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4 Hour Strategy (MACD)

  • #2,501
  • Mar 13, 2007 9:09pm Mar 13, 2007 9:09pm
I've got nothing really.

Usd/jpy and eur/jpy - both pulling up off light TL's, but 4 hour macd did not confirm upon candle close, and 1 hour did not confirm anything on TC. although I suspect this will be a nice long by the move so far (and Tam's input ).

Aud/usd - in downtrend, but pulled up for a bit, however 4 hour MACD did nothing for a good countertrend, and the 1 hour could not quite confirm a TC

Eur/usd - I pulled out of my earlier trade at BE. too much horzontal movement so that the 8 ema is now not even a tp target. No MACD at all on 4 hour and the 1 isn't giving us anything either.

gbp/usd - I refuse to play with this ranging motion until it straightens itself out and starts acting like an adult

Thoughts, comments, what you all are waiting for?

Turk, I think the rule on the 1 hour confirm is that if you see a RB or RT forming and it is not fully turned enough to take the 4 hour signal, look at the 1 hours, and if the signal comes there for a TC on 2 candle in, your set. Not sure what everyone else is using?
DireXiv Make it happen, no one else is going to do it for you...
  • #2,502
  • Mar 13, 2007 9:23pm Mar 13, 2007 9:23pm
Quoting tamkras
No, because of that red candle touching the inside of the previous low. The biggest motivation for me is to know when someone can continue paying for medication, tuition, equipment, etc. based on what he or she learnt from spending time here and not from what banks or their paid instructors tell them to do. We live to thrive. I spent years on studying different patterns, support and resistance and lost quite a lot in this game. So, I came to this board like Phillip and shared my ideas for free within just a month. Isn't it abnormal? Isn't it suspicious? I really do not care. Giving means something more to me. Thriving does not mean to me a nice suit and a bunch of stocks. When my daughter grows up and learns that her future was built because of my hard work, I will be thriving. I hope I am understood. Yours, T.
Thank you T, very inspireing
  • #2,503
  • Mar 13, 2007 9:25pm Mar 13, 2007 9:25pm
Quoting DireXiv
I've got nothing really.

Usd/jpy and eur/jpy - both pulling up off light TL's, but 4 hour macd did not confirm upon candle close, and 1 hour did not confirm anything on TC. although I suspect this will be a nice long by the move so far (and Tam's input ).

Aud/usd - in downtrend, but pulled up for a bit, however 4 hour MACD did nothing for a good countertrend, and the 1 hour could not quite confirm a TC

Eur/usd - I pulled out of my earlier trade at BE. too much horzontal movement so that the 8 ema is now not even a tp target. No MACD at all on 4 hour and the 1 isn't giving us anything either.

gbp/usd - I refuse to play with this ranging motion until it straightens itself out and starts acting like an adult

Thoughts, comments, what you all are waiting for?

Turk, I think the rule on the 1 hour confirm is that if you see a RB or RT forming and it is not fully turned enough to take the 4 hour signal, look at the 1 hours, and if the signal comes there for a TC on 2 candle in, your set. Not sure what everyone else is using?
Looking at AudUsd short.
Price has already retraced back to the 21 on the 1hr and looking to break through the lower trend line.
4hr Macd looks like it is breaking through zero after a small head and shoulders pattern. Might need a little more comfirmation.
  • #2,504
  • Mar 13, 2007 9:40pm Mar 13, 2007 9:40pm
I'm short AUDUSD @ 0.7815. Let's see what happens!
  • #2,505
  • Mar 13, 2007 9:56pm Mar 13, 2007 9:56pm
Quoting ~Shard~
I'm short AUDUSD @ 0.7815. Let's see what happens!
Yeah, looks like a good entry.
It might move against you a little at first but stick with it.
I'm waiting on the Macd's for a little more confirmation. Then im in.
  • #2,506
  • Mar 13, 2007 10:00pm Mar 13, 2007 10:00pm
I still show around 6 pips left on mig macd data turn show TC on the 1 hour. What else are you looking at? I would love to short right now... but waiting unless you're basing shorting off something else? Reallly interested!

Quoting smnitro1
Yeah, looks like a good entry.
It might move against you a little at first but stick with it.
I'm waiting on the Macd's for a little more confirmation. Then im in.
DireXiv Make it happen, no one else is going to do it for you...
  • #2,507
  • Mar 13, 2007 10:00pm Mar 13, 2007 10:00pm
Quoting smnitro1
Yeah, looks like a good entry.
It might move against you a little at first but stick with it.
I'm waiting on the Macd's for a little more confirmation. Then im in.
Thanks, I hope it is.

And yes, I'll definitely be patient with it. If it moves against me 50 pips or so I might have to re-evaluate, but otherwise it could easily move down into the 7700s by my charts.

As with everything, only time will tell!
  • #2,508
  • Mar 13, 2007 10:03pm Mar 13, 2007 10:03pm
Quoting DireXiv
I still show around 6 pips left on mig macd data turn show TC on the 1 hour. What else are you looking at? I would love to short right now... but waiting unless you're basing shorting off something else? Reallly interested!
As for myself at least, I use another variation of Phillip's system (along with his of course as well). Mine involves a 12/26/9 MACD (monthly, 4-hour increments as well) and an SAR indicator as well as several MAs. I received a strong short signal on this, and then coupled with the data we're looking at well, I thought it might be a safe entry point. I hope I'm right!
  • #2,509
  • Mar 13, 2007 10:26pm Mar 13, 2007 10:26pm
Quoting DireXiv
I still show around 6 pips left on mig macd data turn show TC on the 1 hour. What else are you looking at? I would love to short right now... but waiting unless you're basing shorting off something else? Reallly interested!
I am waiting for confirmation on the 1hr.5 pips more to drop.
But this baby is going down!!!
See at the patterns being repeated. Isn't that what Phillip calls the flow of the market, and aren't there some of Tamkra's Matriushkas?
  • #2,510
  • Mar 13, 2007 10:34pm Mar 13, 2007 10:34pm
Ist profit level at 23.6 fib (116.50)
2nd profit level at 38.2 fib, also resistance price level of 116.89
Any comments?
  • #2,511
  • Mar 13, 2007 10:41pm Mar 13, 2007 10:41pm
Quoting Palmer
fxhermit:

What time frame are you using to calculate the pivots? Weekly???
I generally take the working time frame (in this case the 4 hour) and run it out to the longer time frames (daily, weekly) and mark up the obvious ones (major pivots) then come back to the working time frame (4 hour) and mark up the ones that I see there as well. Remember that price pivot lines are not hard and fast to the exact price, think of them more as zones or areas. Don't get too caught up on drawing every one that you see or you will soon have one heck of a messy and confusing chart - just eyeball the major ones. From a swing traders perspective, that will most likely be all you will need. As an interesting excercise, choose a time frame, draw in some pivots then just change the time frame and scroll back. I think you will find it uncanny how the Elephant likes to keep visiting those areas over and over again days, weeks, months and even years later.
Stay calm, be brave, wait for the signs - Jasper Friendly Bear
  • #2,512
  • Mar 13, 2007 10:48pm Mar 13, 2007 10:48pm
Quoting turk87
Are you guys using the 1hr strategy along with the 4 HR?

I just started looking at it today and I"m trying to understand it.
Tell me if my interpretation is wrong:

If a round top is forming in the 4 hr.

  1. You look to see if there is a trend continuation MACD signal in the 1 hr
  2. You look to see the price is bouncing off and upwards from the 21 ema.
  3. You look to see the price is above the 89 dma.

If all of these are correct you go long.


However a Round top implies that you should enter SHORT. How does the 1 hour strategy show that you should enter SHORT if its round top, and LONG if its round bottom?????????????

Hi Turk!

The way to tell is via TC signal. if you see TC on 1 hour it may be the heads up not to go contra on 4. Ignore RT & RB on 1 hour. Hope this helps.
  • #2,513
  • Mar 13, 2007 10:50pm Mar 13, 2007 10:50pm
Quoting Palmer
That's what I get...'out of the office' for about a day and a half and there are 10 more pages of 'stuff' to got through. I'm hoping to get back to the charts this evening....'till then.
Welcome back, Palmer!
  • #2,514
  • Mar 13, 2007 10:54pm Mar 13, 2007 10:54pm
Quoting jarroo
Nice plan. Trust your trade. Good job.

Jim
Thank you so much for the reminder/advice to "Trust your trade." Have a really hard time with that part....and as a result, I closed my trade today +19 pips (which I'm happy with). But, had I trusted, I would now be up +120! Huge difference!

Wish I had talked to you before I closed
  • #2,515
  • Mar 13, 2007 11:01pm Mar 13, 2007 11:01pm
Quoting tamkras
95% success rate of all the posted trades on this forum tells me to take another vacation, at least, for a week. What a breather, these hills riding!
Awesome job (thought you were near, if not at, 100%...AMAZING!...prep and planning and patience really do pay off!). So, where are you going on your vacation? Someplace flat? (hehe). If you want more hills, your welcome at my house for dinner...just have a tiny hill to climb w/86 stairs (only 7 stories)!

I know you are tired of hearing this....but thank you soooooooo much for all you have done to help us on this forum.

Your daughter already knows how hard you work and how awesome you are!!!!!!!!
  • #2,516
  • Edited 11:19pm Mar 13, 2007 11:03pm | Edited 11:19pm
Quoting tamkras
No, because of that red candle touching the inside of the previous low. The biggest motivation for me is to know when someone can continue paying for medication, tuition, equipment, etc. based on what he or she learnt from spending time here and not from what banks or their paid instructors tell them to do. We live to thrive. I spent years on studying different patterns, support and resistance and lost quite a lot in this game. So, I came to this board like Phillip and shared my ideas for free within just a month. Isn't it abnormal? Isn't it suspicious? I really do not care. Giving means something more to me. Thriving does not mean to me a nice suit and a bunch of stocks. When my daughter grows up and learns that her future was built because of my hard work, I will be thriving. I hope I am understood. Yours, T.
If Tamkras is correct then we are perhaps seeing an ABC bottom in the 1 hour. The brave could follow Tamkras with an entry near C, the more conservative an entry at the break of B with another possible entry on the first pullback after B. Also looks like the 4 hour has just printed an inside bar, hmmm very interesting. If Tamkras is wrong, all bets are off .
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Stay calm, be brave, wait for the signs - Jasper Friendly Bear
  • #2,517
  • Mar 13, 2007 11:09pm Mar 13, 2007 11:09pm
Quoting tamkras
Hey, anyone here from Australia and New Zealand? What's going on with your currencies? My aussie trade is already in textbooks and I am pleading for some explanations. Yours, T.
know you already got answer...heard in addition to end of year action (JPY), lots of flight from risk aversion thanks to our (US) subprime/high default rate situation. Our stock market lost 245 points b/c of 13% default rate, 7% foreclosure (subprime mortgages). Thus, investors flew from high yielding, risky investment instruments (AUD, CAD, NZD). Money will flow back in a few days....when everyone forgets the news hype...
  • #2,518
  • Mar 13, 2007 11:11pm Mar 13, 2007 11:11pm
Quoting DireXiv
I've got nothing really.

gbp/usd - I refuse to play with this ranging motion until it straightens itself out and starts acting like an adult

Thoughts, comments, what you all are waiting for?

My thoughts/comments...Great post! I like it.
  • #2,519
  • Edited Mar 14, 2007 3:27pm Mar 13, 2007 11:17pm | Edited Mar 14, 2007 3:27pm
Quoting fxhermit
If Tamkras is correct then we are perhaps seeing and ABC bottom in the 1 hour. The brave could follow Tamkras with an entry near C, the more conservative an entry at the break of B with another possible entry on the first pullback after B. Also looks like the 4 hour has just printed an inside bar, hmmm very interesting. If Tamkras is wrong, all bets are off .
Nice analysis!

Maybe I'm wrong, but I don't think anyone has advised a short trade since much earlier today. Tamara's trade opened short ago (maybe 12 hours ago) at a much higher price point.

Guess I am lame, b/c I just don't see the short signal many of us traders are jumping on.
  • #2,520
  • Mar 13, 2007 11:36pm Mar 13, 2007 11:36pm
Quoting pip pirate 2
When I first set up my meta platform to Phillip's system, I set my H4 to go back two weeks. In other words, the first date on my system today, March 13, is Feb 20. Is that the same timeframe that everyone else is using? This is a good question for beginners and may be one of the reasons that we all don't see the same trends as each other. Any help would be appreciated.



Read any successful person’s biography and it goes like this: struggle, struggle, struggle, small success; struggle, struggle, struggle, small success; struggle, big struggle, struggle, BIG SUCCESS. See setbacks as proof of your future success. What makes anyone think that trading is any different?
Hi Pip pirate 2!

Think we are all a bit different in our lookback periods. I keep a month's worth of days on the 4 hour, use trendlines from daily (at least 6 months, some go back 3 years).

When I'm looking for patterns, I sometimes go back 5 or 6 years to see how they behaved.

Hope this helps.

Pips

ps. I really like your saying at the end of your posts.
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