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We all need pivots to win..yes or not? 13 replies

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The System II (Yes with irony)

  • #781
  • Dec 25, 2008 8:02am Dec 25, 2008 8:02am
Hi All,

Merry xmas and happy holidays (and a happy break from trading to all). Hope you and your family have a safe and relaxing holiday.
See you all in the new year.

-En0X
Survive and Preserve
  • #782
  • Dec 25, 2008 8:46am Dec 25, 2008 8:46am
Quoting feb2865
Thank you Alexfx for your kind words.

I am not posting here as much due the current nature of the markets. At least for me, it's not worth it.

Anyway I wish you all happy holidays and 2009 will bring you the best on health and prosperity.

Blessings and good karma to all of you.

Pay attention children - like the man said "due to the nature of the markets". Somewhere around this forum there are people in a thread talking about EUR going to 2 next year. Funny, because there is a huge amount of puts being lined up for 1.20 in March.

Again, they are in the market on thin liquidity, and this is there first holiday trading season.

I on the other hand, have been out of the market since roughly the 15th of the month, and won't bother until after the Jan 2 wake up. That makes Jan 5, only if there is a set up.

Sometimes it's just better to ignore it all.

You been watching those pork bellies Billy Ray? You know they all gotta get that GI Joe with the King Fu grip for Christmas or they won't get any......"

Merry Christmas.

Clockwork
  • #783
  • Dec 26, 2008 4:00pm Dec 26, 2008 4:00pm
Hi Clockwork...how's the baby?? Thanks a lot for your comments.

Listen guys, after many requests on who do I "scalp" I decided to open up another thread on that subject. I will keep this thread and "system I" just in case anyone have questions. I promise I will make it interesting.

The thread will be no apt for newbies...sorry.

I'll keep you posed. Stay tuned.

I wish you all 2009 will bring you the best of everything.
Peace and good karma to everybody.
Peace
  • #784
  • Dec 27, 2008 5:31am Dec 27, 2008 5:31am
HI FEB,

Nice idea the new thread. We're all on standby waiting. Tks for your willingness to keep sharing your valued knowledge.

Wishing for YOU Peace & Prosperity in 2009.

_________________________
  • #785
  • Dec 27, 2008 8:46am Dec 27, 2008 8:46am
Quoting feb2865
Hi Clockwork...how's the baby?? Thanks a lot for your comments.

Listen guys, after many requests on who do I "scalp" I decided to open up another thread on that subject. I will keep this thread and "system I" just in case anyone have questions. I promise I will make it interesting.

The thread will be no apt for newbies...sorry.

I'll keep you posed. Stay tuned.

I wish you all 2009 will bring you the best of everything.
Peace and good karma to everybody.
He's as big as a Mack truck! Thanks for asking.

I can't wait to see your next thread.....and no worries, being profitable (like the 2 threads would make a trader be so far....) is always interesting!

Clockwork
  • #786
  • Dec 27, 2008 10:05am Dec 27, 2008 10:05am
Happy New Year Everyone,

May 2009 be a successful trading year for those of us who are focused, consistent and disciplined. Feb I wish for you the best health for 2009 and many blessings. Looking forward to your new thread.

fxpilot



Quoting feb2865
Hi Clockwork...how's the baby?? Thanks a lot for your comments.

Listen guys, after many requests on who do I "scalp" I decided to open up another thread on that subject. I will keep this thread and "system I" just in case anyone have questions. I promise I will make it interesting.

The thread will be no apt for newbies...sorry.

I'll keep you posed. Stay tuned.

I wish you all 2009 will bring you the best of everything.
Peace and good karma to everybody.
  • #787
  • Dec 27, 2008 10:49pm Dec 27, 2008 10:49pm
Hi everyone, great thread. Has anyone tried this during the Asian session and if so what were your results? Thank you...
  • #788
  • Dec 28, 2008 12:33am Dec 28, 2008 12:33am
Feb I just found your great thread and have read through much of it but not all yet.

Thank you for taking the time to share it.

About a year ago I "discovered" a similar pattern in the GBP/JPY 1 hour charts. I will not highjack your thread at all because the pattern I look for is exactly what you do, I just never dropped down to the 5 min level on GU and EU.

Thanks for pointing me in that direction.

I call the pattern a move-pullback-breakout.

I see you have an arch enemy called the chop monster. That's great.

I call it getting stuck in the washing machine.

Maybe the only thing I can contribute of value right now is to those people who are having trouble identifying the pattern live.

I use candlesticks and a good setup on the chart looks like it would be a fun rollercoaster ride. A bad setup looks like the cars derailed. Hope that helps.

Thanks again, Greg
  • #789
  • Dec 28, 2008 1:20am Dec 28, 2008 1:20am
Hi Clockwork, I hope you see this post. You said your w/r is 75-80% with this by you having your stop loss a little bigger since you are only using 1%. Can you tell me more? Do you place it below the retracement or even farther...thank you.

I really LOVE this idea but I am concerned the win ratio will be low? Any ideas? Thank you.
  • #790
  • Edited 5:10am Dec 28, 2008 5:07am | Edited 5:10am
jflor100,

Works in Asian session as well. For me NY & London, but that just fits me & my time zone better. A nice get in, get it & get out system. Very little over night exposure......for me anyway. Welcome & stay tuned as I'm sure theres more to come.
  • #791
  • Dec 28, 2008 12:13pm Dec 28, 2008 12:13pm
Quoting jflor100
Hi everyone, great thread. Has anyone tried this during the Asian session and if so what were your results? Thank you...
Welcome jflor,

I've noticed you can get some good moves early in the Asian that let you pick up some good pips then. It seems that it either slows down after 1-2 hours or starts getting choppy.

I have not been trading this system very long but it appears that you get the strongest/longest swings during the London or NY sessions.

===========

Questions for everyone:

 

  1. What are you using as a profit target? I know Feb said in the beginning he shoots for 20-40 pips.
  2. Is there some way to estimate, by the price action, how far out to set the target?

Like usual, the exits are the hard part. I've been screwing up a lot on that part of the deal.

Thanks in advance

  • #792
  • Dec 28, 2008 3:41pm Dec 28, 2008 3:41pm
I believe Feb did say the 20/20 rule but not to make it a hard and fast rule. For me my tp needs to be the same as or greater than the sl. I also think we need to be able to take advantage of the big runs by using a trailing stop or a stop below/above the previous one or 2 candles... this is PA. Feb said the trailing stop is his "secret weapon" and I believe that is what is going to make this profitable since he says the w/r is a little low? Just my thoughts.
  • #793
  • Dec 28, 2008 4:40pm Dec 28, 2008 4:40pm
PistolDave,

For me PT is 20-30, but I am always gunning for more & will take 10 instead of a loss. Cutting losers short & trailing the winners to protect the gains.

Trailing stops are used to lock in those gains.

My sl will be 10 if tp @ 20. TP @ 30 sl @ 15. Sl will always be 1/2 of gains sought.

Estimating how far out to set profit targets......good question & I would like to get FEB'S view on that one, but I always observe how strong the move is when I enter & set targets accordingly. Strong move target 30 pips...Weak move 20 pips target. That is just what works for me. For the most part my targets are mental targets & are rarely preset on the trading platform. Trailing stops put in place after 10 pip gain & moved as it goes.

BTW: Did you receive my pm?

Best Trades To All.
  • #794
  • Dec 28, 2008 5:20pm Dec 28, 2008 5:20pm
Thanks for the replies guys. Acetrader have you determined a win ratio for this method? I know Feb says his is low, others have said 70-80%. I see it being high in my backtesting but I haven't dedicated more than a couple of hours to it. I guess alot of it will have to do with MM as well. Thanks guys...
  • #795
  • Dec 28, 2008 6:16pm Dec 28, 2008 6:16pm
jflor100,

So far I'm @ just under 65% win hit ratio. I am using 2 lots & about 5 trades per day. MM is for sure an important factor. I have a habit of cutting some trades TO SHORT & they go on to produce more, but when in doubt I get out.

I'm averaging 20-25 pips net per trade, but have had some @ 40-50+ pips.
  • #796
  • Dec 28, 2008 6:54pm Dec 28, 2008 6:54pm
Great Ace...thank you for your time and help. Are you trading this "as-is"? It seems great and wouldn't need any tweaking. Also what pairs...the once already recommended in the thread...I believe they were cable, e/u , usd/chf, and gbp/jpy?? Thanks again...great thread. I have been seeking a Higher w/r but with proper MM I know this will be profitable. So you are netting about 50 pips a day after losses....is that right? If this is too personal I understand I just want to see the possibilities.

I am thinking of looking at these 4-5 pairs and taking what I determine to be the best few trades a day...whether thats 1 or 10.

Thank ya!!
  • #797
  • Dec 28, 2008 7:34pm Dec 28, 2008 7:34pm
jflor100,

Trading The System AS IS & averaging about 100 after the losers & there are losers along the path. My sl levels is kept tight as described eariler. The losers will average about 10-15 pips each & when the sl level is hit I'm out. Cutting the losers keeps you in the game another day.

The losers I have are due to MY MISTAKES & NOT THE SYSTEMS FAULT.

So far hitting the E/$, GBP/$ & $/Y..........E/$ being the favored one.

This is a nice Get in, Get it & Get out system. The 3 G's as I say.

This is just what I do & it works for me so far.

__________________________________
Best Trade & Good Karma
  • #798
  • Dec 28, 2008 7:43pm Dec 28, 2008 7:43pm
Indicators are lagging. That's why price always seems to go against you when entering trades based off of indicators.

First trade with strategy +20
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  • #799
  • Dec 28, 2008 7:47pm Dec 28, 2008 7:47pm
Thanks Ace, well thats what I needed to know. I appreciate your answers and guidance. I will do some testing and share my results shortly...thanks a million
  • #800
  • Dec 29, 2008 7:09am Dec 29, 2008 7:09am
Hi Guyz, I just found this thread and have read it since page 1.
Firstly, I want to say thank you to Feb for sharing his valuable knowledge. I hope he get well soon.
I also want to say thank you for all the contributors for this thread.
Many karma to you all.

Just want to share the trade that i took this morning around 5:35 am EST
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