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Hedge trading spieler system derived from futures spread trading

  • #2,301
  • Dec 17, 2008 5:04am Dec 17, 2008 5:04am
Quoting Arilou
A question related to my previous post:

Today the "divergence" of EURCHF is about 1%, and it shows no intension to go back to 0. The same happened on dec. 5. The deivergence jumped up, and it never went back to 0 (only when it was artificially adjusted back at the beginning of next day). How this method can be traded in such cases?
To simply put it it can't be traded at all. As I said before , but I guess people are so naive so they actually follow that spieler crook, you can't make money by hoping that price will go back to the level where you opened your positions. You will lose. In my opinion the sooner the better. At least you will realize that this does not work and spieler crook will not tell you that. This is the most common mistake people make. Don't hope. Follow the trend and adjust when you see that market goes against you. This so called decorelation in my opinion might have worked only if the amount of money in the market was constant, but it's not. You never know how much more money will certain central bank inject in the market and balance will go off. Stay away from this decorelation crap for your own good.
  • #2,302
  • Dec 17, 2008 6:14am Dec 17, 2008 6:14am
Quoting mackus
Yes I am. Most likely after the new year.
Opened 3rd and 4th short positions today at eur/chf 1.5679 and 1.5757.
Closed all positions in profit just now, even including negative roll for having open short positions. Per the system should've closed after 10 days of accruing negative roll but didn't go over by much.
  • #2,303
  • Dec 17, 2008 6:19am Dec 17, 2008 6:19am
Quoting spieler
Hi eveybody
Hope you are doing fine.

I will restart talking on the system next year .

2008 has been a very good year for hedging systeme despite the last trade ( cut too soon by far because waiting some more days would have generate high profits).

We need now volatility to slow down a little bit to get back to 0,25 ratio.

Trade safe
Is there a calculation or indicator you will use to determine how much volatility will keep the .25% ratio valid?
  • #2,304
  • Dec 17, 2008 6:27am Dec 17, 2008 6:27am
Quoting miosono1
To simply put it it can't be traded at all. As I said before , but I guess people are so naive so they actually follow that spieler crook, you can't make money by hoping that price will go back to the level where you opened your positions. You will lose. In my opinion the sooner the better. At least you will realize that this does not work and spieler crook will not tell you that. This is the most common mistake people make. Don't hope. Follow the trend and adjust when you see that market goes against you. This so called decorelation in my opinion...
Have you read the thread? Price doesn't have to go all the way back to your entry level to make a profit. Price can go against you and you can still make money by following spieler's money management rules.
  • #2,305
  • Dec 18, 2008 5:58am Dec 18, 2008 5:58am

For me it is a pleasure to be able to contribute in some way to develop this method, then no discomfort...

Certainly I have traded also with this system, I did not upset the framework for action indicated by Spieler, also because you can make small customizations but the basic method should not be upset, the basic criterion is valid!

After this necessary premise, if you let me have any tips for optimizing the method:
1-Control the volatility of the couple on EURCHF daily TF, at the current volatility is advisable to wait for intervals of 0.50% or more...
2-on H1 TF an increased of volatility is favorable to our approach to trade...
3-used Bollinger bands on M1 TF to measure the speed, for better viewing I suggest this indicator as a histogram (In this way we measure the volatility on M1 TF or the speed of what we are talking)
4-As for the Money Management, this method is not recommended for small accounts, also look for a broker with a leverage of 1:200 or better 1:400, remember, we do not use stop protection then ever considered the possibility of margin call! Do not use stop loss is a big advantage, the less information you give to broker the better our performance, but with caution...
5-with regard to the one leg thing, I have my personal system but I would not invite anyone to follow these my customizations!

My best to you and yours,

Stake*

  • #2,306
  • Dec 18, 2008 4:14pm Dec 18, 2008 4:14pm
"but I guess people are so naive so they actually follow that spieler crook, you can't make money by hoping that price will go back to the level where you opened your positions"

1) You understand nothing to this system saying what you are saying. We dont have of course to wait entry point.

2) You have 24hours to edit and erase the word crook from your post or Forexfactory will get a mail from my lawyers asking for your identity. I will not let someone coming from nowhere and understanding nothing ( lack of reading the full post i suppose i can understand) insulting me .
I have nothing to sell how could i be a crook!!!
I am a professional money manager on 8 figures account so very far from what you think.
  • #2,307
  • Dec 19, 2008 7:47am Dec 19, 2008 7:47am
Quoting spieler
"but I guess people are so naive so they actually follow that spieler crook, you can't make money by hoping that price will go back to the level where you opened your positions"

1) You understand nothing to this system saying what you are saying. We dont have of course to wait entry point.

2) You have 24hours to edit and erase the word crook from your post or Forexfactory will get a mail from my lawyers asking for your identity. I will not let someone coming from nowhere and understanding nothing ( lack of reading the full post i suppose i...
I have no respect toward you or your so called system so I could not care less about what you think of me or how you feel or what you are gonna do. You are the one who is misleading people with making them believe into something that does not exist. Even less I care about how much money you manage. Bernie Madoff was managing 11 figure account, does it make him respectable account manager.
  • #2,308
  • Dec 19, 2008 7:58am Dec 19, 2008 7:58am
Quoting miosono1
I have no respect toward you or your so called system so I could not care less about what you think of me or how you feel or what you are gonna do. You are the one who is misleading people with making them believe into something that does not exist. Even less I care about how much money you manage. Bernie Madoff was managing 11 figure account, does it make him respectable account manager.
Miosono1, you have only 5 posts in this forum and all of them are in this thread insulting Spieler and putting a lot of negativity not due.
That's ok , you have your opinion about Spieler's strategy and it's clear that you don't like it but we are all adult enough with a working brain to understand if this strategy is more or less dangerous for our account.
Thank you for your cooperation.

Skyline
  • #2,309
  • Dec 19, 2008 8:16am Dec 19, 2008 8:16am
Quoting miosono1
I have no respect toward you or your so called system so I could not care less about what you think of me or how you feel or what you are gonna do. You are the one who is misleading people with making them believe into something that does not exist. Even less I care about how much money you manage. Bernie Madoff was managing 11 figure account, does it make him respectable account manager.
Misono ,
Madoff was running a business and was managing other peoples money. As stated before Spieler is just sharing his system and view of how to trade the FX market. It is up to anyone to follow the thread or to invest in Madoffs fund.
There are no certainties only oppurtunities.
  • #2,310
  • Dec 20, 2008 9:08am Dec 20, 2008 9:08am
I dont want to lose my time with this kind of guy ,understanding nothing, thinking they know everything, thinking for others .
What is important in trading is lenghting enough time to understand what makes a good trader and spread trading can participate in that way in a better manner than outright trading.
I have enough experience ( more than 10 years in trading) and still there winning year after year so i think i can give some good advices.
Comparing mr to madoff who was not a trader but a scammer is so ridiculous that, i have nothing to add.
Ps: Even if you dont care a letter from my lawyers has been sent to forex factory to ask for your identity.
I cannot bear people like you with no education and so rude.
I can accept , and i like that, speaking with people not sharing my trading ideas . But being insulted by an anonymous guy who understand nothing in trading i cannot.
See you in the court
  • #2,311
  • Dec 20, 2008 12:22pm Dec 20, 2008 12:22pm
i have a q

how much many do i need to start trading thise intresting sys

i know it difrent for trader to trader

but let see i whant to make betwin 1000 to 3000 ehch mount

i welcam and aprishiat u r answer in advansd:}

ignor my speling english no my netive lagwech


fx fule
  • #2,312
  • Dec 20, 2008 7:07pm Dec 20, 2008 7:07pm
Hi elchoco

It seems you placed your trades correctly, from the method provided, accumulated as the divergence increased by increments of -0.25%. I've done a little reasearch on this, but cannot be 100% sure of the correctness of your entry points. Hopefully others can confirm or reject the correctness of your entrys, instead of flamming you. Seems there are many here, quick to flame and far less quick to research, investigate and develope or refute the methodology.

One possible reason for your loss even though the divergence increased/move closer back to 0% was because of the base period the divergence is calculated on. As far as I understand, the divergence here is calculate on the previous periods data as the base.

Theoretically, your divergence was showing -0.02% because it was based on the previous days data and a new day with a new base at that, but I would venture a guess that if you manually calculate the divergence using the your first entry trade's data as the base, you will find the divergence has decrease/moved further away from 0%. Mathematically, what I'm trying to say is that the divergence of the two pairs probably didn't decrease, it was the base that changed in the formula and the longer term divergence actually increased.

In my books, but open to correction, this is a fundimental issue with this methodology. The divergence calculated using the previous period's data as the base could be showing divergence moving back closer to 0%, but the divergence calculated using a sooner period as the base, could quite easily be showing a longer term increase in divergance, i.e. moving further away from 0%.

As a solution, well I'm not quite sure, but there has to be something else that spieler is looking at or my maths is off the mark.

JC

Quoting elchoco
OK, here's good learning point, just woken up, diversion is now -0.02%. 5 of the 6 positions are at a loss. total P/L -839GBP

Edit:

Diversion now -0.31%
P/L Short EUR-USD positions = +1,211
P/L Short USD-CHF psotions = -1,229

Edit:

Closed out long USD-CHF Positions for total loss of -877GBP
Riding short EUR-USD positions.
  • #2,313
  • Dec 20, 2008 8:49pm Dec 20, 2008 8:49pm
Quoting spieler
I dont want to lose my time with this kind of guy ,understanding nothing, thinking they know everything, thinking for others .
What is important in trading is lenghting enough time to understand what makes a good trader and spread trading can participate in that way in a better manner than outright trading.
I have enough experience ( more than 10 years in trading) and still there winning year after year so i think i can give some good advices.
Comparing mr to madoff who was not a trader but a scammer is so ridiculous that, i have nothing to add.
Ps:...
No problem. I am ready.
  • #2,314
  • Dec 21, 2008 11:15am Dec 21, 2008 11:15am
Quoting miosono1
No problem. I am ready.
I am always amazed how people in this forum time after time, get into these "disputes" - you can see it in every single successful thread. There is simply always someone who will start stirring sh.t for no reason.

Miosono1, my advise is to simply move on. Obviously there are many people that like this system, and so far are making money with it. I for one made money (a small real money account) consistently without loosing one trade all through out the period of increased volatility we experienced lately. So this tells me that this system is one of the better and more stable systems out there. Is it perfect and for everyone - definitely not. No system is. But the fact that I made money throughout the "crazy" in the market is very good sign.

So Please do us all a favor and simply do not post in this thread unless you have something constructive to say.
  • #2,315
  • Dec 22, 2008 11:46am Dec 22, 2008 11:46am
Quoting almomento
I am always amazed how people in this forum time after time, get into these "disputes" - you can see it in every single successful thread....
Of course you are making money trading trading this system, and I am Santa Claus.
  • #2,316
  • Dec 23, 2008 3:08am Dec 23, 2008 3:08am
That would explain why your balls (miosono1) are so backed up affecting your brain, you prick.

Santa only comes once a year!
  • #2,317
  • Dec 23, 2008 9:21am Dec 23, 2008 9:21am
With the huge swings of the past 2 weeks and the low holiday volume I'm curious to see how many traders haven't packed up for the year?
  • #2,318
  • Dec 23, 2008 10:09am Dec 23, 2008 10:09am
Quoting mackus
With the huge swings of the past 2 weeks and the low holiday volume I'm curious to see how many traders haven't packed up for the year?
I just closed all of my positions for a small profit and will be back in 2009. It was my first year trading the forex, and it was quite a ride. Looking forward to a lot more to come and wishing everybody here a Happy New Year
  • #2,319
  • Dec 23, 2008 11:48am Dec 23, 2008 11:48am
I am cash as well.

2008 has been a good profitable year.

I will be back on 05th january and will start again posting here on hedge trading ( i have of course others systems ) but this one has the best risk/reward.

Cheers everyone and see you next year
  • #2,320
  • Dec 23, 2008 12:57pm Dec 23, 2008 12:57pm
Quoting spieler
I am cash as well.

2008 has been a good profitable year.

I will be back on 05th january and will start again posting here on hedge trading ( i have of course others systems ) but this one has the best risk/reward.

Cheers everyone and see you next year
Spieler, again many thanks for sharing this sytem and I really hope to hear from you next year. It was a great year of trading, one of the best I experienced in my short experience (3y).

To all, best wishes and success trading this system and looking forward to see you all next year on this thread.
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