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Auslanco - GBP/JPY and GBP/USD (newstrade)

  • #146,761
  • Dec 6, 2008 4:06am Dec 6, 2008 4:06am
I dont have a pinbar on the daily
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  • #146,762
  • Edited 4:33am Dec 6, 2008 4:09am | Edited 4:33am
Quoting PipChick
I dont have a pinbar on the daily
see here pipchick

http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...6&d=1228561141

for this "pb" to have any significance, it should have a longer tail.
don't confuse, even tough it has a PB shape this thing is weak like a cardhouse.
  • #146,763
  • Dec 6, 2008 4:11am Dec 6, 2008 4:11am
Quoting Dr.Geppynius
see here pipchick

http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...6&d=1228561141

for this "pb" to have any significane it should have a longer tail.
don't confuse, even tough it has PB shape this thing is weak like a cardhouse.
I agree Dr Geppy
  • #146,764
  • Dec 6, 2008 5:17am Dec 6, 2008 5:17am
the true purpose of the bailout:

http://www.republicbroadcasting.org/...eo&videoID=169
  • #146,765
  • Dec 6, 2008 5:28am Dec 6, 2008 5:28am
Quoting PipChick
UJ bounced off the top of the 4 hr channel.
Hey PipChick. USD/JPY is trading inside a descending 4hr channel. We had 1 close below the LTL @ 92. I made posts if you are reading this thread constantly that i believe USD/JPY isreversing @ the LTL touch, so, i waited for the price to stay below the LTL or crawl back in the channel. Next 4hr bar failed to close below and came back inside the channel and formed an inside bar - that was tradable alone as it was at the nice location and would have gained more then 100 points profit. But as my style is completely line trading so i waited for the price to break the descending TL @ 92.30 and went long. TP1 was @ the descending 4hr TL @ 93.35 that price bounced of right now. Pocketed 101 pip Though i still believe the upper border of the downtrend channel @ around 96-95.50 can be used as a target one the key level @ descending 4hr TL @ 93.35-93.50 breaks. Keeping it simple and precise.

Hope your enjoying the weekend

Cheers!
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  • #146,766
  • Dec 6, 2008 5:54am Dec 6, 2008 5:54am
Quoting belekas
Hey PipChick. USD/JPY is trading inside a descending 4hr channel. We had 1 close below the LTL @ 92. I made posts if you are reading this thread constantly that i believe USD/JPY isreversing @ the LTL touch, so, i waited for the price to stay below the LTL or crawl back in the channel. Next 4hr bar failed to close below and came back inside the channel and formed an inside bar - that was tradable alone as it was at the nice location and would have gained more then 100 points profit. But as my style is completely line trading so i waited for the...

Agreed, Longterm trendline is still downward but I would sell when the PA tested stronger Upper TL. Next week favor with upward move.
  • #146,767
  • Dec 6, 2008 6:08am Dec 6, 2008 6:08am
On my daily chart, I noticed the PA stayed in a 1000 pips channel from the low of 138.00 to the high of 148.00 for almost three weeks before breaking out this week...My understanding that when a support is tested several times and finally breaks it becomes a NEW Resistance

Observation PA:
#1 candle it finally broke the support

#2 candle tested the support again

#3 candle finally made a lower low to confirm the trend is down
and PA tried to retrace back to 138.00 that used to be support is now a RESISTANCE

#4 candle makes another low and PA tried to break the 138.00 area with no success.


My conclusion is that with all the bad news this past week, I don't see the PA pasting the 138 Resistance zone until some STRONG FUNDAMENTALS comes to justify this PA..

IMHO, be the judge of the PA in the past four weeks on the daily chart..

I read some of the elite traders bias is negative and that the PA this friday is only a big setup for a FREEFALL to a NEW LOW unless the government intervention comes out with another BS bailout plan to support the rally..

I believe the sunday PA will be incredible FAST and FURIOUS if any indication that congress don't bailout the big 3...I know in the past ASIA's PA is very conservative..They may not buy into this bailout plan because it doesn't make sense to keep throwing good money to bad money....It is only common sense to see that with this bad economy and record unemployment this Friday we are in DEEP RECESSION.. I believe in tough love...Start all over and rebuild the business is the best plan to improve the infrastructure.. Other business did change their business plan, why can't Big 3...

Consumers are getting more conservative in spending and I don't see how the three failing car dealership can get people to buy new cars in a DEEP Recession...

NO jobs NO money NO business ...

Remember that economical news are lagging and when next month NFP comes out get ready for some SUPER PA.....I made some nice pips at the beginning of the year...I wonder if the PA will repeat itself...

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  • #146,768
  • Dec 6, 2008 6:09am Dec 6, 2008 6:09am
very interesting video
Quoting Dr.Geppynius
the true purpose of the bailout:

http://www.republicbroadcasting.org/...eo&videoID=169
  • #146,769
  • Dec 6, 2008 6:34am Dec 6, 2008 6:34am
Quoting Dr.Geppynius
i dont see a chance for gj to come up higher than 138. if we gap up, this would add to the seriousness and would be the final step of confusion and fraud. you should take the chance to short the sh*t out of that areas!
  • #146,770
  • Dec 6, 2008 6:47am Dec 6, 2008 6:47am
great analysis, as always.
i am already short, opened it at a little bit before friday's close.

Quoting Dr.Geppynius
the fact that we did not drop on friday, and even rallied adds to the heavyness of the upcoming drop. i did not expect the big boys to be that kind of cheeky, but i have to admit, they are a big bunch of thiefts.

this shakeout does not make me think my plan failed, it just adds to the seriousness.

all we saw on friday was just another little news tankage for partial shortcovering and little buying, to produce a final rally and be sure, that everybody has hope.

it is the same scenario as during thanksgiving from my pov. they used a thin traded...
Nihil Sine Deo.
  • #146,771
  • Dec 6, 2008 6:55am Dec 6, 2008 6:55am
thanks everyone for sharing your wonderful analysis.

for people seeing macd divergence in daily chart, i don't think it is matured yet. it is still too far from the 0 line. i know this because i was caught in this for over 3 months thinking the market would drop when we were going up.

don't make the same mistake as i did.
  • #146,772
  • Dec 6, 2008 7:33am Dec 6, 2008 7:33am
The 138 support is now a resistance after several times to break the support...I am firmed that the PA will continue downward at the end of the month...I believe fibs PA will fullfull the FE to 120-121 area before big retracement next year when the new president starts..I could be wrong about the forecast but I made my living using fibs and trendlines... Remember to always look at the higher TF before making an overall decision where the trend is going...It is confirmed by the government that we are in a Global Recession...It will be a slow recovery for the next several years...I know for the short traders the PA may pullback but don't get married to the long positions...The last retracement on the daily chart was short lived from 130.00 to 148.00 area...Now we are in FREEFALL MODE...Fasten your seatbelts...The year is almost over...The bias for GJ is bearish.....

IMHO...It could change direction anytime...This is my plan and I am not saying I am right or wrong...You be the judge...I am living the dream many traders are hoping to achieve and that is financial freedom...It takes time to learn PA and fundamentals...Stay on this FF board and you will learn alot from the top traders...

Good Luck to everyone...

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  • #146,773
  • Dec 6, 2008 7:39am Dec 6, 2008 7:39am
Quoting rgitt05
Stay on this FF board and you will learn alot from the top traders
this is why i love this thread.
  • #146,774
  • Dec 6, 2008 7:41am Dec 6, 2008 7:41am
Quoting rgitt05
The 138 support is now a resistance after several times to break the support...I am firmed that the PA will continue downward at the end of the month...I believe fibs PA will fullfull the FE to 120-121 area before big retracement next year when the new president starts..I could be wrong about the forecast but I made my living using fibs and trendlines... Remember to always look at the higher TF before making an overall decision where the trend is going...It is confirmed by the government that we are in a Global Recession...It will be a slow...
absolutely spot on!

top trader spotted

i'd love to see us melt down on monday. we have some news like unemployment claims coming up on thursday. in case we do not see a drop on monday, this faking range could well be extended to use the news as catalyst, but until monday has passed, i doubt this.
  • #146,775
  • Dec 6, 2008 7:46am Dec 6, 2008 7:46am
Thanks Dr. G and Pkimnyc..It takes a good trader to recognize one...



Quoting Dr.Geppynius
absolutely spot on!

top trader spotted

i'd love to see us melt down on monday. we have some news like unemployment claims coming up on thursday. in case we do not see a drop on monday, this faking range could well be extended to use the news as catalyst, but until monday has passed, i doubt this.
[
  • #146,776
  • Dec 6, 2008 8:00am Dec 6, 2008 8:00am
Quoting malcolmb14
not so sure lilmoe ... check out this daily GBPUSD ... very clear pin bars with a bullish div rsi

Attachment
the fact that we show some "reversal" on GJ and GU only makes my assumptions of the big coming drop on monday and all week next week stronger. double-tops, double-bottoms, head and shoulders, bull/bear flags, are all the other patterns of what is called "history repeating itself". these cannot be found in fundies, they can be found only in the charts;

take a look back at the week that ended on the 3rd of october. we had the EXACT same pattern where chart set themselves up for LONGS before we made 2 major drops, the 1st being 174 and the second being 166. the first drop to 174 took both you and me by surprise that time, i remember that clearly.

here are some charts of GU, UJ and GJ showing some intersting stuff. we have bearish HDs everywhere, those are pretty powerful, especially on the daily chart. i have thought 3 weeks ago that we made some daily TL breakouts, and the targets should've been daily 50emas, but guess what, the daily trendlines might have been drawn incorrectly, and we are still in a descending trendline formation that signals more bearish momentum. CCI has broken out it's bullish divergence pattern on all 3 pairs (GJ, GU, and UJ), with CCI closing below the -100 line.

other than those bearish HDs, cci closing below the -100 line on all 3 pairs alone is enough for me to make a good assumption that the weekly bearish momentum will resume next week with lower lows. the weeklies have been below the -100 line (bearish trend) for a long time. my anticipated correction on the daily level should be over now; no more correction. we resume DOWN.

i usually place FEs when i get a hidden divergence. FE 61.8 is a MUST, and it works 99.9% of the time. FE 100 is reached 70% of the time. GJ HAS to hit 131 (FE 61.8) at the least, so does GU. and guess what, UJ's FE 61.8 is now RESISTANCE UJ is going to FE 100 at 88.3x next week, or the week after. no bullish divergence on UJ daily as of yet, and i don't believe we'll have any before 2 more legs down, with the 1st leg down already started.

charts, GU, GU, and UJ (in order)

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  • #146,777
  • Dec 6, 2008 8:04am Dec 6, 2008 8:04am
I am just a new kid in the block compare YOU guys, but You are absolutely RUGHT..
we are getting free studies and we should thanks to FF, that we have this opportunities.
I am on that side, but like I wrote, Friday was strange for me..
thanks for analyses


[quote=rgitt05;2400919]The 138 support is now a resistance after several times to break the support...I am firmed that the PA will continue downward at the end of the month...I believe fibs PA will fullfull the FE to 120-121 area before big retracement next year when the new president starts..I could be wrong about the forecast but I made my living using fibs and trendlines... Remember to always look at the higher TF before making an overall decision where the trend is going...It is confirmed by the government that we are in a Global Recession...It will be a slow recovery for the next several years...I
  • #146,778
  • Edited 8:26am Dec 6, 2008 8:11am | Edited 8:26am
Quoting capetown
I am just a new kid in the block compare YOU guys, but You are absolutely RUGHT..
we are getting free studies and we should thanks to FF, that we have this opportunities.
I am on that side, but like I wrote, Friday was strange for me..
thanks for analyses

cape, it only was strange because you have put any weight into fundies i suppose.
the fundies are just randon #s, just how the financial elite needs them to fit into their plan. if the markets drop on worse nfp numbers it was sure, if it does not drop, the bad numbers were already priced in, thats the explanation you get by the news. but the truth is just the fact, that the markets are big playgrounds and market news spread by the regular companies and tv stations have nothing to do with neutral pov. the news are just a neccessary tool of the financial sharks and as soon as you are able to get rid of letting them influence you and think of "how can they use the news to fool me?" you are on the right side.

just keep an eye on mondays news regarding dow. i can tell you now that dow will open lower as it closed friday. the positions have already been taken friday and the news will develop a story for thath to explain the speculative games which are played and have absolutely nothing to do with real world demand.

just keep eyes open and you will realize that some time during 2009/2010/2011 who knows, the news will be so bad and market begins to bottom, setup for a bull market when the news cannot be worse and the uninformed masses keep shorting the bottom straight into the bags of big money players who collect.
best example is oil, coming off when even everybody in the streets knew we will see 200$ a barrel, that'S when longcovering takes place and the idiotmoney buys at that levels whilst big players which are longg off of the doubledigit area begin to dump their positions.
  • #146,779
  • Dec 6, 2008 8:12am Dec 6, 2008 8:12am
Excellent Analyst...This is the reason why I love this board..Elite traders like yourself always back your arguement with charts and reasoning...

We can't always be right but at least a chart with explantions to support your POV helps the newbies and incorrect calls on this board..


Awesome...

I always look at the Higher TF for overall direction..




Quoting lilmoe
the fact that we show some "reversal" on GJ and GU only makes my assumptions of the big coming drop on monday and all week next week stronger. double-tops, double-bottoms, head and shoulders, bull/bear flags, are all the other patterns of what is called "history repeating itself". these cannot be found in fundies, they can be found only in the charts;

take a look back at the week that ended on the 3rd of october. we had the EXACT same pattern where chart set themselves up for LONGS before we made 2 major drops, the 1st being 174 and the second...
[
  • #146,780
  • Dec 6, 2008 8:14am Dec 6, 2008 8:14am
Quoting Dr.Geppynius
cape, it only was strange because you have put any weight into fundies i suppose.
the fundies are just randon #s, just how the financial elite needs them to fit into their plan. if the markets drops on worse nfp numbers it was sure, if it does not drop, the bad numbers were already priced in, thats the explanation you get by the news. but the truth is just the fact, that the markets are big playgrounds and market news spread by the regular companies and tv stations have nothing to do with neutral pov. the news are just a neccessary toll of the financial...
couldn't agree more...
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