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Where can I learn more about Price Action like those in James16 charts? 9 replies

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james16 Chart Thread

  • #16,641
  • Dec 10, 2008 1:01pm Dec 10, 2008 1:01pm
You watching theese Mark?
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  • #16,642
  • Dec 10, 2008 1:29pm Dec 10, 2008 1:29pm
Quoting Achilles28
Hi Guys,

I've got a question about Fibs and trend reversals.

Using Fibs, how do we know a trend reversal has taken place?

In other words, how do we know which way to project our retracements (buy or sell)?
Hey Achilles I am a bit confused on your question. I think you are asking how do you know where to draw your fibs? If that is the question you draw the fibs from highs to lows.

You can have fibs both ways, you need to identify swing points.

So look at the first chart. I draw a fib from the swing low point to the swing high point looking to get back long on the retracement. So price made it back to the 38.2 and the continued up.


Now look at chart 2, same chart. We can also draw a fib from swing high, to the NEW swing low formed(the one formed at the previous chart 38.2), and look for shorts. Notice this time price retraced to the 61.8 bounced briefly and continued on upwards.


Now as you can see fibs can be drawn both ways. The bigger the swing points the more weight they usually carry. So for example in the charts showed previously, chart 1 was the larger swing points(ie the distance b/w swing low to swing high was greater), this means that there was a larger move to the upside. Thus most likely people are going to look to buy dips. Chart 2 was simply a brief smaller move that occurred within this larger move.

Sorry if this wasn't your question at all!

Mike
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  • #16,643
  • Dec 10, 2008 1:58pm Dec 10, 2008 1:58pm
sorry not read back for a couple of hours...

anyone flag this trade
off trendline and double top
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  • #16,644
  • Dec 10, 2008 2:31pm Dec 10, 2008 2:31pm
Quoting rustyjeff
You watching theese Mark?
Yes, I got back just in time for a touch.... and bought e/j, u/j and g/j back when dow touched 8650. Let's go dow, up, up to 9000 again.
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  • #16,645
  • Dec 10, 2008 2:35pm Dec 10, 2008 2:35pm
uj, ej, gj pbs
looking for continuation higher, but I could be wrong...
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  • #16,646
  • Dec 10, 2008 2:44pm Dec 10, 2008 2:44pm
Quoting raczekfx
uj, ej, gj pbs
looking for continuation higher, but I could be wrong...
I just closed all my trades. I'm currently flat. In black on all of them, but I just am not liking how the market is moving for longs. I keep seeing people buy the dollar. It's like every time we get a move to sell the dollar, the buyers come right back in... I wouldn't be surprised if we see a continuation of the current trend (bearish) going forward... and if it doesn't, oh well. I'm not willing to accept the risk at this point, so I closed them all out.
Mr. Trend
  • #16,647
  • Dec 10, 2008 2:53pm Dec 10, 2008 2:53pm
Quoting raczekfx
uj, ej, gj pbs
looking for continuation higher, but I could be wrong...
Hi Raczekfx


Do the big BEOBs on your charts not concern you with these trades?

cheers


fxp
  • #16,648
  • Dec 10, 2008 3:00pm Dec 10, 2008 3:00pm
Quoting raczekfx
Yes, I got back just in time for a touch.... and bought e/j, u/j and g/j back when dow touched 8650. Let's go dow, up, up to 9000 again.

Hey Rac

so what you're saying is if the us equities go up then the yen should weaken? therefore buy yen crosses also?

thanks

Simon
  • #16,649
  • Dec 10, 2008 3:10pm Dec 10, 2008 3:10pm
Quoting fxprocessor
Hi Raczekfx


Do the big BEOBs on your charts not concern you with these trades?

cheers


fxp
a little, that's why stops are below those pbs for now.
  • #16,650
  • Dec 10, 2008 3:15pm Dec 10, 2008 3:15pm
Quoting simoncs
Hey Rac

so what you're saying is if the us equities go up then the yen should weaken? therefore buy yen crosses also?

thanks

Simon
no, i'm only using them as a barometer for my trades. if speculators are buying equities, appetite can also appear for riskier currencies. not always true but it's just another tool in a box. it's worth observing different markets if you're a trader. after a while, things will jump out at you from your charts.
  • #16,651
  • Dec 10, 2008 3:47pm Dec 10, 2008 3:47pm
Ascending wedge with pin at 4H resistance. I don't like the left eye on the pin much. Basically, I would've liked to see the bulls take it a bit higher than they did.
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Mr. Trend
  • #16,652
  • Dec 10, 2008 3:53pm Dec 10, 2008 3:53pm
Here's a little short I'm going to take here soon... EURCAD, 4H at resistance... my target is the bottom red line. Not only do I have that, but I also have a good probability that the EUR will drop as well, which means this should work out... we'll see.
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Mr. Trend
  • #16,653
  • Dec 10, 2008 4:01pm Dec 10, 2008 4:01pm
Quoting Mr Trend
Ascending wedge with pin at 4H resistance. I don't like the left eye on the pin much. Basically, I would've liked to see the bulls take it a bit higher than they did.
... I've been looking for ... 1.33, later in a week....
.
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  • #16,654
  • Dec 10, 2008 4:06pm Dec 10, 2008 4:06pm
Quoting raczekfx
no, i'm only using them as a barometer for my trades. if speculators are buying equities, appetite can also appear for riskier currencies. not always true but it's just another tool in a box. it's worth observing different markets if you're a trader. after a while, things will jump out at you from your charts.
interesting thanks
  • #16,655
  • Dec 10, 2008 4:39pm Dec 10, 2008 4:39pm
Quoting raczekfx
... I've been looking for ... 1.33, later in a week....
.
Well I agree with you. I felt the same way all the way up to today... and we definitely have an ugly formed double bottom after a long down move on the EURUSD... but... something just doesn't feel right in how the markets are moving. Ya know you kinda get a feel after awhile.... don't know. I think anything is possible at this point. I'm just not willing to accept the risk anymore so I dumped it. Took my 200 pips and ran.
Mr. Trend
  • #16,656
  • Dec 10, 2008 5:10pm Dec 10, 2008 5:10pm
Quoting Mr Trend
Well I agree with you. I felt the same way all the way up to today... and we definitely have an ugly formed double bottom after a long down move on the EURUSD... but... something just doesn't feel right in how the markets are moving. Ya know you kinda get a feel after awhile.... don't know. I think anything is possible at this point. I'm just not willing to accept the risk anymore so I dumped it. Took my 200 pips and ran.
I'm not comfortable either. I let both trades I had on stop out and left it that way. Like you said, it's like people just HAVE to go the dollar still somewhere.
Bundy's status today: "Waiting..."
  • #16,657
  • Dec 10, 2008 5:15pm Dec 10, 2008 5:15pm
COT shows the big boys heading long and everyone else heading further short. Typical. lol
Bundy's status today: "Waiting..."
  • #16,658
  • Dec 10, 2008 5:50pm Dec 10, 2008 5:50pm
Quoting bundyraider
COT shows the big boys heading long and everyone else heading further short. Typical. lol
always
if not.. forex would go only in one direction and would not exist.
But at the end... it is only banks trading monthly and yearly... and big boys daily and weekly...

edit: oh.. hello to this thread... I like it.. I trade price action with fibs.
  • #16,659
  • Dec 10, 2008 8:07pm Dec 10, 2008 8:07pm
Quoting raczekfx
... I've been looking for ... 1.33, later in a week....
.
You got a nice 38.2 from the last swing right there too. if it breaks out today, we're definitely seeing 1.33...

From there, it's very typical to see double bottoms come back and test the apex... then resume back up... so you could have multiple entries here if you play your cards right... depending on if you wanna wait or scale into some positions... good times.
Mr. Trend
  • #16,660
  • Dec 10, 2008 9:03pm Dec 10, 2008 9:03pm
Quoting Mr Trend
You got a nice 38.2 from the last swing right there too. if it breaks out today, we're definitely seeing 1.33...

From there, it's very typical to see double bottoms come back and test the apex... then resume back up... so you could have multiple entries here if you play your cards right... depending on if you wanna wait or scale into some positions... good times.
nice, why is it taking that long...
I'm going to scale out my posts. Someone's definitely watching and testing my patience...
Patience is paying off right now, very nice.
I'm not a big fan of scaling in; I usually buy 1/3 or half at ppz or when I get a 'green' light and the rest after PA forms (it could be on any tf)
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