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Tras WaveTrade 17 replies

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WaveTrade

  • #361
  • Feb 28, 2007 10:10am Feb 28, 2007 10:10am
Quoting Northpro
Feb. 28, 2007
Re:
Trade #47

EUR/USD
Short

Overnight we reached the 50% to TP (3183). I hate doing this as of late because lately the E/U trades have been getting +20 stopped more than usual, however for now I will stick to the plan

Entry: 3236
Target: 3131
Revised Stop: 3216 (+20pips in the money)

Potential: 105pips
Reward/Risk: No risk
Success Rate: 82%

Northpro
Feb. 28, 2007

Not 5 min after my previous post we were stopped out at the revised stop..as suspected.

Re Trade #47
EUR/USD

Stop: 3216
Gain: +20 pips

Total Realized Febuary: +79pips
Total Realized since start: +1271 pips
Success Rate to Date: 68.1%

Northpro
  • #362
  • Feb 28, 2007 5:06pm Feb 28, 2007 5:06pm
February 28, 2007

Feb. recap:

We had 6 Trades of which 7 have been completed, 5 winners and 2 loser.

Feb. Gain/Loss: +79
Total gain since start: +1271

Realized Pips
Trade 39: 87
Trade 42: 100
Trade 43: -62
Trade 44: 20
Trade 45: -106
Trade 46: 20
Trade 47: 20
Trade 48: Incomplete
Total: +79

Well not exactly a stellar month but a positive balance is better than a negative, and I'll take that any day. We had 3 E/U trades that all traded at just +20 on the 50% TP stop move, two of the three eventually would have hit their target, however as frustrating as it is, this is a filter that works for the better more times than not. Hopefully next month will also be a positive balance but with more pips generated.

Northpro
  • #363
  • Feb 28, 2007 5:09pm Feb 28, 2007 5:09pm
Hi Northpro,

I'd have been quite happy with plus 79 in February

As you say, positive is positive - well done

Kind Regards
Steve

Quoting Northpro
February 28, 2007

Feb. recap:

We had 6 Trades of which 7 have been completed, 5 winners and 2 loser.

Feb. Gain/Loss: +79
Total gain since start: +1271

Realized Pips
Trade 39: 87
Trade 42: 100
Trade 43: -62
Trade 44: 20
Trade 45: -106
Trade 46: 20
Trade 47: 20
Trade 48: Incomplete
Total: +79

Well not exactly a stellar month but a positive balance is better than a negative, and I'll take that any day. We had 3 E/U trades that all traded at just +20 on the 50% TP stop move, two of the three eventually would have hit their target, however as frustrating as it is, this is a filter that works for the better more times than not. Hopefully next month will also be a positive balance but with more pips generated.

Northpro
  • #364
  • Mar 1, 2007 5:50am Mar 1, 2007 5:50am
Northpro, are you going to short E/U again? as the pair had been going back and forth around this area.
  • #365
  • Mar 1, 2007 11:41am Mar 1, 2007 11:41am
March 1, 2007

Here is the Q2 performance summary from Dec1 til Feb 28. We only had 17 completed trades in this quarter which is on the low side. Once again our EUR dissappointed us in pips total even though our W/L was 100%, so hopefully we can improve on that. Overall our % gain was 31.3% vs. Q1's 56.4% and I have accumulated 105% on my account total for the first six months. I have excuded dollar amounts as these are personal and irrellevent. For reference to Q1 numbers, they are on post #328.

I will be out of town for the next few days. Hope everyone has a great weekend.

Northpro
Attached File(s)
File Type: xml Wavetrade Performance Summary2.xml   22 KB | 406 downloads
  • #366
  • Mar 5, 2007 4:39pm Mar 5, 2007 4:39pm
March 5, 2007

Spread Signal
Trade #49

USD/CAD
Short

Entry: 1814
Target: 1677
Stop: 1883

If the NFP is any where near what they forecast, this could take a day or two to roll over and head south. It has been up for six days consecutively which is only a note to self, not a signal to short, especially 137 pips.

Potential: 137pips
Risk: 69pips
Reward/Risk: 2 to 1
Success Rate: 69%

Northpro
  • #367
  • Mar 5, 2007 5:10pm Mar 5, 2007 5:10pm
March 5, 2007

Support Break Signal
Trade #50

AUD/USD
Short

Entry: 7683
Target: 7615
Stop: 7730

We are introducing a support break signal into wavetrade, often mentioned, never executed in a trade entry. We are using ATR from 4hr for our stop as this falls inside the the minimum requirement for a RRR of at least 1 to 1. TP is set just above the next support level at 7615. We will watch this one closely for the reverse and will manually close if indications trigger a reversal, if of course I am up and near the laptop that is!

Potential: 68 pips
Risk: 47 pips
Reward/Risk: 1.4 to 1
Success Rate: Never been done yet in Wavetrade

Northpro
  • #368
  • Mar 5, 2007 6:44pm Mar 5, 2007 6:44pm
Quoting Northpro
March 5, 2007

Support Break Signal
Trade #50

AUD/USD
Short

Entry: 7683
Target: 7615
Stop: 7730

We are introducing a support break signal into wavetrade, often mentioned, never executed in a trade entry. We are using ATR from 4hr for our stop as this falls inside the the minimum requirement for a RRR of at least 1 to 1. TP is set just above the next support level at 7615. We will watch this one closely for the reverse and will manually close if indications trigger a reversal, if of course I am up and near the laptop that is!

Potential: 68 pips
Risk: 47 pips
Reward/Risk: 1.4 to 1
Success Rate: Never been done yet in Wavetrade

Northpro
March 5, 2007

Well that totally sucked, if it reverses, like i suspect it will, then I'll be really annoyed..oh well.

Re Trade #50
AUD/USD

Stop: 7730
Loss: -47 pips

Total Realized March: -47pips
Total Realized since start: +1224 pips
Success Rate to Date: 66.7%

Northpro
  • #369
  • Mar 8, 2007 10:03am Mar 8, 2007 10:03am
Quoting Northpro
Feb 27, 2007

Spread Signal
Trade #48

USD/CHF
Long

Entry: 2178
Target: 2332
Stop: 2075

This one could be a bit early but we will chance it as the RR is satisfactory.

Potential: 154pips
Reward/Risk: 1.5 to 1
Success Rate: 69%

Northpro
March 8, 2007
Re:
Trade #48

USD/CHF
Long

Well after being stuck in a fairly tight rangeand finally breaking out to the long side, we will lock in profit by moving stop to 2225 (+47pips)

Entry: 2178
Target: 2332
Revised Stop: 2225 (+47pips in the money)

Potential: 154pips
Reward/Risk: No risk
Success Rate: 69%

Northpro
  • #370
  • Mar 8, 2007 6:25pm Mar 8, 2007 6:25pm
March 8, 2007

Spread Signal
Trade #51

GBP/USD
Long

Entry: 9298
Target: 9447
Stop: 9166

We have a signal...although I am nervous about this one with pending news, we will take it as per rules.

Potential: 149 pips
Risk: 126 pips
Reward/Risk: 1.18 to 1
Success Rate: 74%

Northpro
  • #371
  • Mar 8, 2007 8:19pm Mar 8, 2007 8:19pm
HEy northpro your signals are great. Any tips on how i can come to understand your method?

O, your GBPUSD long will do fine the news out for US should be bad.

happy trading
  • #372
  • Mar 8, 2007 8:55pm Mar 8, 2007 8:55pm
Quoting nikim
HEy northpro your signals are great. Any tips on how i can come to understand your method?

O, your GBPUSD long will do fine the news out for US should be bad.

happy trading
Hello Nikim,

Thanks for the support. So far we are not performing up to standard with the signals of late, however we are progressing slow and steady and that's the name of the game. Anyway, about my system...there is really no magic to it, however explaining it would be a trick in itself. With all the simple and successfull systems out there, I took the more complicated and clouded approach. To sum it up, I like to trade the overall market range from days to weeks and in doing so I use a combination of sma 10 and 16, ema 6, slow stochastics, momentum, rsi, macd, and a value of consistent up/down days...I have devised a formula that is unique to each of the 5 pairs I trade that combines all the trend and occillator values together (at the end of day) to give one final value. When the final number reaches a certain value +/- (again unique for each pair) I enter. The targets are a combination of pivot points, elliot wave, and support resistance levels and stops are as low as possible within reason, never exceeding RRR 1 to 1....whew! Got all that. At the end of the day, the system is crap without proper money managmenet, which is the real key to my system.

I don't declare it to be an excellent system, just one that works and specifically, works for me!

In the meantime, myself and a partner are working on another method that will be married into wavetrade. There are some great systems and techniques within the forum, much of where we get our ideas from, like many others, the key is to find what works for you..

Cheers,
NP

ps. hope your right about the cable! cheers!
  • #373
  • Mar 8, 2007 10:47pm Mar 8, 2007 10:47pm
Hello Northpro I have been following your thread and find it very interesting.I see for q1 you did 50% and q2 you did 30%. I have 2 questions. How much do you risk per trade and how do you deal with the correlations of the currency pairs? For example if you have 2 signals at the same time long eur/usd and short usd/chf do you take the 2 signals? and if so how much do you risk on each position?
  • #374
  • Edited 11:26pm Mar 8, 2007 10:58pm | Edited 11:26pm
March 9, 2007

Spread Signal
Trade #52

AUD/USD
Long

Entry: 7792
Target: 7840
Stop: 7744

Another signal..this one is late due to the fact I needed a clearer picture as far as the EW side of things were concerned. Still, the news is a worry, especially with only 48 pips on the stop.

Potential: 48 pips
Risk: 48 pips
Reward/Risk: 1 to 1
Success Rate: 100%

Northpro
  • #375
  • Edited 11:35pm Mar 8, 2007 11:11pm | Edited 11:35pm
Quoting rez
Hello Northpro I have been following your thread and find it very interesting.I see for q1 you did 50% and q2 you did 30%. I have 2 questions. How much do you risk per trade and how do you deal with the correlations of the currency pairs? For example if you have 2 signals at the same time long eur/usd and short usd/chf do you take the 2 signals? and if so how much do you risk on each position?

Hello rez,

As far as my risk..it varies. I use a different amount of risk for each pair based on my success rate and average pip gain/loss per pair (look up kelly formula), it's very close to that. But to answer your question simply, it varies from 4%-7% of my capital per trade entered...if I am in 3 trades and each one is at 5%, then that would be 15% total not 5% combined. It's really difficult to abtain the exact number based on success rate with accuracy until you have a lengthy record to draw from. The more trades, the more accurate your success rate will be.

As far as correllation goes..yeah I do look at it especially when considering trades...I do however, only take note and enter every signal my system gives, regardless of the correllation. Sometimes I get burned, but most times pairs have their own ranges and personality behaviors, not to say if G/U goes down, chances are aud/usd may follow, say to usd good news etc..the difference lies in how much each responds to the news and how it recovers..is your stop far enough away to ride out the correlation and news issues etc. Recently for example the usd/chf has been not correllated in the same manner as the g/u has, nor has the e/u and g/u been correlated like their usual manner, so yes I look at it, but don't go by it as a main factor in my trading system. Also you can check out my post 193 pdf as a basic guide to my money management method.

Hope this answers your question.

NP
  • #376
  • Mar 8, 2007 11:49pm Mar 8, 2007 11:49pm
Quoting Northpro
Hello rez,

As far as my risk..it varies. I use a different amount of risk for each pair based on my success rate and average pip gain/loss per pair (look up kelly formula), it's very close to that. But to answer your question simply, it varies from 4%-7% of my capital per trade entered...if I am in 3 trades and each one is at 5%, then that would be 15% total not 5% combined. It's really difficult to abtain the exact number based on success rate with accuracy until you have a lengthy record to draw from. The more trades, the more accurate your success rate will be.

As far as correllation goes..yeah I do look at it especially when considering trades...I do however, only take note and enter every signal my system gives, regardless of the correllation. Sometimes I get burned, but most times pairs have their own ranges and personality behaviors, not to say if G/U goes down, chances are aud/usd may follow, say to usd good news etc..the difference lies in how much each responds to the news and how it recovers..is your stop far enough away to ride out the correlation and news issues etc. Recently for example the usd/chf has been not correllated in the same manner as the g/u has, nor has the e/u and g/u been correlated like their usual manner, so yes I look at it, but don't go by it as a main factor in my trading system. Also you can check out my post 193 pdf as a basic guide to my money management method.

Hope this answers your question.

NP
Thank You for your answer. What has been your maximum drawdown so far? and based on your system and money management method it looks like you are shooting for over 200% per year
  • #377
  • Edited 7:01am Mar 9, 2007 12:04am | Edited 7:01am
Quoting rez
Thank You for your answer. What has been your maximum drawdown so far? and based on your system and money management method it looks like you are shooting for over 200% per year
Max drawdown this past year in one period was 21% that was incurred with 5 consective losses of varying amounts..on any one trade it is max 7%, often 3-4% based on RR levels. If I use a 1 to 1 RR and mechanically trade I know that I can sustain 9-11 consecutive losses before hitting the 50% level and up to 27 consecutive losses before I am out of business. As far as the 200% is concerned..I have no target in fixed percentage. I take what my system gives me and don't beat myself up if we have a bad week, month, or even quarter. I am striving for steady gains over the year(s)...if I do better than 10%, I've done better than most financial planners....mine in particular!

NP
  • #378
  • Mar 9, 2007 7:52am Mar 9, 2007 7:52am
Quoting Northpro
March 5, 2007

Spread Signal
Trade #49

USD/CAD
Short

Entry: 1814
Target: 1677
Stop: 1883

If the NFP is any where near what they forecast, this could take a day or two to roll over and head south. It has been up for six days consecutively which is only a note to self, not a signal to short, especially 137 pips.

Potential: 137pips
Risk: 69pips
Reward/Risk: 2 to 1
Success Rate: 69%

Northpro
March 9, 2007

Re: Trade #49

USD/CAD
Short

We had some good news favour the Loonie. I will take this opportunty to lock in some profit and move the stop to +30 pips in the money.

Entry: 1814
Target: 1677
Revised Stop: 1784 (+30pips in the money)

Potential: 137pips
Reward/Risk: No risk
Success Rate: 69%

Northpro
  • #379
  • Mar 9, 2007 7:59am Mar 9, 2007 7:59am
Quoting Northpro
March 8, 2007
Re:
Trade #48

USD/CHF
Long

Well after being stuck in a fairly tight rangeand finally breaking out to the long side, we will lock in profit by moving stop to 2225 (+47pips)

Entry: 2178
Target: 2332
Revised Stop: 2225 (+47pips in the money)

Potential: 154pips
Reward/Risk: No risk
Success Rate: 69%

Northpro
March 9, 2007

This pair finally broke out to the good side for us.

Re Trade #48
USD/CHF

Target: 2332 hit
Gain: +154 pips

Total Realized March: +107pips
Total Realized since start: +1378 pips
Overall Success Rate to Date: 67.3%


Northpro
  • #380
  • Mar 9, 2007 11:58am Mar 9, 2007 11:58am
Quoting Northpro
March 9, 2007

Re: Trade #49

USD/CAD
Short

We had some good news favour the Loonie. I will take this opportunty to lock in some profit and move the stop to +30 pips in the money.

Entry: 1814
Target: 1677
Revised Stop: 1784 (+30pips in the money)

Potential: 137pips
Reward/Risk: No risk
Success Rate: 69%

Northpro
March 9, 2007

Re: Trade #49

USD/CAD
Short

With the rebound in gold and favourable news for the CAD there is further fall towards our TP. The physcological barrier of 1700 is yet to be broken, but just hovering above it. I feel confident in this trade but will lock in further profit by moving the stop again to 1754 (+60pips in the money).

Entry: 1814
Target: 1677
Revised Stop: 1754 (+60pips in the money)

Potential: 137pips
Reward/Risk: No risk
Success Rate: 69%

Northpro
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