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Daily GBP/JPY analysis

  • #1,361
  • Mar 13, 2007 11:43am Mar 13, 2007 11:43am
Quoting NasdaqNinja
yup, im new to this pair and it scares the heck out of me, moves hundreds of pips in a day. i dont know how u guys do it, might take a few weeks to get used to. right now it looks to me that in the next few days it could either have a monster downside move if it breaks 225 and then 222, or could start retracing. who knows?!?!
this is the one to learn to trade thats for sure.
i started in eur/usd, then onto usd/jpy and have now ended up with gbp/jpy

being scared is a good thing.

the pair can be predictable after you watch it for awhile....
--post hoc ergo propter hoc--
  • #1,362
  • Mar 13, 2007 11:44am Mar 13, 2007 11:44am
i just closed out some shorts from 228.78 at 225.28
i think it will retrace back to the 227.50ish ( you have to use ISH with this pair) before going down to 222-221
will reenter at 226 50 and 227 50 again short
  • #1,363
  • Mar 13, 2007 11:45am Mar 13, 2007 11:45am
Quoting NasdaqNinja
yup, im new to this pair and it scares the heck out of me, moves hundreds of pips in a day. i dont know how u guys do it, might take a few weeks to get used to. right now it looks to me that in the next few days it could either have a monster downside move if it breaks 225 and then 222, or could start retracing. who knows?!?!
Around 13 months ago when I first saw this pair move 200 pips down to 202 and gaining back to 204 within 30 minutes... I didn't feel fear... I felt I found my mustang.

Learn to read the price action and use Fibonacci. You are set. Oh yeah to guess it will be a 10 pips move or "400" pips use Standard Deviation :-)
  • #1,364
  • Mar 13, 2007 11:47am Mar 13, 2007 11:47am
I shorted at 227.19 and covered at 225.88. Shorted again at 225.86 and again at 225.83 and covered both at 225.60. Now I'm back in long at 225.62. Been a prosperous morning so far.
  • #1,365
  • Mar 13, 2007 11:48am Mar 13, 2007 11:48am
Quoting Dexis
Yes, I would go long If price breaks 226.45 and keeps moving upwards, ELSE, if there is another test of 226.45 and it fails to break 226.45, expecting price to go south, especially if it breaks 225.00
So it just broke 225.45,and where is your next resistance level ?
226.50 is my answer.
(Forget about this!)
  • #1,366
  • Mar 13, 2007 12:00pm Mar 13, 2007 12:00pm
My next resistance on my chart is 226.15

I'm short from 225.87
  • #1,367
  • Mar 13, 2007 12:07pm Mar 13, 2007 12:07pm
Got out of my long for a small loss, now short again at 225.46
  • #1,368
  • Mar 13, 2007 12:11pm Mar 13, 2007 12:11pm
nice little head and shoulders formed on a 5 minute chart.
i'm staying on the side till either 225 gives or we see 226 again....then another short
--post hoc ergo propter hoc--
  • #1,369
  • Mar 13, 2007 12:18pm Mar 13, 2007 12:18pm
Quoting Basilides
A few
I just entered a nice short on EUR/GBP. The Euro is way overbought imo, though I wouldnt be surprised to see the E/GB higher to form a nice tripple neg. divergence on the daily (from the double currently there) before it tumbles. On relative terms, the EUR.JPY might be a better short than GBP/JPY now?
Are you still short on EUR/GBP? what is your target?
Thanks
  • #1,370
  • Mar 13, 2007 12:27pm Mar 13, 2007 12:27pm
Quoting Monk
nice little head and shoulders formed on a 5 minute chart.
i'm staying on the side till either 225 gives or we see 226 again....then another short
I kept hearing "head and shoulders" of the chart, and I have checked it out on 5M chart.
Yes, it looks like what you said.
May I ask you, what will happen after the head and shoulders formed on a 5 minute chart ?
  • #1,371
  • Mar 13, 2007 12:32pm Mar 13, 2007 12:32pm
could signify a drop.
problem is this is on a 5 minute chart......so this may only be 40-50 pips.

which it did just drop

i'll do you guys a favor......going to the store to buy smokes.....most times i do this i come back to see the move i've been waiting on has happened.

run up the street...come back.....price has dropped 200 pips

time and again it happens.......but need smokes.
--post hoc ergo propter hoc--
  • #1,372
  • Mar 13, 2007 12:37pm Mar 13, 2007 12:37pm
Just broke 225, down we go.
  • #1,373
  • Mar 13, 2007 12:41pm Mar 13, 2007 12:41pm
Quoting Monk
i'll do you guys a favor......going to the store to buy smokes.....most times i do this i come back to see the move i've been waiting on has happened.
Haha awesome, it worked.
  • #1,374
  • Mar 13, 2007 12:45pm Mar 13, 2007 12:45pm
Quoting imbiber
Haha awesome, it worked.
Lets us know everytime you go get some smokes! lol
  • #1,375
  • Mar 13, 2007 12:55pm Mar 13, 2007 12:55pm
Quoting fireslayer26
Lets us know everytime you go get some smokes! lol
funny how the universe works......

to bad i think it will be short lived. i am short from 225.20
going to let this one ride.

keep in mind this pair loves trapping us....so seeing 227 again is not out of the question over the next several hours. i just see this as an opp to sell again.
--post hoc ergo propter hoc--
  • #1,376
  • Mar 13, 2007 1:02pm Mar 13, 2007 1:02pm
Yeah, I closed out my short. Looks like its on the rise again..... but then again, I could be wrong.
  • #1,377
  • Mar 13, 2007 1:09pm Mar 13, 2007 1:09pm
I'm hanging on to my short, but barely :-)

It's one of those do I or don't I !!
  • #1,378
  • Mar 13, 2007 1:43pm Mar 13, 2007 1:43pm
price action looks very similar to this morning before we went from 225.10 to 226.50

shorts beware.

wait all damn day for a break of 225 and all we get is 30 pips down.....
--post hoc ergo propter hoc--
  • #1,379
  • Mar 13, 2007 2:04pm Mar 13, 2007 2:04pm
mmm... could it be teasing me???
  • #1,380
  • Mar 13, 2007 2:10pm Mar 13, 2007 2:10pm
are there any bulls out there? looks like the shorting has lost its steam and gbp/jpy is stalled at 224.99. will profit taking push it to the upside?i see medium term resistance there, but on the 1hr we have a triple bottom. on the weekly we have a long pin bar signifying a reversal. what do you guys think?
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