EUR/USD flagging south this coming week | Forex Factory

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EUR/USD flagging south this coming week

  • #1
  • First Post: Edited Jun 4, 2011 4:56am Dec 13, 2008 3:23am | Edited Jun 4, 2011 4:56am
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  • #2
  • Dec 13, 2008 7:51am Dec 13, 2008 7:51am
Quoting Jade Gate
These are 4H charts with triangles (wedge flags) very clearly forming, major resistance evident at 1.34 for the EUR/USD, a former support level for this currency.

Similarly, the USD/CHF is now close to or on support also at 1.17, also a former point of resistance several weeks ago, but now (likely) to act as support.

Note the lower wicks on the Swissy, these are called "quad-tips", they are neatly lined up, you can draw a horizontal line through them, indicating a strong base of support is being laid at this level with a high probability...
Both are in continuation pattens Jade.

I see what you're saying but the euro has busted out this week. I was thinking minor pull back to break out above the trend line.

But these triangle cont patterns anit complete till they break out.

Nice post
  • #3
  • Dec 13, 2008 8:05am Dec 13, 2008 8:05am
I agree with u Apo these patterns are basically continuation patterns. Lets see how they pan out next week.
Nice one though Jade
He that is from above is above all.
  • #4
  • Dec 13, 2008 8:44am Dec 13, 2008 8:44am
One of the things of particular interest in these comparative charts, is the way in which the Euro has pushed hard against this ceiling for much longer, even while the Swissy continued lower. The longer this resistance on the Euro goes on, the weaker it gets.... when the collapse eventually comes it is usually swift and deep.

I'm expecting Asian open to trade the Euro short (auto bail-out Mk 2 in the wind) but then to re-assert another push to break 1.34 when Europe opens. Some likelihood that failing to break this ceiling in the first session of this week and proviso the USD holds up above 1.17, when the US session opens, it may be the point at which the Euro slips over the edge.

If of course, it does manage a clear break of the 1.34 ceiling (which does seem quite unlikely given many failed attempts already), then it will of course go on another bull run north.
  • #5
  • Dec 13, 2008 11:41am Dec 13, 2008 11:41am
Jade -

For what it's worth - I agree.

However, having said that....if 1.34 gives way, we are going to see 1.37.

These are not continuation patterns though.
  • #6
  • Dec 13, 2008 3:21pm Dec 13, 2008 3:21pm
- Jade

Agreed. Price action will retrace next week but before the week is over, bulls will control the move. More bad news for USD = more good news for EUR.

Looking at the chart ... price was abruptly held up at 1.34xx level, which will probably move the market down a bit. Eventually the market will break 1.34xx and head to 1.37xx.
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  • #7
  • Dec 13, 2008 4:16pm Dec 13, 2008 4:16pm
Agreed guys that the next target if it breaks 1.34170 again (the highest point on it's minor incursions above 1.3400 before being immediately pushed back down again) will be 1.3700.

That said, it is also worth noting that each incursion above 1.3400 has been a lower high since the 1.34170 peak, indicating that support for a move north is weakening. Inclined to think this weakening is occuring because the Euro is living on borrowed time in a deflation climate that is rapidly gathering steam. Some really bad Euro data out last week that market pretty much ignored, the risk profile in the Euro is increasing (imo). Many of the analysts are saying that the Euro is going to be whacked at some point because the Euro-zone has not done enough soon enough to off-set the problems it is facing, and Trichet seems to be embracing denial.

Maybe the Euro strength last week has been more a case of the lesser of two evils? Another interesting week ahead, that's for certain.
  • #8
  • Dec 13, 2008 5:07pm Dec 13, 2008 5:07pm
No one knows which way it will go?
it just might go up... or it might go down ....LOL

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TEB
  • #9
  • Dec 13, 2008 5:32pm Dec 13, 2008 5:32pm
Now, being the bullish trend and strength of the euro, a fact, The dollar index once traded 120+. The week earlier could have just been a correction... The dollar has much to go... Comparing most other currencies, the Euro has managed to survive the recession, so far, even failing to break the previous monthly low at 1.1638. After that, it`s up to nature to shape the trend. I`m expecting a pull back to at least 1.3165 which happens to be the previous week`s pivot, if not any lower, in a grossly bearish trend.
  • #10
  • Dec 13, 2008 6:21pm Dec 13, 2008 6:21pm
How come no one has thrown a fib on it.
Prediction is an expensive hobby, particularly in times like these and the time of year, anything can happen. Best to just play it by ear w/o a bias...
In trading, there is no bullshit. You either make money or you don't.
  • #11
  • Dec 13, 2008 6:36pm Dec 13, 2008 6:36pm
Quoting mrgreen
How come no one has thrown a fib on it.
Prediction is an expensive hobby, particularly in times like these and the time of year, anything can happen. Best to just play it by ear w/o a bias...
true. But without a bias, there is no trend!.
  • #12
  • Dec 13, 2008 6:48pm Dec 13, 2008 6:48pm
Something I read, printed out and now display on my monitor:

If you are against flow and remain to be stubborn because of ego or any other reason, it will kill you. You have to "give" and yield to the flow and pulse of the markets. Let her teach you her rhythm; don't impose any of your thoughts on her. -FTI-
Quoting zapper
true. But without a bias, there is no trend!.
In trading, there is no bullshit. You either make money or you don't.
  • #13
  • Dec 13, 2008 6:55pm Dec 13, 2008 6:55pm
Attached Image


there is so much going on, no one can tell

As there are big shoes that are going to drop this week
and it will be the reason for the coming moves

I would bet on more north- but I also will keep my power dry
until after the start & well into the London time

Cheers

TEB
  • #14
  • Dec 13, 2008 7:05pm Dec 13, 2008 7:05pm
Quoting TEB63
Attachment

there is so much going on, no one can tell

As there are big shoes that are going to drop this week
and it will be the reason for the coming moves

I would bet on more north- but I also will keep my power dry
until after the start & well into the London time

Cheers

TEB
The week failed to end with a well burnt candle and a nice sharp wick. So, we might have to see it the month would show a good big wick with well burnt candle..
  • #15
  • Dec 13, 2008 8:13pm Dec 13, 2008 8:13pm
Quoting clockwork71
Jade -

For what it's worth - I agree.

However, having said that....if 1.34 gives way, we are going to see 1.37.

These are not continuation patterns though.
yes they're clock text book examples at that.

EUR/USD is in a asending triangle or what's called a bullish continuation pattern.

Swissy is in a descending triangle or known as a bearish continuation pattern.

See attached

again the stress on the point that they're are not compltte or valid till they break out and confirm.

another thing to keep in mind alot of people out there are buying the euro to book their profits in a higher yielding pair.

Hey Jade I see your from Australia. I am in Melbourne.

cheers
Attached Image
  • #16
  • Dec 13, 2008 8:22pm Dec 13, 2008 8:22pm
If in doubt, stay out.

I don't think we will have a clear answer to this until both the Europe and US sessions overlap occurs, at which point, when market is fully liquid, you get the clearest possible reading of genuine undercurrent and trend direction.
  • #17
  • Dec 13, 2008 8:55pm Dec 13, 2008 8:55pm
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my quess!!
lets see how wrong I am lol

cheers

teb
  • #18
  • Dec 14, 2008 2:29am Dec 14, 2008 2:29am
lol, k, let's see how wrong you are

the break above is what everyone will be watching for no doubt, but think the Euro bulls may be disappointed on this occasion, given the TA (and maybe I'll have to eat my dollar bias in this set-up for humble pie!)

in any event, the first trading session of the new week is always a good time to stay out of the market (unless it is accompanied by some earth shattering news)

I don't usually trade this session, prefer to wait until Europe is awake.... even better to wait until the US session begins and all the main players with fat wallets are on deck for the main game.
  • #19
  • Dec 14, 2008 5:46am Dec 14, 2008 5:46am
We see steps like this week, for years... or may be we might just have a clear repetition of the past... like it happened years ago... up and down.
  • #20
  • Dec 14, 2008 6:33am Dec 14, 2008 6:33am
As many has said before ... we really don't know what will happen in the near furture. Every one has an idea ... there are only two outcomes that will definitly be for sure. Market up or market down (As if it were so easy ). Where it place entry/exit, I don't know. Fundamentally we all know exactly how the market will move ... techinically, we have no idea.

This past week, not a lot of trade were executed in my account. Confused and not understanding. But for me ... the best bet was to stay out of a market I didn't understand. Which is ironic ... Im a "momentum" trader and any market is idea for profits.

The best advice I can give ... wait it out. Don't rush anything. Wait for your settup to occur and even then ... be skeptical about placing the trade.
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