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4 Hour Strategy (MACD)

  • #2,261
  • Mar 10, 2007 6:52pm Mar 10, 2007 6:52pm
Hi Alcastro,

Here is my take on the GBP. Actually we have a similar situation as Euro. We have a descending triangle (yellow dashed line) on the 4 although it's not as clean as the one on Tamaras's chart a few post's back. The difference with this one? We have more pips that might be snatched on the counter if it breaks to the long side. With the right signal, I would take this long and try to grab a handfull of pips although it could go all the way to the 89 SMA toward the magenta arrow before it heads down. There are 150 pips between the price and the 89 SMA. This one is kind iffy and if anyone comments they would be appreciated.

Jim
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  • #2,262
  • Mar 10, 2007 7:04pm Mar 10, 2007 7:04pm
Quoting alcastro
Does somebody know where is the MACD that shows the time left for the bar to be completed? Which was the post #?

I have been looking for it in the thread but cannot find it, even though I know it is there.
Alcastro, are you referring to the time indicator that includes Timezones as well as the time left for the bar? If so here it is.
Let me know if this is what you were looking for, thanks.
Chau,
D
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File Type: mq4 Clock_v1_3.mq4   8 KB | 946 downloads
  • #2,263
  • Mar 10, 2007 7:57pm Mar 10, 2007 7:57pm
Hipster,
thanks a lot. I will take a look at it.

H1H1,

I agree with your analysis. But I will hold my horses until I see a clear confirmation in the price. But if it goes long it will go looooong!
  • #2,264
  • Mar 10, 2007 8:17pm Mar 10, 2007 8:17pm
Quoting hard1head1
Hi Alcastro,

Here is my take on the GBP. Actually we have a similar situation as Euro. We have a descending triangle (yellow dashed line) on the 4 although it's not as clean as the one on Tamaras's chart a few post's back. The difference with this one? We have more pips that might be snatched on the counter if it breaks to the long side. With the right signal, I would take this long and try to grab a handfull of pips although it could go all the way to the 89 SMA toward the magenta arrow before it heads down. There are 150 pips between the price and the 89 SMA. This one is kind iffy and if anyone comments they would be appreciated.

Jim
I agree GBP is in a similar situation as the Euro. But, my thinking is that both pairs are taking a breathe (retracement) before descending lower. US News on Friday seems to support this theory. Sunday, we may see more uptrend towards the upper triangle (GBP) and 21 (Euro), and then some exhaling downward. Who knows?

This is the cool part. Phillip's 4 hour MACD Strategy (signals) gives us a fighting change (edge) to show us the way.

Jim
Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
  • #2,265
  • Mar 10, 2007 8:41pm Mar 10, 2007 8:41pm
Quoting Chandra
Hi Tamkras,
But the previous bounce did not happen off the previous inside bottom. Am I right?
Thanks.
-Chandra.
Dear Chandra, it did indeed. I enclose a chart. And thank you for the opportunity to respond. The reversal started from the inside. If a 16 pips difference (the most recent low and the high of historical inside bottom) is indeed a high-risk proposition then I should be looking elsewhere and not this pair, historically known for wide ranges. I am, indeed, open to constructive suggestions how to improve 4HR MACD trades. I was hoping I could contribute. Good luck. Yours, T.
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  • #2,266
  • Edited 9:46pm Mar 10, 2007 8:48pm | Edited 9:46pm
Quoting fxhermit
Yes, over the past few years the Elephant has also given me a nice ride and I am looking forward to continuing to explore the landscape. For me, this landscape looks the most beautiful in the 4 hour time frame. This is where I have found "channel surfing" to be the most lucrative and find it very similar to "swing trading" the stock markets which is where I got my start and developed my passion for trading some years ago (gosh how time flies ). Do I also look at longer term time frames (daily, weekly, monthly)? You bet I do! Here is where the Elephant often defines it's intended path within support/resistance and price pivots. These longer term time frames carry a lot of importance Identifying turning points and breakouts here can often make for a nice "heads up" for the 4 hour trading window. So now those big time frames suddenly become affordable for this little flea.

Once I have marked up my charts in all these time frames, I am happy, as Phil says - to wait for the market to come to me, that is ultimately how the Elephant gives you a nice ride. Do I scalp in the 5 minute and 15 minute time frames as well? You bet I do. I am a firm believer in maximizing all of one's analysis to the utmost - that after all is the hidden power of the flea!

Hope thats not to much bla..bla..bla..

P.S. I am only a hermit when I'm trading, the rest of the time my life is very full and active. Currently taking weekly dance lessons - tango ,cha cha cha, swing - highly recommended and the best fun ever!

In life, there is a time to be soft and fuzzy on the outside as well as a time to be cold blue steel on the inside.
Great response. I am still trying to understand, Fxhermit, if from your comment there was a MACD short or long signal at that time of my entry. The decision is one. Thanks kindly for your clarification.
  • #2,267
  • Mar 10, 2007 10:45pm Mar 10, 2007 10:45pm
Thanks Phillip......the pdf file you posted this morning has opened without a problem.

I haven't had chance to study it closely yet, but I must compliment you once again (having now viewed the full document) on the very clear and detailed illustrations and to the obvious effort and thought process that has gone into it's creation.

Thank you for sharing your strategy,

johnny
  • #2,268
  • Mar 10, 2007 10:58pm Mar 10, 2007 10:58pm
Hi TamKras!

I just sat down to do some analysis for the week ahead and found something soooooo interesting! (you probably know about it already, but I want to share anyway).

Went back on Cable looking for inside tops to help define movements for the coming week (from Daily charts). The interesting thing is that two tops (dating back to 2004 and 2005) seem to have been in play this past week! The high of 1.9358 and the low of 1.9187ish were contained within the Dec 5 -6 04 inside top of 1.9358 & the inside top of March 9, 2005 (1.9202) (20 pips were breached by tail).

Know this isn't written very logically, just wanted to share my excitement to see the memory of the market!! Also note that price action is at the bottom range of two channel intersections...up & down...think the market needs to find a direction!

Hope you had a great weekend!

Donna
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  • #2,269
  • Mar 10, 2007 11:05pm Mar 10, 2007 11:05pm
If anyone's interested here is the chart w/inside tops
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  • #2,270
  • Mar 10, 2007 11:08pm Mar 10, 2007 11:08pm
Quoting yorkyjohnny
Thanks Phillip......the pdf file you posted this morning has opened without a problem.

I haven't had chance to study it closely yet, but I must compliment you once again (having now viewed the full document) on the very clear and detailed illustrations and to the obvious effort and thought process that has gone into it's creation.

Thank you for sharing your strategy,

johnny
Your in for a treat. Absorb it.

Jim
Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
  • #2,271
  • Mar 11, 2007 12:01am Mar 11, 2007 12:01am
Here are my thoughts on cable:

In the back of my mind, the daily chart shows 2 inside days (Mar. 7 & 8 are inside days to mar 6). High and low of March 6 are 1.9358 and 1.9258 (notice this has been the range in play for most of the week). The market is waiting for a directional sign, but is biased towards the downside (price is good distance from 89 SMA on 4 hour chart, but has been bunched within the 8 and 21 EMAs. A flag has formed on the 4 Hr. chart, which indicates that a break of the TL (1.9279) favors a further decline ( break below 1.9180 could confirm).

Friday was NFP and we did not see a very large move in price. In fact, after "tailing," price went right back to its range. The news was supposed to be USD positive, but this was not evidenced by a strong downward move. Is the market sending a signal that the flag formation will not break to the downside as is normally the case? Or is more info needed from GBP this week to determine direction?

Many of the candles from last week's consolidation show long tails to the downside, indicating profit taking and accumulation. (does this mean higher probability of upside move or is it indicative of a neutral range play? I don't know). Current MACD is a small positive reading (.0001), which indicates that the ranging behavior is still favored. Market indecision evident w/2 doji candles and a star at Resistance TL.

With the information above always considered, here are what I think the potential strategies are:

1. Continuation of range trading conditions. Poor MACD signals (zigzag around zero line) followed by prices contained within 1.9275 and 1.9350

2. TC (from recent move down) given by price breaking below 1.9279 -- target recent low of 1.9187. Should price break below 1.9180 with MACD signal indicating lower lows, target would be 1.9115 (Nov 10, 06 IND) & finally 200 SMA (daily) of 1.9043.

3. Stronger + MACD reading w/price break above 1.9358 (close) would target 1.9440 (TL Resistance). Break above 1.9440 would target 89 SMA at 1.9473. Expect price to reverse at one of these locations and retreat back towards 21 EMA

All scenarios will be confirmed by MACD and trades will be taken as indicated by trigger if r:r justifies.
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  • #2,272
  • Mar 11, 2007 12:19am Mar 11, 2007 12:19am
Hi Chandra,

Correct me if I am mistaken, but I think you have some confusion on where the most recent inside bottom is (was). Without studying all the info Tamara has presented in this forum (and it is mighty good stuff!), did you think the most recent inside bottom was around the 116.50 level (and therefore no bounce)? If you go back to posts 1714 and 1715 ( I think), there is awesome info on the Inside Top and Bottom. Also, review all the posts by TamKras and look for discussions on nesting dolls.
  • #2,273
  • Mar 11, 2007 5:20am Mar 11, 2007 5:20am
This is my total point Jarroo, charting with trendlines is just more confirmation for direction and Rythm. If you can see it coming and prepare for it is a good thing. You cant have too much confirmation. And please Phil or anyone, tell me if I am over stepping my bounds.

Buy the way, speaking of direction and rythm, has anyone looked at the EUR/GBP lately. That upper trend line was drawn off of tops in April & July and has been tested recently twice. Could we play Phils signal off of something like this? Would it work with this pair? This would be a great technical trade, Im gonna wait for signal and demo it.

J
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  • #2,274
  • Mar 11, 2007 5:58am Mar 11, 2007 5:58am
Quoting hard1head1
This is my total point Jarroo, charting with trendlines is just more confirmation for direction and Rythm. If you can see it coming and prepare for it is a good thing. You cant have too much confirmation. And please Phil or anyone, tell me if I am over stepping my bounds.

Buy the way, speaking of direction and rythm, has anyone looked at the EUR/GBP lately. That upper trend line was drawn off of tops in April & July and has been tested recently twice. Could we play Phils signal off of something like this? Would it work with this pair? This would be a great technical trade, Im gonna wait for signal and demo it.

J
Hi J

This is what I do have on my EURGBP chart. One Daily and one 4h trendlines as support for current price. We'll see what is going to happen this week.

I am using InterbankFX broker and charts and I had one profit and loss trade with the EURGBP so far.

Willem
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Willem Forex recipe for success = Patience, discipline & hard work.
  • #2,275
  • Mar 11, 2007 6:15am Mar 11, 2007 6:15am
Quoting hard1head1
This is my total point Jarroo, charting with trendlines is just more confirmation for direction and Rythm. If you can see it coming and prepare for it is a good thing. You cant have too much confirmation. And please Phil or anyone, tell me if I am over stepping my bounds.

Buy the way, speaking of direction and rythm, has anyone looked at the EUR/GBP lately. That upper trend line was drawn off of tops in April & July and has been tested recently twice. Could we play Phils signal off of something like this? Would it work with this pair? This would be a great technical trade, Im gonna wait for signal and demo it.

J
Hi J

I did start looking at the EURGBP charts a week or two ago (also some back testing) and was impressed with what I was looking at. My observations so far:

1. Great signals and trade setups but one needs to take less number of pips profit. Also less pips stop loss needed.
2. Less choppiness in this pair.
3. It seems trendlines are important - strong resis and supp levels.

Willem
Willem Forex recipe for success = Patience, discipline & hard work.
  • #2,276
  • Mar 11, 2007 6:39am Mar 11, 2007 6:39am
Quoting Chandra
Jim, just for curiosity and to learn things, where is the 120 pip long on GBP/JPY. I do not see it on March 5, at 0:36 GMT!
Thank you.
-Chandra
Hi Chandra, that is a good suggestion about format to save time looking thruogh everything. Also if i might answer for Jim, the 120 pip wick was live while the candle was open
  • #2,277
  • Edited 9:17am Mar 11, 2007 7:02am | Edited 9:17am
Quoting FOURX
Nice posts, Dire and HH.I think that looking ahead like this and seeing the charts is a real help, although I'm sure everyone realises anything can happen.

One thing though Jim scenario #1 you state t/p and s/l are obvious,well this I I feel is one of the most important rules in trading and one of the most difficult to get right.

If you would be kind enough to show where and why you feel they should be placed I'm sure others new to trading like me would be really grateful. I think the more we see reasoning behind the t/p and more importantly s/l the easier it will become.

ps. I would like to appeal to all who are kind enough to share their views on this wonderful thread, to try to put a little bit of teaching in to this area for a short while .It would be a great help.


Cheers
Hi all .

anybody else like to help me out and shed a bit of light on the t/p and s/l that are apparantly obvious.

Please.
  • #2,278
  • Mar 11, 2007 9:23am Mar 11, 2007 9:23am
Just my take on the Gbp. The interest rate on the pair is the same. For the big boys there is no advanage to own either. At some point the news will change and we should be ready for some pipage. Just my take on why we are range bound.

pip for all
  • #2,279
  • Mar 11, 2007 9:27am Mar 11, 2007 9:27am
Phillip - Enjoying the thread, appreciating your way perceiving the markets and the creation and development your 4-hour strategy.

I remember the first time I looked at a chart and had no idea what all those lines meant! This experience has given me an idea of what it means to learn a particular way of seeing and making market decisions in terms of probabilities.

Excited by the journey, have a good week

-rab-
  • #2,280
  • Mar 11, 2007 10:03am Mar 11, 2007 10:03am
Stoplosses
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