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  • #6,641
  • Dec 4, 2008 3:47am Dec 4, 2008 3:47am
Quoting RedCabbage
UK House Price Index was -2% vs. expected -1% and as Cable took a dive the EUR came down in sympathy.
It could have been that. But I think its more likely it was technical driven. Here was a breakout that BRV has been talking about that worked really well this time. It was break of yesterdays low in cable with serious vigor. Since euro was moving in line with cable that may have caused euro to target yesterdays low as well. Lows from yesterday in the euro got smoked which caused a stop run. Thats the general idea behind breakout theory to trigger the stops. This was a case where that happend in a text book manner. This is a reason why break-outs can't be totally disregarded. I sure hope BRV can help us figure out how to filter out the good from the bad. However, I'm not really sure such a solution even exsists.
  • #6,642
  • Dec 4, 2008 3:50am Dec 4, 2008 3:50am
Quoting RedCabbage
.............
I think this thread can get quiet because people are frightened of making a fool of themselves and/or stating the obvious.

The obvious is what this strategy is all about and we need it pointing out all the time.

Thanks for raising the question of the 6065 breakout libb, discussion on here is like thinking out loud, it helps clarify things.
Great post RC...
And no harm in what you are seeing..
It is a bigger pleasure to read 5 or six posts a day on this thread written by guys who've got their heads screwed on, and trading and making real money, day in day out..than ALL the BS that permiates so many of the threads not only here on FF but on almost ALL public forums. No Holy Grails.. No Automated "get rich quick" solutions,, no..how do I load an EA in MT4 BS...no blue line crossing red line and histo over 50% . enter on the third whisker on a mouses ass BS...and thankfully very little.." gosh you are wonderful BRV.." smoke blowing...(if you want to say thanks.. send the guy a PM.. dont clog up the thread..)

Speaking personally...You guys ...BRV, Ironman, RC GW Libb Smittens Aldy Tori and ALL Ive not room to mention etc etc.. are a pleasure to read and "have advice from".. ..So if anyone is intimidated.. BE INTIMIDATED..
for the most part..I think your talking here with some of the 5%....

Rant Over.
Jeez I feel better!!!! LoL... I guess Im barred now..? LoL

PS ...RC re E$ dive... thanks for expln.
EDIT 18.53 And yours.. GW
  • #6,643
  • Dec 4, 2008 4:02am Dec 4, 2008 4:02am
Quoting Guerrillawar
It could have been that. But I think its more likely it was technical driven. Here was a breakout that BRV has been talking about that worked really well this time. It was break of yesterdays low in cable with serious vigor. Since euro was moving in line with cable that may have caused euro to target yesterdays low as well. Lows from yesterday in the euro got smoked which caused a stop run. Thats the general idea behind breakout theory to trigger the stops. This was a case where that happend in a text book manner. This is a reason why break-outs...
Totally agree that technicals were in the driving seat, the Eur hit my support at 12548 to the pip. But I think the UK news gave it a smack on the ass!
  • #6,644
  • Dec 4, 2008 4:12am Dec 4, 2008 4:12am
Quoting RedCabbage
Totally agree that technicals were in the driving seat, the Eur hit my support at 12548 to the pip. But I think the UK news gave it a smack on the ass!
do you mind sharing how you got support at 1.2548? I see support at 1.2560 or so.
  • #6,645
  • Dec 4, 2008 4:24am Dec 4, 2008 4:24am
Quoting Guerrillawar
do you mind sharing how you got support at 1.2548? I see support at 1.2560 or so.
I hope RC doesn't mind me chiming in on what I think he saw....
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  • #6,646
  • Dec 4, 2008 4:41am Dec 4, 2008 4:41am
Quoting Guerrillawar
do you mind sharing how you got support at 1.2548? I see support at 1.2560 or so.

No problem at all.

It began on a 4H chart at the end of Oct/start of Nov and hit several times including a 50% Fib on 21/11 (Short brown line)

You'll definitely need to expand this attachment!
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  • #6,647
  • Dec 4, 2008 4:47am Dec 4, 2008 4:47am
Quoting libb
I hope RC doesn't mind me chiming in on what I think he saw....
Interesting to see that it is clearly visible on a 1H chart as well. I guess this is the whole point, if most people can see it then most will trade it.

My problem isn't spotting the s/r lines, as you can see I put plenty on my charts, it's working out which ones are most significant and that's where this thread and you guys come in.
  • #6,648
  • Dec 4, 2008 4:53am Dec 4, 2008 4:53am
Guys,

pls hold your trades after the Brits decide on their rates...
Pretty loony out there as lines where smoked..
  • #6,649
  • Dec 4, 2008 5:02am Dec 4, 2008 5:02am
Quoting ady27
Guys,

pls hold your trades until the Brits decide on their rates...
Pretty loony out there as lines where smoked..
Good point to make ady, this is obvious to me as I'm in the UK but perhaps not to those elsewhere.

Today's moral is, 'State the obvious - it's certain to help someone.'
  • #6,650
  • Dec 4, 2008 9:40am Dec 4, 2008 9:40am
Quoting RedCabbage
Bounce from 12190 currently fo 30 pips.
Yup, looks like it was definitely a good level. Unfortunately I wasn't awake for it and already had a euro trade for +100 so I didn't set any price alerts.

Anyways as for a target on that trade, I'd look to 1.2065, roughly 120 pip move... we'll see. I may be looking to go long around that area.
  • #6,651
  • Dec 4, 2008 10:26am Dec 4, 2008 10:26am
Whoa, swissy took off big once it breached that TL.
  • #6,652
  • Dec 4, 2008 10:47am Dec 4, 2008 10:47am
HERE IT IS:}
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  • #6,653
  • Edited 11:36am Dec 4, 2008 11:15am | Edited 11:36am
Hey guys,

wish me luck shorted the euro on some fib work. short: 1.2828
targeting: 1.2750

swissie looks attractive as well
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  • #6,654
  • Dec 4, 2008 11:40am Dec 4, 2008 11:40am
Quoting Guerrillawar
Hey guys,

wish me luck shorted the euro on some fib work. short: 1.2828
targeting: 1.2750

swissie looks attractive as well
Eur could go as low as 12734/6.
  • #6,655
  • Dec 4, 2008 11:44am Dec 4, 2008 11:44am
Quoting RedCabbage
Eur could go as low as 12734/6.
Hello RC,

just a quick question mate, how did you come up with that take profit target. Just out of curiosity. I`m short since 1.2840 myself.

Thank you in advance!
Thank you Malcolm, Belekas, Jim, raczekfx and Ryanmcd !
  • #6,656
  • Dec 4, 2008 11:46am Dec 4, 2008 11:46am
Quoting RedCabbage
Eur could go as low as 12734/6.
i see that but I'm being conservative targeting that busted trendline
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  • #6,657
  • Edited 12:13pm Dec 4, 2008 12:03pm | Edited 12:13pm
Quoting djambazov84
Hello RC,

just a quick question mate, how did you come up with that take profit target. Just out of curiosity. I`m short since 1.2840 myself.

Thank you in advance!
As GW says it is a bit ambitious perhaps considering current volatility, however it is simply the proximity of a 1H s/r with a 38.2 Fib retracement of that last rally.

Most of the other retracements of rallys this afternoon get as far as 38.2% and 50%. e.g. AUDJPY AUDUSD.

Cable might get as far as 14685 38.2% and a 1H s/r.
  • #6,658
  • Dec 4, 2008 12:19pm Dec 4, 2008 12:19pm
Quoting Guerrillawar
Hey guys,

wish me luck shorted the euro on some fib work. short: 1.2828
targeting: 1.2750

swissie looks attractive as well
Hi Guerrillawar,

Would you mind sharing how you analyzed price when it reached your target entry level, that you could successfully conclude that a reversal was in place and, therefore, a short was a high probability trade?

I, myself, tried to short the pair and got burned in two attempts.

Thank you. Best regards,

linalm
  • #6,659
  • Dec 4, 2008 12:25pm Dec 4, 2008 12:25pm
GW

I missed the EURUSD as my platform crashed but I am in USDCHF long from 11982, and like you targeting a conservative 12050/38.2 Fib.

It is tempting to go to the pip with your limits but so often being shy 10-12 pips significantly increases the likelyhood of it being hit.
  • #6,660
  • Dec 4, 2008 12:29pm Dec 4, 2008 12:29pm
Hey guys, I missed this trade but I had my charts marked up waiting for it. Talk about defying dollar weakness. This was one hell of a move.
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