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4 Hour Strategy (MACD)

  • #2,601
  • Mar 14, 2007 11:02pm Mar 14, 2007 11:02pm
Quoting tamkras
Price often repeats itself in miniature forms by following the same business cycles. Just as an observation. But a series of striking similarities can not bypass me. What if this is the small replica of bigger W? What is the next move?
i like the way u analysis the Eur/Usd pair,so am i correct to say that it will head south soon? nose-diving? cool abt your analysis,keep them coming,i am interested abt teaching and i am still learning...thanks tamkras!
  • #2,602
  • Mar 15, 2007 12:02am Mar 15, 2007 12:02am
Quoting alcastro
Hi pips, I deleted it because after a very thorough analysis I found out that i was looking at the wrong pair!!!!!!!!
LOL! I find that I do the same thing!!
  • #2,603
  • Mar 15, 2007 12:14am Mar 15, 2007 12:14am
Quoting alcastro
Ok...here is my frustration with the time zone where I live: I have to work in a 9-5 job until I am able to build a good knowledge base that will give me the confidence to trade for a living (with the free time I so desperately want!!!); and until I have a capital that will allow me to trade the number of lots I need to provide me with the income I require.
That means that I cannot trade between between 8:00 AM and 3:00 PM, when the market moves the most. And If I want a piece of the action I have to wake up at 2:00 AM to trade the London open, and hope that i will catch a good trade that will move fast so that i can go to bed with my stop at least at b/e. or....trade as i do...after 5:00 PM...in a ranging market...with weak MACD signals that at one moment point in one direction and at the other points at the other....and then again at the opposite direction..and the price moves sideways...and you pray for some trend to develop...but nothing!!! (sigh!!!).
Well...here I am...spilling my frustration in this forum!!! Pls excuse this intrussion.

Hey Alcastro!

Don't be frustrated!!! Grass is always greener in another time zone, but each one has serious limitations. Look at Phillip...he goes to work when London opens, but his trades that were placed based on 4 hour system have worked out. The market is very choppy right now, and few good trades have presented themselves. Stay focused, motivated and positive (avoid trading b/c a trade hasn't presented itself for awhile). Before you know it, your account will have grown to a sustainable amount and you will be trading for a living. Just takes time -- and lots of sacrafice.

I live in PST -- and the "hopping" hours are from 1 am - 10 am. Have found most of my good trades are identified/entered outside those hours.

Also, focus on 1 or 2 pairs (like Phillip says). You'll trade less, but it will be much easier to follow.
  • #2,604
  • Mar 15, 2007 1:14am Mar 15, 2007 1:14am
Ok...here is my frustration with the time zone where I live: I have to work in a 9-5 job until I am able to build a good knowledge base that will give me the confidence to trade for a living (with the free time I so desperately want!!!); and until I have a capital that will allow me to trade the number of lots I need to provide me with the income I require.
That means that I cannot trade between between 8:00 AM and 3:00 PM, when the market moves the most. And If I want a piece of the action I have to wake up at 2:00 AM to trade the London open, and hope that i will catch a good trade that will move fast so that i can go to bed with my stop at least at b/e. or....trade as i do...after 5:00 PM...in a ranging market...with weak MACD signals that at one moment point in one direction and at the other points at the other....and then again at the opposite direction..and the price moves sideways...and you pray for some trend to develop...but nothing!!! (sigh!!!).
Well...here I am...spilling my frustration in this forum!!! Pls excuse this intrussion.

I may be able to give you some hope with what I have heard from my east coast friends. In the future you will be a much better trader and will be able to set alarms only to wake you up when the pair hits a price target that you want. You will wake up, see the charts, make the trade and go back to bed. I hear many people do it all the time. Your chart reading will be so good you won't worry about the break evens. Always focus on how much better you will be next year. I thought I would have it down in 6 months and it's been 2 years. but because of this system it will happen very soon. Patience grasshopper (that is what I tell myself).

Well They say that there’s a pie up in the sky; Waiting for me when I die; But between the day you’re born and when you die; they never seem to hear you when you cry; So as sure as the sun will shine; I’m going to get my share of what is mine….. Jimmy Cliff
  • #2,605
  • Mar 15, 2007 2:54am Mar 15, 2007 2:54am
Quoting alcastro
Hi Pilgrim,
I like your rules. They are simple..no fuss here. Only high probability trades...why increase the risk in an already risky business?
One question though....can you elaborate a little more on #3? Do you mean: go short if the bar crosses the zero line to the south, or long if the MACD crosses the zero line up?
Wow, you have been busy with the posts! I love them! yes, that is exactly what I mean. The idea being when you have the crossover you have a more clearly defined "group" in charge, the buyers or sellers. This is the same idea with the RSI, above 50 indicates a strong uptrend, below 50 indicates a strong downtrend. It is possible to develop a system and trade the crossovers alone but you won't get has many on the 4 hour. You'll notice that crossovers also tend to occur near where the 8 ema and 21 ema crossover each other indicating a shift of power. Stay away from small candles that keep crossing back over the middle line, Phillip had been pointing those out on GBP a few days ago, they are a sign of indecision.

We all learn more together.

Pilgrim
  • #2,606
  • Mar 15, 2007 3:14am Mar 15, 2007 3:14am
Quoting tamkras
Price often repeats itself in miniature forms by following the same business cycles. Just as an observation. But a series of striking similarities can not bypass me. What if this is the small replica of bigger W? What is the next move?
Hi and it seems to be a perfect bat setup. Have a look at the screen shot. All the ratios are perfect. Lets see

Eckbert
Attached Image
  • #2,607
  • Mar 15, 2007 4:38am Mar 15, 2007 4:38am
entered short on the MACD downhill @ 1.3227 and pulled out early @ 1.3208 making +19 pips this morning. didn't let the trade last very long as it was a countertrend move. stop loss i had set @ 1.3247 and then @ breakeven as the price began to fall. take profit was set just above 21EMA @ 1.3197 so the R:R ratio was greater than 1. i hope some of you also involved in this setup and made some money

p.s. similar trade could have been taken on gbp/usd
  • #2,608
  • Mar 15, 2007 5:09am Mar 15, 2007 5:09am
Hi everyone,

I'm looking at the 4h GBP/USD now. March 15, 2007, 08.00

Am I right to assume that the formation of Round Top is revealing?
Should I get ready for the next 4h entry.

Please advise.

Regards,
  • #2,609
  • Mar 15, 2007 5:24am Mar 15, 2007 5:24am
You are correct. However for me, it is already at the 21/8 ema, this pair has been ranging so the ema's haven't meant too much though, the ema's are very close and there is cpi/ppi news coming out in about 1 hour?

I also took the eur/usd trade except I entered about 7 hours ago, pulled 16 pips on first tp, and missed my second by one pip, so closed manually at 14 total of 30 pips.

Time zones - I live on east coast, and have similar views. Fortunately I can trade while at work, but I would also agree that most of the signals I take are not during major trading hours. If you think about it, to get a nice MACD curl the price needs to not move very much at that curl point, and still be far enough above or below the 21/8ema to have good R:R. So, that comes quite a bit between major trading hours. Just my take.

Quoting chenkz
Hi everyone,

I'm looking at the 4h GBP/USD now. March 15, 2007, 08.00

Am I right to assume that the formation of Round Top is revealing?
Should I get ready for the next 4h entry.

Please advise.

Regards,
DireXiv Make it happen, no one else is going to do it for you...
  • #2,610
  • Mar 15, 2007 5:42am Mar 15, 2007 5:42am
This pair has been pretty volatile lately, but for the most part has followed the 4 hour macd rules pretty well.

We sit at the 89, it's be rejected the time before, I have an old trenline/market rhythm line providing resistance, tails up, very, very nice RT forming, 75 pips above the 21 still, a 1-2-3 candle pattern, that has not confirmed, but is forming, would confirm around the 153 level, and if it would there would be a fall of approximately 200 more pips after the initial 200 pip fall (or it may turn into an triangle), Is it also at a nested doll?

This is a countertrend/w-trend trade, but looks pretty good so far. It's a grey area for me. Since it blew through the 21 ema, it the ema's crossed and it went directly to the 89, are we currently still in a downtrend because we're below the 89? If so, what does it mean that the 8 is above the 21? This happned previously also, and I considered that once it hit the 89 and got rejected we were back in the downtrend mood.

New release soon

Thoughts?
DireXiv Make it happen, no one else is going to do it for you...
  • #2,611
  • Mar 15, 2007 5:55am Mar 15, 2007 5:55am
Dire,

I got a trend line drawn off of tops 2/26 8:00 candle & 2/27 0:00 candle. It has to come thru this first. We will know by 9 EST. Here is what I got.

J
Attached Image
  • #2,612
  • Mar 15, 2007 6:07am Mar 15, 2007 6:07am
Quoting DireXiv
You are correct. However for me, it is already at the 21/8 ema, this pair has been ranging so the ema's haven't meant too much though, the ema's are very close and there is cpi/ppi news coming out in about 1 hour?

I also took the eur/usd trade except I entered about 7 hours ago, pulled 16 pips on first tp, and missed my second by one pip, so closed manually at 14 total of 30 pips.

Time zones - I live on east coast, and have similar views. Fortunately I can trade while at work, but I would also agree that most of the signals I take are not during major trading hours. If you think about it, to get a nice MACD curl the price needs to not move very much at that curl point, and still be far enough above or below the 21/8ema to have good R:R. So, that comes quite a bit between major trading hours. Just my take.

Hi, do you think the GBP/USD could be a Trend continue upwards?
  • #2,613
  • Mar 15, 2007 6:12am Mar 15, 2007 6:12am
Thanks HH1, I "tuned" my tl's accordingly and have one approximately where you do, maybe a tiny bit lower. They were just market rhythm lines from the past

To be honest, with this pair anything can happen. I haven't traded it since march 6th, when it started this crazy ranging with the 21 and 8 ema's continually crossing each other. There have been very little true signs recently that would have provided enough time to get in before the move it over. Also, I believe the coming news release will keep it right about where it is

I may not be the right person to ask right now since I havent' like the pair for a bit. Just my 2 cents on what I'm seeing.

Quoting chenkz
Hi, do you think the GBP/USD could be a Trend continue upwards?
DireXiv Make it happen, no one else is going to do it for you...
  • #2,614
  • Mar 15, 2007 6:12am Mar 15, 2007 6:12am
These news releases have been known to respect these trend lines. Use not to direct your trade, only food for thought!

J
  • #2,615
  • Mar 15, 2007 6:17am Mar 15, 2007 6:17am
this pair is also in the process of forming a beautiful RT. will see in the next few candles..
  • #2,616
  • Mar 15, 2007 6:20am Mar 15, 2007 6:20am
Firts of all, thanks everybody for patiently reading my whining and complaining, and for all your good ideas on what to do about it. I am alreaady doing many of those things...and it was just releasing a little vapor after seeing so much horizontal movement in my charts. But hey!!! we have to adapt to our partular circumstances and do what we have to do!!!

Regarding my trades...I don't see much in the Euro/us or the Gbp/us. The euro might find some resistance at the 3200 level. So I will hold until it breaks that supportand the MACD crosses the zero line before going short, or for a bounce back with a TC pattern to the long.

Cable...rangy ranger!!! The MACD is stucked between the zero and 15 levels!!!! What will shake this pair and force it to get moving?

Eur/jpy: nice analysis Dire. I see at least three dojis there. Lots of indecision. I agree with you....if it drops it will drop big time. But I will wait for the confirmations: MACD (there are still 220+ mins. for my red bar to close, indicating the beginning of the RT), crossing of that descending trendline to the south, and a TC from the 1 hr.

Just my take...from a frustrated but eager east coaster!!!
  • #2,617
  • Mar 15, 2007 6:33am Mar 15, 2007 6:33am
Quoting Palmer
Just chiming in here...Looks like the E$ might be trying to fro another 'weak' rt. By, weak I mean the last few rt's were breaks down to the 21ma then back up. So, if another rt forms this may be another bounce of the 21 back to the long side...
great call Palmer, where do you think eur$ is headed?
  • #2,618
  • Mar 15, 2007 6:55am Mar 15, 2007 6:55am
Quoting alcastro
Regarding my trades...I don't see much in the Euro/us or the Gbp/us. The euro might find some resistance at the 3200 level. So I will hold until it breaks that supportand the MACD crosses the zero line before going short, or for a bounce back with a TC pattern to the long.
Went long Eur at 1.3107
Reasons: 1) price bounced off bottom t/l and 21ema on 4hr in an uptrend
2) 1hr chart has very nice hammer followed by doji
3) 15min chart had 1-2-3 bottom pattern
4) price action seems to be doing the same as yesterday(london session pushed price down before shooting up for US session)
5) R:R was good...only 20-25pip s/l needed for possible 25pip gain(or more if price breaks upper t/l.
6) I normally look at MIG data, but I also look at interbank for a backup&different perspective...nice "tail" candle just formed on 4hr interbank data chart.

I know MACD hasn't given a buy signal yet, but I couldn't pass up this good of an entry point "if" price does break up and MACD confirms. If the short traders win, then I only have a small s/l.
  • #2,619
  • Edited 7:09am Mar 15, 2007 7:08am | Edited 7:09am
alcastro:

I did just that for several months. I live in the CST USA and would wake up at 2am for the London open. I was trading with pivots/MACD/ and a few candle formations;this was about three years ago. I basically tripled my account in about 4 months. But, the hours were killing me when I went to my 'normal' 9 to 5 job. I was extrememly exhausted around 1pm or so and had to give that up. I'm hoping this 4hr method will be a little more forgiving. So far, so good.

Good trades...

Just saw your post ozeeke: yup, that's exactly what happened. Unfortunately I was in zzz land...
  • #2,620
  • Mar 15, 2007 7:13am Mar 15, 2007 7:13am
Quoting Palmer
Just chiming in here...Looks like the E$ might be trying to fro another 'weak' rt. By, weak I mean the last few rt's were breaks down to the 21ma then back up. So, if another rt forms this may be another bounce of the 21 back to the long side...

I concur!

And may the pips also be with you!
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