon to demo. Same trade totally different results.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbp chf 5m.gif Size: 17 KB
  • #854
  • Jan 7, 2009 12:36pm Jan 7, 2009 12:36pm
Great work on the evolution of this EA. Thanks Bob for sharing. Here's another thought.

What is the historical maximum range for all pairs before a retrace of at least 30 pips? If we knew the statistics on that, we could customize the EA for each particular currency pair.

1) For pairs that have larger moves, start the # of lots lower (keep at .01) and increase the max trades. Maybe even modifying the # of pips from the moving average. No pair will continue indefinitely without at least a 30 pip retrace.

2) For pairs that trade in a tighter range, increase the # of lots.

I'm testing this now on about 10 pairs in a demo account without a stop loss to see what the limits would be. I raised the max trades to 10 to see what it would do.

Seems we could use Nanningbobs work on historical range per day across all currencies to help us figure out the right mix on each pair.

Thoughts?
  • #855
  • Jan 7, 2009 1:38pm Jan 7, 2009 1:38pm
Quoting newera
Great work on the evolution of this EA....
I've tried looking into that, but couldn't find a way to do it using excel, it's not as easy as it sounds!

not only do you have to look for retracement bars but also the difference between bars going in the same direction, eg; the high of the last bar (up)
versus the low of the next up bar.

I'm sure it mst be possible , but I'm afraid it's beyond me at the mo'
  • #856
  • Jan 7, 2009 3:53pm Jan 7, 2009 3:53pm
The more I look at this system and EA, the more I like it. The trades are at a number of pips away from that center line, and you're buying low and/or selling high, instead of the other way around. I checked another pair, the AUD/USD, and believe this at least one other pair that would work, but with a stop loss of about 300 and entries every 50 pips. The interesting thing is what Bob mentioned earlier that there's a difference between the one hour chart and 5 minute chart. In looking at the differtence between the two, there's less trades, but the trades that are made are at further distances from that center white line, with better chances of reversals. I'd rather have less trades anyway, to save on the nerves and commission, and knowing that those trades are further away from that white line where the pair has a tendency to return to. As long as the EA is making the trades, I don't have to worry about watching the charts and lines. Anxiously awaiting Bob's further posts on the additional study he's doing on other pairs.
  • #857
  • Jan 7, 2009 4:24pm Jan 7, 2009 4:24pm
Quoting newera
Great work on the evolution of this EA....
This has been one of my questions also. I've been trading the Eur/USD 100/40 (.02) (1.5 mult.) , no stoploss with a maximum trades (15) since the end Of October. I'd love to know how far it's ever moved in one direction without a 100 pip retrace. Since the end of Oct. I haven't seen it move more than about 450-500 pips (11-12 levels) without a retrace of 100 pips. Strategy tester doesn't show it going any deeper than this for at least a year but that's without any slippage or spread widening. I'm betting if you had $3000-$5000 trading you could feel fairly good about not getting a margin call.
  • #858
  • Jan 7, 2009 7:21pm Jan 7, 2009 7:21pm
Quoting whitegoodman
can someone look over the mods i made to frostys excel - post 834
I could not get the multiplier to work. It is set at 1.8 I think. Can you change that??
  • #859
  • Jan 7, 2009 7:28pm Jan 7, 2009 7:28pm
Quoting newera
Great work on the evolution of this EA....
The only way of doing that would be eyeballing it. The best month ever for doing it is Oct. - Nov. 2008 because that was the most volatile month ever in recent forex history. I know of no way of writing a program that would find the longest trend without a 100 pip retrace or what ever. Some computer programmer out there may figure it out but I cant think of a way of doing it. Be great info though.
  • #860
  • Jan 7, 2009 7:32pm Jan 7, 2009 7:32pm
Quoting Toothman
This has been one of my questions also. I've been trading the Eur/USD 100/40 (.02) (1.5 mult.) , no stoploss with a maximum trades (15) since the end Of October....
The problem I have always found with Forex is there is always a chance the market will move whatever levels you set. So 15 levels are very safe until that one chance in a million it happens. It is crazy to me that a 1 chance in a million can happen to me for bad but not for good. For example, I can buy lottery tickets from now until I die and never win but I can guarantee I will hit the 1 in a million losing scenario in Forex.

Like the day I do the 15 level thing with 5000 dollars would be the day Israel drops a bomb on Iran and ...............................
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