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Attachments: 7am-9am Big Dog USD Breakout Strategy
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7am-9am Big Dog USD Breakout Strategy

  • #961
  • Dec 4, 2008 6:14am Dec 4, 2008 6:14am
Can you US guys confirm that Big -Dog time has just commenced?
9.13 am us time
  • #962
  • Dec 4, 2008 6:25am Dec 4, 2008 6:25am
Quoting thedave
Can you US guys confirm that Big -Dog time has just commenced?
9.13 am us time
It has started since 9:15AM EST. It's range bound right now, not moving anywhere.
  • #963
  • Dec 4, 2008 7:14am Dec 4, 2008 7:14am
i have loss -50p it is my first stop in this system. I hope it will be not often. My enter was 1.4683 gbp/usd
  • #964
  • Dec 4, 2008 7:24am Dec 4, 2008 7:24am
Quoting dkv023
i have loss -50p it is my first stop in this system. I hope it will be not often. My enter was 1.4683 gbp/usd
thats strange, on my broker this pair didnt reached that level 1,4683....
but on the eu it was nice today 30 easy pip on that one..
  • #965
  • Edited 7:49am Dec 4, 2008 7:30am | Edited 7:49am
Quoting CTGUY
This looks great... can you go into more detail how you trade this system my friend?

Thanks immensely!
First off I'm no expert on the ACD method. I have read the book a long time ago and I have just taken bits and pieces from it. However, I plan on reading it ASAP to sharpen my skills after I found this thread and ignited my enthusiasm for the ORB tactic.

The main idea of the ACD is that the trading doesn't end with just the breakout. He uses the ORB as kind of a pivot point system. Rather than calculating pivots points the ranges of the ORB are the pivots. So by doing this a few more trades become possible. You can get in on the retracement to the ORB if it looks like the move to that level lacks vigor. You can also go countertrend versus the ORB and expect to backfill to the ORB boundary. You can also fade the ORB if the retracement to it doesn't find support.

For example here is a trade I took. First I played the ORB in the Euro. Long at 1.2660 got out a tad soon at 1.2775. I had noticed that this breakout isn't natural since several correlated markets are barely breaking or didn't break at all. This allows me to go against the ORB trend. I shorted at resistance 1.2697. I was expecting to backfill 1.2658 or so. But I closed early around 1.2672 when the taped started getting real fast indciacting to me there is demand. So this method starts with a qunatative or systematic reference point that releases information so that you can trade from more than one angle.
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  • #966
  • Dec 4, 2008 7:40am Dec 4, 2008 7:40am
Quoting dkv023
i have loss -50p it is my first stop in this system. I hope it will be not often. My enter was 1.4683 gbp/usd
That stop could have been avoided had you been familiar with Mark Fishers book. Firstly, you did nothing wrong systematically there was an entry triggered there. However, you could of done a few things today because this was a unique situation.

That breakout required a large stretch. It was testing major resistance in the form of the London ORB boundary. This is a very dangerous place to be a buyer you are better off being a seller.

It all depends on how systematic you wish to be. Its my opinion that no system should be applied in all circumstances skillful discretion is a necessity. This may or may not harm results thats to be decided by good backtesting. But its common sense don't sell into resistance unless its decesively broken.
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  • #967
  • Dec 4, 2008 7:50am Dec 4, 2008 7:50am
my bull order was not triggered.
  • #968
  • Dec 4, 2008 8:01am Dec 4, 2008 8:01am
I took a 30 pip loss this morning but I blame myself, not the system. I knew, I KNEW, there might be some resistance at the middle-upper 1.467* range and took the trade anyway. I was looking at the big drop the price took during the 8:00 hour on the 1H chart and I thought to myself that if the price comes back up it may just fill that gap and then hit a little resistance.

Oh well, one little miss isn't going to keep me from continuing to trade this sytem. Sometimes you have to throw a few pips back to the trading gods to keep them happy......
  • #969
  • Dec 4, 2008 8:38am Dec 4, 2008 8:38am
So far so good.I am risking 1 for 2. My TP is twice the size of the box.
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  • #970
  • Dec 4, 2008 9:12am Dec 4, 2008 9:12am
question: how correctly put orders on breakout higth and low, it is must be buy order spread+5p sell stop spread+2p ?? Today my higth was 1.4678 my buy stop was 1.4683 , spread 3p. I think i did not correct put my order buy stop
  • #971
  • Dec 4, 2008 10:40am Dec 4, 2008 10:40am
Quoting Fx_Pipin
So far so good.I am risking 1 for 2. My TP is twice the size of the box.
Correct TF is 15m, your chart shows 1h.
"To Be A Successful Forex Trader, You Need A Successful Forex Mentor."
  • #972
  • Dec 4, 2008 11:25am Dec 4, 2008 11:25am
I am using Generic Breakout v4 to back test this baby with 70TP, 100SL, 3% money management.
so far in 2000 this system would have lost 25% and it is in march of 2001 and so far down -10%.
i have been trading this system and since october it has been great.
do you guys think the back testing is wrong? or do you think that i have something wrong in the parameters? has someone done the backtesting to verify my result for 2000?

thank you guys,
  • #973
  • Dec 4, 2008 11:27am Dec 4, 2008 11:27am
Quoting MrCampbell
I am using Generic Breakout v4 to back test this baby with 70TP, 100SL, 3% money management.
so far in 2000 this system would have lost 25% and it is in march of 2001 and so far down -10%.
i have been trading this system and since october it has been great.
do you guys think the back testing is wrong? or do you think that i have something wrong in the parameters? has someone done the backtesting to verify my result for 2000?

thank you guys,

iyad
What was your modeling quality?
  • #974
  • Dec 4, 2008 11:33am Dec 4, 2008 11:33am
it is not even done since i am doing 2000 to 2007

Have you Ronald backtest with different parameters? or do you know what might be the problem?
  • #975
  • Dec 4, 2008 11:55am Dec 4, 2008 11:55am
Quoting MrCampbell
it is not even done since i am doing 2000 to 2007

Have you Ronald backtest with different parameters? or do you know what might be the problem?

If you are using a static 70 pip exit you will get murdered using this system. Up until recent 70 pips was a large percentage of daily ATR. Fiddle around with exits based on percentages of ATR. If you want such a large exit you will need to cut you trade frequency drastically read Tony Crabels book if you want to take that route. The bottom line is this is a real good system but you need to move fast with it. You can't sit around every entry and expect to take away 70 pips.
  • #976
  • Dec 4, 2008 12:00pm Dec 4, 2008 12:00pm
Quoting MrCampbell
it is not even done since i am doing 2000 to 2007

Have you Ronald backtest with different parameters? or do you know what might be the problem?
I programmed that EA. It works with what was listed on the first page. Many of the parameters there aren't needed.
  • #977
  • Dec 4, 2008 12:03pm Dec 4, 2008 12:03pm
Thank you.

Where could I get this book or PDF? I find your point interesting regarding ATR. Do you recommend a TP of 0.5 ATR? or what percentage? also i don't think the genericx breakout v4 is programmed to test this, is it?

Thank you so much

MrC
  • #978
  • Dec 4, 2008 12:51pm Dec 4, 2008 12:51pm
Quoting dkv023
question: how correctly put orders on breakout higth and low, it is must be buy order spread+5p sell stop spread+2p ?? Today my higth was 1.4678 my buy stop was 1.4683 , spread 3p. I think i did not correct put my order buy stop
who can help me? How to use orders?
  • #979
  • Dec 4, 2008 7:11pm Dec 4, 2008 7:11pm
i am still testing so far i found that no stop loss, nor take profit BUT a 30 pip trailing stop is the best, BUT i need someone to verify this for me since it has not LOST a single time in 2007.

imagine we have the holy grail....
  • #980
  • Dec 4, 2008 8:17pm Dec 4, 2008 8:17pm
Quoting MrCampbell
i am still testing so far i found that no stop loss, nor take profit BUT a 30 pip trailing stop is the best, BUT i need someone to verify this for me since it has not LOST a single time in 2007.

imagine we have the holy grail....
there is no holy grail system.

backtesting is worthless, you need to watch out for big news days like NFP, etc.

Also any and every system will have losses, you need to accept losses as part of the game. Yes losses hurt but you must be prepared for them. I read somewhere that before newbies go into a trade they ask themselves how much can they make on this trade? whereas more experienced traders before they even enter a trade ask themselves, how much can I lose on this trade? Am I OK with such a loss?

Money Management, Risk Management, and discipline (don't overtrade) are some key factors that help you turn almost any system into a profitable one.
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