StewartR - I want my trading to be boring.

Took this trade a few hours ago.
News from germany has boosted the euro significantly (eurusd is roaring along), but the euraud couldn't take out the high.

Will be interesting to see how this one plays out.
Its a probabilities game........so I have to take all the trades that come up.....so I can give the probabilities a chance to work in my favour.

4 hour pin bar
4 hour overbought stochastic
4 hour down trend

daily down trend
1 hour down trend

7 months later.....and I have spent a lot of time looking at trading on 5 minute and 1 minute charts.


The result is that I think I prefer Not to Trade so Short Term!

So I will continue this journal posting live trades for my record.

Trade still open
Reason for entry: strong move up to area of resistance.
Did not wait for price action to form.
Did not wait for price to move down from high.
Just got in on strength of the resistance.

Currently up 42 pips. Been as high as 73.

Moved SL to Break Even now.

Closed above trade for + 31 pips.

Move went +70.
Then two inside bars formed on the 1hour AUD....while the E/U was climbing rapidly to the old high. I suspect this means the AUD may bullishly follow. So I exited.

Profit of .75R (risked 40 pips - took 31 profit)


20 minutes later price was back to +70 pips and the inside bar was broken to the downside. I am happy though. Trading is not precise. I can never get my exits 'perfect' other than by luck. I have no idea where the market is going and anything can happen at any time. So I made the best decision I could at the time and I did not let a 1.5R profit turn into a loss.

Here is how I should have read the action.
My reason for exiting was due to watching the formation of the candle immediately after the pin bar.

If I had waited for the candle to close....I'd still be in this trade.

The plan on exits is : stay in the trade until S/R + price action tells me that the move has stalled/ended and has reversed. In the meantime, assume the trend will continue.

EU short trade.
Support break after extended move.

Took 63 pips in a few minutes when price was at prior resistance (which may have become new support).

10 minutes after exit, the trade is still running and is currently at 130 pips.
Old habits die hard. (cutting profits).

With the current volatility 63 pips is scalping.

I am patient for the setup and entry. I need to learn patience when I am in a winning trade and stay with it for a while.

Here's the last trade in a post that is more readable.
Simple breakout.

Saw 1 hour clear support get broken. Entered short (live trade above).

Lesson - when a live trade gets to support/resistance dont exit right away. Rather just watch the price action to see what happens. If I had held off for just 3 or 4 more minutes, the small bounce ended and the breakout continued...

EDIT: 1.5 hours after entering price has stalled (inside bar) and is now continuing downward and is at nearly 2:1.
EDIT: 2 hours after exiting - price has moved 200+ pips. There has been no price action on a 30 minute or 1hour chart to indicate a need to exit.

Trend continuation.
This is off a 30minute and 5 minute chart.
The daily is a pin bar after an extended move....so the price is likely to go down today. Price declined 'alot' to reach 1.4000 and stalled for 18 * 5minute candles.

I shorted at exactly the right time.
Draw down was 2 pips and then up and away!

Risk was 34 pips.
Already up 60+ at the time of posting this.


I'm up 2:1. Closed half and am letting the remainder run until price action indicates a reversal, I am stopped out, or its time to go to bed.

Hi Stewart,

Just came across your journal again after you went "missing" for a while. Welcome back and I hope that everything is fine with you.

I notice you don't use the stochastic indicator any more. Did you find that it lagged too much ? I tried it for a very short while but it didn't feel right for me and now I trade without any indicators. I trade bounces/breakouts at SR levels and also using waves (not elliot) to identify 123 set-ups (brilliant in trending markets). Stress-free trading ! lol!

Look forward to your future postings.


Regards,

Bakuli

hello stewart,

just came across your thread and I`m very interested in the way your trade on a higher TF, 4H/daily with the trend.

are you still looking for a 2nd trading system?
if you do, why not have your trending system and a system for a ranging market.

Hi Bakuli,
Thanks.
Posting at FF was not important to me throughout the last few months. I was exploring the 30m and 5min and 1 min chart very closely on the euro. I took hundreds of trades and learned.......that I dont want to do that!

I also had personal reasons (near death in the family and months of hospital/rehab visits), that pushed FF to the back of the priority list.

Re: Stochastic:
Correct. I do not use it anymore, but not because it lagged too much. The stochastic was never a 'trigger' to get me into a trade. Price action always triggered the trade (usually before the indicator would say "go"). I used the Stochastic as a means to help me know when price action would be expected to be successful. However, in the last 7 months I have become convinced that Support/Resistance levels are better than an indicator to tell you where price should stop/turn/stall. (However I still believe that s/r + an oscillator is even better than just s/r).

You mentioned that you trade bounces/breakouts at SR levels and also using waves to identify 123 set-ups......

I think that describes me too.

I am not so sure that I have a mechanical "system" any more. I have been watching the market full time for almost a year now and I sometimes I take trades that are countertrend on shorter charts too. If you look at my last two trades, you'll see they are both counter trend. One was a bounce off Resistance and the other was a breakout through support (on a 5 minute chart).

However, in general, the principles of this thread remain the basis of my trading at the moment.

To reiterate:
1. Trend (defined by moving averages)
2. Pull Backs (defined by an indicator or strong support/resistance)
3. Price action



Looking forward to posting many more trades and sharing my journey with everyone.

Best wishes
Stewart

Hi Yonnie,
I am now of the opinion that it is not necessary to have two "systems". Ranging markets range because support and resistance are stopping prices from continuing. Trending markets trend because support/resistance is failing in one direction.

Entry techniques for ranging markets can be the same as for trending. (As long as the time frame has enough pips offered). Its only the aggressiveness in profit taking that might need to change from one market condition to the next. I think the James16 thread demonstrates this concept. They just play price action at support/resistance and it covers both trending AND ranging markets.

With price action and s/r being critical to my trading.....I think I could trade in either direction too. Also, this is one of the reasons that I am happy with trading the 1 hour charts now (something I was not doing in March and April). The 1 hour charts show trends that dont show up on the 4 hour. So what looks like a 'range' on a 4 hour chart can present itself as a 'trend' on a 1 hour chart.

Thanks for your questions and comments. I like to use this thread as a place to clarify my thoughts and think "out loud". Hence my long replies to simple questions.

Best wishes
Stewart

This is your AUD trade short @ 0.70

so if you are trading a trending/ranging scenario, would it not have been better to see what price would do around this resistance area in order to go long if price breaks through the 0.70 area and the next resistance is sufficiently far away? more so because of the considerable momentum?
and to go short if price fails to go higher?

instead of taking the trade without any confirmation?

just trying to learn and thank you for your time.

ps: what do you think of the No Brainer Trades thread?

Hi Yonnie,
Thank you for your question. My reply is meant to provoke more thinking by both of us.

You asked ; "would it have been better to see price action around the resistance area?"

I think the question "would it have been better" is a dangerous question. Your question implies that it is possible to do "better".
Which indicates a level of striving for something...perhaps perfection.
I personally dont think that perfection in trading is realistic. And therefore I did not ask myself if it would have been 'better' to do something else.

Rather - I saw what I perceived to be a low-risk trade, and I took it.

Your question referred to 'confirmation'.

The No Brainer thread makes a very clear point....that by the time everyone else has received their confirmation, BRV is already up 20 to 60 pips; and his stop is at Break Even and everyone else is just entering with a 60 pips stop loss.

I think that speaks for itself!
.............................................................
Now to reply more clearly.

1. See the attached chart. Price was approaching a resistance area that has stopped price several times before. The upward move was also very large (and fast). It took a lot of money to move the price up that far....and someone with a lot of profit was going to want to Bank that profit. It seemed to me that the profit takers were probably going to do it at the previous resistance, which was also a round number; and their selling would drive the price down.

2. Could I have gotten a 'better' result if I had waited for confirmation with price action? I dont think so. I was not trading for a reversal in direction. I was trading to participate in a pull back. I think the strength of the move was strong enough to indicate that it may want to continue up. If I waited for price action to confirm the retracement.....my risk reward ratio would be up the creek....and it would no longer be a low-risk trade. It was not my intention to bank a million pips from this trade....so my entry made more sense to get in quick than to wait around for confirmation.

Thanks for your question. I understand why you ask it.
I think that I am changing (or perhaps have already changed) from needing a 'certain' and specific method, to realising that solid principles are all we need.

One trading principle is that uptrends continue when support holds and resistance fails. So buy near support and you have a chance of price moving up.

Another trading principle is that people want to take profits after a fast move. So selling at a resistance level, after a strong move, at clear resistance made sense to me.

I do not always take these blind trades. I think I generally prefer price action to confirm the direction change. But this one just seemed low risk at the time.

I hope my rambling is somehow helpful.
Best wishes
Stewart

Long on break out of 30 minute resistance.
Immediately went +20 pips.
Moved S/L to break even.

Stopped out a few minutes later as the all USD pairs reversed.

Again - this is not my preferred method of trading. However it looked low risk and I took the trade. I didn't gain anything.....but I might have gotten lucky too.

Eu is breaking out of a narrow range.
Its christmas and liquidity is thin (so I'm told) so I am open to the idea that this breakout will fail. I have therefore moved my s/l to BE (after +18 pips).

Entry was 1.4170
My initial stop was 25pips.
Now its time to be patient and let the market go where it wants.

Expected price to stall at 1.4200 but it went right threw it quickly to 1.4215 without a pause.
Next resistance on the 4 hour chart is 1.4280ish

Closed 50% at +36 pips.
S/L held at BreakEven on the remaining 50%.

Now up 68 pips.
Approaching 50% retracement of the move down. I expect price to stop on a dime at 1.4270 and have put my t/p there.
My weakness has always been to cut profits short.
I am now trailing my stop (currently at the 5 minute swing-low) which is still 60 pips away.

Closed 50% at +34 pips
Closed 50% at +100 pips

Total risk was 25pips on initial full position

Result 2.6% gain on 1% risk


Price did stop bang on the 50% retracement of the prior down move, (1.4272) and I exited 2 pips from that number with my TP. Price may yet continue upward, but I am happy with that result.

Took another break out in direction of trend on the eu.

Currently up 55 pips
Initial stop loss was 25 pips.

This was a 5 minute chart - but I liked how price had broken out, then retraced below 1.4300. 1.4300 was also a strong resistance from the middle of December (around the 18th and 19th).

I put my entry-stop 1 pip above the spike through 1.4300.

Entry was 1.4305.
Exited at +43 pips after price stalled at the 61.8% retrace of the move down from the December 18 high.

Entered short at 1.4077 on a breakout of the sideways moving range.
I tried to enter around 1.4092 but slippage was terrible.

I entered a TP at 1.4051 at the time I placed the order.
Which was hit within 2 minutes. I was hoping price would meander a bit and give me time to move my TP further away.

As I was in the process of trying to move TP, price hit my TP and took me out of the trade.

All this happened well before I could post anything.

What I did well: Waited until I saw clear support/resistance and entered as price broke through.

What I could have done better: Price was looking weak, and I waited to see it move before I placed my order. Slippage was 15 pips. I would have done better if I had placed a resting order at the breakout point.

Also - my arbitrary TP actually got in the way of this trade. My preference would have been to exit part of the position at the "50" and let the rest run. Since my platform doesn't allow this....perhaps I should place two orders instead of one in future.

Generally happy though. Its another win. My trading in December has been consistent so far.

As I type this, price has continued nearly 30 pips further than my TP without looking back at all. Cutting a profit is not good.

Still I made more than 1:1 on this trade.