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4 Hour Strategy (MACD)

  • #2,421
  • Mar 13, 2007 5:32am Mar 13, 2007 5:32am
Went short with US/CAD @ 1.1687
MACD showing TC.
Crossed 89 MA to the south.
Double top at 1.8117 (sort of)

TP just above a TL at 1.1623

I broke one of my cardinal rules: wait until the line is completely painted in MACD. But...I have to leave for work.
I know I should not have done this and the pips god will certainly punish me.
  • #2,422
  • Mar 13, 2007 6:04am Mar 13, 2007 6:04am
Ok. My 4hr candle just closed. It continues to paint red on the MACD. But the 1 hr is telling a different story.

I will let this one pass.
  • #2,423
  • Mar 13, 2007 6:34am Mar 13, 2007 6:34am
Guys and Gals,

You may want to check this one out, I don,t have time to do Anal.

Got to work
  • #2,424
  • Mar 13, 2007 6:47am Mar 13, 2007 6:47am
why suddenly all the USD pairs have a strong move. Any news release?
  • #2,425
  • Mar 13, 2007 6:50am Mar 13, 2007 6:50am
Would anyone be able totell me if this is a trend continuation pattern on eur following the slip through zero and pull back up on the 4hr macd? thanks...
Never say never.
  • #2,426
  • Edited 8:25am Mar 13, 2007 6:54am | Edited 8:25am
Quoting alcastro
I was ready to short this pair, but the 1 hr MACD is showing a strong reversal to the long side (sort of a RB but more pointed than rounded). I gues I will wait a little longer.

Any thoughts?
sorry didn't post this earlier, but was sleeping.
My thoughts: Enter a long position

Reasons: 1)yesterday price broke upper T/L and 89sma(bullish mood).
2)price retraced to that T/L, 89sma, 21ema, and 38.2% Fib level (lots of resistance to break there)
3) 4hr chart formed nice doji
4) 1hr chart had spinning top
5) 15minute chart at 1-2-3 reversal pattern after pullback
6) news was positive EUR
7) Even though 4hr MACD didn't give a buy signal yet, with all the resistance at "reason 2 above" my s/l was only 20pips. R:R was good.

Entered 2mini at 1.3159 and took profit at 1.3189....+30pips each(60net)
still have some mini's in play, and s/l at breakeven
Update: closed 2more mini's for +50each(100net).
Final update: closed last 2 mini's for +50each(100net). 260pips on this trade.

Just so everyone knows...I'm far from a good trader still. The 260 I made today only puts me at +40 for the week...made some bad decisions on Sunday night. We live and learn...win&lose! Hope we get some more setups like this later in the week!
  • #2,427
  • Edited 7:28am Mar 13, 2007 7:17am | Edited 7:28am
Quoting Tw0eleven
sorry didn't post this earlier, but was sleeping.
My thoughts: Enter a long position

Reasons: 1)yesterday price broke upper T/L and 89sma(bullish mood).
2)price retraced to that T/L, 89sma, 21ema, and 38.2% Fib level (lots of resistance to break there)
3) 4hr chart formed nice doji
4) 1hr chart had spinning top
5) 15minute chart at 1-2-3 reversal pattern after pullback
6) news was positive EUR
7) Even though 4hr MACD didn't give a buy signal yet, with all the resistance at "reason 2 above" my s/l was only 20pips. R:R was good.

Entered 2mini at 1.3159 and took profit at 1.3189....+30pips
still have some mini's in play, and s/l at breakeven

I second your way of thinking. Seems like the price is very hesitant to go under 1.3180 level which, to me, was the resistance yesterday. It stays above it. I like the doji which bounced off 89SMA. I will go long once or if it breaks 1.3200 in the next candles.

btw, Hermit, I am using your 'minutes-left' indicator. Great stuff!

I opened a short position with aud/usd @0.7855. SL plus 50 pips plus slippage. Why? This pair intrigues me, really..
  • #2,428
  • Mar 13, 2007 7:24am Mar 13, 2007 7:24am
I'm still trying to get my head around your nesting dolls. I was curious if it worked on all timeframes or just the daily or 4hr? Last night I believe I noticed one on the eur/usd pair, but it was on the 15minute chart. I entered a long trade...but was it just luck? Or can you use the nesting doll idea on lower timeframes?

Example: see chart
Attached Image
  • #2,429
  • Edited 10:34am Mar 13, 2007 7:32am | Edited 10:34am
Quoting Tw0eleven
I'm still trying to get my head around your nesting dolls. I was curious if it worked on all timeframes or just the daily or 4hr? Last night I believe I noticed one on the eur/usd pair, but it was on the 15minute chart. I entered a long trade...but was it just luck? Or can you use the nesting doll idea on lower timeframes?

Example: see chart
Ah! You've hit the bear's eye! I never tested it on 15min timeframes but I'm sure it can work as you just demonstrated. There have to be other supportive price actions around your transaction which you should study and maybe we can take this thread elsewhere. Great work and a sharp eye - you've beaten the bear.
  • #2,430
  • Mar 13, 2007 7:36am Mar 13, 2007 7:36am
Quoting tamkras
Ah! You've hit the bear's eye, my friend! I never tested it on 15min timeframes but I'm sure it can work as you just demonstrated. There have to be other supportive price actions around your transaction which you should study and maybe we can take this thread elsewhere. Great work and a sharp eye - you've beaten the bear.
Thanks my friend. It's coming along, slowly...but it's coming. Let me know if another thread does start with the "nesting dolls" theme. Happy Pips!
  • #2,431
  • Mar 13, 2007 8:41am Mar 13, 2007 8:41am
Quoting fxhermit
Here it is. Enjoy.
Thanks, hermit
  • #2,432
  • Mar 13, 2007 8:57am Mar 13, 2007 8:57am
Quoting Tw0eleven
sorry didn't post this earlier, but was sleeping.
My thoughts: Enter a long position

Reasons: 1)yesterday price broke upper T/L and 89sma(bullish mood).
2)price retraced to that T/L, 89sma, 21ema, and 38.2% Fib level (lots of resistance to break there)
3) 4hr chart formed nice doji
4) 1hr chart had spinning top
5) 15minute chart at 1-2-3 reversal pattern after pullback
6) news was positive EUR
7) Even though 4hr MACD didn't give a buy signal yet, with all the resistance at "reason 2 above" my s/l was only 20pips. R:R was good.

Entered 2mini at 1.3159 and took profit at 1.3189....+30pips each(60net)
still have some mini's in play, and s/l at breakeven
Update: closed 2more mini's for +50each(100net).
Final update: closed last 2 mini's for +50each(100net). 260pips on this trade.

Just so everyone knows...I'm far from a good trader still. The 260 I made today only puts me at +40 for the week...made some bad decisions on Sunday night. We live and learn...win&lose! Hope we get some more setups like this later in the week!
Two Eleven,

I think you are bieng modest. Your analysis was right on the spot. You believed in it, your traded it with confidence and therefore got your profit.

Congratulations. My analysis was not as deep as yours, I just saw the MACD and the 89EMA and decided to hold...which proved to be right. But have I done a little more analysis as you did, would probably have gone long, as you did. Well...I am learning from everybody in here.
  • #2,433
  • Mar 13, 2007 9:08am Mar 13, 2007 9:08am
Quoting alcastro
Hi Pilgrim,

good to know that you are getting your pips back.

Just for the sake of all of us here, can you let us know what were you doing in your first, losing, trades and what did you change in order to start winning? How were you applying the rules in those first trades, and how did you change them in order to improve your winning rate?
Alcastro,

Primarily I was not waiting for 4 hour confirmation and looking at the 1 hour only. This was based on my belief that it would get me in too far from price action, it was too far behind the curve so to speak. A very irrational belief on my part that has cost me. I am looking to the 4 hour as my primary signal with entry after the confirmation bar.

To quote FXHermit, "wait for confirmation to take the trade and the trade will likely go in your favour because the market can not go against its own momentum at that point. By the time there is a pull back you should have already taken profit and/or closed out or have the remainder of your position in a free trade", in my opinion that sums it up with this system.

There really are two distinct parts to this system, the trend reversal part (round tops and round bottoms) and the trend continuation part (trend continuation patterns). There are distinctions between these two parts that must be learned. When you throw in the EMA's, trendlines, and fib levels you have a very robust system for both trending and ranging markets. The challenge of course is putting it all together in REAL TIME.

I pulled the trigger on EUR/USD at the opening of the 8:00 GMT candle at 1.3186 sl 1.3161, I took profits at 1.3117 for 31 pips. I was behind price action but I wanted to wait to see how the 4:00 GMT candle closed, it paid off.

Thanks to everyone here, I am learning MUCHO!!

Pilgrim
  • #2,434
  • Mar 13, 2007 9:11am Mar 13, 2007 9:11am
Quoting alcastro
Two Eleven,

I think you are bieng modest. Your analysis was right on the spot. You believed in it, your traded it with confidence and therefore got your profit.

Congratulations. My analysis was not as deep as yours, I just saw the MACD and the 89EMA and decided to hold...which proved to be right. But have I done a little more analysis as you did, would probably have gone long, as you did. Well...I am learning from everybody in here.
Thanks for the kind words alcastro. This time I was correct. But on Sunday night, I was one of the eager ones and sold the eur at 1.3130 thinking it would have gone down at the 21ema. But I didn't do a good analysis then and it ended up costing me. I'm just fortunate to have made up what I lost with the trade today.
I give lots of credit to Phillip, his system and teachings. It's very profitable if you stay disciplined and follow the rules. Like many others have said on here, the biggest thing I can recommend the new traders out there is to be Patient! "Let the trades come to you!"
  • #2,435
  • Edited 10:12am Mar 13, 2007 9:14am | Edited 10:12am
Quoting Tw0eleven
Thanks my friend. It's coming along, slowly...but it's coming. Let me know if another thread does start with the "nesting dolls" theme. Happy Pips!
So, it is working, right? I noticed also from Dire's recent post that it worked in 1hr timeframe. I'll be happy if someone reading this thread can write an EA for the nesting top and bottom pattern. Tw's post and chart has all the IDEAL inputs. Out of respect to this thread, please, kindly PM me with the questions. As a rule of thumb I respond to all PM's and once we have something stable, we can forward-test it in public. Tw, Dire, thank you very much for taking the trades. I am, indeed, happy.

Donna (aka Pips) is right in her observation that the trade based on the nesting pattern keeps your SL tight. That's why I like the pattern.
  • #2,436
  • Mar 13, 2007 9:25am Mar 13, 2007 9:25am
its a great system, i knew however that the euro would test the 3200 level, I think good entries are when price starts to curl in macd from the -45 +45 band this is like an overbought or oversold level kind of like stochastics.

Fundamentals still play a role, regardless of what system ur using... but this system looks like it has alot of potential.
  • #2,437
  • Mar 13, 2007 9:51am Mar 13, 2007 9:51am
Quoting pips4uandme
Steve Nison's Japanese Candlestick Charting Techniques (pricey but well worth it -- think it is in th $80 range at amazon).

Few weeks back, you can have this e-book for free from this site. I recomend for newbie to grab all the stuff inside here

Happy Trading
  • #2,438
  • Mar 13, 2007 10:03am Mar 13, 2007 10:03am
Quoting jarroo
Here's with the MAs. Could come down to 21 ema.
Jarro,

On the EUR/GBP there is also MACD divergence on the daily, price is currently right at the 61.8 retracement of 4/05/06 high and the 1/22/07 low, possible triple top in this area. Waiting to see how the 8:00 GMT candle ends up, may enter on the opening of 12:00 candle with a stop at .6852. Target of the 89 EMA on daily and 4 hour around .6757-67 possible, or trendline support .6787.
  • #2,439
  • Mar 13, 2007 10:14am Mar 13, 2007 10:14am
Have placed limit entry long at 3182
SL 3153
3 lots with TP at 3218 and 3249, third one no tp
MACD TC signal
Limit entry is just above 50% of low and close of signal bar

Please comment!

Scott
  • #2,440
  • Mar 13, 2007 10:55am Mar 13, 2007 10:55am
Quoting jarroo
The three sisters happen earier this month, on the 5th of March. Its a good observation noting the time. Nice Chardra. I'll be watching.

Jim

Very good observation but they have to be uninterupted and in sequence. You dont trade on it alone as it only give you the emotion and motion of the market. When the third one appear you wait for the MACD signal and take it. It normally happens within a triangle. You will find them quite regular on shorter time frames.
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