Oil Trades and outlook

yes it is scary...

I wonder why bubbles happen... and one reason can be also that big players try to move the market to stop some lucky ones who have go in the opposite direction to try to find a bottom or a top... they don't want anyone to find that bottom or top.. so they will want to stop everybody... increasing the bubble in one direction or another... until it explodes.

A late post as I had connection problems

Technical Report:

Friday’s trading activity once again established fresh lows continuing to add momentum to this relentless down trend. As we mentioned in the last ‘Oil Comment’ after breaking through the psychological level of 50.00, crude seems to be on a consolidation path rather than a real corrective rally. Although oil closed higher on Friday and also marginally higher this morning, we feel that a break of the 9 day moving average will be required to add any technical strength to the short term outlook.
The short, medium and long term trends are all bearish.

Support: $47.40 (low of 21/11/08) Resistance: $51.68 (low of 12/11/08)
Support: $47.25 (high of 27/01/05) Resistance: $51.09 (9 day moving average)
Support: $46.43 (high of 30/11/04) Resistance: $50.60 (low of 13/11/08)


Summary:


On Friday we saw a small recovery in the energy complex mainly because of a late session, sharp rebound in the Dow which shows that the attachment between crude and stock markets remains intact. Bad news, literally on a daily basis suggests that the bigger picture is still influenced by a bearish sentiment with any short term rally quickly dismissed by traders as unconvincing. So although analysts expect a period of consolidation at around $50 level, possibly followed by an upward move towards mid $50 region, fresh shorting opportunities are definitely on the cards too.

Technical Report:

In an ‘Inside Day’ pattern similar with the one we saw 3 weeks ago oil market retraced and the crude erased most of the previous day’s rally. The important feature was that just like before we broke below the 9 day and 14 day moving average but the fact that we didn’t make new lows seems to suggest that more sideways movements could be expected.
The short term is sideways while the medium and long terms are bearish.

Support: $50.10 (yesterdays low) Resistance: $53.86 (yesterdays high)
Support: $48.00 (low of 24/11/08) Resistance: $52.95 (high of 19/11/08)
Support: $47.40 (low of 21/11/08) Resistance: $51.70 (9 day moving average)


Summary:

After the US government plan to bail out Citigroup, yesterday’s report of a contracting gross domestic product came as a reminder that the economic outlook remains grim which in turn reinforced a weak oil demand that has been making the headlines for more than 4 months. As a consequence the crude moved lower even in the face of a weak dollar and a quite stable stock market. Today’s EIA stats are expected to show an increase of about 1 mb crude stocks but a build in excess of 3-4 mb cannot be ruled out providing as always good opportunities for oil traders.

price met estimated target.

Contrary as many people states oil prices couldn’t fall until $25 at least in 6 months. I’m thinking to make trades with it seeing the prices are quite low and I’ll do it but planning a long term investments of at least those 6 months
Your trades are intraday I guess, don’t they?
For now Goldman says the price will remain around $45

At a time right near the top Goldman said it was going to $200

Does anyone know of a good reliable broker that I can trade oil with using the MT4 platform? I live in the USA. ODL shows it in there demo, but it can not be traded in a live account from here. Thanks in advance.

Anyone trading calender spreads?

There is quite a spread between the near and further out months!

Narafa?

Soon after they reported their first quarterly loss since going public nine years ago

the car industry has 3 months to convince people to buy cars.... mmmmm
I think this is going to get worse....

there are two options to renew the car industry...

1: set oil price to $200 or $300... so people will have to change car for new hydrogen models. But this is not good because a) this give a lot of money to oil producing countries. and b) this damages air industry.

2: keep oil prices below 50 so produces damage to oil producing countries. Great but now how can we convince people to buy new cars... easy.. setting a huge TAX to oil cars and free tax to hydrogen cars.

Option 2 is what they should do but politicians being politicians will not. They will say we are in a recession and the last thing we need to do is raise taxes. Especially since the poor will get hit harder on a tax at the pump.

They are right except it means we will miss an opportunity the actually do something about our addiction to crude oil whether it comes from the middle east or anywhere else.

I like the idea that if the USA adds a higher fuel tax then at least Chavez and Putin and others like them get less. Plain and simple.

does oil lead itself to technical trading? with indicators and all?

Same as any other traded market.

c

Can some1 please tell me how you paste a pic. I am trying to paste a print screen i have analyzed and i am not sure how its done

When you compose a new messge below the Submit Reply button is an area called Thread Options and in there you will see a Manage Attachments button.

Save an image to your desktop (make sure it is a size of around 800X480).
Then go to Manage Attachments and browse your computer @ desktop to locate image, upload it. Then once your message posts it will include chart.

this will damage oil producing countrys and oil companys aswell! and the big oil producing companys are not controled by poor (oil producing - venezuela for example) countrys. why let people get hydrogen cars when oil is available and with this a opportunity to earn money. i think the world will give the people new energies when oil is gone. do you know when this gonna happen? i think not in too near future.