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  • #6,661
  • Dec 4, 2008 10:36am Dec 4, 2008 10:36am
Quoting linalm
Hi Guerrillawar,

Would you mind sharing how you analyzed price when it reached your target entry level, that you could successfully conclude that a reversal was in place and, therefore, a short was a high probability trade?

I, myself, tried to short the pair and got burned in two attempts.

Thank you. Best regards,

linalm
i based the stall on a 30 m inside bar at the key fib level. this is why i prefer hlc chart over candles
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  • #6,662
  • Dec 4, 2008 10:49am Dec 4, 2008 10:49am
Quoting Guerrillawar
i based the stall on a 30 m inside bar at the key fib level. this is why i prefer hlc chart over candles
I understand what I am seeing but can you clarify 'inside bar'?

Thanks GW.
  • #6,663
  • Dec 4, 2008 10:57am Dec 4, 2008 10:57am
Hi Folks
How are you all? I would like to request your input in this regard.......USD/JPY was in a very narrow range from Tuesday........ Does that mean it could have the biggest range for tomorrow? Are you guys bearish on USD/JPY still?
Thanking you all
Happy piping
BANDA333
  • #6,664
  • Dec 4, 2008 10:59am Dec 4, 2008 10:59am
Quoting Guerrillawar
i based the stall on a 30 m inside bar at the key fib level. this is why i prefer hlc chart over candles
Thank you for the reply. Much appreciated.
  • #6,665
  • Dec 4, 2008 11:37am Dec 4, 2008 11:37am
Quoting BANDA
Hi Folks
How are you all? I would like to request your input in this regard.......USD/JPY was in a very narrow range from Tuesday........ Does that mean it could have the biggest range for tomorrow? Are you guys bearish on USD/JPY still?
Thanking you all
Happy piping
It could have a big range, but it's a friday so it's hard to say. Low volume can mean high volatility, could just as easily mean very low volatility too.

Personally my bias is to the upside on the USDJPY. It's quite oversold.
  • #6,666
  • Dec 4, 2008 11:53am Dec 4, 2008 11:53am
Hi smittens4212
Many thanks for the input. I always learn from your calls as well as other BRV bunch. Thank you




Quoting smittens4212
It could have a big range, but it's a friday so it's hard to say. Low volume can mean high volatility, could just as easily mean very low volatility too.

Personally my bias is to the upside on the USDJPY. It's quite oversold.
BANDA333
  • #6,667
  • Dec 4, 2008 12:10pm Dec 4, 2008 12:10pm
Quoting BANDA
Hi Folks
How are you all? I would like to request your input in this regard.......USD/JPY was in a very narrow range from Tuesday........ Does that mean it could have the biggest range for tomorrow? Are you guys bearish on USD/JPY still?
Thanking you all
Happy piping
It's heading into open water in terms of s/r, if it breaks 9200 it could fall all the way to 9090.
  • #6,668
  • Dec 4, 2008 12:32pm Dec 4, 2008 12:32pm
What Do U Say Abuot It?

U R Comment R Wellcom
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  • #6,669
  • Dec 4, 2008 12:41pm Dec 4, 2008 12:41pm
Quoting RedCabbage
It's heading into open water in terms of s/r, if it breaks 9200 it could fall all the way to 9090.
Could be breaking out right now. Equities are getting smoked, could be in for a ride.
  • #6,670
  • Dec 4, 2008 1:00pm Dec 4, 2008 1:00pm
Quoting smittens4212
Could be breaking out right now. Equities are getting smoked, could be in for a ride.

GW and RC,

fantastic call about taking profits @ 1.2750
Just had to point that out.
Thank you Malcolm, Belekas, Jim, raczekfx and Ryanmcd !
  • #6,671
  • Dec 4, 2008 1:06pm Dec 4, 2008 1:06pm
Hi RedCabbage

How are you? Thank you very much for the input.......good point you eluded to I was planing going long again around 92 I will watch for some consolidation or a wick to substantiate the decision.
Thank you very much


Quoting RedCabbage
It's heading into open water in terms of s/r, if it breaks 9200 it could fall all the way to 9090.
BANDA333
  • #6,672
  • Edited 3:23pm Dec 4, 2008 3:09pm | Edited 3:23pm
Quoting BANDA
Hi RedCabbage

How are you? Thank you very much for the input.......good point you eluded to I was planing going long again around 92 I will watch for some consolidation or a wick to substantiate the decision.
Thank you very much
As smittens says it is certainly oversold but is finding support on a 4H TL for now. I will be looking to see if it breaches the TL, the psycological 9200 and the support at 9189 hopefully then we could see a run to 9090 and a retrace? That would be ideal.

Your input is welcome!

Edited to add:- The 4H TL support is strong so it's on a bit of a rally @23:22GMT I'll see what it is doing in the morning.
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  • #6,673
  • Dec 4, 2008 3:15pm Dec 4, 2008 3:15pm
Quoting FX fuel
What Do U Say Abuot It?

U R Comment R Wellcom

You are definitely in the right area, Guerillawar hit the nail on the head with a safe 12750 but that was an exit point from a sell.
  • #6,674
  • Dec 4, 2008 4:27pm Dec 4, 2008 4:27pm
The bar's hi and low are within(inside) the previous bar's hi and low.


KC

Quoting RedCabbage
I understand what I am seeing but can you clarify 'inside bar'?

Thanks GW.
  • #6,675
  • Dec 4, 2008 11:51pm Dec 4, 2008 11:51pm
Quoting kc8flq
The bar's hi and low are within(inside) the previous bar's hi and low.


KC
Thanks for the clarification. How often is this seen?
  • #6,676
  • Edited 12:41am Dec 5, 2008 12:09am | Edited 12:41am
Quoting RedCabbage
Thanks for the clarification. How often is this seen?
Hey RC. Once again hope nobody minds me chiming in, just trying to help out. Inside Bars can be seen more often on lower time frames, less on higher time frames. As with most analysis, generally hold more value on the higher timeframes. They can show indecision in the market/price action and thus after an inside bar the market is likely to move swiftly in one direction. I have an indicator that helps identify inside bars (purple squares). This is a 15M chart of EUR/USD and I put the red arrows in areas where playing the inside bar would have been a very good trade. I pay attention to inside bars but obviously don't enter a trade soley on them, just another tool.

EDIT: Inside Bar indicator has been attached. When you load it you will see it has both inside bar and pin bar, change pin bar to false. It only seems to work with inside bar.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Attached File(s)
File Type: ex4 PinI4Bbar AHA 0.1.ex4   9 KB | 519 downloads
  • #6,677
  • Dec 5, 2008 12:31am Dec 5, 2008 12:31am
Quoting libb
Hey RC. Once again hope nobody minds me chiming in, just trying to help out. Inside Bars can be seen more often on lower time frames, less on higher time frames. As with most analysis, generally hold more value on the higher timeframes. They can show indecision in the market/price action and thus after an inside bar the market is likely to move swiftly in one direction. I have an indicator that helps identify inside bars (purple squares). This is a 15M chart of EUR/USD and I put the red arrows in areas where playing the inside bar would have been...
The calm before the storm a bit like a pennant.

Thanks Libb that's very helpful, I must expand my reading list again. I've had a quick look around and there are plenty of inside bars on yesterdays moves. Like you say combined with s/r it can be indicative.
  • #6,678
  • Dec 5, 2008 12:35am Dec 5, 2008 12:35am
Quoting libb
Hey RC. Once again hope nobody minds me chiming in, just trying to help out. Inside Bars can be seen more often on lower time frames, less on higher time frames. As with most analysis, generally hold more value on the higher timeframes. They can show indecision in the market/price action and thus after an inside bar the market is likely to move swiftly in one direction. I have an indicator that helps identify inside bars (purple squares). This is a 15M chart of EUR/USD and I put the red arrows in areas where playing the inside bar would have been...
Hey, Libb

I would like to hear your take on inside bars? How do you use inside bars? I really like them a lot. They are a multifaceted tool that offer a lot of benefits. They are a cornerstone to a lot of professional quantitative systems out there. In the professional world the quant systems being implemented are not like the ones being used by people on these forums. Red line over green line, cci above this, rsi below that, macd sloping this direction. All of those systems are real hit and miss. The ultimate advantage of an inside bar is not even in the realm of entry in my opinion its for putting a real tight leash on your risk.
  • #6,679
  • Dec 5, 2008 12:41am Dec 5, 2008 12:41am
Quoting Guerrillawar
Hey, Libb

I would like to hear your take on inside bars? How do you use inside bars? I really like them a lot. They are a multifaceted tool that offer a lot of benefits. They are a cornerstone to a lot of professional quantitative systems out there. In the professional world the quant systems being implemented are not like the ones being used by people on these forums. Red line over green line, cci above this, rsi below that, macd sloping this direction. All of those systems are real hit and miss. The ultimate advantage of an inside bar is not...
First impressions to me suggest it will be most useful for pinpointing an entry and reducing risk, thanks for bringing this up GW.
  • #6,680
  • Dec 5, 2008 12:44am Dec 5, 2008 12:44am
I knew we were in volatile times but this fact really does bring it home

"The number of days that the S&P 500 has moved up or down by more than 5% during the Trading Day...
1950 - 2006: 34 days...
2008 : 44 days! With 22 of them coming since October 1st!

Talk about volatile! WOW! "

A bit off topic but thought it might be of interest.
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