Been a good day all round - great trades
Kind Regards
Steve
Kind Regards
Steve
Tras WaveTrade 17 replies
DislikedWow your brave to trade when the NFP is due out. Actually your brave to trade on a friday. I find it to be a day where alot of confsion is taking palce.
But i guess if your system says buy, you must buy.
keep up the good work.Ignored
DislikedMarch 8, 2007
Spread Signal
Trade #51
GBP/USD
Long
Entry: 9298
Target: 9447
Stop: 9166
We have a signal...although I am nervous about this one with pending news, we will take it as per rules.
Potential: 149 pips
Risk: 126 pips
Reward/Risk: 1.18 to 1
Success Rate: 74%
NorthproIgnored
DislikedMarch 9, 2007
Spread Signal
Trade #52
AUD/USD
Long
Entry: 7792
Target: 7840
Stop: 7744
Another signal..this one is late due to the fact I needed a clearer picture as far as the EW side of things were concerned. Still, the news is a worry, especially with only 48 pips on the stop.
Potential: 48 pips
Risk: 48 pips
Reward/Risk: 1 to 1
Success Rate: 100%
NorthproIgnored
DislikedMarch 12, 2007
Re:
Trade #52
AUD/USD
Long
Like the GBP This pair is moving along nicely towards our TP. It's a small trade so we will secure a little profit in the evnt it retraces. I am moving my stop +20pips in the money.
Entry: 7792
Target: 7840
Revised Stop: 7812 (+20pips in the money)
Potential: 48pips (guaranteed +20)
Reward/Risk: No risk
Success Rate: 100%
NorthproIgnored
DislikedMarch 12, 2007
Re:
Trade #51
GBP/USD
Long
This pair is moving along nicely towards our TP. We hit over 50% of the way so I am moving my stop +40pips in the money to secure profit.
Entry: 9298
Target: 9447
Revised Stop: 9338 (+40pips in the money)
Potential: 149pips (guaranteed +40)
Reward/Risk: No risk
Success Rate: 74%
NorthproIgnored
DislikedMarch 12, 2007
Re:
Trade #51
GBP/USD
Long
After the seemingly good GBP news, this pair is hovering. I am trailing this while I am on the computer. I am away on business today and will be off while I fly home throughout the day, so I want to secure a good chunk here. I am moving my stop +75pips in the money to secure profit.
Entry: 9298
Target: 9447
Revised Stop: 9373 (+75pips in the money)
Potential: 149pips (guaranteed +75)
Reward/Risk: No risk
Success Rate: 74%
NorthproIgnored
DislikedMarch 9, 2007
Re: Trade #49
USD/CAD
Short
With the rebound in gold and favourable news for the CAD there is further fall towards our TP. The physcological barrier of 1700 is yet to be broken, but just hovering above it. I feel confident in this trade but will lock in further profit by moving the stop again to 1754 (+60pips in the money).
Entry: 1814
Target: 1677
Revised Stop: 1754 (+60pips in the money)
Potential: 137pips
Reward/Risk: No risk
Success Rate: 69%
NorthproIgnored
DislikedMarch 12, 2007
Re: Trade #49
USD/CAD
Short
We are getting temporary exhaustion signals from this pair, so I am tightening the stop to secure more profit.
Entry: 1814
Target: 1677
Revised Stop: 1714 (+100pips in the money)
Potential: 137pips (guaranteed 100 pips)
Reward/Risk: No risk
Success Rate: 69%
NorthproIgnored
DislikedMarch 13, 2007
Wave Signal
Trade #53
GBP/USD
Long
Entry: 9315
Target: 9518
Stop: 9249
We have a signal from yesterday's close. We are using a tighter than normal stop as we are trying to improve our risk reward. Initial target is 9518(r2), if momentum dictates we may move TP to low 9600's(r3).
Potential: 203 pips
Risk: 66 pips
Reward/Risk: 3.07 to 1
Success Rate: 63%
NorthproIgnored
Disliked"We have a wave signal...after trying to improve yesterdays G/U trade by decreasing the risk thus improving our RR we were stopped out with authority, just to see it go towards anticipated levels by late morning...how aggravating. We will still try and improve RR values but not so drastic as we did on that trade."
I know what you mean. I said the exact same thing yesterday. It's tempting to tighten up the Stop, but that can erode the winrate quite easily. There are several ways to increase the RRR that I can think of without eroding the winrate. Perhaps you can think of others:
Be more selective of the trades that are system compliant, and reject some with lower RRR.
Adjust the entry price to a value that may be higher or lower than your system would normally generate, but which enhances the RRR to within the desired range, and still complies with your system. This will involve sacrificing some trading opportunities, but may enhance the overall system performance.
Refine the system so that the stop values are more precise and certain, which could allow the stop to be placed closer to the entry in some cases, thus reducing the size of the Risk relative to the Reward without increasing the probability of losing the trade.
Refine the system to keep you in a winning trade longer, thus increasing the reward, which will increase the RRR.
Ignored
Dislikeditme,
Thanks for your words, I should tell you since joining the FF I have always taken great inspiration from your analysis, even though they are "experimental". The one aspect of great inspiration was the fact that you always attempt and often achieve a 5 to 1 RRR, impressive. Even though I am almost too regimented in my method and my system rules, I have been slowly trying to develop a closer edge to the market and in response have been on occasion, able to reduce the Risk side of the equation, although it not normally is > 2.0. So to attempt a 3 RRR this soon might have been too ambitious and the attempt just to get a 3 to 1 versus a "do-able" execution may have over rode the reality of a well executed and realistic RRR value.
In the end, my system as it exists today is always a work in progress as am I within this world of FX trading. As I improve in this business, so will my system, and ultimately my RRR's will improve along with my Success Ratio.
Thanks again for your thoughts.
Cheers,
NorthproIgnored
DislikedAnd thanks for your kind words, Northpro.
To improve the performance (profitability) of an already profitable system, one must do one of the following things:
1) increase the frequency of trades
2) increase the reward / risk ratio
3) improve the percentage of winning trades
To do the above, one can either:
1) "tweak" the system
2) add or subtract elements to or from the system, elements essentially belonging to the same model
3) introduce an entirely different model into the system, or replace one model with another model
These previous statements are, in my opinion, universal, general statements. Now I will say something about my personal process.
In order to try to achieve something uncommon, it may be necessary to employ uncommon means. My goal has been to achieve a 50% or better win rate with trades of a 5:1 or better RRR. This is an unnecesarily high level of performance, but I thought that if I aimed for it, I might at least hit a lesser target. At best, I would exceed it.
To do this I tried employing an original model. When that seemed unlikely to succeed, then I added another unusual model, and looked for agreement or reinforcement. Then I added a third, and then a fourth model. Eventually I got overwhelmed with the volume of information, the time demands, and the complexity, and the quality of my application of everything deteriorated. Now I'm thinking that by one simple adjustment to what I have been doing, namely finding the optimum currency pair to apply my system to, and then specialising on that pair, I can produce a dramatic increase in performance.
Meanwhile, it has also occurred to me that there are several off the shelf trading systems that others have already developed that might perform quite well, and perhaps extremely well, and I have been researching them. So far, I haven't found a place where the performance characteristics of several profitable trading systems available on this forum site have been brought together and discussed. But it seems that there are some good systems that are reasonably objective and non-discretionary that merit research. All this is extremely time consuming and taxing on one's patience.
However, I think I am getting close to finding my personal "holy grail". I hope you are too.Ignored
DislikedMarch 14, 2007
Wave Signal
Trade #54
USD/CAD
Short
Entry: 1759
Target: 1562
Stop: 1885
We have a wave signal...after trying to improve yesterdays G/U trade by decreasing the risk thus improving our RR we were stopped out with authority, just to see it go towards anticipated levels by late morning...how aggravating. We will still try and improve RR values but not so drastic as we did on that trade.
Potential: 197 pips
Risk: 126 pips
Reward/Risk: 1.56 to 1
Success Rate: 63%
NorthproIgnored