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4 Hour Strategy (MACD)

  • #18,341
  • Jan 6, 2009 10:06am Jan 6, 2009 10:06am
Quoting hijackxx
It is clear now, thx . As long as we are still on the same macd method we're still on the same track.

Btw euro gave TC and I would've taken it if I were there on my laptop! Stoploss would've been small but I just wasn't there. Aww...
Hello bro,

Earlier (post #18333) I sent my H1 entry method for SHORT entry, and the price did went down to 200SMA @ h4 chart . 5 out of 5 right now. This method really gives me positive results so far, as long it satisfy Philip's 4 Hour MACD rules!!!

Will hunt some more pips yeah....
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  • #18,342
  • Jan 6, 2009 10:34am Jan 6, 2009 10:34am
Hello brothers and sisters in pips,

Looks like a good LONG entry signal here eh?

Price supported @ h4 200SMA and might rebounce to 21EMA, or at least 365EMA. My H1 method also recommended me to LONG at this point.

Fuh...long or not? We'll see what happen tomorrow (I wish I hit it again this time)
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  • #18,343
  • Jan 6, 2009 10:59am Jan 6, 2009 10:59am
Hi all,

I wanted to share with you guys a trading checklist and report I have created that summarizes my reasons for entry and exit and analysis. I have taken bits and pieces of information from books and some templates and created one that works for me and has the information I need. Everyone can adjust by taking or adding elements to the journal. I wanted it to be simple but yet informative and for it to be able to fit on 1 page and I wanted to share it with you. Maybe some would find it easy and it allows you to plan the trade before you trade the plan.

I am posting the one I did from last night Usd/Jpy trade that I made. The template is in Usd/Jpy post trade.doc attachment.

Feel free to post any recommendations and your thoughts about this template. Would love to have your opinions.
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Attached File(s)
File Type: doc usdjpy trade.doc   29 KB | 555 downloads
Keeping Life Simple
  • #18,344
  • Jan 6, 2009 11:16am Jan 6, 2009 11:16am
I wanted to put in my two cents about counter trend trade. We all know counter trend trades are high risk trades and some are riskier than others. If price is in a well established channel lines and taking counter trend trades from top and bottom of the lines confirmed with MACD and emotion of candle, then it is a high probability high risk trade.

However, counter trading in a well defined trend say back to the 8 and 21ema is very risky. Now what I have noticed is that if one does want to trade those trades, due to it's limited size to the 8 and 21ema, then you have higher probability to catch those few pips on the 1H time frame as if you wait for the 4H candle to close you might have lost those few pips and it would be too late and you might get stopped out.

Round top, Round bottom or Aggressive turnaround can be taken on the MACD on the 1H to get in early on the retracements as sometime the trend is so strong, price doesn't even touch the 8ema before continuing it's direction. The 4H might give a signal but when you take it price has started to turn around and go on it's current direction.

Let me know your thoughts...........
Keeping Life Simple
  • #18,345
  • Jan 6, 2009 2:06pm Jan 6, 2009 2:06pm
Took usdcad short for breakout-trade and TC on the 4hr MACD. Could be the 'happy pips'
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  • #18,346
  • Jan 6, 2009 4:56pm Jan 6, 2009 4:56pm
time:

Thanks for the doc. It's good to have a top down approach to decision making instead of guestimating things...

Well, looking at te EURUSD were right at the 50% retrace level that I was looking at a few days earlier. When markets hit this number they have a tendency to linger here for a while before making a decision on which way to go. If you look at the daily, we bounced right at its 89SMA. Where from here....Hmm, fundamentals might kick in to move things so I'm being cautious. Lots of oil news happening, and more talk of currency trading in the news som when a story makes the news you know it's time to 'think different'.

Thinking out loud here, we might start 'riding the 8' here with the next downside target around the 3200 level at the Fib 38.2 number. The 1 hour looks like it's forming the second sister too....
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  • #18,347
  • Jan 6, 2009 5:15pm Jan 6, 2009 5:15pm
Quoting Palmer
time:

Thanks for the doc. It's good to have a top down approach to decision making instead of guestimating things...

Well, looking at te EURUSD were right at the 50% retrace level that I was looking at a few days earlier. When markets hit this number they have a tendency to linger here for a while before making a decision on which way to go. If you look at the daily, we bounced right at its 89SMA. Where from here....Hmm, fundamentals might kick in to move things so I'm being cautious. Lots of oil news happening, and more talk of currency trading...
hey palmer,

you know the document just make you aware of why you are entering and not just entering because MACD says so...

Can you explain what you meant by the 1 hour looks like it's forming the second sister?

thank you
Keeping Life Simple
  • #18,348
  • Jan 6, 2009 5:39pm Jan 6, 2009 5:39pm
Palmer what is your view on my current usdcad short trade targeting the 161.8%? My view is by looking at the breakout, 4hr entry, I think it might go even lower to that area. But the only thing that bothers is price hasn't cross the daily 89MA. I just want your comment on this pair.
Thanks
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  • #18,349
  • Jan 6, 2009 5:45pm Jan 6, 2009 5:45pm
time:

This was brought up...like a year ago or so by Tamkras I believe who posted some great charts about this. Basically, after a top or bottom formed, there can be a formation of three humps in a downtrend or three dips in an uptrend. After the third 'sister' ( the hump or the dip) forms there is usually a very good possibility that after the third sister forms price continues in that direction. It's more or less a confirmation move in the trend. I haven't visited Phillip's 5 min thread here in a while but I believe Golfer posts on this from time to time. You can see here in the 1hr cable chart with the light blue lines above and below the sisters. Again, this isn't something to trade by, although some have in the past it's just another pattern to add to the list...
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  • #18,350
  • Jan 6, 2009 6:00pm Jan 6, 2009 6:00pm
Quoting hijackxx
Palmer what is your view on my current usdcad short trade targeting the 161.8%? My view is by looking at the breakout, 4hr entry, I think it might go even lower to that area. But the only thing that bothers is price hasn't cross the daily 89MA. I just want your comment on this pair.
Thanks
hijackxx:

The trend is clearly down here. The only thing that 'concerns' me is the distance that price has pulled away from the 8ema on the 4hr. Take a look here on the 4hr ( the small light blue lines) and see how the 8 can act as a rubber band pulling price back to it. You can really see this on just about every pair when price pulls away from the 8. On the 1hour the MACD might be trying to form the same pattern where price came back to the zero and continued down or come back to the 21 area, on the 1hr here. I'd be shooting for the same target you have...
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  • #18,351
  • Jan 6, 2009 6:13pm Jan 6, 2009 6:13pm
thanks, Chris. Appreciate it.. I'd take your words into consideration for the next execution.
  • #18,352
  • Jan 6, 2009 6:20pm Jan 6, 2009 6:20pm
No problem...Look back at the trend in the EURUSD from about Dec 8th to the top around the 18th. Price was really moving up and 'riding the 8' here and when price pulled away from the 8 it, at some point it came back down to it (the pullback) then continued. The MACD can be a little late with a Tc sometimes but this is where the 1hr entry can help with the ADX. But again, this is when the 4hr rhythm is really strong like it was during this time.

Everyone: this happens over and over lots of pairs. It's a matter of letting the trend develope like this, waiting for the pullbacks, and finding your entry point...
  • #18,353
  • Jan 6, 2009 7:01pm Jan 6, 2009 7:01pm
Quoting orangeRANGE
Hello brothers and sisters in pips,

Looks like a good LONG entry signal here eh?

Price supported @ h4 200SMA and might rebounce to 21EMA, or at least 365EMA. My H1 method also recommended me to LONG at this point.

Fuh...long or not? We'll see what happen tomorrow (I wish I hit it again this time)
Hello guys,

Last night I found the Counter Trend (LONG entry signal) in my h1 and I predicted the the price went up to @ least 365EMA/8EMA level @ h4 chart (last nite the 365EMA level = 8EMA level). Again, it did as I expected.

At this moment, the price still resisted @ 8EMA (h4 chart). Ready for another SHORT in favor guys? Goodluck!!!
  • #18,354
  • Jan 6, 2009 7:29pm Jan 6, 2009 7:29pm
oRANGE...hmmmm...I can see the 50 Fib# either becoming a sticking point with price or turning into resistance. The 1hr looks like it wants to revisit the low from earlier today. Only time will tell...
  • #18,355
  • Jan 6, 2009 10:02pm Jan 6, 2009 10:02pm
Quoting Palmer
oRANGE...hmmmm...I can see the 50 Fib# either becoming a sticking point with price or turning into resistance. The 1hr looks like it wants to revisit the low from earlier today. Only time will tell...
Palmer...
We all know this is the market rhythm...
I have the same opinion with you anyway...plus the 1hr MACD can give the early signal of the price direction (at least to me). I haven't make any analysis yet today though...

K.I.T.
  • #18,356
  • Jan 7, 2009 12:20am Jan 7, 2009 12:20am
Brothers/Sisters in PIPs,

Attached herewith is .pdf file based on my own opinion only. Please have a look and your comments are most welcome

Have a great day trading...!!!!
Attached File(s)
File Type: pdf UIBVAE.pdf   380 KB | 1,095 downloads
  • #18,357
  • Jan 7, 2009 1:14am Jan 7, 2009 1:14am
Quoting orangeRANGE
Brothers/Sisters in PIPs,

Attached herewith is .pdf file based on my own opinion only. Please have a look and your comments are most welcome

Have a great day trading...!!!!
can u pls send the indicator so that i get follow what u are explaining

thanks in anticipation
  • #18,358
  • Edited 7:32am Jan 7, 2009 6:01am | Edited 7:32am
EurUsd trade in the 1hr tf

A continuation of price movement after fast MA intersected, waited for it to retrace then a confirming candle as shown

Entry 1.3627
stoploss 1.3584
tp 1.3700

Closed the trade as 13:00hr candle closed lower and hit SL. Now price is currently >1.3627 and moving upward...hhhmmmm. It just one of those days i guess
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  • #18,359
  • Jan 7, 2009 8:52am Jan 7, 2009 8:52am
Quoting kareemoladun
can u pls send the indicator so that i get follow what u are explaining

thanks in anticipation
Hello,

I still use the same SMA(89 & 200) & EMA(8, 21 & 365) set up. My H1 MACD setting (5;13;50) is a little bit different from H4 MACD setting (5;13;1).

Thats it. Does this answer your questions?

p/s-I don't use MT4 chart for some reason
  • #18,360
  • Jan 7, 2009 9:26am Jan 7, 2009 9:26am
Quoting Al1nn
EurUsd trade in the 1hr tf

A continuation of price movement after fast MA intersected, waited for it to retrace then a confirming candle as shown

Entry 1.3627
stoploss 1.3584
tp 1.3700

Closed the trade as 13:00hr candle closed lower and hit SL. Now price is currently >1.3627 and moving upward...hhhmmmm. It just one of those days i guess
Hi Al1nn,
I found strong upward movement there. There is a group of candlestick formed "3 outside up" (strong bullish reversal signal). Did you see what I mean?

The price found some resistance @ 365EMA in 1h chart when I send post this reply to you. Lets see what the MACD can tell us....
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