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EOD trading system

  • #701
  • Dec 30, 2008 8:10am Dec 30, 2008 8:10am
Quoting pipsalot
Just a quick question: the USDJPY gave a signal on Dec 25 and now it looks like it's gonna give another signal today. Is the second signal valid?
is it an indicator or the EA that gave this signal?
  • #702
  • Dec 30, 2008 8:30am Dec 30, 2008 8:30am
Quoting ayour2a
is it an indicator or the EA that gave this signal?
No, I don't use EAs, I'm just looking at the CCI and Stoch.
  • #703
  • Dec 30, 2008 9:14am Dec 30, 2008 9:14am
Quoting howard
Daily bars normally close at 10pm or 11pm GMT (UK time at present) which correspond with 5pm or 6pm EST; trades should be place near close of the bar or at close of the bar.

I place my orders between 9 and 10pm GMT that is between 4 and 5pm EST and as I place limit orders allowing for a % retracement it really does not matter what time they are placed as long as it is towards the close of the bar. and you have a setup.

Thanks for that...
  • #704
  • Dec 30, 2008 9:23am Dec 30, 2008 9:23am
Quoting pipsalot
No, I don't use EAs, I'm just looking at the CCI and Stoch.
No signal for that pair on Alpari UK server. Perhaps you are tracking 4h chart, but EOD is daily chart signal.
  • #705
  • Dec 30, 2008 9:34am Dec 30, 2008 9:34am
Regarding the entry:

Most traders I know, including myself, would regard a retracement past 61.8% on a standard FIB to be a warning of a reversal; and up to 50% retracement as probable.

Of course, nothing is perfect and examples contrary to that can be found.

Therefore, I would look to enter on a 40-50% retrace after a valid signal presents itself.

Gray.
  • #706
  • Dec 30, 2008 10:23am Dec 30, 2008 10:23am
Hi

I started to backtest this first visually and then use the EOD_EA to confirm my figures and found a discrepancy.

Using cable from 01/01/08 to today manually i found 19 signals when i ran the EOD_EA on the the same date ranges i found only 15 signals (21/10, 16/10, 2/6 and 2/5 were missing from the EA)

Any ideas ?

Does the EOD indicator repaint (after 9) ?

Pervaz
  • #707
  • Dec 30, 2008 10:30am Dec 30, 2008 10:30am
Hi dmc,

Glad you followed my advice and came to join us; as someone that has been through the ordeal and pain of FOREX systems, indicators etc. etc. for the last 3 years I hope this thread will save you from that! So far it's profitable; let's hope it continues.

Happy New Year.

Gray.

Quoting dmc
I am trading this in demo fro about 20 days now and am loving it as well. Thanks to Paulus and the rest of the guys who have made improvements along the way. So simple yet effective.

The only thing I am having a hard time deciding is what I shuld put my time frame at. I am in NY but am considering making my trades in UK time. Any insight? should I just make my trade 12am Est time after my daily candle closes?
  • #708
  • Dec 30, 2008 10:34am Dec 30, 2008 10:34am
Hi

If I'm short a particular swap and I get another signal I ignore it as my original is still valid..you will find you get enough signals with opening mutlple signals in the same swap.

If you open your market watch window then select show all you will see all 29 swaps available

Cheers

Paulus
  • #709
  • Edited 10:47am Dec 30, 2008 10:36am | Edited 10:47am
Hi Pervaz,

I did extensive back testing and you can't trust what you see with indicators; not just re-painting but indicator lines move back and forth before they settle, therefore, around borderline entries or big price swings, you will get different resuts live vs back testing.

Most systems backtest really well and fail live; this one doesn't back test as well as it trades live!

Gray.


Quoting Pervaz
Hi

I started to backtest this first visually and then use the EOD_EA to confirm my figures and found a discrepancy.

Using cable from 01/01/08 to today manually i found 19 signals when i ran the EOD_EA on the the same date ranges i found only 15 signals (21/10, 16/10, 2/6 and 2/5 were missing from the EA)

Any ideas ?

Does the EOD indicator repaint (after 9) ?

Pervaz
  • #710
  • Dec 30, 2008 11:00am Dec 30, 2008 11:00am
Quoting gtrade
Hi Pervaz,

I did extensive back testing and you can't trust what you see with indicators; not just re-painting but indicator lines move back and forth before they settle, therefore, around borderline entries or big price swings, you will get different resuts live vs back testing.

Most systems backtest really well and fail live; this one doesn't back test as well as it trades live!

Gray.
Hi Gray

i only use the indicator (EOD_EA) and ATR(5) - nice and simple

i might download vhands or something and check if the indicator repaints

P
  • #711
  • Dec 30, 2008 11:12am Dec 30, 2008 11:12am
Even with vhands you still aren't going to get accurate results.

I've driven myself bonkers testing systems and this one for hours, sometimes 23 hrs per day! Really, the only thing that counts is forward testing.

IMO the best thing to do is to get 2 very good systems with different personalities. What I mean by that is each system will have its months that it does well on and months that it does not so well--its personality. The idea is to aim to get 2 strong systems that do badly on different months and therefore carry each other when necessary and keeping the draw down to a minimum and profit to the maximum.

I say, nothing is perfect and nothing is guaranteed; we can only aim to do our best.

Gray.

I believe that Paul's EOD system is a good candidate for one of those systems.

Quoting Pervaz
Hi Gray

i only use the indicator (EOD_EA) and ATR(5) - nice and simple

i might download vhands or something and check if the indicator repaints

P
  • #712
  • Dec 30, 2008 11:22am Dec 30, 2008 11:22am
gtrade

thanks

I suppose forward testing (which i was doing slowly for the next 2 months)
  • #713
  • Dec 30, 2008 12:11pm Dec 30, 2008 12:11pm
Quoting gtrade
Hi dmc,

Glad you followed my advice and came to join us; as someone that has been through the ordeal and pain of FOREX systems, indicators etc. etc. for the last 3 years I hope this thread will save you from that! So far it's profitable; let's hope it continues.

Happy New Year.

Gray.
Hi gtrade,

I know exactly what you mean about going through the pain. Been there, done that, had about enough of it.

Too much stress... Too much screen time... Not enough living time.

This way of trading is much better. At first, setting larger stops made me nervous, but if you control your risk by trading smaller lots it is actually less risk than smaller TF's with larger lots.

You have to decide at some point whether you are trading for fun and excitement, or to maximize profits.

I can find other ways of having fun...

================

It's fairly easy to backtest this system. Just a little slow and tedious but you can get a fairly good idea how well it can work. I like the results so far.
  • #714
  • Edited 1:07pm Dec 30, 2008 1:06pm | Edited 1:07pm
Quoting Pervaz
Hi

I started to backtest this first visually and then use the EOD_EA to confirm my figures and found a discrepancy.

Using cable from 01/01/08 to today manually i found 19 signals when i ran the EOD_EA on the the same date ranges i found only 15 signals (21/10, 16/10, 2/6 and 2/5 were missing from the EA)

Any ideas ?

Does the EOD indicator repaint (after 9) ?

Pervaz
Update: The (missing) signals do appear in the strategy tester (19 sigs for 2008 for cable) just they were not taken by the EA

So i can carry on backtesting a bit more - I would like to output the EOD values and ATR from 2007 to date (rather than manually putting them in a spreadsheet - any ideas ?)
  • #715
  • Dec 30, 2008 1:18pm Dec 30, 2008 1:18pm
Absolutely.

Gray.



Quoting PistolDave
Hi gtrade,

I know exactly what you mean about going through the pain. Been there, done that, had about enough of it.

Too much stress... Too much screen time... Not enough living time.

This way of trading is much better. At first, setting larger stops made me nervous, but if you control your risk by trading smaller lots it is actually less risk than smaller TF's with larger lots.

You have to decide at some point whether you are trading for fun and excitement, or to maximize profits.

I can find other ways of having fun... ...
  • #716
  • Dec 30, 2008 1:25pm Dec 30, 2008 1:25pm
On FXDD I had a signal for USDJPY for 12/26, which I am still in. Seeing another the next day is just a nice confirmation for me.

As far as the EA, I do have it on one of my demo's and I use what it gives me for manual entry on my live account, however I do not let it take trades for me. I see too many instances where it's throwing a signal when it shouldn't, so I decided to leave it on but not take trades. It's not real hard to go through all these pairs at the end of the day and find the signals and entries manually. Takes about 5-10 mins, I can live with that

By the way, status update from my last trade posting
usdcad closed at SL
eurcad closed at TP

I am not sure I will keep trading usdcad, always feels like the damn thing could go anywhere regardless of how sound my entry logic is these days.
  • #717
  • Edited 2:18pm Dec 30, 2008 1:53pm | Edited 2:18pm
I still can't find a heiken ashi sw anywhere. can someone post it here so i can get the ea to work. thanks

edit: thanks gtrade Answered
  • #718
  • Dec 30, 2008 1:58pm Dec 30, 2008 1:58pm
Quoting Paulus
Hi

If I'm short a particular swap and I get another signal I ignore it as my original is still valid..you will find you get enough signals with opening mutlple signals in the same swap.

If you open your market watch window then select show all you will see all 29 swaps available

Cheers

Paulus
Understood. And if you didn't take the first signal for whatever reason, do you then take the second?
  • #719
  • Dec 30, 2008 2:19pm Dec 30, 2008 2:19pm
As I said in the PM to you; and for the benefit of anyone else that reads this post, you don't need the heiken ashi sw: just put the ea on the chart with the other indicators (atr pips, cci, stoch and EOD IND) and all should be ok.

Gray.



Quoting jtmoore007
I still can't find a heiken ashi sw anywhere. can someone post it here so i can get the ea to work. thanks
  • #720
  • Dec 30, 2008 4:27pm Dec 30, 2008 4:27pm
Tasmann, So far I have backtested by hand, candle by candle the following pairs for 2008. AUD/USD, EUR/JPY, EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, NZD/USD and USD/CAD. I agree with you. All of the pairs made pips except USD/CAD. Thanks for this great system.
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