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Attachments: 100% Sure Win but only in trending n ranging.
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100% Sure Win but only in trending n ranging.

  • #41
  • Jan 3, 2009 1:59am Jan 3, 2009 1:59am
Quoting Ronald Raygun
Well...when the market isn't trending, it's ranging right? And when the market isn't ranging, it's trending, right?
its not that simple........sometimes the market can counter trend for a while and then resume the trend.
look at E/U and we`re still not sure where its going!
  • #42
  • Jan 3, 2009 2:22am Jan 3, 2009 2:22am
Quoting Holypendant
You have mention that by looking at it, my system wont works. since you welcome me to contact you, would you be kind hearted enough to tell me wat went wrong in detail. coz right now, i survived sub prime, and the financial crisis saga...
Let's start at the beginning shall we.

-The thread title. "100% Sure Win but only in trending n ranging"

100% SURE win? Really? Nobody has that. That really rubbed me the wrong way.

Quoting Holypendant
Till day, this system was able to generate consistent profit for me about 2% per month.
Quoting Holypendant
in year 2007, i'm able to achieve a return of minimum 30% return every month. but wheneve it reverse trend, everything is wipe out.
So is it 2% or is it 30% every month? I'm confused. And if everything is wiped out as you mentioned, how did you survive the subprime and financial crisis saga as you claim?

Quoting Holypendant
Kindly fill ur input in telling me in what ways, events, or market condition that my system will fail.so far i come out with own scenerio is that this system will failed badly if price goes up 2000pips and down 2000pips and up 2000 pips and down 2000pips. and is down trend vice versa. in this way, yes my system will generating be loss but not margin CALL...
It seems that you don't have a way to determine the market direction. How do you decide if you're long or short?

It doesn't have to fluctuate 2000 pips in one direction or another. The fact that you don't use a Stop Loss is just suicide. All you need is to have a loss a sufficient number of times to be in real trouble.
Not all sins are created equal
  • #43
  • Jan 3, 2009 2:34am Jan 3, 2009 2:34am
Jay,

like you say: you better start at the beginning

for long/short and hard stop, read post 21
  • #44
  • Jan 3, 2009 2:39am Jan 3, 2009 2:39am
Quoting yonnie
Jay,

like you say: you better start at the beginning

for long/short and hard stop, read post 21
Fair enough.

I saw post #6

Quoting Holypendant
i'm using MA of 4,13,and 50 on daily chart crossover... no stop loss will be place....
It only adds to the confusion. So maybe Holypendant can shed some light on which it actually is.
Not all sins are created equal
  • #45
  • Edited 3:36am Jan 3, 2009 3:01am | Edited 3:36am
some other musings

why did you decide to trade G/J?

if it was me, I would look for a pair, which trend has been the most reliable in the past, because every change in trend is going to cost you an enormous amount of money.

a trend should last at least a couple of years.

so which pairs would be the most reliable trendwise?

and remember that you`re not wedded to 1 pair.
once your stop loss has been hit, you could look for another pair with a better trend/range.

wonder if your system is actually more suitable for the stockmarket, where you have 5-6 years where price is slowly increasing??????????
  • #46
  • Jan 3, 2009 4:46am Jan 3, 2009 4:46am
I looked at a few markets for the years 2003-mid 2007

largest swings in those years percentage wise:

for EUR/USD 14.8%
DOW 9.7%
Nasdaq100 18.8%
S&P500 8.9%
FTSE 10.9%
Nikkei 20%

so in hindsight it would have been best to trade the S&P500 and a SL of 9%
below the highest price would have kept you in from 2003 till mid 2007 and NEVER experience a loss.
  • #47
  • Edited 12:14pm Jan 3, 2009 12:04pm | Edited 12:14pm
just remembered that I did a manual test on E/U about 6 months ago for the trending period December 2005 - December 2007.

bought every 00 and 50 and sold every 50 and 00.
price first had to retrace 25 pips before I would buy.
this was designed to have fewer trades when price collapsed and hits my SL.

the overall result was a bit disappointing. yes, I made a profit if I start at the beginning of the trend.

a big disadvantage is that when price follows the trend/range, you`re only in with 1 contract, but as soon as price hits the SL, you`re in trouble with 10 contracts.

another thing is that you`re better off with a ranging market that retraces small and often. a market that is trending strongly will quickly get to a point of a large reversal.

during backtesting of E/U I noticed that during those 2 years price always retraced around 500 pips apart from November 2007 and onwards because of the increasing volatility.

if I had to design a strategy for E/U after the volatility settles, I would place all my buys around 450 pips from the highest price and SL 600 pips away.
in that way my buys are not too far from the SL and I have the same number of contracts to profit from when the price goes up or loss when down.
  • #48
  • Jan 3, 2009 1:39pm Jan 3, 2009 1:39pm
instead of 100% sure wins title - you could change it to stone soup Holy. You have 4, 13, 50 as you ma with no stop loss. How about stay with your 4, 13 ma on a 1H, add bolli bands, MacD 9,21,6, confirm with Fast S 24,12. Secure your profits with a tight sl as the RSI becomes oversold. Your candles should test the 13dma but not violate it by closing above - if they close above - more then likely the price has touched the bottom bolli and is now moving across the bollies to the top bolli. There are way more inticacies for patterns, candlestick paterns, news and human factors then the basics above but this might make the soup taste better - as for long term trends, the markets are too volatile and require a shorter trading time
  • #49
  • Jan 3, 2009 6:24pm Jan 3, 2009 6:24pm
in this thread it proves it again

people dont seem to be able to read properly before jumping to conclusions............

100% sure win but only in trending n ranging?

sure thing, the thread starter is 100% correct!

the only question is: will that market only trend or range?

it might do that for a while, but eventually there will be a trend change
and he will have to sell his positions for a big loss.
hopefully he will have made enough profit to cover this.
  • #50
  • Jan 4, 2009 8:21am Jan 4, 2009 8:21am
Hi All, i duno how to quote from so many of u so i juz try to reply watever i can remember on wat u all asked me.

1st, i had few acct running to test the which is better performing. the 30% per mth return got blowup but where as now the 2% per mth return still survive.

2nd hard stoploss at 1100pips was to prevent a sudden chge of trend too quick that unable for us to react.

3rdly, i only use 4 13 50 ema is because trading shld be kept as simple as possible...

4th, no stop loss will be place on every opened position only 1 hard stoploss...

5th, I trade only on G/Y is becoz it is violatile enough. we can TP at least once everyday,

6th, i only TP 50pips is becoz as G/Y is violatile, we can be sure that TP 50 is not a prob...

7th, yonnie, regarding ur post saying u duno where E/U is going, i would cont to trade up trend since 14DEC as my chart say so..


hope i clarify all question.. if not, please post ur question again..
  • #51
  • Jan 4, 2009 3:58pm Jan 4, 2009 3:58pm
Quoting Holypendant

6th, i only TP 50pips is becoz as G/Y is violatile, we can be sure that TP 50 is not a prob...
I dont agree with this statement at all
what you are doing is limiting your winnings, instead of letting the market decide what it wants to give you.

trading is all about limiting your losses and letting your winning trades run.

as your are trading only 1 pair, it should be not too difficult to devise the right exit strategy ie with a trailing stop of 50 pips or close half position at 50 pips profit and trail the other half.
it will be the big runners that will give you the most profit.
  • #52
  • Jan 5, 2009 4:47am Jan 5, 2009 4:47am
Quoting yonnie
I dont agree with this statement at all
what you are doing is limiting your winnings, instead of letting the market decide what it wants to give you.

trading is all about limiting your losses and letting your winning trades run.

as your are trading only 1 pair, it should be not too difficult to devise the right exit strategy ie with a trailing stop of 50 pips or close half position at 50 pips profit and trail the other half.
it will be the big runners that will give you the most profit.

u r right.. but we nvr know where the price will head to.. of coz u can adjust it or modify it to suit u.. coz i'm averaging mthly between 3000- 5000 pips.. haha.. i tink is more than enough...
imagine when the account is real big with 1 pip $10
  • #53
  • Jan 5, 2009 4:11pm Jan 5, 2009 4:11pm
it is true we never know where the price will go.
having said that, it would be quite easy to look in the past to determine what would have been the best exit strategy and more than likely price will behave in a similar way in the future.

and like you say: we never know where price will head to.

would that not be more reason to get out of the good times as much as possible (just with a little bit of work) for when the bad times roll around as they will?
  • #54
  • Jan 5, 2009 4:40pm Jan 5, 2009 4:40pm
holypendant,

could you tell in detail how you use the 4/13/50 ema?

would it be like:
I buy when 4 ema is above 13 ema and 13 ema is above 50 ema

I sell all my long positions when 4 ema drops under 13 ema

I short when 4 and 13 ema are under 50 ema

I sell my short positions when 4 ema goes up through 50 ema

I do nothing when 4 ema is under 13 ema, but above 50 ema

thanks for your help
  • #55
  • Jan 6, 2009 1:14am Jan 6, 2009 1:14am
Quoting yonnie
holypendant,

could you tell in detail how you use the 4/13/50 ema?

would it be like:
I buy when 4 ema is above 13 ema and 13 ema is above 50 ema

I sell all my long positions when 4 ema drops under 13 ema

I short when 4 and 13 ema are under 50 ema

I sell my short positions when 4 ema goes up through 50 ema

I do nothing when 4 ema is under 13 ema, but above 50 ema

thanks for your help

when 4 13 50 ema cross up, mean set all long position..

when 4 13 50 ema cross down, means set all short position.

if u haf long position den ema cross down, close up all long with losses and start all short..

when u reverse ur position rite, lets say from long den to short, ur short position shld be set 0.3% per lot size.. this is to cover losses from the long faster.. and then when u had recover losses, switch it back to 0.1%..
  • #56
  • Jan 6, 2009 3:36am Jan 6, 2009 3:36am
Quoting Holypendant
when 4 13 50 ema cross up, mean set all long position
I dont know what you mean by 4 13 50 ema cross up.

could you explain that very detailed, maybe with a chart?

thanks for your help
  • #57
  • Jan 7, 2009 4:50am Jan 7, 2009 4:50am
Quoting yonnie
I dont know what you mean by 4 13 50 ema cross up.

could you explain that very detailed, maybe with a chart?

thanks for your help
hi.. i cant attach the graph.. duno why it dun allow.. when ema line from top 1st line is 4,
middle line is 13,
bottom line is 50,

it's uptrend..

when top line is 50
middle line is 13
bottom is 4,

it's down trend..

i got this idea from MA corssover technique but this 3 period number is i come out with after much testing to see which is more accurate to the market..

do u know the MA sign 'W' and 'M' ???
  • #58
  • Jan 7, 2009 5:14am Jan 7, 2009 5:14am
sorry, dont know W and M

I understand what you`re saying about the uptrend and the downtrend.

but what happens in all the cross over scenario`s?

4 ema crosses 13 ema, but 50 ema is still be low the two?

4 ema crosses 50, but 13ema is still above 50 ema?

4 ema is below 50 and now 13 ema crosses 50 ema?

do you know of a thread or article that explains what to do?

thanks
  • #59
  • Jan 8, 2009 12:30am Jan 8, 2009 12:30am
Quoting yonnie
sorry, dont know W and M

I understand what you`re saying about the uptrend and the downtrend.

but what happens in all the cross over scenario`s?

4 ema crosses 13 ema, but 50 ema is still be low the two?

4 ema crosses 50, but 13ema is still above 50 ema?

4 ema is below 50 and now 13 ema crosses 50 ema?

do you know of a thread or article that explains what to do?

thanks
hope this helps...
http://www.chartnexus.com/learning/s...es_apr2007.pdf

instead of 2 ema which show in the website, i'm using 3. so 3 line muz be cross.. if 50 remain downtrend but 4 cross 13 to up trend, dun do anything.. it may be noise..

we r looking for major trend here...
  • #60
  • Jan 8, 2009 2:55am Jan 8, 2009 2:55am
thanks for clarifying

I dont think the 4ema serves any purpose.... in a ranging market it looks like the 4 and 13 ema will cross often and you will not take any action.

so what is the use of the 4 ema?

wouldnt it be better to just have 2 ema`s instead of 3?

you could even have only the 50 ema and buy when price is above 50 ema and sell when price is under 50 ema. what do you think?
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