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Attachments: Shakesfx GBP/ JPY Parabolic SAR. Nothing more, nothing less
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Shakesfx GBP/ JPY Parabolic SAR. Nothing more, nothing less

  • #21
  • Dec 29, 2008 2:51pm Dec 29, 2008 2:51pm
GU just change on weekly to short position and daily is short already.
Should we enter short???
  • #22
  • Dec 29, 2008 2:53pm Dec 29, 2008 2:53pm
Shakesfx, great simple system. A quick question and I hope it makes sense. You check the weekly PSAR every day as well? Do you ever find that on say Monday it says short, Tuesday (because of news) it says long and then on Wednesday it is back to short? Or is weekly long enough to absorb this kind of shift ?
If I understand correctly you take the trade when the first WEEKLY PSAR dot appears and on the start of the second DAILY PSAR dot going in the same direction.

Thanks for the help, keep up the good work.
Pips are like cabbage, the green ones are the tastiest!
  • #23
  • Dec 29, 2008 10:42pm Dec 29, 2008 10:42pm
Shakesfx,

This is a GREAT thread...many thanks!

The weekly and daily PSAR's are both currently in a downward trend. Is it inadvisable to jump in on the trend now? Or is it still possible to pick up some pips until the daily PSAR confirms an exit?

Bob in Wisconsin
  • #24
  • Edited 2:32am Dec 30, 2008 12:49am | Edited 2:32am
Quoting capetown
GU just change on weekly to short position and daily is short already.
Should we enter short???
I see daily candle here is up & weekly down .

My remaining lots closed overnight as I reduced the sl from 300 to 125 only that is very likely to hit in gbpjpy pair . Anyway average 200 pips per lot not bad.
Started with sl 300 pips with total risk of 9000$ and got over 600 $ in just one day .

As the exit signal still not showing take another 3 lots short though D1 showing opposit candle & not as per rule .

Also took shorts in usdchf.
Basically I to take trades at a very late 4gmt ( 8am my time ) rather at the very start of the day candle .

fontu
Not understand?better not follow my analyses!doubt clearer first, risks ++
  • #25
  • Dec 30, 2008 1:17am Dec 30, 2008 1:17am
ShakesFX;

Can you please comment on LaxyPip's observation of the weekly PSAR repainting during the week after you place your trade and how your backtesting could be flawed based on the PSAR repainting?

Thanks in advance,

TimeFreedom

Quoting LazyPip
Yes, it seems so, or perhaps it's the sunday candles which open a few hours earlier/later. I am using the InterbankFX demo platform for testing (also not the broker I use), and it's GMT time, opening sunday candles at 23:00 GMT. I intend to test in this platform to see if I get the same results or maybe slightly better/worse. I've downloaded ODL to compare as well.

---

One other question, how do you deal with entries on trades on the daily chart which are formed before the weekly PSAR is shown? i.e. before the weekly candle is closed. The PSAR...
  • #26
  • Dec 30, 2008 3:56am Dec 30, 2008 3:56am
Shakesfx,

Your thread started out as a GBP/JPY trading strategy. Now, other posters have indicated they are trading your strategy with GBP/USD and USD/CHF, and perhnaps other pairs. Is your strategy specific to G/J or do you sanction its use with other currency pairs? If so, which pairs are valid?

Thanks.
Bob in Wisconsin
  • #27
  • Edited Dec 31, 2008 12:14am Dec 30, 2008 7:20am | Edited Dec 31, 2008 12:14am
Shakesfx,

"3 lots.

SL’s set at -200 Pips.

1st Lot TP at 100 Pips.

2nd At +100 pips, SL moved to B/E, when at 200 pips, then SL moved to lock in 100 pips, allowed to run until reversal PSAR signal.

3rd At +100 pips, SL moved to B/E, when at 200 pips, then SL moved to lock in 100 pips, allowed to run until reversal PSAR signal."

With your "3 lot" model, trades 2 and 3 are the same. So...

1) For simplification, could we simply combine trades 2 and 3? We would, of course, double the lot size compared to trade #1 in order to obtain the same results. This way we would only need to make 2 entries instead of 3 entries.

2) Have you considered setting the Take Profit on trade #2 to 200 pips? Wouldn't this also help to reduce the number of losing trades?

Thanks,
Bob

Whoops! No need to answer these questions. I see in the 1st post you actually do have the 2nd lot trade set at 200 pips. The subsequent posting must have been a typo.
  • #28
  • Dec 30, 2008 9:07am Dec 30, 2008 9:07am
Anybody having problem with psar on weekly chart repaiting during the course of the week please note that you should look at the bar which has already closed and psar dot established on it and take that as your trend direction for entries on the daily chart.

If you look at the current weekly chart for direction nobody knows whether at the end of the week psar dot will be on top or below the bar.
Regards
  • #29
  • Dec 30, 2008 9:45am Dec 30, 2008 9:45am
Quoting shakesfx
Shakesfx GBP/ JPY Parabolic SAR. Nothing more, nothing less.



If reversal SAR appears, DO NOT exit trade until completion of THAT daily candle, this is to ensure that this is a definite reversal signal as sometimes the SAR dot can repaint itself in the opposite direction. When this candle is complete and the next daily candle appears EXIT THE TRADE.

[font=Calibri][size=3]Await the next...

I hope it helps you.
I trade what I see on my charts. Do Not listen to the Muppets.
  • #30
  • Dec 30, 2008 10:11am Dec 30, 2008 10:11am
Yes sometimes I am not following the rules perfectly & so take trade in the morning presuming still not any exit signal & now it shows 100pips in gj pair.
usdchf taken to test also shown positive few minutes back too.

as may check few times a day if take good profit as scalping, profit may raise enough I see.
may close trades of the day when see profit enough & restart next day with good setup .A profit of 20% in 2 days not bad.

fontu
Not understand?better not follow my analyses!doubt clearer first, risks ++
  • #31
  • Dec 30, 2008 9:59pm Dec 30, 2008 9:59pm
Hi everyone I have been following this thread and I have been trying to create a system like this for sometime so when this thread started I was happy to see the intrest and ideals that are coming fourth. Anyways, somone here on FF created this indicator and passed it on to me a little while ago and I would like to pass it on to all of you. I hope you can make some good use of it. The indicator is a Multi-time frame PSAR. You can attach the indicator to the main window several times and go into the inputs and change the time setting to a different times and it will show several PSAR in the same window. For example, if you attached the indicator three times to the main window then you could change the times to show a chart with 4hr, 1 day & 1 week you will then be able to see the three PSAR all in the same window. Remeber that in order for it to work correctly you need to have your chart showing the lowest time frame that you have assigned. I hope this will help you guys.
Attached File(s)
File Type: mq4 #MTF_SARS.mq4   3 KB | 1,383 downloads
File Type: ex4 #MTF_SARS.ex4   3 KB | 977 downloads
  • #32
  • Dec 30, 2008 10:20pm Dec 30, 2008 10:20pm
Here is an example of what a chart looks like with the MTF PSARS attached to it
Attached File(s)
File Type: doc psars.doc   227 KB | 1,120 downloads
  • #33
  • Edited 12:53am Dec 31, 2008 12:32am | Edited 12:53am
Quoting zseventy1
Here is an example of what a chart looks like with the MTF PSARS attached to it
Thanks Zseventy1 for indicator ,certainly help understanding here & overal market situation too.
plotted it on the chart to see, and most interesting to see how the oscilation of small up-down movements created very big movements as seen in m5
Attached Image
Not understand?better not follow my analyses!doubt clearer first, risks ++
  • #34
  • Jan 1, 2009 4:20am Jan 1, 2009 4:20am
Excellent thread

I believe there is a very good chance for this strategy to come out as a winner. If we look at the daily chart for G/J below with the weekly SAR indicator published by zseventy1, we can clearly see how the price actually responds nicely to the indicator.

I think with prpoer money management this system will definetly work.

Thanks Shakesfx for the idea.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: untitled2.jpg Size: 60 KB
  • #35
  • Jan 1, 2009 11:20am Jan 1, 2009 11:20am
Just sitting idle & looking the chart mtf par sar I posted above , it seems h4 with confirmation of D1 & if possible w1 should give more accurate signals and in this case there will be more chances to trade to place . Hope shakesFx will consider h4 in his system in future as daily chart will show up & weekly still down & many days without any signal and exit also from h4 chart ( when consider trades from d1 & h4 alone) or d1 as usual.
Hope he come again in time & give more insights of his system.
fontu
Not understand?better not follow my analyses!doubt clearer first, risks ++
  • #36
  • Jan 1, 2009 5:37pm Jan 1, 2009 5:37pm
Quoting fontu
Just sitting idle & looking the chart mtf par sar I posted above , it seems h4 with confirmation of D1 & if possible w1 should give more accurate signals and in this case there will be more chances to trade to place . Hope shakesFx will consider h4 in his system in future as daily chart will show up & weekly still down & many days without any signal and exit also from h4 chart ( when consider trades from d1 & h4 alone) or d1 as usual.
Hope he come again in time & give more insights of his system.
fontu
Fontu,
I am seeing the same things that you are with the 4 hr PSAR giving the Entry signal. You can go back and see where the 4 hr will allow you to get into the new trend many days in advance as where if you wait for the daily signal the trend has been in motion for awhile. I think the main key to entering on a 4 hr siginal is to be very disciplined on your money managment program. This will be an absolute must. I look forward to where this thread will go.
  • #37
  • Edited 3:53pm Jan 2, 2009 8:53am | Edited 3:53pm
Hello everyone and thanks for your input with this system. Sorry it’s been a while since I have posted. (We had a few problems out here.)

Mister boy,
Thanks for the RSI info. I do not wish to use any other indictors except PSAR. I believe historically that this is consistently profitable without reference to RSI, MACD etc. It’s just the way I think, and should not put anyone off from using other indictors. I truly believe most indictors are worthless. Of course this is my personal opinion and my comments are not meant to offend.
Lazy pip,
You are correct; the trade would not have been placed due to the weekly still showing an uptrend. My mistake. I think it is the only mistake out of the years I have back tested. Even so, it would have resulted in a profitable trade. I am looking at ways to fine tune entry points using the 4hr and will post these in due course (once I’ve seen how accurate they have been historically...unless someone else has already done this and can post for us to see?)
Zseventy1,
Many thanks for your Multi Time Frames SAR; I am using it, very interesting to see the SAR and price action on different time frames. Would you like to show a few examples of the 4hr getting us into the trend early? Are most of those signals true or false entries? The reason I stick to daily and Weekly only is due to their reliability historically. If this can be profitable using the 4hr I’m all ears.
Fontu,
Glad you made some pips using the PSAR, be careful though as its low volume market manipulation time.
Bobcat2,
I would seriously stay out of the market until a reversal dot is shown, and then wait until it agrees with the weekly before entering, especially at the moment as we could be range bound for a while...this system does not like ranges. I only trade G/Y as this pair seems to provide the best results with PSAR with my trading style. I’m sure it works well on the other major pairs too; I haven’t back tested the majors...yet.
I have included charts from 1999 to present showing where the entries would have been using the weekly SAR plotted on the daily chart using zseventy1’s Multitime Frame SAR and just trading the direction of the weekly SAR only....let me know what you think...I can only see mostly winners. The period Nov 03-Aug 05 is missing as I have a few glitches on the MT4 server today for that time period, if someone could post that time period too I would be grateful. PS I havent placed the arrows very well using Paint...the trades would be taken at the end of the first row of reversal sar dots.
Cheers
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 1.gj feb99-nov99.gif Size: 23 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: 2.gj nov99-sept2000.gif Size: 25 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: 3.gj-sept2000-july2001.gif Size: 23 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: 4.gj-july2001-march2002.gif Size: 23 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: 5.gj-march2002-jan2003.gif Size: 26 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: 6.gj-jan2003-nov2003.gif Size: 27 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: 7.gj--aug 05-april06.gif Size: 24 KB
  • #38
  • Jan 2, 2009 8:55am Jan 2, 2009 8:55am
Charts continued...
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 8.gj---april06-dec06.gif Size: 20 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: 9.gj--dec06-july07.gif Size: 22 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: 10.gj--july07-april 08.gif Size: 21 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: 11.gj--april 08-jan09.gif Size: 19 KB
  • #39
  • Edited Jan 3, 2009 2:18am Jan 2, 2009 10:20am | Edited Jan 3, 2009 2:18am
Welcome back shakesfx.
here is the chart you asked
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gumtfs1.gif Size: 7 KB
Not understand?better not follow my analyses!doubt clearer first, risks ++
  • #40
  • Jan 2, 2009 10:31am Jan 2, 2009 10:31am
I have been checking through the different timeframe PSARS. It seems the 1 hrs Chart with a Weekly, Daily and 4hr PSAR looks like the best chart to be working with in my opinion. I am not using the 1hr PSAR on the 1hr as this creates too much noise. I have attached a couple of charts, I think these would have been excellent entries and more trades could be taken by those for whom just a few trades per year are insufficient. I am sure more can be taken off the table using this method, as well as using a much lower Stop Loss. If anyone can post a histogram PSAR with Weekly, Daily and 4hrs it would be appreciated. If anyone has back tested the 4hr entry PSAR, what is your conclusion?
The charts show a couple of trades that would have been taken when the weekly, daily and 4hr are aligned using a single position. The trades are exited when a reversal 4hr SAR is shown.
Happy Trading
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 1.gj-- 1hr with daily and weekly psar.gif Size: 27 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: 2.gj-- 1hr with daily and weekly psar sell and tp.gif Size: 27 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: 3.gj--1hr with daily and weekly psar sell and tp.gif Size: 18 KB
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