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Shakesfx GBP/ JPY Parabolic SAR. Nothing more, nothing less

  • #61
  • Jan 3, 2009 3:27pm Jan 3, 2009 3:27pm
Quoting botadufig05
The beauty of PSAR is that it works on all pairs. I use it on any pair that catch my fancy, that is when the set up is right.
I do the same...But from now on, I dont enter at exactly at the close of the day...I do it after some confirmation
  • #62
  • Jan 3, 2009 8:44pm Jan 3, 2009 8:44pm
hi, if only base on parabolic sar...wouldnt it be more higher risk ?? sorry to be abit negative.
  • #63
  • Jan 4, 2009 1:00am Jan 4, 2009 1:00am
Jim,

Trading fx is risky.

Cheers
  • #64
  • Jan 4, 2009 4:55am Jan 4, 2009 4:55am
Quoting shakesfx
NZD/USD Trend change or about to range?

Checking through a few other pairs, heres a very good example of where we would have entered a trade on the 24/12/08.
The NZD/USD showed a reversal weekly SAR, during the second week whilst the second weekly SAR was printing (as we know the first weekly SAR could repaint on the other side...by waiting till the second week we have better confirmation).
[size=3][font=Calibri]We then check the daily and 4hrs SAR’s for a decent entry point...
Hi

If you entered the long trade on the 24th Dec based on 4hr psar, it would have got you out of your long on the 29th Dec as I see on your chart.

Of course if you had entered your long on the 9th Dec based on daily psar without any notice to 4 hr you should still be in the long trade with a few hundred pips profit.

That is where we should decide whether to use 4 hr psar or daily psar only in the direction of weekly.

Is this not correct?
Regards
  • #65
  • Jan 4, 2009 5:09am Jan 4, 2009 5:09am
Howard,

In 9 December you couldn't go long because the weekly psar was not allingned for a long... Only in 24 Dec you could enter....

Regarding the stoploss....i think we can entry into a trade based of a 4 h psar confirmation and remain with the sl at the daily psar...

Just my oppinion
  • #66
  • Jan 4, 2009 5:42am Jan 4, 2009 5:42am
Quoting sebytim
Howard,

In 9 December you couldn't go long because the weekly psar was not allingned for a long... Only in 24 Dec you could enter....

Regarding the stoploss....i think we can entry into a trade based of a 4 h psar confirmation and remain with the sl at the daily psar...

Just my oppinion
That is correct, weekly and daily were aligned on the 13th Dec, so entry based on daily psar should have been on the 13th
Regards
  • #67
  • Jan 4, 2009 5:51am Jan 4, 2009 5:51am
Quoting howard
Hi

If you entered the long trade on the 24th Dec based on 4hr psar, it would have got you out of your long on the 29th Dec as I see on your chart.

Of course if you had entered your long on the 9th Dec based on daily psar without any notice to 4 hr you should still be in the long trade with a few hundred pips profit.

That is where we should decide whether to use 4 hr psar or daily psar only in the direction of weekly.

Is this not correct?
Hi Howard,
The 4hr entry is only to fine tune an entry point trying to avoid initial large drawdown’s before the trade settles into profit. We use the 4hr to enter IF the daily AND weekly are in the correct direction. After the trade has commenced, we use the Daily SAR level as a SL and to reverse (again if the SARs are in agreement.)
On the NZD/USD Chart we have the following:
1. Weekly SAR and Daily SAR are showing downtrend and therefore we should not take the BUY signal shown on Daily SAR unless in agreement.

2. New Weekly SAR paints on opposite side showing possible new trend.

3. At point 3. We still should not enter the trade until the Weekly SAR has completed, this historically avoids a possible repainting in the original direction.

4. At point 4. We have the following:
1st Weekly SAR has completed.
Daily SAR is in continuation and in agreement
4hrs SAR has changed from SELL to BUY and we enter on the second 4hr SAR dot.

By entering at point 4. We can use a smaller SL as we are near the Daily SAR, and therefore less risk.

We could not have entered a long trade on the 9th Dec as this would have been against the direction of the Weekly SAR at the time and price may have continued in the orginal downtrend resulting in a loss. During backtesting we see that taking Daily trades against the Weekly SAR incur frequent loses and B/E trades, by trading with the Weekly SAR these are minimised and more profit is utilised.

Hope this helps

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  • #68
  • Jan 4, 2009 6:16am Jan 4, 2009 6:16am
Quoting sebytim
Jim,

Trading fx is risky.

Cheers
LOL.

Just when you think you have the target in your sights, just when you think "YES!!" and pull the trigger OR don't pull the trigger, FX always has a surprise. Always.

This picture sums it up for me. Anyway, must get back to my manual backtesting.
Attached Image
  • #69
  • Jan 4, 2009 6:19am Jan 4, 2009 6:19am
Quoting shakesfx
LOL.

Just when you think you have the target in your sights, just when you think "YES!!" and pull the trigger OR don't pull the trigger, FX always has a surprise. Always.

This picture sums it up for me. Anyway, must get back to my manual backtesting.
Nice one.
  • #70
  • Edited 8:02am Jan 4, 2009 7:33am | Edited 8:02am
Im going to be away for a couple of days, so here’s a brief summary of trades placed so far using this SAR system (Weekly, Daily and 4hourly PSAR’s in confirmation)

(SL to be reduced each day to new Daily SAR position, TP when Daily PSAR reverses)


GBP/USD SELL @ 1.4499 SL 1.5091 (-47 on Jan 4th)

EUR/JPY BUY @ 127.66 SL 124.94 (+16 on Jan 4th)

NZD/USD BUY @ 0.5767 SL 0.5731 (+90 on Jan 4th)


Cheers

PS I have edited the first page of this thread as this system is now being used for all pairs with a 4hr entry into the Daily and Weekly trend.


These are not trade recommendations. Trade what you see, not what I say!
  • #71
  • Jan 4, 2009 8:08am Jan 4, 2009 8:08am
Hello to Shakesfx and all.
First of all, thanks for sharing your ideas with us.

One question:I perfectly understand the entry points but I cannot understand how do you set the stop loss value.

Thanks,

Oblo
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  • #72
  • Jan 4, 2009 8:29am Jan 4, 2009 8:29am
Quoting oblo
Hello to Shakesfx and all.
First of all, thanks for sharing your ideas with us.

One question:I perfectly understand the entry points but I cannot understand how do you set the stop loss value.

Thanks,

Oblo
Looks like we are in different time zones...my Chart has already printed Friday's Daily SAR Level which is also our SL level. Hope this helps
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  • #73
  • Jan 4, 2009 10:14am Jan 4, 2009 10:14am
Quoting shakesfx
NZD/USD Trend change or about to range?

Checking through a few other pairs, heres a very good example of where we would have entered a trade on the 24/12/08.
The NZD/USD showed a reversal weekly SAR, during the second week whilst the second weekly SAR was printing (as we know the first weekly SAR could repaint on the other side...by waiting till the second week we have better confirmation).
[size=3][font=Calibri]We then check the daily and 4hrs SAR’s for a decent entry point...

Hi Shakefx, I just happen to notice that your chart of 12/24/08 at 8:00 is oppisite of my chart at that date and time. My chart is from a DEMO account I wonder why our PSARS are different from one and another.

Also a question on another topic. How do you guys post pictures the way you do? I only know how to post them by using a word document can you tell me how accomplish this.

Thanks Zseventy1
Attached File(s)
File Type: doc nzdusd 12-24-08 chart.doc   211 KB | 516 downloads
  • #74
  • Jan 4, 2009 10:15am Jan 4, 2009 10:15am
Quoting shakesfx
Im going to be away for a couple of days, so here’s a brief summary of trades placed so far using this SAR system (Weekly, Daily and 4hourly PSAR’s in confirmation)

(SL to be reduced each day to new Daily SAR position, TP when Daily PSAR reverses)


GBP/USD SELL @ 1.4499 SL 1.5091 (-47 on Jan 4th)

[size=3][font=Calibri][b]EUR/JPY BUY @ 127.66...
I was wondering which is better? Using daily SAR for both SL and TP versus the use of the 4 hr SAR?
  • #75
  • Jan 4, 2009 10:42am Jan 4, 2009 10:42am
Quoting shakesfx
Looks like we are in different time zones...my Chart has already printed Friday's Daily SAR Level which is also our SL level. Hope this helps
Got it, thanks.

Well, the dots displayed are friday's daily sar. Probably we have two different brokers. So my stoploss will be at 1.5188 ... nearly 100 pips far away from your stop loss...how come!?

r.
  • #76
  • Edited 11:21pm Jan 4, 2009 10:53pm | Edited 11:21pm
Morning everybody.Just see the charts & take one short in gbpusd as down sar in H4,D1 & w1 & not seem any chance of repainting , anything can happen though this time , sl 300pips & daily candle also down.

also use other indicator ,mtf stoches , to see the prospects of the order open .
fontu

Similarly taking long trade on audusd , though daily down candle but I see sharp angle in trigger m5 in other indicator of mtf stoches .

Using other indicators are not as per but see trades as of old habbits & hope no ofense.
INTERESTING PART IS THAT AU & GU MOSTLY FOLLOW EACH OTHER BUT HERE I TOOK OPPOSIT LONG TERM TRADES , HOPE OTHERS JUDGE ANY VALIDITY OF THEM .
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Not understand?better not follow my analyses!doubt clearer first, risks ++
  • #77
  • Jan 5, 2009 4:07am Jan 5, 2009 4:07am
Hi Guys,

if I understood the last several posts, these are the criterions for a valid entry using 4H:

1. Weekly PSAR confirmed in a direction (a week close and the next week begin is the same)

2. Daily PSAR is the same direction as weekly, and confirmed

3. 4H PSAR changed from opposite to same direction as daily and weekly, and confirmed (at that confirmation should we enter a trade)

4. SL is the daily PSAR

5. TP: ??? change of the 4H PSAR? change of the daily PSAR?


Tell me, if I am wrong in something...:-)
  • #78
  • Jan 5, 2009 7:41am Jan 5, 2009 7:41am
Quoting uafx
Hi Guys,

if I understood the last several posts, these are the criterions for a valid entry using 4H:

1. Weekly PSAR confirmed in a direction (a week close and the next week begin is the same)

2. Daily PSAR is the same direction as weekly, and confirmed

3. 4H PSAR changed from opposite to same direction as daily and weekly, and confirmed (at that confirmation should we enter a trade)

4. SL is the daily PSAR

5. TP: ??? change of the 4H PSAR? change of the daily PSAR?


Tell me, if I am wrong in something...:-)
5th :
"If reversal SAR appears, DO NOT exit trade until completion of THAT daily candle, this is to ensure that this is a definite reversal signal as sometimes the SAR dot can repaint itself in the opposite direction. When this candle is complete and the next daily candle appears EXIT THE TRADE."

daily reversal sar & confirm & do so wait for the daily candle to complete & next daily just appear also in that reverse direction , tp .

Others ok. H4 only to fine tuning to open a confirmed trade signal as above & then forget it.
thanks .
fontu
Not understand?better not follow my analyses!doubt clearer first, risks ++
  • #79
  • Jan 5, 2009 7:49am Jan 5, 2009 7:49am
Quoting fontu
5th :
"If reversal SAR appears, DO NOT exit trade until completion of THAT daily candle, this is to ensure that this is a definite reversal signal as sometimes the SAR dot can repaint itself in the opposite direction. When this candle is complete and the next daily candle appears EXIT THE TRADE."

daily reversal sar & confirm & do so wait for the daily candle to complete & next daily just appear also in that reverse direction , tp .

[size=3]Others ok. H4 only to fine tuning to open a confirmed trade signal as...
OK, it's clear now. Thank you very much. :-)
  • #80
  • Jan 5, 2009 7:58am Jan 5, 2009 7:58am
Quoting uafx
OK, it's clear now. Thank you very much. :-)
Thanks uafx , me also trying this long term trading system ,very promising for myself to avoid any noise but still to develop that much patience .

open in the morning , recheck in between & as I see some profit took them as of habbit & access internet frequently.

fontu
Not understand?better not follow my analyses!doubt clearer first, risks ++
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