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Fibonacci Trading with Bobokus

  • #7,081
  • Dec 5, 2008 12:00am Dec 5, 2008 12:00am
Quoting Shermenator
its just the abilty of the trader to know how to use it as long as it does not cause confusion....some will get it and some wont
thats why they say KISS
  • #7,082
  • Edited 1:00am Dec 5, 2008 12:46am | Edited 1:00am
Sherm,
Am on it as u are,waiting for my 60 pips and run with some profit.
Thanks
  • #7,083
  • Dec 5, 2008 2:14am Dec 5, 2008 2:14am
Hope you guys took the trade mentioned earlier today in the gbpusd...
Thanks Bo for teaching me so much and making me as good as I am...

Remember longs are scalps...so grab and run when its correct...

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  • #7,084
  • Dec 5, 2008 2:14am Dec 5, 2008 2:14am
information overload
  • #7,085
  • Edited 3:27am Dec 5, 2008 3:15am | Edited 3:27am
Hope you guys took some profits on the long I gave earlier and happy pipping...thanks for everything Bo...

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  • #7,086
  • Dec 5, 2008 3:31am Dec 5, 2008 3:31am
great trade guys, the fibs told the whole story.....
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  • #7,087
  • Dec 5, 2008 3:34am Dec 5, 2008 3:34am
Quoting islandtrader
great trade guys, the fibs told the whole story.....
I like how you place your fibbs bud, we think alike...lol
  • #7,088
  • Dec 5, 2008 4:50am Dec 5, 2008 4:50am
Alright guys made 45 pips with 90 percent of the trade about about to get stopped out with my remainder 10 percent of trade....does not matter its a good winning trade....still holding my short from last thursday from the daily chart....
  • #7,089
  • Dec 5, 2008 5:02am Dec 5, 2008 5:02am
well done Sherm, I see your exit on your 4hr trade was to the pip.... good choice of limit....
  • #7,090
  • Dec 5, 2008 5:12am Dec 5, 2008 5:12am
Quoting islandtrader
well done Sherm, I see your exit on your 4hr trade was to the pip.... good choice of limit....
Just trying to trade like the Pro like BOBOKUS lol
  • #7,091
  • Dec 5, 2008 5:40am Dec 5, 2008 5:40am
Quoting boyeros
COULD YOU PLEASE LET KNOW WITH ONE OF ME TRENDLINES ARE WRONG.

They just mean to look at your trendlines from a higher timeframe, just like with anything the accuracy will be greater. From the 1 hour and using candles during this asian session or any time the market is moving sideways you will get false breaks of them.
  • #7,092
  • Dec 5, 2008 6:23am Dec 5, 2008 6:23am
Alright if you take a look at the gbpusd ...from the 1 hour chart perspective you can see that market is causing a constant battle between the swing fibb and the intraday levels...what this is showing you is true indecesion in the market meaning that this can be time to simply watch if your in no trade or zoom out and pull the trigger from a higer timefrmae to avoid some noise...

If you guys whant me to look at any pair I will more then glad to do so...

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  • #7,093
  • Dec 5, 2008 6:50am Dec 5, 2008 6:50am
Alright her is my view in the eurusd starting from the daily chart ...I will split this into more then 1 post....

First chart I have is the daily chart....what we see from here is a massive indecesion since we can see that price is dancing between a short condition and long condtion ( Green Fibb ) what this tell us is that the market is waiting for new sentiment to be added to the market to drive in a new direction or continue in the downside. Second what we see from this chart is that the market is in a scalping condition since the market makers are not holding the trades and they are scalping.What we also see here is that the market is widening since the market is not consistent in direction by trading either higher or lower...meaning this is a series of time that trading the smaller time frame such as 4 hour and 1 hour is risky and this is why I simply ignore the waves taking place in the smaller timeframes today. And rather miss somewaves since the market is not showing me what I whant....you have to shoot in the forex with a sniper and not with a shootgun....in the next post I will show the 4 hour ....

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  • #7,094
  • Dec 5, 2008 6:57am Dec 5, 2008 6:57am
Good choice, the Euro is tesing support levels from yesterdyas movement now, and if you look at the last swing that met the Intraday Long level resistance from that retracement initially held and price retraces deeper into the Intraday levels, also the target range of the swing.
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  • #7,095
  • Dec 5, 2008 7:03am Dec 5, 2008 7:03am
Quoting Bobokus
Good choice, the Euro is tesing support levels from yesterdyas movement now, and if you look at the last swing that met the Intraday Long level resistance from that retracement initially held and price retraces deeper into the Intraday levels, also the target range of the swing.
So are we watching for long here? or wait on the sidelines becaues the 4hr is sideways?
  • #7,096
  • Dec 5, 2008 7:07am Dec 5, 2008 7:07am
Also guys remeber today is friday so dont try and force any trades as well as we have nonfarm and unemployment rate coming out. So remember its better to miss a good trade then being in a bad one.
  • #7,097
  • Dec 5, 2008 7:07am Dec 5, 2008 7:07am
Quoting big_pipin
So are we watching for long here? or wait on the sidelines becaues the 4hr is sideways?

Just remember that its friday and there is unemployment report coming out. After the dust settles there may be a sclping opportunity's since its a short day and the end of the week.
  • #7,098
  • Dec 5, 2008 7:35am Dec 5, 2008 7:35am
NFP worst than expected.
Let's see if this trigger a direction for the mkt?
  • #7,099
  • Dec 5, 2008 7:43am Dec 5, 2008 7:43am
I am at a turning point in my career and after alot of hard work I am exploring that opportunity with my own website. Bobokus .com. Out of respect of the admin here at Forex Factory and the rules of the forums I must depart. I contacted the Admin here at Forex Factory and wanted them to know ahead of time of my plans and did not want to cause a rift here on Forex Factory rather leave on a positive note as I have seen too often those that would use Forex Factory to prey on new traders and did not want to be in that same category.
I fully understand their reasoning and the rules. And on that note I would like to leave one last bit of information and encouragement. I wish everyone here the best in their trading and thank FF for a wonderful place for new traders.

The Web of The World Wide Web

The age of easy access to information now seems to have a negative flip side. The same easy access that can sometimes seem like a godsend, also allows a pile-on of bad information or content of little value which can lead you astray. Many older traders did not have to go through this as they were mentored by another successful trader or forced to learn through long tiresome study of charts and the live market. The common path for an aspiring trader these days is to pop open their web browser and begin searching for information to apply immediately in their live account. The problem is that their search often leads them to destinations which are infected by viruses of bad ideas, negativity, indicator obsession, and other road blocks to lead the knowledge seeker off their path. Even many of the books sold these days are filled with recycled concepts or hacked together strategies which the authors do not even use. The problem with this new found easy access to information, at least when it comes to the trading profession, is that trading remains a discretionary field, their is no clear path to success.The problem with this new found easy access to information, at least when it comes to the trading profession, is that trading remains a discretionary field, their is no clear path to success. There is no series of text books and exams that will graduate you as a trader. The same easy access to information that may be a godsend for other fields of study, can be a curse in our profession and might even make it harder to achieve success than it was 20 years ago. Add to this the continual barrage of sites with guru's who fuel the idea that trading is easy, then financially feed off those same people they have sold this idea to. At the end of the day what many of them offer is a gross misrepresentation of what it takes to trade for a living. Trading is far from easy. You know you have become a good trader when your are trading with profitably with ease, but that does not mean it is easy. At a certain point you will be at a stage where you are calm and at ease when entering and exiting trades, but the reality is it is still hard work and must be treated as a career.

The effect of much of the bad information you come across is that it leads many traders start off overly optimistic. Now don't get me wrong, having a positive attitude and being optimistic is a great thing, but not when the foundation for your optimism was built to crumble. Would-be new traders start by jumping right in to the live market after getting a hold of some set of indicators or "secret" set of moving averages and they are quickly punished for their naivety. Being led astray is not the fault of a new trader, In fact many now successful traders went through this learning process. It only becomes your fault if you continue to allow yourself to be led astray. A break from this cycle, and your first step back on the road to success, comes when you realize that the majority of those piling on this information will not help you nearly as much as you can help yourself. You help yourself by beginning to think for yourself and accepting the reality that you cannot just decide to "Be" a trader, rather you have to decide to "BECOME" a trader.


BECOME A Trader
The faster a new trader can make the mental shift to "I am going to become a trader" the faster they will get to the goal line where you can say "I am a trader."



To be a trader is easy, all you need is an account with money in it then you enter the market and start trading. To become a trader is more work. Becoming a trader involves you going through an evolution from the starting point of little knowledge to the point of having a tradeable framework, knowledge of the behavior of the market you trade, and a cool head while taking wins and losses. To Become a trader you must:

Begin With Humility

Emphasize Equity Management

Create Your Market Lens

Operate Like a Surgeoun

Maintain Your Mind

Expect The Unexpected

BEGIN WITH HUMILITY
This is very important when you are starting your trading career. You must come to terms with the fact that you are a small fish in a big ocean. The big fish will happily enjoy you as a little snack. When you enter the Forex market most of the liquidity is coming from big banks and experienced traders. Don't for a second start off by thinking that it will be easy to take these big traders money out of the market. What you have to learn is to swim along side the big fish, catch the same currents they do, don't swim against them or they will eat you up in passing.

A funny misconception is that these big traders must have access to some holy grail strategy or use some secret indicator, but this is plain and simply not true. Online you can find access to daily bank analyst reports on currencies. Analysts at the biggest banks in the world generate these reports which are then sent off to their trade desks for the bank's traders to consider. In these reports you will find simple, but proven technical analysis techniques - most commonly horizontal support/resistance, identification of trading ranges, Fibonacci, and fundamental themes. Begin by accepting that the other participants are highly experienced in the market and then learn to trade like them. They make money because of experience, not because they hold a holy grail or secret indicators.

EMPHASIZE EQUITY MANAGEMENT
It is crucial that as a beginning trader your emphasis is not on how much you can make, but rather how you can properly manage what you have. This is most likely to be the downfall of traders. It would be common place to see a starting trader risk their entire account on one or two positions. This is not the way to a sustainable trading career and this is not how the professional traders you are up against in the market manage their risk. At some point in your trading career you will likely have a string of bad trades. A reasonable number might be 10 losing trades in a row. Are you managing your equity in a way that you can survive this?

The solution is using simple formulas to calculate your maximum risk per trade and total risk in the market at any one time. Doing this is not difficult, but you must have the discipline to follow through with it on each and every trade.

CREATE YOUR MARKET LENS
Many fail to realize that when you open your charting software and pop on the latest hot indicator or charting tool you've heard works so well, you are extremely unlikely to see much success from it. This is because an indicator on a chart does not provide you with a market lens to trade from. Your market lens comes from experience. It comes from knowing how the market behaves around your chosen framework.

There are many traders that are profitable with various indicators or tools such as fibs, pivots, price channels, MACD, etc. But the tools they have chosen are not what is making them profitable. A common theme between successful traders is that they have the experience of seeing how the market behaves around their chosen tools and framework, day in and day out. The only way to achieve this is to stop jumping between tools and select those that are based on logical reasoning, understand how they work, then spend time in the market experiencing them.

OPERATE LIKE A SURGEON
It should be your goal to take your pips out of the market with precision, the same precision a surgeon must use with his scalpel. Traders who don't treat each trade as a business decision by calculating their risk and defining entries and exits, open themselves to big losses when a trade goes bad.

Once again it is a novel concept which you will hear again and again, but for some reason it is difficult for many traders to exercise the discipline to follow a plan for each trade. Instead what often happens is what I call the "Lazyboy Trade." The trader sees a potential set-up, Decides on some arbitrary sum to buy with a quick guesstimate, then carelessly gets in the trade without analyzing risk and having an exit strategy. The Lazyboy Trade may work out a few times solely because of luck, but eventually the trader wakes up from a nap to find themselves under water in a position and that's the end of their trading career. Now there's nothing wrong with trading from your Lazyboy, but be sure you never partake in the Lazy Boy trade and you must exercise discipline each day to keep your account healthy.

MAINTAIN YOUR MIND
Entire books have been dedicated to the subject of psychology and its role in trading. That doesn't mean they are all going to help you, but you should take this as a sign that the subject is not to be ignored. Like a professional athlete must maintain their fitness at a level that allows them to compete at the top, we must maintain our mind because it is relied on each and every day to trade at the top of your game.

This comes down to a few things. First you must understand the role psychology plays in trading. Second you must make it your aim to never stop learning. You cannot get yourself to a certain level and then become complacent. Your entire career in this industry will be a learning experience. Until the day you stop trading you must be prepared to learn lessons from the market and be willing to do R&D and testing of newly gained knowledge, just as a business would Invest in R&D.

EXPECT THE UNEXPECTED
I'm writing this at the end of 2008 which has been quite a wild year in the markets. We've seen bank runs followed by bail-outs, brokerage bankruptcy's, government intervention in free markets, housing bubbles exploding, and a global deleveraging of the financial system of historical proportions. At the beginning of the crash it seemed like every other week the market was being saved by rumors of Warren Buffet buying out struggling companies. Now we see pundits questioning the savvy of the oracle himself as he loses large sums on the same derivatives he once criticized as a bad idea and sees his prized AAA credit rating for Berkshire being threatened. Did anyone expect to see that?

These are indeed interesting times, but there is one thing every investor needs to learn. Expect the unexpected and do not get wrapped up in the euphoria of those around you. There will always be bubbles, crashes and threats to your profitability, but as long as you maintain and objective outlook and think for yourself you will have a feast when there is famine for those who are caught up in the hype.


Allow Yourself To Succeed
By putting in the effort to BECOME a trader you allow yourself the opportunity to one day evolve from saying "I am going to become" a trader to "I am a trader." And that is the ultimate reward.

To say "I am a trader" is a great privilege and achievement, it means you have done something that around 95% of those who tried could not. Congratulations to those who can make this statement and for those just beginning this journey start your evolution by allowing yourself to BECOME a trader.

Good Luck to all,
Jeff
  • #7,100
  • Edited 10:50am Dec 5, 2008 10:30am | Edited 10:50am
Quoting Bobokus
I am at a turning point in my career and after alot of hard work I am exploring that opportunity with my own website. Bobokus .com. Out of respect of the admin here at Forex Factory and the rules of the forums I must depart. I contacted the Admin here at Forex Factory and wanted them to know ahead of time of my plans and did not want to cause a rift here on Forex Factory rather leave on a positive note as I have seen too often those that would use Forex Factory to prey on new traders and did not want to be in that same category.
[font=Georgia]I...
Jeff, what you have taught me and I'm sure many others, has been invaluable. I'm forever in your debt and it's sad you must depart but I fully understand, and it's best to follow the rules as to not have this thread go through the like's of some others. I respect your decision as we must all continue to move forward (hopefully onto new and better things) which is what I'm sure you are embarking on.

Thanks for everything and I wish you the very best of success...


Oh, I almost forgot that I was going to post a simple indicator that might help some folks find where to plot their Intraday fibs easier/faster. I hope it helps some of you...
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