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Daily GBP/JPY analysis

  • #1,341
  • Mar 13, 2007 9:59am Mar 13, 2007 9:59am
Quoting superdezign
wow, how many lots do you trade?
A few
I just entered a nice short on EUR/GBP. The Euro is way overbought imo, though I wouldnt be surprised to see the E/GB higher to form a nice tripple neg. divergence on the daily (from the double currently there) before it tumbles. On relative terms, the EUR.JPY might be a better short than GBP/JPY now?
  • #1,342
  • Mar 13, 2007 10:03am Mar 13, 2007 10:03am
Quoting Geldmeister
Hi all admirers of the beast.

I only started trading G-J a few weeks ago and like to ask advice from those with more experience and feel for the pair.

Since the start of 2007 I have been successful with my system averaging 30 pips profit per day with only occasional lapses of discipline... one of those made me keep a long @ 233.10 justifying it with the interest gained and assuming or rather hoping (I know hope and FX don't mix at all) that it will come back up at some point. Now whilst I can stomach the drawdown and keep it in check with shorting where possible it is far from ideal and wonder how long I should live with this position.


Should I close it right now?
Should I wait for the next peak in this what could be big drop? 227 or maybe 228?
Should I stick with it as there is a good chance it will go back up.

What got me worried was someone's recent analyis comparing with what happened after a peak in 1998 where a huge drop was seen - surely I would not want to wait years for it to turn around.

Any advice greatly appreciated!
Did you hedge or your long position is just a naked trade ?
You may be hedging this long position to fix your lost.
Hedging is to sell 1 position and long another position, so your lost will stay just that much. Then if market big drop, close your sell position. When market comes back close your long position.
(Suggestion: Only close short/long position when a market BIG drop/jump happened.)
  • #1,343
  • Mar 13, 2007 10:13am Mar 13, 2007 10:13am
does any one feel this retracement could go to the 232 level?
All hard work brings a profit, but mere talk leads only to poverty.
  • #1,344
  • Mar 13, 2007 10:13am Mar 13, 2007 10:13am
whats the next resistance? is there another one at 226 level?
my next fibo is near 227.50
  • #1,345
  • Mar 13, 2007 10:18am Mar 13, 2007 10:18am
Quoting Sami7
does any one feel this retracement could go to the 232 level?
Thanks God, I've closed all my short postitions.
I don't know.
  • #1,346
  • Mar 13, 2007 10:31am Mar 13, 2007 10:31am
Quoting trader8686
Thanks God, I've closed all my short postitions.
I don't know.
We may be loosing steam to the upside.....
All hard work brings a profit, but mere talk leads only to poverty.
  • #1,347
  • Mar 13, 2007 10:40am Mar 13, 2007 10:40am
The Price is banging 226.44 level, that is a S1 pivot line, if it will not break trough, we'll have a nice resistance at this price, if it does break through, I'm long till 227.51. crazy pair
  • #1,348
  • Mar 13, 2007 10:45am Mar 13, 2007 10:45am
what do you guys think of a long position trade, it looks to me like the gbp/jpy is sitting on support in the 236.25 area with the 23.6 fibo on the daily chart. also on the weekly , it is showing a pin bar to the downside, suggesting upside potential. any thoughts?

NasdaqNinja
  • #1,349
  • Mar 13, 2007 10:47am Mar 13, 2007 10:47am
So far PA failed to break 226.45, I will just wait a few more minutes before opening short position. It was a succesful test of new resistance line, so we might see some serious movement south onwards... let's see how it turns out
  • #1,350
  • Mar 13, 2007 10:48am Mar 13, 2007 10:48am
Down it goes...
Let's wait a bit more

ADDON: Please keep in mind that there might be another test of 226.45, if on the second time it fails to break this level, there sould be some bearish attitude for this pair

This is not a recommendation to buy or sell
  • #1,351
  • Mar 13, 2007 10:54am Mar 13, 2007 10:54am
Quoting Dexis
Down it goes...
Let's wait a bit more
Got any idea of the price for re-entry the short ?
  • #1,352
  • Mar 13, 2007 10:59am Mar 13, 2007 10:59am
Quoting trader8686
Got any idea of the price for re-entry the short ?
Hello trader 8686, at the moment it's hard to tell, BUT, if You see price go back to 226.45, and if it fails to break that level, there is a high probability it will go 225.40 and more. The bearish candle I see on my 30 minute chart does not give enough info about future movements, we need to see engulfment pattern in order to consider shorting
  • #1,353
  • Mar 13, 2007 11:06am Mar 13, 2007 11:06am
i got in short at the open of 12oclock bar on the hourly chart, the pin bar off of 225.95 was enough for me tp just above 225.45. well see how it does.
  • #1,354
  • Mar 13, 2007 11:13am Mar 13, 2007 11:13am
15M chart TL was broken.
  • #1,355
  • Mar 13, 2007 11:13am Mar 13, 2007 11:13am
http://img407.imageshack.us/img407/6821/gbpjpyeb0.gif
For the past 3 days I see there is a strong support around 225.90. As mentioned earlier, if price breaks 226.45, then I will consider going long big time. At the moment I'm not pulling the trigger, too risky
  • #1,356
  • Mar 13, 2007 11:20am Mar 13, 2007 11:20am
Quoting Dexis
http://img407.imageshack.us/img407/6821/gbpjpyeb0.gif
For the past 3 days I see there is a strong support around 225.90. As mentioned earlier, if price breaks 226.45, then I will consider going long big time. At the moment I'm not pulling the trigger, too risky
Did you say, going long ? But, we are still going south.
  • #1,357
  • Mar 13, 2007 11:24am Mar 13, 2007 11:24am
Quoting trader8686
Did you say, going long ? But, we are still going south.
Yes, I would go long If price breaks 226.45 and keeps moving upwards, ELSE, if there is another test of 226.45 and it fails to break 226.45, expecting price to go south, especially if it breaks 225.00
  • #1,358
  • Mar 13, 2007 11:27am Mar 13, 2007 11:27am
i closed out my short, i dont think theres too much downside potential from here. im with dexis here, i think the best thing to do is wait for resistance to be broken in the 226.45 area and then take a long position. im letting this pair consolidate a bit before i trade it again.
  • #1,359
  • Mar 13, 2007 11:32am Mar 13, 2007 11:32am
Quoting NasdaqNinja
i closed out my short, i dont think theres too much downside potential from here. im with dexis here, i think the best thing to do is wait for resistance to be broken in the 226.45 area and then take a long position. im letting this pair consolidate a bit before i trade it again.
That makes two of us taking the "NOT TO TRADE" position
  • #1,360
  • Mar 13, 2007 11:36am Mar 13, 2007 11:36am
yup, im new to this pair and it scares the heck out of me, moves hundreds of pips in a day. i dont know how u guys do it, might take a few weeks to get used to. right now it looks to me that in the next few days it could either have a monster downside move if it breaks 225 and then 222, or could start retracing. who knows?!?!
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