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Attachments: 7am-9am Big Dog USD Breakout Strategy
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7am-9am Big Dog USD Breakout Strategy

  • #1,081
  • Dec 19, 2008 1:09pm Dec 19, 2008 1:09pm
Quoting Pips_Cruiser
ROTFL!! Man whatta DOG!
  • #1,082
  • Dec 20, 2008 1:33am Dec 20, 2008 1:33am
I hope everyone does well next week. I'm off for the holidays!

  • #1,083
  • Dec 20, 2008 1:38am Dec 20, 2008 1:38am
Hapy holydays man! Best of pips next year
  • #1,084
  • Dec 20, 2008 3:40am Dec 20, 2008 3:40am
I will hang on for two more days and then I am off too! Merry Christmas to all and read ya later!

Ciao!
Gnat
  • #1,085
  • Dec 21, 2008 11:59am Dec 21, 2008 11:59am
Has anyone used this system for more than a year? MT4 only goes back to Nov of 07, so I cant backtest any further. I know backtesting is useless to some degree, but the markets are very volatile and Im trying to prepare for when the markets become less volatile and the SL and TP has to be swithced up. Has anyone used this system is less volatile markets?
  • #1,086
  • Dec 21, 2008 5:12pm Dec 21, 2008 5:12pm
Quoting TraderJSS
Has anyone used this system for more than a year? MT4 only goes back to Nov of 07, so I cant backtest any further. I know backtesting is useless to some degree, but the markets are very volatile and Im trying to prepare for when the markets become less volatile and the SL and TP has to be swithced up. Has anyone used this system is less volatile markets?
Hi TraderJSS.

You have to read the rules for this system !!!

Since september we have a too high volatility in GBPUSD.

But you have to take a look on some other pairs.

Here you have a chart on EURUSD with this system:

-in the past two weeks we have only winning trades
(dont trade on Friday, blue in the chart, because most of the players in Europe and also some in the US are allready in the weekend !!!)



http://img258.imageshack.us/img258/9518/euzd4.gif


zeuzera
  • #1,087
  • Dec 21, 2008 6:59pm Dec 21, 2008 6:59pm
Thank you for your response. I have read the rules and understand the system completely. I have also been trading the system live since September. The reason for my question in this. Right now the system is doing great because volatility will open the breakout and keep it going creating positive pips. What I want to know is if anyone has traded this system when the markets are less volatile. My fear is when the markets start to cool down, we will start seeing more false breakouts because there will be a lack of volatility to carry the trade to TP levels. Does this make sense?

Quoting zeuzera
Hi TraderJSS.

You have to read the rules for this system !!!

Since september we have a too high volatility in GBPUSD.

But you have to take a look on some other pairs.

Here you have a chart on EURUSD with this system:

-in the past two weeks we have only winning trades
(dont trade on Friday, blue in the chart, because most of the players in Europe and also some in the US are allready in the weekend !!!)



http://img258.imageshack.us/img258/9518/euzd4.gif


zeuzera
  • #1,088
  • Dec 22, 2008 3:47am Dec 22, 2008 3:47am
Quoting TraderJSS
Thank you for your response. I have read the rules and understand the system completely. I have also been trading the system live since September. The reason for my question in this. Right now the system is doing great because volatility will open the breakout and keep it going creating positive pips. What I want to know is if anyone has traded this system when the markets are less volatile. My fear is when the markets start to cool down, we will start seeing more false breakouts because there will be a lack of volatilry to radcarry the trade to...
Hi TraderJSS.

I am trading different breakeouts (also in bonds and stock-index) for years.
Every "instrument" has his own "nature" !!!

Here are some rules for the brk GBPUSD:

-One of the major rules is "if we have a big move in one session, dont expect any nice breakout in the next session".
For this brkout on GBPUSD or EURUSD, if we have a big move during the first half of the europain session (befor US open), dont expect any brkout.

-for the London-brkout, take a look for a nice range 3-9 CET. This brkout is not so big and mostly dont have any influnce on the day.

-take a look what is going at about 12 oclock CET. Often we have a nice brkout range during this time. So if we have this brkout (allways has to be traded !!!), which is mostly "nice an big", dont expect any brkout during the NY-session.

General rules for brkout-trading:

-to measure the "quality" of the range, use indicators ADX and ATR:
--high quality means ADX low and ATR low (trade only this case!!!)
--bed quality means ADX low and ATR high
--dont take a trade if ADX is high

-wait for "close" outisde of the range (in this case GBPUSD, look for close outside on 5M)
--dont trade if this candle is too big (max 50% bigger than the previous two candels)
--SL is going on the opposite side on this "brkout-candle" (if this candle is too small, take the candle befor), so you can calculate your trade




Calculation:

-my risk is the hight of the brkout-candle
-my target (chance) has to be minimum 2,5 times bigger than my risk (allways !!!)
-my maximum target is the hight of the range

For example GBPUSD:

-since september we have an average candels of 35 pips during the opening hours in New York
-so our target has to be minimum 82 pips
-and we have an average range of something over 100 pips
-so mathematicly it is everything OK, but the devil is in detail !!!

Befor september we have an average candels of 15 pips and the average range of 60 pips. So we have theoretical chance/risk-ratio of 4 and now we have this ratio at 3 !!!

TraderJSS,
on this particular case (GBPUSD brkout 13-15 CET) our poistion (chance to winn !!! ) as brkout-traders befor september was 33% better then after september !!!

I hope this was the answer on your question.


zeuzera
  • #1,089
  • Dec 22, 2008 4:27am Dec 22, 2008 4:27am
Quoting zeuzera
Hi TraderJSS.

I am trading different breakeouts (also in bonds and stock-index) for years.
Every "instrument" has his own "nature" !!!

Here are some rules for the brk GBPUSD:

-One of the major rules is "if we have a big move in one session, dont expect any nice breakout in the next session".
For this brkout on GBPUSD or EURUSD, if we have a big move during the first half of the europain session (befor US open), dont expect any brkout.

[u]-for the London-brkout, take a look for a nice range 3-9 CET. This brkout...

Forexample, here my trades this morning on EUR-pairs:

EURJPY + 45 pips (risk was 15 pips)
EURCHF - 15 pips (risk 15 pips)
EURGBP + 45 pips (risk 15 pips)
EURUSD no trade because the range is too high because of the brkout of daily and weekly pivot

I have won 75 pips.

http://img374.imageshack.us/img374/9233/22decuz8.gif
  • #1,090
  • Dec 22, 2008 4:50am Dec 22, 2008 4:50am
Dear Zeuzera,

Nice to have your comments. You seem to be quite knowledgeable. Would you care to comment why you use the 3-9 cet range for an ORB trade. I have found the 7-9 cet to be more representative of the opening range. This is also is the conventional Opening range. I would guess if 3-9 lines up with 7-9 it may offer better odds because the range has more cause built in. Is there any other time based ranges you find of value.
  • #1,091
  • Dec 22, 2008 4:51am Dec 22, 2008 4:51am
Quoting zeuzera
Forexample, here my trades this morning on EUR-pairs:

EURJPY + 45 pips (risk was 15 pips)
EURCHF - 15 pips (risk 15 pips)
EURGBP + 45 pips (risk 15 pips)
EURUSD no trade because the range is too high because of the brkout of daily and weekly pivot

I have won 75 pips.

http://img374.imageshack.us/img374/9233/22decuz8.gif

Nice Trading, would you be so kind as to disclose the timing of your ranges and what MetaTrader Broker you use? The Boxes seem different depending on the currency you are trading, is this correct?

G
  • #1,092
  • Dec 22, 2008 5:56am Dec 22, 2008 5:56am
Quoting graeme_ie
Nice Trading, would you be so kind as to disclose the timing of your ranges and what MetaTrader Broker you use? The Boxes seem different depending on the currency you are trading, is this correct?

G

Hi graeme.

For EURJPY i have range 3-6 CET.
Explanation: this is an JPY-trade !!! If the range is low, it means that are no changes on JPY and propaility is very high that we will have a brkout on EUR in the start of the european session.

For EURCHF i have range 7-9 CET.
Its clear.

For EURGBP i have range 5-7 CET.
I dont know the reasons, but on this time-range i have a best result. After 7 CET volatility rapidly go up and i can not have my chance/risk-ratio that i need.

EURUSD i have range 7-9 CET.
This is an EUR-trade !!!
Its clear.



All this ranges are based on my own statistics.


zeuzera
  • #1,093
  • Dec 22, 2008 6:38am Dec 22, 2008 6:38am
Hi.

Here my trade at the 12 CET (11:45-12:15) range
This is an only GBP range !!!

EURGBP +45 pips (risk 15 pips)
GBPUSD no trade because the brkout-candle is to big (40 pips) and i dont like it when some pivot is in the range.

http://img523.imageshack.us/img523/1508/22dec2ro8.gif


zeuzera
  • #1,094
  • Dec 22, 2008 7:52am Dec 22, 2008 7:52am
Quoting zeuzera
Hi graeme.

For EURJPY i have range 3-6 CET.
Explanation: this is an JPY-trade !!! If the range is low, it means that are no changes on JPY and propaility is very high that we will have a brkout on EUR in the start of the european session.

For EURCHF i have range 7-9 CET.
Its clear.

For EURGBP i have range 5-7 CET.
I dont know the reasons, but on this time-range i have a best result. After 7 CET volatility rapidly go up and i can not have my chance/risk-ratio that i need.

EURUSD i have range 7-9 CET.
This is an EUR-trade !!!
Its clear....

Thank you so much that is very insightful research - good trading to you.

Graeme
  • #1,095
  • Dec 22, 2008 9:34am Dec 22, 2008 9:34am
This is what I was looking for, I will have to do some more learning, but this is a good start. Thanks for your response.


Quoting zeuzera
Hi TraderJSS.

I am trading different breakeouts (also in bonds and stock-index) for years.
Every "instrument" has his own "nature" !!!

Here are some rules for the brk GBPUSD:

-One of the major rules is "if we have a big move in one session, dont expect any nice breakout in the next session".
For this brkout on GBPUSD or EURUSD, if we have a big move during the first half of the europain session (befor US open), dont expect any brkout.

[u]-for the London-brkout, take a look for a nice range 3-9 CET. This brkout...
  • #1,096
  • Dec 22, 2008 5:59pm Dec 22, 2008 5:59pm
Quoting zeuzera
Forexample, here my trades this morning on EUR-pairs:

EURJPY + 45 pips (risk was 15 pips)
EURCHF - 15 pips (risk 15 pips)
EURGBP + 45 pips (risk 15 pips)
EURUSD no trade because the range is too high because of the brkout of daily and weekly pivot

I have won 75 pips.

http://img374.imageshack.us/img374/9233/22decuz8.gif
zeuzera

Which cross do you find the most consistent and profitable in your opinion?

graeme
  • #1,097
  • Dec 22, 2008 8:17pm Dec 22, 2008 8:17pm
Quoting zeuzera
Hi TraderJSS.

General rules for brkout-trading:

-to measure the "quality" of the range, use indicators ADX and ATR:
--high quality means ADX low and ATR low (trade only this case!!!)
--bed quality means ADX low and ATR high
--dont take a trade if ADX is high



zeuzera
Hi Zeuzera,

When you refer to ADX and ATR, being to high and low what time frame are referring to ? Or is it just a visual scan of the previous few hours ?
It's NOT GAMBLING when the odds are in your favor
  • #1,098
  • Dec 22, 2008 8:18pm Dec 22, 2008 8:18pm
Quoting zeuzera
Hi TraderJSS.

You have to read the rules for this system !!!

Since september we have a too high volatility in GBPUSD.

But you have to take a look on some other pairs.

Here you have a chart on EURUSD with this system:

-in the past two weeks we have only winning trades
(dont trade on Friday, blue in the chart, because most of the players in Europe and also some in the US are allready in the weekend !!!)



http://img258.imageshack.us/img258/9518/euzd4.gif


zeuzera
You never trade on fridays ? Or it was only for this friday?
  • #1,099
  • Dec 23, 2008 2:58am Dec 23, 2008 2:58am
Quoting graeme_ie
zeuzera

Which cross do you find the most consistent and profitable in your opinion?

graeme

Hi graeme.

All major crosses are on particular time-ranges profitable. But also we have to take a look on whole market, volatility,...
Also important to take a look on the currency-index.


zeuzera
  • #1,100
  • Dec 23, 2008 3:08am Dec 23, 2008 3:08am
Quoting User Name
Hi Zeuzera,

When you refer to ADX and ATR, being to high and low what time frame are referring to ? Or is it just a visual scan of the previous few hours ?
Hi user name.

The time frame is allways 5M.
And the factor on the indicator is depend of the lenght of the time-range. Example:
7-9 CET for EURUSD
There are 24 of 5M-candels. So it could be usefull to take an factor for ADX and ATR that is bigger than 24. I like 50% more, so it is 36.

zeuzera
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