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4 Hour Strategy (MACD)

  • #2,581
  • Mar 14, 2007 7:23pm Mar 14, 2007 7:23pm
that's 'form' another 'weak' rt. Not, fro, as in "Damn look at that fro!"
  • #2,582
  • Mar 14, 2007 7:25pm Mar 14, 2007 7:25pm
Quoting chenkz
Hi Baddison, Thank you for your reply. Could you please show me the way of setting the AccuCharts?.

Thanks.
Hey Chenkz, I would be happy to assist you. In an effort not to "hijack" or "derail" this thread, please click on my profile and send me an email. I will send you instructions and screen shots to set up your accu-charts for Philip's 4Hr strategy. Thanks.
  • #2,583
  • Mar 14, 2007 7:29pm Mar 14, 2007 7:29pm
Quoting chenkz
Hi Baddison, Thank you for your reply. Could you please show me the way of setting the AccuCharts?.

Thanks.
Hey Chenkz, I would be happy to assist you. In an effort not to "hijack" or "derail" this thread, please click on my profile and send me an email. I will send you instructions and screen shots to set up your accu-charts for Philip's 4Hr strategy. Thanks.
  • #2,584
  • Mar 14, 2007 7:36pm Mar 14, 2007 7:36pm
Quoting baddison
Hey Chenkz, I would be happy to assist you. In an effort not to "hijack" or "derail" this thread, please click on my profile and send me an email. I will send you instructions and screen shots to set up your accu-charts for Philip's 4Hr strategy. Thanks.
Thanks man! I've sent you the email.
  • #2,585
  • Mar 14, 2007 8:19pm Mar 14, 2007 8:19pm
Just as a general note I had to close my trade station for today once I noticed I started to make a series of wrong trade decisions:

1). My usd/jpy long trade was a correct set-up from the very beginning. I exited early because I was tired and made a mistake by going against my plan.

2). I did not see aud/usd reversal in the making when the price jumped out of the triangle and I did not act based on this price action.

When this happens I have to stay from the market. Sorry for the delay with answers - I will respond to all questions. Yours, T.
  • #2,586
  • Mar 14, 2007 8:23pm Mar 14, 2007 8:23pm
[quote=fxhermit;244343]
Quoting pips4uandme
Hi FXHermit!

I have a stupid question....what does an inside bar mean? Is it a sign of indecision w/the market? is it like an inside day? Am I way off base? Thank you soooo much for helping me understand!
quote]

An inside bar is a price bar that opens and closes within the price action of the previous bar - you are correct in saying that it is an inside day when it occurs in the daily time frame (see attached chart). They can and do occur in any time frame but seem to be more reliable in the longer time frames. They are generally traded as breakouts from either the high or low of the bar. When they occur at support/resistance they are often the start of a substantial price move. When I see one form in conjunction with the MACD confirmation in the 4 hour time frame I am usually more confident that a true trend change or round bottom/round top is happening rather than a trend continuation.
Thank you for the great explaination and examples! See what you are talking about and really appreciate the help! Now I'll keep a tight eye on the GBPUSD as we have almost a week of inside days on the daily (with that HUGE candle from last weeks move)!
  • #2,587
  • Mar 14, 2007 8:29pm Mar 14, 2007 8:29pm
Quoting Palmer
Just chiming in here...Looks like the E$ might be trying to fro another 'weak' rt. By, weak I mean the last few rt's were breaks down to the 21ma then back up. So, if another rt forms this may be another bounce of the 21 back to the long side...
Hi Phillip,

I'm using Palmer's chart from post 2281 to ask my question:

Is there an opposite to the 3 little sisters? On the chart for the EURUSD, it looks like 3 big sisters are forming...If we go long after the third little sister, could one go short after the third big sister and have a higher probability of success? (assuming MACD signal is given)

Thank you!

Donna
  • #2,588
  • Mar 14, 2007 8:36pm Mar 14, 2007 8:36pm
Quoting tamkras
Just as a general note I had to close my trade station for today once I noticed I started to make a series of wrong trade decisions:

1). My usd/jpy long trade was a correct set-up from the very beginning. I exited early because I was tired and made a mistake by going against my plan.

2). I did not see aud/usd reversal in the making when the price jumped out of the triangle and I did not act based on this price action.

When this happens I have to stay from the market. Sorry for the delay with answers - I will respond to all questions. Yours, T.
T, I hope one day to even learn enough to know what i do wrong, thanks for your analysys of what went wrong, we all learn a lot from you.
  • #2,589
  • Mar 14, 2007 8:42pm Mar 14, 2007 8:42pm
Quoting tamkras
Just as a general note I had to close my trade station for today once I noticed I started to make a series of wrong trade decisions:

1). My usd/jpy long trade was a correct set-up from the very beginning. I exited early because I was tired and made a mistake by going against my plan.

2). I did not see aud/usd reversal in the making when the price jumped out of the triangle and I did not act based on this price action.

When this happens I have to stay from the market. Sorry for the delay with answers - I will respond to all questions. Yours, T.
You are still Awesome!!! Even more so, b/c you can analyze the situation and make a sane decision.
  • #2,590
  • Mar 14, 2007 8:45pm Mar 14, 2007 8:45pm
Thought I would share a little about what I have learned in terms of money management. I have recently learned that if I properly manage my capital, I can maximize my profits/risk margin per trade. If we calculate our # of lots to trade based on our risk percentile to pips, we can maximize our profits by taking the best trade available at that time. Instead of chasing pips in multiple currencies, we can focus our attention on the best trade. We can take one trade, maximize our risk to profit margin, and make/invest the safest $'s. Gard the capital, establish your number of lots based on your risk profile. Now, of course we could make or lose more by taking multiple trades. We just need to realize we are now risking unsecured capital, capital in trade.
(Capital * risk%) / (#pips stoploss * pip value)= lots for trade
I base my R:R in terms of % of capital risked to reward.
I plug my current price value, stoploss, and target profit into a simple spread sheet that calculates my lots for trade based on my risk profile. It also calculates my R:R so I am able to take the best current trade available.
Hope this info helps.
Chau,
Dionysius
  • #2,591
  • Mar 14, 2007 9:14pm Mar 14, 2007 9:14pm
Quoting pips4uandme
I got this quote from the free forex ebooks website posted earlier in the thread (the quote is from Wayne Gretzky)

"The more I practice, the luckier I get."

Thought this was a great way for us to think of our trading skills and how we learn to exploit opportunities.

Also, Chandra, there were a couple of candlestick documents that looked pretty good....and they were free. Might be worth your time to check them out if you haven't already (it'll save you some cash, which is a good thing!)
Pippy,
Thanks for the information. I have one good one now. Thanks.
-Chandra.
  • #2,592
  • Mar 14, 2007 9:28pm Mar 14, 2007 9:28pm
Quoting HipsterPipster
Thought I would share a little about what I have learned in terms of money management. I have recently learned that if I properly manage my capital, I can maximize my profits/risk margin per trade. If we calculate our # of lots to trade based on our risk percentile to pips, we can maximize our profits by taking the best trade available at that time. Instead of chasing pips in multiple currencies, we can focus our attention on the best trade. We can take one trade, maximize our risk to profit margin, and make/invest the safest $'s. Gard the capital, establish your number of lots based on your risk profile. Now, of course we could make or lose more by taking multiple trades. We just need to realize we are now risking unsecured capital, capital in trade.
(Capital * risk%) / (#pips stoploss * pip value)= lots for trade
I base my R:R in terms of % of capital risked to reward.
I plug my current price value, stoploss, and target profit into a simple spread sheet that calculates my lots for trade based on my risk profile. It also calculates my R:R so I am able to take the best current trade available.
Hope this info helps.
Chau,
Dionysius

Hipster Pispster, your formula is exactly like mine. It has kept me on the game for a while....and lets me enter my trades confidently (if I have made my homework!)
  • #2,593
  • Mar 14, 2007 9:36pm Mar 14, 2007 9:36pm
Quoting alcastro
Hipster Pispster, your formula is exactly like mine. It has kept me on the game for a while....and lets me enter my trades confidently (if I have made my homework!)
Yeah, the homework part is where I need to stay focussed, not chase pips everywhere, but put the money in the best trade. Thanks for the reminder.
  • #2,594
  • Edited 9:53pm Mar 14, 2007 9:52pm | Edited 9:53pm
Quoting pilgrim
I am trying to come up with a few simple rules using Philip's system for myself regarding entries using the EMA's and the MACD signals. If Philip has already come up with something similiar, I'd appreciate if you could tell me where.

Here are my thoughts, these are just rules I am considering for myself to increase probability of entries.

4 hour chart

1. When price is above 89 SMA only take Trend Continuation signals to the long side.

2. When price is below 89 SMA only take Trend Continuation signals to the short side.

3. Take all signals that break up through or down through MACD waterline.

I know I left out the 8/21 EMAs, they could be used as profit targets, stop losses,etc, as Philip said, but I just want to make the entries as simple as possible for filtering out trades that look like round tops and round bottoms but turn into trend continutations.

Any thoughts, Thanks
Hi Pilgrim,
I like your rules. They are simple..no fuss here. Only high probability trades...why increase the risk in an already risky business?
One question though....can you elaborate a little more on #3? Do you mean: go short if the bar crosses the zero line to the south, or long if the MACD crosses the zero line up?
  • #2,595
  • Mar 14, 2007 9:53pm Mar 14, 2007 9:53pm
Price often repeats itself in miniature forms by following the same business cycles. Just as an observation. But a series of striking similarities can not bypass me. What if this is the small replica of bigger W? What is the next move?
Attached Image
  • #2,596
  • Edited Mar 15, 2007 12:16am Mar 14, 2007 10:12pm | Edited Mar 15, 2007 12:16am
Quoting tamkras
Price often repeats itself in miniature forms by following the same business cycles. Just as an observation. But a series of striking similarities can not bypass me. What if this is the small replica of bigger W? What is the next move?
Hi T,

I'm on board w/your scenario (thus my earlier question to Phillip re: 3 big sisters). Looks like we could be in for about a 165 pip move to the downside if leg 5 gets completed. (big W had runup of aprox. 330 pips and 5th leg down about 385 -- math not exact -- from eyeballing chart).

Alcastro,

I see your point too (that's the neat thing about forex, everyone can see something different and trade it accurately). It is possible for the pair to go up again (and tomorrow's TIC release may provide the burst needed). I'm stilll waiting for a sell signal, think more pips will be available to the downside. Only the charts will tell
  • #2,597
  • Mar 14, 2007 10:14pm Mar 14, 2007 10:14pm
Where did Alcastro's post go? The one w/EUR analysis........Weird.......
  • #2,598
  • Mar 14, 2007 10:28pm Mar 14, 2007 10:28pm
Quoting pips4uandme
Where did Alcastro's post go? The one w/EUR analysis........Weird.......

Hi pips, I deleted it because after a very thorough analysis I found out that i was looking at the wrong pair!!!!!!!!
  • #2,599
  • Mar 14, 2007 10:40pm Mar 14, 2007 10:40pm
Ok...here is my frustration with the time zone where I live: I have to work in a 9-5 job until I am able to build a good knowledge base that will give me the confidence to trade for a living (with the free time I so desperately want!!!); and until I have a capital that will allow me to trade the number of lots I need to provide me with the income I require.
That means that I cannot trade between between 8:00 AM and 3:00 PM, when the market moves the most. And If I want a piece of the action I have to wake up at 2:00 AM to trade the London open, and hope that i will catch a good trade that will move fast so that i can go to bed with my stop at least at b/e. or....trade as i do...after 5:00 PM...in a ranging market...with weak MACD signals that at one moment point in one direction and at the other points at the other....and then again at the opposite direction..and the price moves sideways...and you pray for some trend to develop...but nothing!!! (sigh!!!).
Well...here I am...spilling my frustration in this forum!!! Pls excuse this intrussion.
  • #2,600
  • Mar 14, 2007 10:58pm Mar 14, 2007 10:58pm
I live in CST, work the 40 hour week, and have similar frustations ...
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