Historic Charts: US NFP

Jan 6, 2006

Previous: 215K
Consensus: 215K
Actual: 108K

Interpretation:
Actual is lower than Estimate: USD-
Actual is lower than Previous: USD-
Conclusion:
Storng USD short, no whipsaw

PS. If you dont like FXCM charts, then suggest a charting software that allows retrieval of historic charts.

Feb 3, 2006

Previous: 108K
Consensus: 275K
Actual: 193K

Interpretation:
Actual is lower than Estimate: USD-
Actual is higher than Previous: USD+
Conclusion:
expect whipsaw
but eventually EURUSD, GBPUSD will move in the direction of Actual vs Previous

Mar 10, 2006

Previous: 193K
Consensus: 220K
Actual: 243K

Interpretation:
Actual is higher than Estimate: USD+
Actual is higher than Previous: USD+
Conclusion:
Strong USD Bull, no whipsaw

Apr 7, 2006

Previous: 243K
Consensus: 185K
Actual: 211K

Interpretation:
Actual is higher than Estimate: USD+
Actual is lower than Previous: USD-
Conclusion:
expect whipsaw, but trend will move in the direction of Actual vs Previous

May 5, 2006

Previous: 211K
Consensus: 200K
Actual: 138K

Interpretation:
Actual is lower than Estimate: USD-
Actual is lower than Previous: USD-
Conclusion:
Strong USD Short, no whipsaw

Jun 2, 2006

Previous: 138K
Consensus: 180K
Actual: 75K

Interpretation:
Actual is lower than Estimate: USD-
Actual is lower than Previous: USD-
Conclusion:
Strong USD Short, no whipsaw

Jul 7, 2006

Previous: 75K
Consensus: 175K
Actual: 121K

Interpretation:
Actual is lower than Estimate: USD-
Actual is higher than Previous: USD+
Conclusion:
expect whipsaw, trend will move in the direction of Actual vs Previous.
Anecdote:
2 days earlier, ADP came out with a very USD bullish result clouding every trader's judgement and went USD long early. Official NFP result came out lower than that particular expectation and everyone went USD short. Thus negligible whipsaw was experienced.

Aug 4, 2004

Previous: 121K
Consensus: 143K
Actual: 113K

Interpretation:
Actual is lower than Estimate: USD-
Actual is lower than Previous: USD-
Conclusion:
Strong USD Short, no whipsaw (the tail seen is actually before the news was released)

Sep 1, 2006

Previous: 113K
Consensus: 120K
Actual: 128K

Interpretation:
Actual is lower than Estimate: USD+
Actual is lower than Previous: USD+
Conclusion:
Strong USD Bull, no whipsaw

Oct 6, 2006

Previous: 128K (revised to 188k)
Estimate: 120K
Actual: 50K

How to trade NFP.

Straddle:
10~15 pips away with 25~35 pips TP and 10 pip stop (increase SL if your broker widens spreads). Do not cancel the other order in case of whipsaw. If the numbers clearly dictates no whipsaw, remove the other order asap. Should there be a whipsaw, quick on the draw and fade it with a market order when it peaked. This way, you get to gain the loss from the whipsaw.

Market Order:
Take carefull observation of Actual Number. If it comes out lower than 120K, its clearly USD SHORT (ie, Long GBPUSD, Long EURUSD).
If the Actual number comes out better than 130K, it is clearly USD LONG (ie Short EURUSD, Short GBPUSD).

If the number comes out between 128K and 120K, it will produce a whipsaw. The initial move will be Short EURUSD and then it will reverse to LONG EURUSD. However, if there is strong USD sentiment existing in the market, there may not be a reversal anymore. Do also consider that a small 8K deviation separates the Previous and Estimate; and compare that with past whipsaws, we may not experience a whipsaw this Friday.

It is best that you get a news service provider that could give you the number.

The above analysis are objectively based solely on past NFP charts.


Anecdote: September result of 128K was revised to 188K. Many traders think that with the revision 188K vs 50K current should be USD bearish. However, some analyst explained that the 60K upward revision has a net effect of 120K added to the current number. Therefore it should be viewed as 170K vs 128K - or USD Bull!

Nov 3, 2006

Previous: 51K
Estimate: 120K~145K
Actual:

Many estimates show that there was plenty of employments created during the month of October. Expect USD to start moving very early perhaps even a day earlier!

BK's Research at history with similar data pattern of very bad previous and much better estimate:
2005 Nov 4. Previous was -35K and Estimate was 110K. GBPUSD started moving 90 pips down as early as Asia session (7PM EST) on expectation that the number will definitely be better than -35K. A better than -35K was already priced in prior to release time. Actual came out at 56K and shorted the USD. In this case, it was clearly Actual vs Estimate.

2005 Dec 2. Previous was 56K and Estimate was 225K. GBPUSD started moving in favor of the dollar as early as Asia Session (7PM EST) on expectation of better number. Again a better number was priced in prior to release time. Actual came out 215K relatively flat to expectation and minor movement was seen on release.

On both dates, there were light news on the calendar to affect the market.

Nov 3, 2006

Previous: 51K
Estimate: 120K~145K
Actual: 92K
Revision to Previous: 51K -> 148K

Anecdote:
Attached is the REAL TIME Chart I received from my LIVE FXCM ACCOUNT. Take note that it moved up 27 pips before moving down! Some other brokers also spiked up before the big drop.

During London session, USD managed to strengthen vs GBP and price did dropped down to 9050 before moving up again. It was however attributed to "profit taking" not from the "perceived strong NFP numbers". It was rumored that NFP will come lower than expectation by a lot of sources. It did came out lower! However, traders know from previous experience traded the revision accordingly.

Dec 8, 2006

Previous: 92K
Estimate: 100K~125K
Actual: 132K
Revision to Previous: 92K -> 79K

Anecdote: Minutes before the news, I was watching Bloomberg interviewing some traders on the floor. The traders were not interested in the NFP number but instead on the Revision.

Seems like it is Revision for the past 3 months!

Today, Unemployment came out 4.5% unchanged from previous and the downward revision of -13K forced the 132K NFP to neutral: 132K - 26K = 106K. Thus the "yo-yo" price action.

Jan 5, 2007

Previous 132K
Estimate 115K
Actual 167K
Revision to Previous: 132K -> 168K

*JAN CHANGE IN NONFARM PAYROLLS: 111K V 150KE
- CHANGE IN MANUFACTURING PAYROLLS: K-16 V -11KE
- prior Change in Nonfarm Payrolls revised to 206K from 167K
- prior Change in Manufacturing Payrolls revised to -18K from -12K

*JAN UNEMPLOYMENT RATE: 4.6% V 4.5%E
- no revisions

*JAN AVERAGE HOURLY EARNINGS: 0.2% V 0.3%E;
- AVERAGE WEEKLY HOURS 33.8: V 33.9E
- prior Average Hourly Earnings revised to %0.4 from 0.5%


Anecdote:
Almost 1 minute before the 8:30, prices violently fluctuates 20pips up/down! Either there is a leak or other people got the news way ahead of the official release time.

Most Data released today were very USD Negative; however, the upward revision of +30K to the previous month saved the USD; this has an effective 60K added to the current actual. Therefore effectively giving today's 111K NFP look like 170K.

Mar 9, 2007

*FEB CHANGE IN NONFARM PAYROLLS: 97K V 95KE; CHANGE IN MANUFACTURING PAYROLLS: -14K V -19KE
- prior Change in Nonfarm Payrolls revised to 146K from 111K
- prior Change in Manufacturing Payrolls revised to -2K from -16K

*FEB AVERAGE HOURLY EARNINGS: 0.4% V 0.3%E; AVERAGE WEEKLY HOURS: 33.7V 33.8E
- no revisions

*JAN TRADE BALANCE: -$59.1B V -$59.8BE
- prior revised to -$61.5B from -$61.2B

*FEB UNEMPLOYMENT RATE: 4.5% V 4.6%E
- no revisions


NOTE: EURUSD moved smoothly - no retrace, only minor stalls

*MAR CHANGE IN NONFARM PAYROLLS: 180K V 130KE;
CHANGE IN MANUFACTURING PAYROLLS: -16K V -12KE
- Prior change in nonfarm payrolls revised to 113K from 97K
- Prior change in manufacturing payrolls revised to -11 K from -14K

*- note: construction sector added 56K jobs in March, after dropping 61K in Feb.


*MAR UNEMPLOYMENT RATE: 4.4% V 4.6%E; LOWEST SINCE MAY 2001
- No revisions
- 4.4% matches last October's 5-year low. Unrounded, unemployment rate was 4.395%.

*MAR AVERAGE HOURLY EARNINGS: 0.3% V 0.3%E;
AVERAGE WEEKLY HOURS: 33.9 V 33.8E
- Prior average weekly hours revised to 33.8 from 33.7

These numbers are very USD Positive. Unfortunately due to the holiday and thin market, it was not able to rally much.

(Ignore those false upward spike/whipsaw the exists only with FXCM.)

May 4, 2007

Previous: 180K (revised to 177k)
Estimate: 107K
Actual: 88K

Jun 1, 2007

MAY CHANGE IN NONFARM PAYROLLS: 157K V 132KE;
CHANGE IN MANUFACTURING PAYROLLS: -19K V -15KE
- prior Change in Nonfarm Payrolls revised to 80K from 88K
- prior Change in Manufacturing Payrolls revised to -20K from -19K

Jul 7, 2007

*JUN CHANGE IN NONFARM PAYROLLS: 132K V 125KE;
CHANGE IN MANUFACTURING PAYROLLS: -18K V -11KE
- prior Change in Nonfarm Payrolls revised from 157K to 190K
- prior Change in Manufacturing Payrolls revised from -19K to -7K

*JUN AVERAGE HOURLY EARNINGS: 0.3% V 0.3%E,
AVERAGE WEEKLY HOURS: 33.9 V 33.9E
- Prior Average hourly earnings revised from 0.3% to 0.4
- Prior Average Weekly Hours revised from 33.9 to 33.8

*JUN UNEMPLOYMENT RATE: 4.5% V 4.5%E
- No Revisions