Auslanco - GBP/JPY and GBP/USD (newstrade) | Page 7340 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Related Instruments

GBP/JPY, GBP/USD

Similar Threads

Auslanco-GBP/JPY Strength Indicator strategy 345 replies

Auslanco 15min GBP/JPY startegy 630 replies

My MT4 indicators for Auslanco's strategy 92 replies

Auslanco 15 minute Strategy Oanda FXManager Updates.. 62 replies

Questions About Auslanco's Trades 72 replies

Attachments: Auslanco - GBP/JPY and GBP/USD (newstrade)
Exit Attachments

Auslanco - GBP/JPY and GBP/USD (newstrade)

  • #146,781
  • Dec 6, 2008 10:15am Dec 6, 2008 10:15am
Quoting lilmoe
the fact that we show some "reversal" on GJ and GU only makes my assumptions of the big coming drop on monday and all week next week stronger. double-tops, double-bottoms, head and shoulders, bull/bear flags, are all the other patterns of what is called "history repeating itself". these cannot be found in fundies, they can be found only in the charts;

take a look back at the week that ended on the 3rd of october. we had the EXACT same pattern where chart set themselves up for LONGS before we made 2 major drops, the 1st being 174 and the second...
SPOT ON! LIKE ALWAYS

good to know i have some backup to my views
  • #146,782
  • Dec 6, 2008 10:20am Dec 6, 2008 10:20am
tiaforex,

if you take the volume into consideration, you see that this bar came up on absolutely no demand on an area were we have bounced off of twice the last weeks. this means we head towards an interim support from the downsie with nobody buying into that. how will the market go up from here? noone stepping in below 139 to seriously stop that drop and in the 139 region the support also has successfully been removed. lin no way this was a sustainable move.
  • #146,783
  • Dec 6, 2008 10:44am Dec 6, 2008 10:44am
A reversal insight?? Looking at the weekly chart, we getting ready to start banging of a support level that has been in place since 1995 and the ATR is as high as it's been in that same time frame, I am not sure what to make of this a break below means further downward pressure? Perhaps a reversal? Any thoughts?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpjpy.gif Size: 25 KB
  • #146,784
  • Dec 6, 2008 10:45am Dec 6, 2008 10:45am
Quoting rgitt05
Excellent Analyst...This is the reason why I love this board..Elite traders like yourself always back your arguement with charts and reasoning...

We can't always be right but at least a chart with explantions to support your POV helps the newbies and incorrect calls on this board..


Awesome...

I always look at the Higher TF for overall direction..

not only the dailies. but also we have a good continuation pattern on the weekly chart that i posted wednesday (or thursday?)... anyway here are some links to different sites explaining the 3 way continuation pattern:

http://candlestickforum.com/PPF/Para...andlestick.asp
http://www.learning-to-invest.com/Ca...terns--48.html

here's also a rule of thumb for that pattern to be reliable:

1. A downtrend is in progress. A long black candle forms.
2. A group of small-bodied candles follow, preferably white bodied.
3. The close of any of the uptrend days does not close higher than the open
of the big white candle.
4. The final day opens up into the body of the last uptrend day and proceeds
to close below the close of the first big black candle day.

take a look at your weekly chart, that's what i call PERFECT!

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gj_weekly_three_way.gif Size: 10 KB
  • #146,785
  • Dec 6, 2008 10:46am Dec 6, 2008 10:46am
Quoting NightMoves
A reversal insight?? Looking at the weekly chart, we getting ready to start banging of a support level that has been in place since 1995 and the ATR is as high as it's been in that same time frame, I am not sure what to make of this a break below means further downward pressure? Perhaps a reversal? Any thoughts?
read the last 2-3 pages and you see what we think.
  • #146,786
  • Dec 6, 2008 10:52am Dec 6, 2008 10:52am
Quoting lilmoe
the fact that we show some "reversal" on GJ and GU only makes my assumptions of the big coming drop on monday and all week next week stronger. double-tops, double-bottoms, head and shoulders, bull/bear flags, are all the other patterns of what is called "history repeating itself". these cannot be found in fundies, they can be found only in the charts;

take a look back at the week that ended on the 3rd of october. we had the EXACT same pattern where chart set themselves up for LONGS before we made 2 major drops, the 1st being 174 and the second...
.. Great analysis ..
I couldn't agree more .. am getting more familiar with your system. I especially like the HD div from hourly to daily .. very reliable ..
I see around 600-800 pips drop next week, maybe Monday alone would take care of it just like that .. hope so .. :-)
  • #146,787
  • Dec 6, 2008 10:56am Dec 6, 2008 10:56am
I agree the bias is still bearish,and I believe that we still have roughly 700 pips before that level starts to really play into this equation however I am thinking it may consolidate once that level is reached and who knows from there if it breaks I think it will be a free fall. anyway it was just a thought

--Brian
  • #146,788
  • Dec 6, 2008 11:00am Dec 6, 2008 11:00am
Quoting Dr.Geppynius
SPOT ON! LIKE ALWAYS

good to know i have some backup to my views
oh u sure do!

here's a 4h chart that proves that our chances of going down are VERY good.

take a look what happened october 3rd on the 4h chart. we had a BREAKOUT, that fooled me once and made me lose 300 pips on monday the following week. as we broke out upwards, i came to believe that buying the following dip was the best thing to do. i was wrong, and market movers sucked LOTS of traders like me into going long, and made that sucker go alllllll the way down to 174 before another leg down to 166...

first chart is back in october, second is the current one. (both 1h)

just how similar can this be?!?!?!?!

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gj_1h_1.gif Size: 16 KB


Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gj_1h_2.gif Size: 16 KB


3rd chart is a 4h chart of october 3, look closely how CCI looks like, and look again how it looks like now.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gj_4h_1.gif Size: 17 KB


Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gj_4h_2.gif Size: 17 KB
  • #146,789
  • Dec 6, 2008 11:06am Dec 6, 2008 11:06am
Quoting NightMoves
I agree the bias is still bearish,and I believe that we still have roughly 700 pips before that level starts to really play into this equation however I am thinking it may consolidate once that level is reached and who knows from there if it breaks I think it will be a free fall. anyway it was just a thought

--Brian
Yes, but options also play their role. And the Friday turned out to be a bullish reversal day but the close is not close to the previous day`s close. There is a subtle possibility of bottom formation, before trend resumption. 140.00 being a psychological level for most traders, with important data out of japan in the week ahead and also considering the most expected automaker bailout coming into positive action... Just what i feel... think about it
  • #146,790
  • Dec 6, 2008 11:12am Dec 6, 2008 11:12am
You are absolutaly right..as many times...
like I wrote I did have position short , I close it with some pips. Happy..and then watched the market. It went down to 133,15 I thought should I jump..NO..falling knife..like Karmo says..
I watched more and then I draw fibs..they showed me UP, reversal for short time..I attached a chart on previous posts.
I did not want to believe it..news so bad lets go DOWN, but when I realize NOW, all week we been going down..so many of traders put their short orders according NEWS..so what the big guys gonna do!!! Hunt for their stop losses and their positions..I JUST THINK..
I made one more trade made some 20 pips and run away..because then itr proved what You wrote NEWS are just a hint to manipulate in some case.
Your example with oil..I will add something!!!!!
I am from Slovakia..one of the biggest insurance company Allianz advertised when oil was 130 USD to invest in their NEW portfolio called OIL AS A SAFE PLACE TO INVEST - investing in oil is better then gold and it is heaven for profit!!!...NOW IS TIME!!!..it went UP to 144 and on TV was full of big advertisements about that...my insurer called me maybe 5 times a day..I just close all insurances with him, he made me mad..
End of story. My friend lost 8,9 Milion kronas ( appr.450K USD ) in a few months, they told him to hold it more, because NEWS are that Sheiks from Saudi Arabia and other OPEC nations will stop getting more oil and etc. and everything will go back to 200USD and more...
NEWS+TV+big players is very dangerous
This is just my hint and Your point is right.

[quote=Dr.Geppynius;2400951]cape, it only was strange because you have put any weight into fundies i suppose.
the fundies are just randon #s, just how the financial elite needs them to fit into their plan. if the markets drop on worse nfp numbers it was sure, if it does not drop, the bad numbers were already priced in, thats the explanation
just keep eyes open and you will realize that some time during ]
  • #146,791
  • Dec 6, 2008 11:18am Dec 6, 2008 11:18am
Quoting mktjong
.. Great analysis ..
I couldn't agree more .. am getting more familiar with your system. I especially like the HD div from hourly to daily .. very reliable ..
I see around 600-800 pips drop next week, maybe Monday alone would take care of it just like that .. hope so .. :-)
This is the chart of how I predicted about number of pips drop. The length of BC is roughly 2 times of AB. This scenario is quite reliable when you have a hidden bearish div on hourly chart with both CCI & Stoch at its extreme. Vice versa is for bullish mode.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gj-120608.gif Size: 19 KB
  • #146,792
  • Dec 6, 2008 11:18am Dec 6, 2008 11:18am
Lilmoe, I think Your charts are clear, easy to read.....
like for Dr. G...it will be here 2:00am but I will have two bottles of coffee looking forward for curious open of market...
  • #146,793
  • Dec 6, 2008 11:21am Dec 6, 2008 11:21am
Quoting capetown
You are absolutaly right..as many times...
like I wrote I did have position short , I close it with some pips. Happy..and then watched the market. It went down to 133,15 I thought should I jump..NO..falling knife..like Karmo says..
I watched more and then I draw fibs..they showed me UP, reversal for short time..I attached a chart on previous posts.
I did not want to believe it..news so bad lets go DOWN, but when I realize NOW, all week we been going down..so many of traders put their short orders according NEWS..so what the big guys gonna do!!!...
Well, din`t u see... market did drop very well after nfp and jobless claims. But there`s still time!... The news is so important that the whole trend changes macroscopically and you would feel like it`s a down trend with all technical indicators pointing down except the price. In fact, it is impossible to judge the extent to which the market is going to move...
  • #146,794
  • Edited 6:25pm Dec 6, 2008 11:26am | Edited 6:25pm
Ok Guys,

As I can see some thing of the charts, I have a following situation:

EY: short with targets 112.30 to 90.00
http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...1&d=1228577812

GY: short with targets 125.30 to 111.50
http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...1&d=1228577172

UY: short with targets 92.20 to 91.70
http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...1&d=1228582954

GU: (I am with Malcolm )
The higher TF implicating Reversal on GU and loking for higher price levels (means completition on existing waves), only when the lower TF turn bulish, we can see more RUN to Up side
http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...1&d=1228578855


OIL: Reversal: and BOTTOM: even with date from 9 or 10 December, We complete all major waves in couint of 5. For those who are BRAVE, this is a right time to start looking for Bottom Picking. Next target on UP Side I am looking are 79.50 and 87.40
http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...1&d=1228583311

$INDU: or Dow Jones industrial. Mixed outcome. The Higher TF are pointing to down side with targets @ 7200, but the smaller time frames UP with targets @ 9050. Breakout above the green Upper channel, clear the way to visit 9100 area, failure to break, then we are going DOWN again to visit 7200 area.
http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...1&d=1228580225



CONCLUSION: IF WE SEE a selloff from tomorrow, then it is clear to me that is going to come from YEN pairs, and UY, not form GU.

All charts are posted on my Journal !
HERE!
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=73638


EDIT: and please, this is not a call, DO NOT TRADE BASED ON WHAT OTHERS SAY, TRADE ONLY WHAT YOU SEE ON YOUR CHARTS and WAIT on CONFIRMATION. WE are on very LOW LEVELS, MARKET CAN TURN ANYTIME...
MY Levels are, in case you are in trade, and maket goes in your direction, just to give you an idea where the POSSIBLE TARGETS MAY BE....


Trade SAFE !!
  • #146,795
  • Dec 6, 2008 11:34am Dec 6, 2008 11:34am
Quoting Piters
Ok Guys,

As I can see some thing of the charts, I have a following situation:

EY: short with targets 112.30 to 90.00
GY: short with targets 125.30 to 111.50
UY: short with targets 92.20 to 91.70

GU: (I am with Malcolm on this)

from the other hand, the higher TF implicating Reversal on GU and loking for higher price levels (means completition on existing waves), only when the lower TF turn bulish, we can see more RUN to Up side

OIL: Reversal: and BOTTOM: even with date from 9 or 10 December, We complete all major waves in couint of 5....
Thanks Piters .. good analysis ..
Regarding oil, I haven't seen yet any news or fundamental support for higher price. The global economy is getting worse, demand for oil is decreasing. What I might see the price would retrace higher would be in January after the president elect Obama takes on the office, and its economy plan is starting to take off.
  • #146,796
  • Dec 6, 2008 11:41am Dec 6, 2008 11:41am
Quoting mktjong
Thanks Piters .. good analysis ..
Regarding oil, I haven't seen yet any news or fundamental support for higher price. The global economy is getting worse, demand for oil is decreasing. What I might see the price would retrace higher would be in January after the president elect Obama takes on the office, and its economy plan is starting to take off.
oil to me just has increased it's downside pressure. nothing yet to see which would support any upside action before 35.
  • #146,797
  • Edited 12:22pm Dec 6, 2008 11:42am | Edited 12:22pm
Quoting mktjong
Thanks Piters .. good analysis ..
Regarding oil, I haven't seen yet any news or fundamental support for higher price. The global economy is getting worse, demand for oil is decreasing. What I might see the price would retrace higher would be in January after the president elect Obama takes on the office, and its economy plan is starting to take off.
Yes, I know, my previous analysis told me that $36 was the target, some traders can remember I mentioned that price. But now from the chart we can see that all major waves are completed. However still price can slide to $36 level. but not more.. this is a very LOW levels, on the OIL. I read some article from some guy from Maryn Lunch, he is saying that we can see OIL price next Year down to $26. Interesting, but I still dont think so, again all prices are on Historicly Record Low LEvels, and now we are all in Guessing GAME..

Another thing is when EU and GU reverses, the OIL reverses as well, but I wrote the levels, you can place an ORDER (only for BRAVEHEARTS)

Cheers
  • #146,798
  • Dec 6, 2008 11:56am Dec 6, 2008 11:56am
my analysis of 139.85 is final, we are going there before any fall.
  • #146,799
  • Dec 6, 2008 12:01pm Dec 6, 2008 12:01pm
Quoting junglelion
my analysis of 139.85 is final, we are going there before any fall.
lol, make it 140 to be more round. As a matter of fact, Fact speaks more louder than words... That`s what is going to happen
  • #146,800
  • Dec 6, 2008 12:09pm Dec 6, 2008 12:09pm
Quoting zapper
lol, make it 140 to be more round. As a matter of fact, Fact speaks more louder than words... That`s what is going to happen
definitely? then i will buy as soon as the asian session opens! thank you for confirming forex-jungle-indianlion's factalysis
59 traders viewing now