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7am-9am Big Dog USD Breakout Strategy

  • #1,121
  • Jan 6, 2009 7:05am Jan 6, 2009 7:05am
Hi all
I use this system on eur/jpy only. 50 pt target profit always. Does not matter what the range is. The stop of corse is the opposite entry line. works very well. Mondays I do not trade since the volume is light.
  • #1,122
  • Jan 6, 2009 11:05am Jan 6, 2009 11:05am
Hi zeuzera,

thank you for sharing with us your breakout-system. I have a question regarding the risk calculation. As you say below, the risk is the hight of the breakout candle. But when the breakout happens you don't know the hight of that candle because normally the candle hasn't closed yet. Therefore you cannot calculate the risk to set the SL. For MM purposes it is important to know the risk before entering a position. Maybe I haven't understood your system completely. I would very helpful for me if you could clarify this.

Thank you
07nioe

Quoting zeuzera

Calculation:

-my risk is the hight of the brkout-candle
-my target (chance) has to be minimum 2,5 times bigger than my risk (allways !!!)
-my maximum target is the hight of the range

For example GBPUSD:

-since september we have an average candels of 35 pips during the opening hours in New York
-so our target has to be minimum 82 pips
-and we have an average range of something over 100 pips
-so mathematicly it is everything OK, but the devil is in detail !!!
  • #1,123
  • Jan 6, 2009 12:15pm Jan 6, 2009 12:15pm
Quoting 07nioe
Hi zeuzera,

thank you for sharing with us your breakout-system. I have a question regarding the risk calculation. As you say below, the risk is the hight of the breakout candle. But when the breakout happens you don't know the hight of that candle because normally the candle hasn't closed yet. Therefore you cannot calculate the risk to set the SL. For MM purposes it is important to know the risk before entering a position. Maybe I haven't understood your system completely. I would very helpful for me if you could clarify this.

Thank you
07nioe...
you're supposed to enter after the breakout candle closes according to zeuzera's rules
It's NOT GAMBLING when the odds are in your favor
  • #1,124
  • Jan 6, 2009 1:54pm Jan 6, 2009 1:54pm
Ok so I haven't said anything in a while but I am loving this strategy.

The rules for any strategy change with the market. Obviously right now we have a very volatile market. I have noticed that the range from 1400-1600 doesnt matter as much as how that range appeared. if you candles that are spanning the entire range of 1400-1600 you can't trust it. But for example today EURUSD had a 100pip range and most candles were around 25 pips in height. This is showing a market fight between the long and shorts, testing the maxes. You can see the low tested at 1430, and the high being tested at 1600.

Ive noticed most times the high gets tested towards the end, it'll do a quick drop than shoot back up. I'm thinking that maybe if a boundary is getting tested at the end of the timeframe we could set the buy-in 10 pips higher(or lower) of the range so if it is only testing we can buy during the dip that is inevitable. Just a thought.
  • #1,125
  • Jan 7, 2009 3:40am Jan 7, 2009 3:40am
ifyou keep to the orginal system and look for aclean 4-5 break out of the barriers you should have continued success, all be it just on the g/u with 15 minute chart 7-9 am NY time, in addition i have been trialling zeuzerras breakout mehtods and timing for euope and close of asian sessions and has been working well, but have only trialled it since January 1
  • #1,126
  • Jan 8, 2009 1:49am Jan 8, 2009 1:49am
Hello everyone,

I was introduced here to this thread to check out this method. I'll be looking into it for the next few weeks, and will also demo trade it. Hope to be able to catch up to everyone in a week or two on trading this method. Happy to join everyone here. =)
  • #1,127
  • Jan 22, 2009 2:54am Jan 22, 2009 2:54am
I came across this by chance, and though I don't trade it, I thought to mention that it is usefull with these methods to draw a fib from the high and low of the previous day and consider any nearby fib levels before you take the break, also figuring fib extentions of the high low of the range or the cycle that produced the break is useful for targets.
  • #1,128
  • Jan 24, 2009 3:23pm Jan 24, 2009 3:23pm
Well RR, got to your 1st EA this A.M. and i wanted to post my settings in hopes that others will post theirs and we can compare and maybe find a superior way to trade this EA.

I am trading EurUsd, GbpUsd, EurJpy and GbpJpy for both break out range times of 05:00-07:00 and 14:00 to 16:00.

S/L for each pair is 40 pips

EurUsd T/P = 15 pips with a move to -15 when + 10 pips is reached

GbpUsd T/P = 15 pips with a move to -15 pips when +10 pips is reached

EurJpy T/P = 20 pips with a move to -15 pips when +10 pips is reached

GbpJpy T/P = 30 pips with a move to -15 pips when +20 pips is reached.

I will also be keeping track of certain things daily to see how to make these settings better.

I would love to see what other people are using as settings and compare results and maybe find the most profitable combination.

Thanks again RR...I will hopefully get to another EA soon enough
"Keep your eyes on the helpers" - Mr. Rogers
  • #1,129
  • Feb 3, 2009 9:09am Feb 3, 2009 9:09am
Done for the day.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbp.gif Size: 57 KB
It's Easy To Get In;.. It's Hard To Get Out
  • #1,130
  • Feb 18, 2009 2:28pm Feb 18, 2009 2:28pm
this strategy is not working good for the GBP/USD...
enybody can trade whit this stategy yet??
  • #1,131
  • Feb 23, 2009 2:46am Feb 23, 2009 2:46am
Quoting napster_630
this strategy is not working good for the GBP/USD...
enybody can trade whit this stategy yet??

Hi napster.


See the rules n first posting:

2. If the Distance between the high and low is less than 50-60 pips, it could be very profitable.
3. If the Distance between the high and low is more than 50-60 pips, it could be not very profitable.

Since september we have a very high vola in the market so there are not so many chances to make this "big dog brkout on USD"-trades.
GBPUSD is too volatil.
Take a look on EURUSD and AUDUSD.



zeuzera
  • #1,132
  • Feb 24, 2009 3:25am Feb 24, 2009 3:25am
Hi,

I have been trying this strategy for the USD-pairs at 1400-1600. Are there any other good pairs or breakout times that have been used with success? Have people left this strategy of are some still using it?

Regards¨

Archie
  • #1,133
  • Feb 24, 2009 7:14pm Feb 24, 2009 7:14pm
I also wonder what TP and SL that people have found to be the most profitable. I have seen several examples when I have been reading through the thread.

The breakout can sometimes go very far, but sometimes it goes a couple of pips in favour and then returns, and then goes up again and so on. A tight trailing stop would not catch the moves and a bigger one can add up losing trades. I am thinking of both a higher TP, the same as the breakout range, and keeping the SL at the same level. Then the RR-ratio is good, but I'm afraid the TP is somewhat too high. Often the breakout does not hit the SL if it is placed at the opposite low/high (at least lately), and perhaps then keep the SL there, but lower the TP.

The other alternative is a really low TP of 5-20 pips, but the questions is then where to place the SL if the RR-ratio should be reasonable.

Any input is appreciated.

Regards

Archie
  • #1,134
  • Feb 25, 2009 11:38am Feb 25, 2009 11:38am
Quoting John D
Done for the day.
trades for today...
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: usdcad.GIF Size: 33 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpusd.GIF Size: 28 KB
  • #1,135
  • Feb 26, 2009 9:36am Feb 26, 2009 9:36am
Quoting Archie
I also wonder what TP and SL that people have found to be the most profitable. I have seen several examples when I have been reading through the thread.

The breakout can sometimes go very far, but sometimes it goes a couple of pips in favour and then returns, and then goes up again and so on. A tight trailing stop would not catch the moves and a bigger one can add up losing trades. I am thinking of both a higher TP, the same as the breakout range, and keeping the SL at the same level. Then the RR-ratio is good, but I'm afraid the TP is somewhat...


Hi Archie.

There are some general rules for the most "range brkouts" on the markets.
Google it.

You must recognize high quality range !!!!

One of the rule is, the TP should be the "range hight".
So, if we have range 50 pips, than we should have TP 50 pips.

Next rule is for SL.
Not experinced traders are putting SL on the opposite side of the range. Than you have bad RR-ratio (1).
Better traders are waiting for an "pull back" and continuation of the move, putting the SL 1 pip above (for short trades) the high of the pull back and go in the market with new lows. Than they have RR of 2-3.
Sometimes there is no pull back so they dont trade !!!

And some traders put the SL a few pips above the brkout candle.

Also important, wait for close !!!

If the "brkout candle" is to big, dont trade.

You have to concentrate on one particular pair at particular time range brkout.
Each pair on each brkout time is different and mostly has to be traded with different parameters.


zeuzera
  • #1,136
  • Feb 26, 2009 10:49am Feb 26, 2009 10:49am
Hi,

Thank you very much for the answer. I wonder what you mean with a pull-back and continuation of the move?

Regards

Archie



Quoting zeuzera
Hi Archie.

There are some general rules for the most "range brkouts" on the markets.
Google it.

You must recognize high quality range !!!!

One of the rule is, the TP should be the "range hight".
So, if we have range 50 pips, than we should have TP 50 pips.

Next rule is for SL.
Not experinced traders are putting SL on the opposite side of the range. Than you have bad RR-ratio (1).
Better traders are waiting for an "pull back" and continuation of the move, putting the SL 1 pip above (for short trades) the high of the...
  • #1,137
  • Feb 27, 2009 2:40am Feb 27, 2009 2:40am
Quoting Archie
Hi,

Thank you very much for the answer. I wonder what you mean with a pull-back and continuation of the move?

Regards

Archie

Hi Archie.


Google it for:

Breakout-Pullback-Continuation
breakout pullback set up



Also on Youtube: (there are good vidieos)

Breakout Strategy
breakout pullback setup



zeuzera
  • #1,138
  • Mar 10, 2009 4:30am Mar 10, 2009 4:30am
Just curious if anyone still trading this method??? Profitable?



Quoting zeuzera
Hi Archie.


Google it for:

Breakout-Pullback-Continuation
breakout pullback set up



Also on Youtube: (there are good vidieos)

Breakout Strategy
breakout pullback setup



zeuzera
  • #1,139
  • Mar 10, 2009 8:35am Mar 10, 2009 8:35am
Hey Seapip

Yes we are still using this method and it is profitable........just make sure you stick to the rulz
  • #1,140
  • Mar 11, 2009 8:19am Mar 11, 2009 8:19am
market watch is chande?!
my market watch is a london hour (GMT).what time in my chart using?!
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