EUR/USD flagging south this coming week | Page 3 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Similar Threads

EUR/GBP, EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, CAD, NZD, JPY, and more... 15 replies

Using usd/chf - eur/usd correlation to see moves in EUR/USD 46 replies

Coming Week Majors Analysis 2 replies

News for the coming week Nov 19 - 25 1 reply

USD risks for the coming week. 11 replies

Attachments: EUR/USD flagging south this coming week
Exit Attachments

EUR/USD flagging south this coming week

  • #41
  • Dec 21, 2008 12:46am Dec 21, 2008 12:46am
Apo, nothing is certain in these markets, that is for sure. However, any good trader seeks to minimise risk and maximise chances of a successful outcome according to their directional bias/assessment/analysis. There are times when the Europe session will initally sell off the Euro, but often (my observation) this seems to halt and go into reverse when the DAX opens.

As for what will happen this Monday coming, last week was an exceptional (maybe once in a life-time) event. It isn't every week that Tricky Trichet draws a line to say no more cuts, then the US Fed cuts to zero, then 2 days later Trichet realises his error and does a huge backflip. Can you see any reason at all for the Euro to retrace back to it's former dizzy heights from last week. Buckley's and none. Might it re-trace some on open? Possible. Might it go south again? Possible. All trading is judgement and the balance of probabilities, in this case, I think the Dollar bulls will win this particular skirmish come the end of next week. (And maybe not, we will only know for sure when the week is done, but we all make assessment based on the best information available and trade accordingly.)
  • #42
  • Dec 21, 2008 1:06am Dec 21, 2008 1:06am
Apo, nothing is certain in these markets, that is for sure. However, any good trader seeks to minimise risk and maximise chances of a successful outcome according to their directional bias/assessment/analysis. There are times when the Europe session will initally sell off the Euro, but often (my observation) this seems to halt and go into reverse when the DAX opens.

Hi Jade,

I have seen that. money comes into this pair as stocks rise as they're both in the risk set right now. when stocks are dumped investor flock to the USD as a flight to safety. Agree on the dax I have seen the pair sit and then rally on a positive market open. Again these are no certincies.

As for what will happen this Monday coming, last week was an exceptional (maybe once in a life-time) event. It isn't every week that Tricky Trichet draws a line to say no more cuts, then the US Fed cuts to zero, then 2 days later Trichet realises his error and does a huge backflip. Can you see any reason at all for the Euro to retrace back to it's former dizzy heights from last week. Buckley's and none. Might it re-trace some on open? Possible. Might it go south again? Possible. All trading is judgement and the balance of probabilities, in this case, I think the Dollar bulls will win this particular skirmish come the end of next week. (And maybe not, we will only know for sure when the week is done, but we all make assessment based on the best information available and trade accordingly.)

There is no hiding it overall I am a USD bull. But i try to stay away from making calls I trade off my little method and leave forcasting to the experts on TV .

I agree on on what we saw. Since JUL this year to date I have seen some of the most amazing things in the FOREX markets.

I agree I am negitive on the short term of the euro to the $ but off that chart it's a hard one.

anyways as long as u make money that's the main thing.
  • #43
  • Dec 21, 2008 1:48am Dec 21, 2008 1:48am
So, a question for Angela (who thinks/hopes the Euro is forming an alligator jaw to re-trace back to it's dizzy heights)

What hard evidence exists that anything might occur next week or at any time in the foreseeable future to suggest that we might re-visit the Euro highs of last week?

Given that... the US rate cut last week was already the state of the nation for several months (i.e. trading well below 1.00%) before it was made official (http://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/om...dfundsdata.cfm )

and given that Trichet has now foreshadowed not just this current rate cut for the EZ but possibly also others... is there anything at all likely to spur the Euro to do anything other than return to it's former resting place pre-hyperbole of last week now that all the facts and evidence and outcomes are 100% clear?

Do the charts, on the balance of probabilities, tend to provide further evidence to support that view?

These and many other questions we ask ourselves.
  • #44
  • Edited 6:37am Dec 21, 2008 6:23am | Edited 6:37am
Quoting Bemac
Speculating Market direction is an Art & therefore cannot be taught/learned at a desk.
It can Only be assimilated by experiencing it.
Amen ! Strangely enough, I haven't heard it too much around here on FF. Only other person I've heard saying the same is Phil.
Measure twice, cut once
  • #45
  • Edited 1:39pm Dec 21, 2008 1:16pm | Edited 1:39pm
All trading is judgement (knowledge + experience) and the balance of probabilities. The art of predicting accurately is indeed a craft learned through experience. Which is why it is highly advisable that newbies do not plow all of their available stake money into their first sojourn into the market.

Better to divide your forex account allocation into 4 amounts, allow plenty of time for learning and the experience factor to kick in, and transfer just one part of it to start with (so that you still have plenty in reserve if/when you blow up your first account). Can't say how many times I have seen traders moving from the false confidence of demo trading to the reality-check of live trading backing it with all of their available funds, only to lose their shirts. Huge difference between the two.
  • #46
  • Dec 21, 2008 1:35pm Dec 21, 2008 1:35pm
Quoting clockwork71
By definition, any time you have long wicks like that....it's not. But that's neither here nor there.

What really matters is if people, like myself, who thought the other way waited for set ups to short. I did, it didn't come. Oh well. No trade, no loss.

The next area is where we are right now. (1.37-38) If that gives, then certainly we are going right back up. However.....there's a few possible problems with that scenario as well.

For starters - Europe is releasing inflation numbers this week. And I know it might come as a surprise, but if...
Just looking at big moves in strong pairs it seems that the market likes to retrace 50-61.8% on big moves on the daily or weekly chart. I think 38.2 may be a little too week. Although, if 38.2% holds which will take lots of time and consolidation. Then I think the upside for the eur is going to be quite large.

Just my take, so take it with a grain of salt.

Philip
  • #47
  • Dec 21, 2008 2:29pm Dec 21, 2008 2:29pm
Quoting klinckphilip
Just looking at big moves in strong pairs it seems that the market likes to retrace 50-61.8% on big moves on the daily or weekly chart. I think 38.2 may be a little too week. Although, if 38.2% holds which will take lots of time and consolidation. Then I think the upside for the eur is going to be quite large.

Just my take, so take it with a grain of salt.

Philip
I think a retracement to fib 50% at 1.429 area is possible.
Probability Professor
  • #48
  • Jan 15, 2009 8:27am Jan 15, 2009 8:27am
Quoting Jade Gate
These are 4H charts with triangles (wedge flags) very clearly forming, major resistance evident at 1.34 for the EUR/USD, a former support level for this currency.

Similarly, the USD/CHF is now close to or on support also at 1.17, also a former point of resistance several weeks ago, but now (likely) to act as support.

Note the lower wicks on the Swissy, these are called "quad-tips", they are neatly lined up, you can draw a horizontal line through them, indicating a strong base of support is being laid at this level with a high probability...
Euro formation is a rising wedge, and the Swissy's a falling wedge. Most of the time the patterns break in the direction of the immediate trend and to the side of the horizontal resistance/support barrier.
  • #49
  • Last Post: Jan 15, 2009 9:16am Jan 15, 2009 9:16am
Quoting pipeye
Euro formation is a rising wedge, and the Swissy's a falling wedge. Most of the time the patterns break in the direction of the immediate trend and to the side of the horizontal resistance/support barrier.
Well i see the exact opposite to your post. Swissey is channeling up inside a possible rising wedge that is a bearish pattern and euro channeling down inside a possible bullish flag or a falling wedge, both are bullish patterns. Best observed on 4hr. Today swissey is trading inside an ascending 1hr channel and was giving pips to the traders that follow strict oldschool TA and know how to trade current market conditions.
0 traders viewing now