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EOD trading system

  • #561
  • Dec 7, 2008 3:44pm Dec 7, 2008 3:44pm
Yes, you missed something. Target is the same - 5 Day ATR while entry point became closer to SL, so we have less loss pips with same profit pips.

Quoting steveshutts
Paulus,

Not sure how that is giving better risk/reward as you are getting a better entry but you are also adjusting your take profit by the same amount, or am i missing something?

I am doing this quite often when the R/R is no good but i tend to leave the same TP as it would have been from the original entry. The way i look at it, you are then taking the same signals but with a much better entry so you can afford to lose a lot more trades and still stay on top. My Eur/Aud on Friday was a bugger though! Got a lovely entry on a limit, it was...
  • #562
  • Dec 7, 2008 4:36pm Dec 7, 2008 4:36pm
Yes Dezil that is correct we have the same pips TP but as we are entering closer to the fixed SL then the risk reward will be better for example



Short 2000
Stop 2200
Target 1800

So our pips to target is 200 our stop is 200 so RR is 1:1

Now using refined entry next day we get an up bar and closes higher than the actual signal entry and CCI is still saying short so we enter short

Now we have this

Short 2100
Stop 2200
TP is still 200 pips so it will now be 1900

Now we have target 200 pips stop loss 100 pips ..RR 2:1

Paulus
  • #563
  • Dec 7, 2008 5:42pm Dec 7, 2008 5:42pm
When I have been doing back testing I have used the original TP that is calculated from the signal bar.

Short 2000
Stop 2200
Target 1800

So our pips to target is 200 our stop is 200 so RR is 1:1

Short 2100
Stop 2200
Target still 1800

Now we have target 300pips stop loss 100 pips ..RR 3:1

This marked increase in RR will then more than offset the fact that some entries may not have been taken because of too small a retrace

Mister ED
  • #564
  • Dec 8, 2008 1:05am Dec 8, 2008 1:05am
Thanks Mr Ed

All goes into the pot

Thanks for your help

Paulus
  • #565
  • Dec 8, 2008 3:34am Dec 8, 2008 3:34am
Quoting Paulus
Yes Dezil that is correct we have the same pips TP but as we are entering closer to the fixed SL then the risk reward will be better for example



Short 2000
Stop 2200
Target 1800

So our pips to target is 200 our stop is 200 so RR is 1:1

Now using refined entry next day we get an up bar and closes higher than the actual signal entry and CCI is still saying short so we enter short

Now we have this

Short 2100
Stop 2200
TP is still 200 pips so it will now be 1900

Now we have target 200 pips stop loss 100 pips ..RR 2:1

Paulus
Doh!!!

Thanks for clearing that up guys. I should have gone through that a little more eh. Nice one

Steve
  • #566
  • Dec 8, 2008 1:08pm Dec 8, 2008 1:08pm
Ok I have managed to update my spread sheet and represents taking every signal at or as close to 9pm as possible

Here are some facts and figures

Number of trades = 35
Number of wins = 25
% winners = 71.4%
Number of trades open = 2
Average risk reward = 1.46 :1

Bank

Starting bank = 5k sterling
Initial risk per trade 5% of bank until bank doubled then changed to 2.5% of bank per trade

Gain as of now = £10,679
% ROI = 213%
bank stands at = £15,679

Number of days since 1st trade = 40
Gain per day inc week ends = £267
Number of trades per day = 0.88

Trades currently open

USDCHF 2nd Dec TP 12403 SL 295 pips rr 0.62:1

EURCHF 2nd Dec TP 15709 SL 280 pips rr 0.74:1


Chart of bank growth
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: bank 2.jpg Size: 38 KB
  • #567
  • Dec 8, 2008 1:28pm Dec 8, 2008 1:28pm
Quoting Paulus
Ok I have managed to update my spread sheet and represents taking every signal at or as close to 9pm as possible

Here are some facts and figures

Number of trades = 35
Number of wins = 25
% winners = 71.4%
Number of trades open = 2
Average risk reward = 1.46 :1

Bank

Starting bank = 5k sterling
Initial risk per trade 5% of bank until bank doubled then changed to 2.5% of bank per trade

Gain as of now = £10,679
% ROI = 213%
bank stands at = £15,679

Number of days since 1st trade = 40
Gain per day inc week ends = £267
Number of trades...
Hi Paulus

Have all the trades been taken on the day of signal or any of them taken on advance entry on a retrace after the signal day?
Regards
  • #568
  • Dec 8, 2008 1:43pm Dec 8, 2008 1:43pm
Hi

All on day at or as close to 9pm using basic entry

No retracement on price etc

paulus
  • #569
  • Dec 9, 2008 3:02am Dec 9, 2008 3:02am
Trades currently open

USDCHF 2nd Dec TP 12403 SL 295 pips rr 0.62:1

EURCHF 2nd Dec TP 15709 SL 280 pips rr 0.74:1


Hi Paulus

This USDCHF trade is not clear to me, it seems that it is not standard signal
or I am doing something wrong. Please could you post image of your entry for USDCHF on 2nd dec ? Thank you in advance.
  • #570
  • Dec 9, 2008 6:04am Dec 9, 2008 6:04am
Hi Paul

I didnt get any signals using the EOD indicator or manually reviewing on USDCHF on 2nd Dec
  • #571
  • Dec 9, 2008 8:15am Dec 9, 2008 8:15am
Sorry I put in the wrong date its the 5th

but the figures are correct
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: usdchf 5th.gif Size: 14 KB
  • #572
  • Dec 9, 2008 11:39am Dec 9, 2008 11:39am
Hi !

Today we might get some new signals! Notice the signal on GBP/CHF has almost the same stoch/cci constellation on weekly TF, which could be a nice confirmation
  • #573
  • Dec 9, 2008 11:47am Dec 9, 2008 11:47am
Hi Guys
An interesting situation on euro/aud. Yesterday I went short on eod signal on this pair and am -121 pips at moment, however if things stay as they are
I now have a long eod signal on this pair, do I close short and go long taking the loss what ever it will be in a few hours time or do I stick with short
till it hits stop loss, any ideas? I dont think Paulus has mentioned this scenario as yet.
Kind Regards
Geoff
  • #574
  • Dec 9, 2008 11:59am Dec 9, 2008 11:59am
Geoffrey,
Am new to this, but this is what I see on my chart.

The valid signal did happen, however when the stoch ticked down for the first time, the cci was over 0, so no short was possible.

The next bar the cci did barely get under 0, but the stoch had already ticked down once, meaning it was a continuation.

Is why I considered it not a valid signal anyway.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: euraud-eod.gif Size: 14 KB
  • #575
  • Edited 12:37pm Dec 9, 2008 12:18pm | Edited 12:37pm
Hi DanFX,

Be carful, because it depends which broker you have. If your broker is alpari, and I think paulus takes his signals from alpari, then there would be no signal until now. I trade this strategie on IBFX and there I have a signal.
That's because some MT4 broker have sunday bars and some don't have it. If you want to trade the same signals like Paulus I would recommend to install a alpari demo, so you trade the same signals like Paulus.
But I think because of the price action gbp/chf could be a good short.
Because of the sunday candle you have also a ATR (5) at IBFX of 315 Pips and at alpari ATR (5) is 350 Pips!!!!!

Hi Geoff,

I think you should do the same, altough I saw no short signal at IBFX and also no short signal at alpari on eur/aud.

Erkro
  • #576
  • Dec 9, 2008 1:20pm Dec 9, 2008 1:20pm
Hi Geoff

I have no short are you running the indicator kindly written by Dezil if not here it is

If you look at my chart on the red vertical line we have a down tick on Stoch above the 50 line BUT the CCI is above 0.00 so no short signal

the next day ..the yellow vertical line the CCI was down below 0.00 BUt the stoch had tisked down the day before so is just carrying out another down move and so is not a signal

The valid entry is today as per the white vertical line and I will be taking it as close as possible to 9pm today if the signal is still there

In an ideal word I would tell you to close out the short and take the long as that is a system signal but that will results in you taking a loss.Not an easy decision could you post a chart of your chart indicating the short signal

Cheers

paulus
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: no short.gif Size: 23 KB
Attached File(s)
File Type: mq4 EOD.mq4   5 KB | 368 downloads
  • #577
  • Dec 9, 2008 1:32pm Dec 9, 2008 1:32pm
I have:

Short AUDUSD
Short CADCHF
and
Long EURAUD
Regards
  • #578
  • Dec 9, 2008 1:56pm Dec 9, 2008 1:56pm
Hi Howard

Just lost AUDUSD but it may come back by 9pm

Agree on the other 2

cheers

P
  • #579
  • Dec 9, 2008 1:56pm Dec 9, 2008 1:56pm
Hi Paulus and guys,
Just to let you know what happened, I am trading on Alpari uk with a small live account and am using 0.02 lots per trade at moment which is roughly about 10pence a pip. Ok, so on dec8 cci ticked downfrom abovezero line to read -9.1877 at close of candle,stochs had ticked down from above 50 line to read 31.3850. EOD indicator(from this thread) showing red dot and red arrow, so a valid short signal and I am in. Now I have a long signal, this is concerning me because my charts seem to be different to yours. If someone will tell me in really simple terms how to post a chart I will gladly do so.
Geoff
  • #580
  • Dec 9, 2008 2:17pm Dec 9, 2008 2:17pm
Geoffrey,
The issue is probably your stoch rule. It doesnt just have to tick down from above 50, it has to be the FIRST tick down from previously going up. So basically, if the last tick of the stoch was up, and now it's ticking down, it's valid. If the last tick of the stoch was down, and it's ticking down again, it is not.

To post your chart, right click on your chart and save it as an image.
Then to post it here, click manage attachments under your reply window, browse and add the image file, then post.
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