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4 Hour Strategy (MACD)

  • #2,541
  • Mar 14, 2007 9:49am Mar 14, 2007 9:49am
Quoting tamkras
The pair is forming a classic triangle within the last five 4HR bars. The previous long bar for me is still within the triangle as it was emotional and can be a precursor sign for another leg down. If you are considering a new position with this pair watch what side of the triangle the price will move out from - it will break out soon.
The triangle was broken to the upside and the price went up quite well. I missed this move. I was wrong in my estimate of the downside potential and I am so much relieved...The market tells me to take a vacation. I am still short with 1 lot and I am not greedy.
  • #2,542
  • Mar 14, 2007 9:54am Mar 14, 2007 9:54am
Quoting fxhermit
If Tamkras is correct then we are perhaps seeing an ABC bottom in the 1 hour. The brave could follow Tamkras with an entry near C, the more conservative an entry at the break of B with another possible entry on the first pullback after B. Also looks like the 4 hour has just printed an inside bar, hmmm very interesting. If Tamkras is wrong, all bets are off .
Your analysis is great and observation of the inside bar was the true thing! I was wrong, my hat is off.
  • #2,543
  • Mar 14, 2007 9:56am Mar 14, 2007 9:56am
Quoting metto
Hi all,
just want to share, this indicator will plot daily ma on 4 hour or lower.
Thanks metto, appreciate the help!
  • #2,544
  • Mar 14, 2007 10:09am Mar 14, 2007 10:09am
Quoting Tw0eleven
Would be if I had taken the trade! hehe Could have gotten in at 116.05, but didn't trust myself or the trade. Have gotten burned too many times on the u/j pair before...lack of confidence. Any way to get over that?
1). When you develop a plan, believe in it and sleep soundly;
2). Never, ever use words 'would have, could have, should have' in your trading scenarios or as part of your after-the-fact analysis. They are like plague contaminating a trader's psychology. They impair your vision and cause you back-pedal on track of success;
3). Put a weekly target and exceed it. Analyse why you failed if you failed. Put everything onto your diary - all your thoughts!
4). Catch the patterns where you succeeded over and over again.
5). Never lose your heart, develop a confidence level that tells you to attack and win!

Tamara
  • #2,545
  • Mar 14, 2007 10:25am Mar 14, 2007 10:25am
Hi guys, i m 30 min more for TF4 hr to close , is that a TC signal in Euro/usd?

thanks
  • #2,546
  • Edited 10:35am Mar 14, 2007 10:33am | Edited 10:35am
Quoting ramshackle
Hi guys, i m 30 min more for TF4 hr to close , is that a TC signal in Euro/usd?

thanks
looks like it ramshackle, 1 hr confirms it too, but where is a good stop loss? below previous candle?
  • #2,547
  • Mar 14, 2007 10:35am Mar 14, 2007 10:35am
Quoting pilgrim
Tam,
got in a little later, waited for the MACD confirm on the 4 hour, followed the rules, but great to see your eyeing the same thing. Went long USD/CHF and USD/JPY on the round bottoms, up on both.

Are you looking at the USD/JPY as more of a long term swing/position trade or do you have any thoughts on targets?

Pilgrim
I am exiting now. The price is stuck on 166.40-50 level. A new market scenario is being developed at this moment and I do not understand it. I need more time. In the meantime I am taking profit.
  • #2,548
  • Mar 14, 2007 10:38am Mar 14, 2007 10:38am
Quoting tamkras
1). When you develop a plan, believe in it and sleep soundly;
2). Never, ever use words 'would have, could have, should have' in your trading scenarios or as part of your after-the-fact analysis. They are like plague contaminating a trader's psychology. They impair your vision and cause you back-pedal on track of success;
3). Put a weekly target and exceed it. Analyse why you failed if you failed. Put everything onto your diary - all your thoughts!
4). Catch the patterns where you succeeded over and over again.
5). Never lose your heart, develop a confidence level that tells you to attack and win!

Tamara
Great Advice Tamara! Thank you!
  • #2,549
  • Mar 14, 2007 10:42am Mar 14, 2007 10:42am
Quoting Tw0eleven
Here's a trade a took last night. It was bed time for me so I used a 50pip stoploss and a 50pip target. When I woke up, price hardly changed but everything still looked good so I left it open while I went to work. When I came home, I found I was plus 50pips in my demo account. Looks like a good system Phil. Hope this post helps someone out in seeing trade setups!
Hi, could you please tell me how to set the MACD parameters.

I am using AccuCharts the default is:-

move1 12
move2 26
trigger 9

I assume the move1 = fast; move2 = slow

I am not sure how to set MACD = 1, coz when I set trigger = 0 there is no MACD bars at all, and i can only see a straight line.

Please advise.
  • #2,550
  • Mar 14, 2007 10:50am Mar 14, 2007 10:50am
Quoting chenkz
Hi, could you please tell me how to set the MACD parameters.

I am using AccuCharts the default is:-

move1 12
move2 26
trigger 9

I assume the move1 = fast; move2 = slow

I am not sure how to set MACD = 1, coz when I set trigger = 0 there is no MACD bars at all, and i can only see a straight line.

Please advise.
Hi, I'm not familiar with AccuCharts....anyone else???
  • #2,551
  • Mar 14, 2007 10:54am Mar 14, 2007 10:54am
Quoting alcastro
TURK,

as you know a round top (short trade) may easily turn into a TC (long trade). The idea is that once you see a RT in the 4hr MACD, when the first red bar has been totally formed, before waiting for the second to complete, you can decide your entry based on the 1 hr. If the 1 hr MACD is showing a TC instead of a RT, then there is a high probability that the 4hR RT will turn into a TC. In this way you can get early into the trade with an additional confirmation.

That is the way i use it. Am I correct?
Hi Al

That is how I do see and use it as well.

Willem
Willem Forex recipe for success = Patience, discipline & hard work.
  • #2,552
  • Mar 14, 2007 11:20am Mar 14, 2007 11:20am
I am trying to come up with a few simple rules using Philip's system for myself regarding entries using the EMA's and the MACD signals. If Philip has already come up with something similiar, I'd appreciate if you could tell me where.

Here are my thoughts, these are just rules I am considering for myself to increase probability of entries.

4 hour chart

1. When price is above 89 SMA only take Trend Continuation signals to the long side.

2. When price is below 89 SMA only take Trend Continuation signals to the short side.

3. Take all signals that break up through or down through MACD waterline.

I know I left out the 8/21 EMAs, they could be used as profit targets, stop losses,etc, as Philip said, but I just want to make the entries as simple as possible for filtering out trades that look like round tops and round bottoms but turn into trend continutations.

Any thoughts, Thanks
  • #2,553
  • Mar 14, 2007 11:24am Mar 14, 2007 11:24am
Quoting chenkz
Hi, could you please tell me how to set the MACD parameters.

I am using AccuCharts the default is:-

move1 12
move2 26
trigger 9

I assume the move1 = fast; move2 = slow

I am not sure how to set MACD = 1, coz when I set trigger = 0 there is no MACD bars at all, and i can only see a straight line.

Please advise.
I would suggest you open a demo account with Alpari or Strategybuilder. Accucharts is FXSolutions own propietary software. I do not like it. If you set the signal line to 1 your histogram disappears. Also they do not have 4 hr charts.
Try the following websites:
www.alpari-idc.ru/en
www.strategybuilder.com

The Metatrader from Alpari has the same time zone as Philip uses , which implies that the charts will look the same.
I hope this helps.
  • #2,554
  • Mar 14, 2007 11:27am Mar 14, 2007 11:27am
Quoting pips4uandme
I got this quote from the free forex ebooks website posted earlier in the thread (the quote is from Wayne Gretzky)

"The more I practice, the luckier I get."

Thought this was a great way for us to think of our trading skills and how we learn to exploit opportunities.

Also, Chandra, there were a couple of candlestick documents that looked pretty good....and they were free. Might be worth your time to check them out if you haven't already (it'll save you some cash, which is a good thing!)
Hi Pips,

That quote was actually by Gary Player the great South African golfer.Do you know of any more great South Africans? I have one who springs to mind.

Cheers.
  • #2,555
  • Mar 14, 2007 11:33am Mar 14, 2007 11:33am
pip in my pocket!!!
thnx buddy.
  • #2,556
  • Mar 14, 2007 11:49am Mar 14, 2007 11:49am
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  • #2,557
  • Mar 14, 2007 11:58am Mar 14, 2007 11:58am
For those who gets bored if nothing happens.

Just made 10 on the UsdJpy


5 Min give some action. See the 5 Min Intraday Strategy
Attached Image
  • #2,558
  • Mar 14, 2007 12:11pm Mar 14, 2007 12:11pm
Quoting chenkz
Hi, could you please tell me how to set the MACD parameters.

I am using AccuCharts the default is:-

move1 12
move2 26
trigger 9

I assume the move1 = fast; move2 = slow

I am not sure how to set MACD = 1, coz when I set trigger = 0 there is no MACD bars at all, and i can only see a straight line.

Please advise.

chenkz, I can tell you how to configure AccuCharts with this strategy. FxSol DOES have 4hr charts, as you may already know.
Attached Image
  • #2,559
  • Mar 14, 2007 12:15pm Mar 14, 2007 12:15pm
Quoting tamkras
That's fine with me - I have confidence in my trades. If you have followed all my trades posted on this forum I am sure your account would have grown substantially. These are copy trades (small lots) for the last 6 days. I manage bigger volumes in real life. I started to copy my trades on a demo account to prove for myself what I can do with $3,000 as a starting capital. Not a single losing trade, he-he. I want to continue (test) over the course of 3 months. Yes, I am very patient. Yours, T.
Hi Tam,

I was'nt questioning your trade or methods, I have no doubts about your ability to analyse and produce reasoning. I was just wondering whether your trade was because of the inside bottom from the 8th.

Also could you tell me where did you position your s/l on this trade and why? as this is an area which is really difficult to get a grip of (stopped out twice last night).

Members please give stop loss and reasoning if you could, it would be a great help.



Cheers
  • #2,560
  • Mar 14, 2007 12:56pm Mar 14, 2007 12:56pm
Quoting FOURX
Hi Tam,

I was'nt questioning your trade or methods, I have no doubts about your ability to analyse and produce reasoning. I was just wondering whether your trade was because of the inside bottom from the 8th.

Also could you tell me where did you position your s/l on this trade and why? as this is an area which is really difficult to get a grip of (stopped out twice last night).

Members please give stop loss and reasoning if you could, it would be a great help.



Cheers
Fourx, all are valid points. I can clarify how I approached the last trade. Let's go back to my post when I entered a new long usd/jpy position. Post # 2488. You can see there 3 red horizontal bars. This is how I mark up my territory. The most important is the middle one. It goes all the way from the most recent low on that chart (I am aware there was another low but no one can predict it, that's why the plan) to the inside cave of the low on March 7. This is the inside pattern to me. Second point: how do I calculate a stop-loss? As a rule of thumb I want to have a max. 50 pips plus slippage. When I measure 50 pips away I like to see that this SL point is close (+/- 10 pips) to the previous low or high. When this point is broken the complete inside pattern is broken and my position must be liquidated. This is very important. That's why stop-loss is tight and does not depend on the size of reversal candles which can be quite big. Therefore, I run much less risk. Third point: when I evaluate the market picture I am aware that the price is always painting something unique and I am trying to understand it (this is not a technical rule, it is my personal vision, maybe a talent, eh?). Look at this overall curve structure. Do you see something interesting? I did. Yes, this is head-and-shoulders structure. But do you see that the right shoulder is higher than the left one? Do you see that the slope line of the head is slightly upwards? So, I saw it, too. It tells me that the price must be stopped somewhere higher than the previous low because the whole structure looks slightly upwards, as if something tucks it from beneath thus raising the right shoulder. Exiting from my positions is a completely different story and I will need more space for this. I will explain it a bit later. Yours, T.
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