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Exchanging trading ideas

  • #1
  • First Post: Dec 12, 2008 5:36am Dec 12, 2008 5:36am
I'm opening this thread as a substitute for live chat like msn etc to exchange trading ideas and to filter of some posts at Igrok's thread, I hope he don't mind.

This is meant for a 2-way or group-conversation (related) thread regarding potential trades based on TA/FA and NOT "look, the-RSI-is-oversold-so-I'm-thinking-about-going-short" posts.

This thread is not supposed to contain any explanation of the methods used since it's all available in other threads, just a brief of the given scenario your looking at.

Topics;

  1. Classic TA. A basic understanding could be found here
  2. Complex TA (Igrok templates) explanation

Measure twice, cut once
  • #2
  • Dec 12, 2008 5:42am Dec 12, 2008 5:42am
I'm not a fan of picking tops but sometimes the evidence of a turnover stacks up.

The flag target is soon to be hit, and sometimes when the flag-target is achieved, a correction follows. We have 3 touches on the red TL and on the forth touch could be a break, which is the setup I'm considering according to Igrok's template #20.6.

Divergence have been made by both mom and MACD but I have absolutely no idea when we can expect a breakout.
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Measure twice, cut once
  • #3
  • Dec 12, 2008 5:49am Dec 12, 2008 5:49am
Quoting aediaz1
I'm not a fan of picking tops but sometimes the evidence of a turnover stacks up.

The flag target is soon to be hit, and sometimes when the flag-target is achieved, a correction follows. We have 3 touches on the red TL and on the forth touch could be a break, which is the setup I'm considering according to Igrok's template #20.6.

Divergence have been made by both mom and MACD but I have absolutely no idea when we can expect a breakout.
Maybe a potential ascending channel on the 1hr? The upper border looks symetrical as well.
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  • #4
  • Dec 12, 2008 5:54am Dec 12, 2008 5:54am
Quoting belekas
Maybe a potential ascending channel on the 1hr? The upper border looks symetrical as well.
It does. Might get a chance to short this pair in NY session, have a look. Not sure if this qualify as #19.7
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Measure twice, cut once
  • #5
  • Dec 12, 2008 6:00am Dec 12, 2008 6:00am
On usd/chf, I changed dancing-shoes from long setup to short. I had the following scenario ready for a trade but, quite incredible, I managed to be too late for this trade. Would have been a #19.6, although it says hourly and daily charts, the SL of 15 pips tempted me.

It still bear the potential to become a #19.7 trade, IMO.
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Measure twice, cut once
  • #6
  • Dec 12, 2008 6:17am Dec 12, 2008 6:17am
Quoting aediaz1
On usd/chf, I changed dancing-shoes from long setup to short. I had the following scenario ready for a trade but, quite incredible, I managed to be too late for this trade. Would have been a #19.6, although it says hourly and daily charts, the SL of 15 pips tempted me.

It still bear the potential to become a #19.7 trade, IMO.
Yes. As i dont trade more then 3 pairs, so i just now looked at the swissey. Pottential descending 15m channel. Nice short from the upper TL that was. Lets wait and see how this one unfolds during NY session.
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  • #7
  • Dec 12, 2008 6:20am Dec 12, 2008 6:20am
Quoting belekas
Yes. As i dont trade more then 3 pairs, so i just now looked at the swissey. Pottential descending 15m channel. Nice short from the upper TL that was. Lets wait and see how this one unfolds during NY session.
Why the long TL ? It have been crossed

Check out usdcad 15m, potential 19.6a.
Measure twice, cut once
  • #8
  • Dec 12, 2008 6:24am Dec 12, 2008 6:24am
Quoting aediaz1
Why the long TL ? It have been crossed

Check out usdcad 15m, potential 19.6a.
On 4hr not j/k What you thinkng about Loonie buddy?
  • #9
  • Dec 12, 2008 6:26am Dec 12, 2008 6:26am
Quoting belekas
On 4hr not j/k What you thinkng about Loonie buddy?
Have a look on 15m chart you slacker

Also viewable on cad/chf
Measure twice, cut once
  • #10
  • Dec 12, 2008 6:33am Dec 12, 2008 6:33am
Quoting aediaz1
Have a look on 15m chart you slacker

Also viewable on cad/chf
Yes i see a potential ascending channel right here on the loonie. We already had a classic bearish divergence that is playing out right now. We could have shorted @ the top. Now, we have a potential bullish HD divergence cooking, that will play out i think. I will try buying of the lower TL if price makes it there But on second check i see it might be a bearish flag, so we should have been short from the top. And only play a breakout of the lower border, just to be safe. Whats your point of view on this one?
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  • #11
  • Dec 12, 2008 6:42am Dec 12, 2008 6:42am
Quoting belekas
Yes i see a potential ascending channel right here on the loonie. We already had a classic bearish divergence that is playing out right now. We could have shorted @ the top. Now, we have a potential bullish HD divergence cooking, that will play out i think. I will try buying of the lower TL if price makes it there But on second check i see it might be a bearish flag, so we should have been short from the top. And only play a breakout of the lower border, just to be safe. Whats your point of view on this one?
I'll answer this in a sec, have a look on gbp/jpy seems like a short opportunity right now;
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Measure twice, cut once
  • #12
  • Dec 12, 2008 6:47am Dec 12, 2008 6:47am
Back to your question, I think you have a very valid point. We still have room to the downside based on daily range. Might be possible to short it either on red TL on my chart or the channel top.
Measure twice, cut once
  • #13
  • Dec 12, 2008 6:51am Dec 12, 2008 6:51am
Quoting aediaz1
I'll answer this in a sec, have a look on gbp/jpy seems like a short opportunity right now;
I missed it from the 61.2 retrace of the 136 so im not going into this right now, having in mind my data feed differs alot from yours. The lower TL has only 2 touches on my platform
  • #14
  • Dec 12, 2008 7:00am Dec 12, 2008 7:00am
Lines a bit harsh but i believe this might be a bearish flag formation. If it makes to the upper border ( i will repaint it, this is a ruff drawing) then we can short it. My lower border is not described nicely so playing a downside breakout is too dangerous for me. Can you post your 5m chart to compate. Thanks...
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  • #15
  • Dec 12, 2008 7:01am Dec 12, 2008 7:01am
Quoting belekas
Lines a bit harsh but i believe this might be a bearish flag formation. If it makes to the upper border ( i will repaint it, this is a ruff drawing) then we can short it. My lower border is not described nicely so playing a downside breakout is too dangerous for me. Can you post your 5m chart to compate. Thanks...
I already have, check my gbp/jpy post lol. Just in case you're slacking again press here
Measure twice, cut once
  • #16
  • Dec 12, 2008 7:04am Dec 12, 2008 7:04am
Quoting aediaz1
I already have, check my gbp/jpy post lol. Just in case you're slacking again press here
Too many charts and im lost lol. Yes perfect lower TL touches...What broker ure using?
  • #17
  • Dec 12, 2008 7:05am Dec 12, 2008 7:05am
Quoting belekas
I missed it from the 61.2 retrace of the 136 so im not going into this right now, having in mind my data feed differs alot from yours. The lower TL has only 2 touches on my platform
You and your fibs ! When will you throw that garbage where it belongs

I use crappy alpari. Can't wait till I'm getting tradestation one day, I'm tired of buckshops.
Measure twice, cut once
  • #18
  • Dec 12, 2008 7:10am Dec 12, 2008 7:10am
Quoting aediaz1
You and your fibs ! When will you throw that garbage where it belongs

I use crappy alpari. Can't wait till I'm getting tradestation one day, I'm tired of buckshops.
I use it only for experimental scalping in combination with hidden divergences. The more confluence for my already burned confidence the sooner it will maintain Dont worry mate, its all good
  • #19
  • Dec 12, 2008 7:10am Dec 12, 2008 7:10am
Gentlemen, nice idea for a thread, just plain and simple market geometry. I may not be a student of Igrok exactly but I am fairly sure these geometric studies come to the same conclusions as they are based on the same theories when you distill them.

Here is the situation I see on USDCAD. Blue dashed bearish Babson/best-fit channel, respected several times by price in recent days, appearing to describe a further pivot point here. I'm in from higher up with a portion banked to make the trade net free. Targeting the Aqua line intially (which is part of a major fork), with a view to entering more trades on break of minor lows as we continue to travel within the confines of this channel. I must stress this is not necesaarily a probable scenario but a richly rewarding one nevertheless, and as the old adage goes it's not about how much you are right, it's how much you win when you are right.

News coming out in 20 which could throw all sorts of spanners in the works, I am waiting for the market to show its hand in the next hour or so on other pairs.
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  • #20
  • Dec 12, 2008 7:16am Dec 12, 2008 7:16am
Quoting birdt
..it's not about how much you are right, it's how much you win when you are right.
True, Soros share some good sentences

Quoting birdt
News coming out in 20 which could throw all sorts of spanners in the works, I am waiting for the market to show its hand in the next hour or so on other pairs.

Yeah, lets see how badly the US news can mess up my lower TF chart.

Btw, whats your experience with forks ?
Measure twice, cut once
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