No Brainer Trades | Page 341 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Related Instruments

GBP/USD, USD/CHF, USD/JPY

Similar Threads

No brainer fundamental trades 55 replies

This time... I'm Keeping MY MONEY (BRV - No Brainer Trades) 3 replies

The Koala System (No brainer) 127 replies

EUR/GBP SHORT for No Brainer 67 replies

Selling USD and YEN is a no brainer. 12 replies

Attachments: No Brainer Trades
Exit Attachments

No Brainer Trades

  • #6,801
  • Edited 7:22am Dec 11, 2008 7:11am | Edited 7:22am
If this drops below 13215 then it's already had it. Although the news will stir everything up.

News is close now though, I was hoping we could have a bit of a retrace in the 30mins previous.
  • #6,802
  • Dec 11, 2008 7:19am Dec 11, 2008 7:19am
Nice work trendsetter!
Thanks for sharing this.
  • #6,803
  • Dec 11, 2008 7:26am Dec 11, 2008 7:26am
Quoting tdeu
Hello Trendsetter,

Thanks for this very detailed description. I have a couple of questions:

Do you have 20 pips S/L for all pairs? EURJPY has a much greater daily pip range than e.g. AUDUSD. [color=red]Yes, for all. In the case of EJ and such wider range currencies I either enter late or not at all. But it always depends on market condition, ALWAYS. 30 pips is the most I will cosider on this and it is in a situation where I am trading a spiked candle and need to cover the shadow/wick. But, that's just me. After a while you will start judging...
Do you have 20 pips S/L for all pairs? EURJPY has a much greater daily pip range than e.g. AUDUSD. Yes, for all. In the case of EJ and such wider range currencies I either enter late or not at all. But it always depends on market condition, ALWAYS. 30 pips is the most I will cosider on this and it is in a situation where I am trading a spiked candle and need to cover the shadow/wick. But, that's just me. After a while you will start judging your trades and know what you are willing to risk.

Is it better to trade a certain time of the day? Omit Tokyo? The best time to trade in my opinion is 2am - 4am and 7am - 9am. The method though has no certain or best time of day. The entire purpose of the system is to illiminate the need to trade at a certain time of day, it works whenever. (granted if the market isn't standing still )

What is your average Reward/Risk ratio? Again, depends. Some trades I make multiple entries, some just a single entry. The stop loss is always balanced though, never less than 1:1. Often my first limit is the risk (so let's say I have 2 entries, the first limit being 20 pips and the second being 30 pips, my stop loss would add up to 20, so 10 pips on each, or 15 on each if I use the higher limit of 30. The actual reward though is 50 pips in total for that trade. I like to use the lower limit for the stop loss total because once that limit is hit I have completed my 1:1 risk reward and I can then break in my stop on the second entry). Once the first limit is hit my stops move in to +1 pip. I refuse for the market to give me above 10 pips then take it back, even if it comes back to stop me out and then goes in my favor. Once I see sufficient green I don't believe in seeing any red. That just applies to this method though.

And what is your reliability (how often do you win)? Win rate is dependent on the trader. Unlike most systems that have hard and fastened signals to trade, this will depend on your skill and time you spend practicing and timing entries, and most importantly reacting to market conditions as they fluctuate. As for my win rate I never actually took a percentage, but it's high. I just know it's quite hard to lose (have a losing day) unless you want to. When you practice though, you will just have to get used to taking losses, once you get over that hurddle you will be laughing at how much profit you make. But once greed steps in your win rate will drastically drop (I know this first hand). Just keep trading and eventually it becomes natural that you trade what you see without thinking.

Do you enter with market order? With the speed of price movement during such spikes the slippage should be pretty big!? I enter manually. I know what direction I want to go in so I have my order palette/window up and ready. When I feel it's time to get in I press the button then quickly input my stop and limit. I use the Wintrader platform for this method with the broker iTrade, there is no slippage and orders are lighting fast. I have yet to find any platform that can execute orders like WinTrader. Also the ability to just type in the number I want for stops or limit in pips or dollar value makes it very fast. I have used this method with MetaTrader as well, but your broker best be able to execute orders really fast, or you will suffer on those blitz trades.

Do you close the trade after a certain time if there is no "action" and price lingers around the level? I will close out if I see nothing happening or assess the market and leave it there as a short term position, adjusting stops and limits as I see fit.

Do you trade pullbacks from those levels? I am not sure what you mean by this.
  • #6,804
  • Edited 7:44am Dec 11, 2008 7:42am | Edited 7:44am
Quoting cliffedwards
USDCAD at stress level..2480
Under pressure from OPEC Blah Blah, contango and oil rally...
Bounced as expected from yesterdays low but got to be under serious pressue to break to Monday low ..and potentially down as far as 2140s even 1869
Seems to me only thing holding it up is the CarMakers bailout bill confusion and delay ..WATCH THIS...
As always looking for TA S&R trade but these fundies important background..
Hope ya all got this, or some of the other $ breakouts..
Looney...170 in 60 minutes ..
Im out

WTI falling fast
  • #6,805
  • Dec 11, 2008 7:57am Dec 11, 2008 7:57am
Quoting cliffedwards
Hope ya all got this, or some of the other $ breakouts..
Looney...170 in 60 minutes ..
Im out

WTI falling fast
Well done cliff.

I set an alert but ignored it as I deceided to focus on EURUSD instead - what a let down that was!
  • #6,806
  • Dec 11, 2008 8:31am Dec 11, 2008 8:31am
So there was a 30 pip reaction at 13256 but that was hardly worth the wait.

So back to 13300, how about a target of 13112?

S/r and a Fib 38.2% retracement of the rally since Tuesday (4hr chart) or 50% starting from Wednesdays retracement back to 12900.
  • #6,807
  • Edited 11:11am Dec 11, 2008 10:45am | Edited 11:11am
Hey RC ....maybe this it

YES YES YES out now for 30
Keep an eye on Looney.. bounce possible at 1.21 band
  • #6,808
  • Edited 11:20am Dec 11, 2008 11:07am | Edited 11:20am
Quoting cliffedwards
Hey RC ....maybe this it

YES YES YES out now for 30
Already too much of a sell off earlier around 60-80 range for a pivot, and psycologically I wasn't ready to trade the short BO.

Oh well there's over 500 pips in missed set ups today, at least it's there for the taking!
  • #6,809
  • Dec 11, 2008 11:24am Dec 11, 2008 11:24am
the suport line will hold?( target 38 fib on the chart)

the eur usd also on a significnt ternig point
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: sr1 usd jpy.gif Size: 15 KB
  • #6,810
  • Dec 11, 2008 11:51am Dec 11, 2008 11:51am
Quoting FX fuel
the suport line will hold?( target 38 fib on the chart)

the eur usd also on a significnt ternig point
9355 is certainly a significant level. However in my opinion the pair will find resistance at around 9263. This is a 78.6 Fib level of the last down trend and convergence with a 4H Trend line.

I am still hoping to test 9089 for a good rally.

Comments and criticism welcome!
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: usdjpy111208.jpg Size: 216 KB
  • #6,811
  • Dec 11, 2008 12:06pm Dec 11, 2008 12:06pm
Quoting RedCabbage
9355 is certainly a significant level. However in my opinion the pair will find resistance at around 9263. This is a 78.6 Fib level of the last down trend and convergence with a 4H Trend line.

I am still hoping to test 9089 for a good rally.

Comments and criticism welcome!
Im totally onboard with that analysis RC....
But (Im sure like you) Ill be hedging a breakout.. LoL
  • #6,812
  • Dec 11, 2008 12:25pm Dec 11, 2008 12:25pm
Quoting cliffedwards
Im totally onboard with that analysis RC....
But (Im sure like you) Ill be hedging a breakout.. LoL
Crazy, crazy day it's been like watching fireworks go off!

That's it I'm dizzy now so it's time for a shower then off out.

Tomorrow I really must get back to posting up some charts as promised, this thread has been lacking input recently.
  • #6,813
  • Dec 11, 2008 1:26pm Dec 11, 2008 1:26pm
Quoting cliffedwards
Hey RC ....maybe this it

YES YES YES out now for 30
Keep an eye on Looney.. bounce possible at 1.21 band
Hope someone got a trade on the bounce.. retrace was a textbook 130+
Please tell me SOMEONE took 50/ 80 PIPS off the 1.22 breakback for free..
  • #6,814
  • Dec 11, 2008 7:25pm Dec 11, 2008 7:25pm
Hats off to Billyrayvalentine for a great thread.

gray
  • #6,815
  • Dec 11, 2008 8:32pm Dec 11, 2008 8:32pm
Hi,

looking to add some onto this as i belive its proved itself enough after yesterday's break of 13000 a retest of 13290 would see me adding to my position. If this level breaks too hard I'll consider scaling out. Lots of tipsters with conflicting views in the press at the moment about this one. Either way a whole load of buy orders have been filled and it seems a shame not to jump on board for now.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: srb1.gif Size: 39 KB
  • #6,816
  • Dec 11, 2008 9:32pm Dec 11, 2008 9:32pm
BRV, we miss you man. Hope everything is ok
  • #6,817
  • Dec 11, 2008 10:10pm Dec 11, 2008 10:10pm
Quoting TrendSetter
You are welcome. I could post the file if you want me to, but due to the fact that it refers to the system created for Fibonacci Trader it wouldn't really be of much use to those who use MetaTrader. But if you still want it, just let me know.
Hi TrendSetter..

I've taken a look at the Fibonacci Trader website and the info contained in the Journals is very complicated and designed to get you to buy the Fibonacci Trader system. My question is how much of that system do you actually use in your daily forex trading? I tried to download your S&R PDF file so I could get a better understand what you are doing but I'm getting some adobe error message when I try to open the file.
  • #6,818
  • Dec 12, 2008 12:28am Dec 12, 2008 12:28am
Hi Trendsetter

Couldyou explain how to calculate the average balance line and the settings for the MACD

Ive been reviewing the strategy and its great using pullbacks (on a 5 min tf) - but i need to try and change it a weekly cycle as i want to trade on an EOD tf

Thanks
  • #6,819
  • Dec 12, 2008 3:17am Dec 12, 2008 3:17am
Quoting TrendSetter
Do you have 20 pips S/L for all pairs? EURJPY has a much greater daily pip range than e.g. AUDUSD. Yes, for all. In the case of EJ and such wider range currencies I either enter late or not at all. But it always depends on market condition, ALWAYS. 30 pips is the most I will cosider on this and it is in a situation where I am trading a spiked candle and need to cover the shadow/wick. But, that's just me. After a while you will start judging your trades and know what you are willing to risk.

What is your average Reward/Risk ratio?...
As EURJPY is a product of USDJPY and EURUSD - isn't it better to trade the majors?

Can you explain your position entry, exit and management a bit more? Sorry confused.

Thanks and best regards

Thomas
  • #6,820
  • Dec 12, 2008 4:14am Dec 12, 2008 4:14am
Quoting cliffedwards
Im totally onboard with that analysis RC....
But (Im sure like you) Ill be hedging a breakout.. LoL
I have to laugh about yesterday, it was like setting up a firework display with someone running around behind me lighting everything!

It was topped off by a SMS alert arriving for the USDJPY breaking through 9110.
It was 3-30am, I'd forgotten to cancel the alarm, I was half tempted to get up and trade it as I knew it would be a big one.

260 pip breakout, did anyone in the asian session get that one?
18 traders viewing now