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Where can I learn more about Price Action like those in James16 charts? 9 replies

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james16 Chart Thread

  • #16,781
  • Dec 12, 2008 10:09am Dec 12, 2008 10:09am
Quoting rustyjeff
I was looking at it from slightly diff angle as well. The dj fututures took a big drop & i was watching the uj. sold it at the initial break & sold the aj & nj on break of the small daily pins.
would like to hold on to this for another run lower.
Oh well.
2nd half stopped @ be. At least i got some.
  • #16,782
  • Dec 12, 2008 11:15am Dec 12, 2008 11:15am
Quoting rustyjeff
Oh well.
2nd half stopped @ be. At least i got some.

Just thought i'd give a physc. perspective on how i managed this uj trade.
Was it the best way?? maybe , maybe not but it was the plan that i had.

My thinking for the trade was to get in at the initial break of 91.35.
If it broke 9o.85 (the previous low) I would ride the initial push low then take 1/2 off. set stop to break even & let it run.
Well of course it went all the way to 88.36 looking good right.
first 1/2 was taken at 90 so i was feeling prety good about life also knowing that my 2nd 1/2 was at be & just above a 61.8 retacement of the 88 low.

The point is here that i watched this thing come back & take me out by 20 pips.
It wasn't fun considering i was up over 300 at the peak.
Could i have taken it early? yes of course but that was not the plan. When it broke 90 my thinking was that it will retace a bit but continue lower, eventually to the low of 80.

Its hard to stick to your plan but i made profit & my thinking was proven wrong for now. Time to sit back & reacess.

Could i have moved my stop a bit higher to stay in? Yes but i have allready learnt that misstake long ago. I'm happy these days to be out at no gain no loss.
If it has come back 300 pips then maybe I have missed something?
The plan was still a success.... but along the way there were many opportunities to alter it & make more & make less.

Its still a bit difficult to see 300 or 1000 dissapear before your eyes but the feeling of being consistantly successfull overrides it.
Obviously if it continues like this today I' long. The daily if it closes like this will be a beauty. Will it happen? I dont know we will see in time.

Hope this is helpfull for someone.
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  • #16,783
  • Dec 12, 2008 11:22am Dec 12, 2008 11:22am
Quoting jarroo
You have a very old and wise spirit ghous. And I foresee a very bright furure.
I agree, your rocking buddy!
  • #16,784
  • Dec 12, 2008 11:34am Dec 12, 2008 11:34am
Quoting rustyjeff
Oh well.
2nd half stopped @ be. At least i got some.
Well, glad you got some Jeff. This will be quite the daily UJ pin. Looks like Japan is going to be fighting quite the battle now to keep above 91. We will see after NY lunch what the market wants.
Here is a pair I am looking at. GBP/SGD. It just pinned with an hourly bar after breaking this nice ppz. I will not take a position here based only on hourly, and on Friday, but it is on my radar.
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  • #16,785
  • Dec 12, 2008 11:54am Dec 12, 2008 11:54am
Time to keep an eye on the yen pairs as you said Hip.
Jap must be interveening. could be an interesting arvo.
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  • #16,786
  • Edited 12:26pm Dec 12, 2008 12:19pm | Edited 12:26pm
Played on a touch of the ppz.
& now a pin on the 30m @ 61.8.
c'mon dow. down where you belong....

stop to be
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  • #16,787
  • Dec 12, 2008 12:38pm Dec 12, 2008 12:38pm
Quoting saskgui
Just got home. I never seen 1 hr bars like this on some of these yen pairs, and i am not a news guy but with a bomb like this i am tempted to just put in a limit sell on Eur_Usd at 1.34 with a 100 pip stop and go to bed. Problem is my plan is only with PA and i see nothing to sell off yet....

Good thing i don't trade news.... i would have thought bad news on the auto bailout would have sent the dow down hard on Friday....

Oh well back to what i do know. Daily pins... hoping to see USD/JPY keepit's shape for the close today, although anything can happen on a Friday afternoon these days.
  • #16,788
  • Dec 12, 2008 12:44pm Dec 12, 2008 12:44pm
I extracted a breakeven out of my Au and Usd/cad trade while taking a minor beating on the Eur/chf and the Gu,

I admit that the usd/cad and the au trades should have been better than just breakevens as each of these hit their first targets for support and resistance according to my anticipation, usd/cad went on to hit the Confluence zone of 1.24 ppz and the 23.6 fib and Au bounced nicely off the previous highs of the ranging bars, some profit taking had to be done here but i overslept (yes Rusty you are'nt the only one ) glad it didn't cost me much
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I believe . . .
  • #16,789
  • Dec 12, 2008 12:47pm Dec 12, 2008 12:47pm
Quoting saskgui
Good thing i don't trade news.... i would have thought bad news on the auto bailout would have sent the dow down hard on Friday....

Oh well back to what i do know. Daily pins... hoping to see USD/JPY keepit's shape for the close today, although anything can happen on a Friday afternoon these days.
That sure is one nice pin, since friday close is'nt far we may have a great trade all cooked and ready for Sunday/Monday open...

Regards,
Ghous.
I believe . . .
  • #16,790
  • Dec 12, 2008 12:55pm Dec 12, 2008 12:55pm
Yes Gous,
Sleep can be the enemy..
But weekend is here & its time for wine..
Hope every had a good week.
  • #16,791
  • Dec 12, 2008 1:21pm Dec 12, 2008 1:21pm
Quoting rustyjeff
Played on a touch of the ppz.
& now a pin on the 30m @ 61.8.
c'mon dow. down where you belong....

stop to be
what made you sell near the top of the nose of the pin? was it a fine tuned entry of a lower tf??
I believe . . .
  • #16,792
  • Dec 12, 2008 1:44pm Dec 12, 2008 1:44pm
Quoting ghous
what made you sell near the top of the nose of the pin? was it a fine tuned entry of a lower tf??
Yes sort of.
First, if you look at the 4hr you will see the obvious ppz.
Price had broken through & now was coming back to test it
So i went down in tf's to look more closely at price action
On the 5m, after a strong run up there was a couple of pins. but this just gave me more confidence as the ppz was what i was looking at more.
We often get at least a bounce on the first retest of an obvious ppz.
It may go through, but usually after some kind of a reaction.
So this was more s/r first backed up by pa later.
Its more risky but can be practised.
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  • #16,793
  • Dec 12, 2008 11:38pm Dec 12, 2008 11:38pm
Quoting rustyjeff
Yes sort of.
First, if you look at the 4hr you will see the obvious ppz.
Price had broken through & now was coming back to test it
So i went down in tf's to look more closely at price action
On the 5m, after a strong run up there was a couple of pins. but this just gave me more confidence as the ppz was what i was looking at more.
We often get at least a bounce on the first retest of an obvious ppz.
It may go through, but usually after some kind of a reaction.
So this was more s/r first backed up by pa later.
Its more risky but can be practised....
Ok i get it now. Nicely done...

Regards,
Ghous.
I believe . . .
  • #16,794
  • Dec 13, 2008 2:26am Dec 13, 2008 2:26am
I really don't know I much euro data before 2001 worth but I shorted Eur/Gbp because It reached 1995 historical max, lets see. I shorted during the touch but now a pin is formed on the 4 h
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  • #16,795
  • Dec 13, 2008 2:55am Dec 13, 2008 2:55am
Quoting canados
I really don't know I much euro data before 2001 worth but I shorted Eur/Gbp because It reached 1995 historical max, lets see. I shorted during the touch but now a pin is formed on the 4 h
The pin bounced off 0.9, and was in quite a nice shape, however i would have liked the bar just next to the pin bar to have generated some more bearish movment then it did to enhance the shape of the daily bar. In other words i would have liked the daily to close as a pin, which could then have been perhaps traded on Monday open.

the reason why i am against this 4H pb is that on my feed it's the second last bar before Friday close, definitely not the sweetest of trading times, infact the reason we did'nt see the break of the Pin bar may have been the odd market hours.

Morever i would not like to hang on to a trade over the weekend with such thin volume and crazy moves around. Don't forget it's December and christmas.

anyways best of luck with the trade

Regards,
Ghous.
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I believe . . .
  • #16,796
  • Dec 13, 2008 3:05am Dec 13, 2008 3:05am
Quoting canados
I really don't know I much euro data before 2001 worth but I shorted Eur/Gbp because It reached 1995 historical max, lets see. I shorted during the touch but now a pin is formed on the 4 h
Oh and BTW in the qouted post i am extremely unsatisfied with the words in bold. If only you waould have waited for the bar to close, you could have been more confident over the trade AND even more important would have been that you would have "STAYED OUT OF THE TRADE" taking the pin conservatively and waiting for the break.

Rac, RustyJeff, Mr.T, and HP they are all professioanals in their fields and methodlogies and trading techniques. Were you trying to imitate them, the R-DB stuff?? There is nothing wrong with trying the pro stuff but you need some serious guidance first I don't think the technique involves mere touching of a ppz or res/supp region enough for an entry, i am not sure if any of these guys took the trade you took.

Not throwing away your confidence mate, It's good that the trade is already positive for you. You just need to understand that short term success and profit has nothing to do with your overall success in the long run. Think abt this

It would be good if any of the above mentioned guys can shed some light here.

Best of luck

Regards,
Ghous.
I believe . . .
  • #16,797
  • Dec 13, 2008 3:14am Dec 13, 2008 3:14am
Quoting ghous
Oh and BTW in the qouted post i am extremely unsatisfied with the words in bold. If only you waould have waited for the bar to close, you could have been more confident over the trade AND even more important would have been that you would have "STAYED OUT OF THE TRADE" taking the pin conservatively and waiting for the break.

Rac, RustyJeff, Mr.T, and HP they are all professioanals in their fields and methodlogies and trading techniques. Were you trying to imitate them, the R-DB stuff?? There is nothing wrong with trying the pro stuff but...
thanks for you postes
I open a position when price approaches a level ONLY when it's strong, so, confluence or important historical level. I think that trade was a good opportunity, my stop is very very tight and the potential profits are interesting. I'm risking just 18 pips!!
regarding the pin it depends on the data feed and on fxpro it's a pin,and,like Jim says, trade when you see them...but no confirmation yet
  • #16,798
  • Dec 13, 2008 3:23am Dec 13, 2008 3:23am
Quoting canados
I'm risking just 18 pips
Price can gap up above 18 pips if you hold over the weekend.
  • #16,799
  • Dec 13, 2008 3:27am Dec 13, 2008 3:27am
Quoting fxprocessor
Price can gap up above 18 pips if you hold over the weekend.
it can happen..sure
I'm in at 0.8980
  • #16,800
  • Dec 13, 2008 4:18am Dec 13, 2008 4:18am
Quoting canados
thanks for you postes
I open a position when price approaches a level ONLY when it's strong, so, confluence or important historical level. I think that trade was a good opportunity, my stop is very very tight and the potential profits are interesting. I'm risking just 18 pips!!
regarding the pin it depends on the data feed and on fxpro it's a pin,and,like Jim says, trade when you see them...but no confirmation yet
So when price does hits an important level what makes you decide whether to go short or long? James16 strategy in it's most simplest of form is watching for price action on important confluence and res/supp zones for a possible entry. You haven't followed his strategy like you should or admit that you have your own strategy, what you mentioned above is not what James16 has been teaching through these 1000 pages of posts.

Abt your trade specifically if you're risking 18 pips on the trade (i assume you have your SL 18 pips away) you are'nt following good MM atall. what you're trying to do here by keeping your Sl so tight is that you're trying to improve your risk/reward. If this is how you want to handle your risk/reward ratio then you'll mostly end up on the negtive side of your trades despite having a great risk/reward each time.

The risk/reward is properly calcuted not on how many pips your account allows you to loose (this could be the only reason which comes to my mind for an 18 pip stop on the 4H tf during such crazy times in the market) but your take profits and stops based on S&R and your trade plan.

Finally I would once again like to remind you that you've been misunderstanding Jim's teachings here completely. He has done all he could to help us understand that the shape and size of the bar is'nt the only most important thing look for in a trade. Infact I am not alone when i think that location is perhaps far far more important than the shape and overall look of the bar.

The best advice for you is to go backa nd read the whole thread again more carefully this time, you're confusing and puzzling the whole thing up.

Regards,
Ghous.
I believe . . .
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