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  • #6,621
  • Dec 3, 2008 3:04am Dec 3, 2008 3:04am
Eur/Usd possible bucket @ 1.2637 long

BabeFX.
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  • #6,622
  • Edited 4:40am Dec 3, 2008 4:16am | Edited 4:40am
Quoting RedCabbage
Yes, superb call at 12562 smittens. I only use calls like this to back up my own analysis - trade what you see not what you hear.

This thread would be much more useful if everyone returned to BRV's idea of posting significant levels before they were hit.
Ok nice little bounce off 2600 on EU but Ive been focusing on Kiwi and Looney this morning... key levels 0.5250s and 2560s respectively..two 20pip scalps off the bounces..the cross posted a marginal buy for me at 6578 which I passed.. and missed 30...looking for better entry 6560s/40s
..
Oil flat for 3 hours.. gold in $10 box since yesterday and s^P fut look like posting lower open..so Id suspect 2600 may be retested..
any comments?

Edit.. sorry.. forgot to say ...lots of news this afternoon so going to v careful.. LoL

EDIT 11.39
Quoting RedCabbage
Got a taste for the Looney since last week cliff?
Yea mate.. all your fault!! LoL
  • #6,623
  • Dec 3, 2008 4:27am Dec 3, 2008 4:27am
Quoting cliffedwards
Ok nice little bounce off 2600 on EU but Ive been focusing on Kiwi and Looney this morning... key levels 0.5250s and 2560s respectively..two 20pip scalps off the bounces..the cross posted a marginal buy for me at 6578 which I passed.. and missed 30...looking for better entry 6560s/40s
..
Oil flat for 3 hours.. gold in $10 box since yesterday and s^P fut look like posting lower open..so Id suspect 2600 may be retested..
any comments?

Edit.. sorry.. forgot to say ...lots of news this afternoon so going to v careful.. LoL
Got a taste for the Looney since last week cliff?
  • #6,624
  • Dec 3, 2008 4:47am Dec 3, 2008 4:47am
Be carefull with all that high-yielders longs, major carry-trade pairs are printing new lows currently - in other words the whole thing is trending rather heavily, so s/r levels can be breached easily on freefalls (and even on spike retraces). Just doublecheck and use tight stops, s/r will rock when all this calm down.
  • #6,625
  • Dec 3, 2008 5:01am Dec 3, 2008 5:01am
Quoting hyh
Be carefull with all that high-yielders longs, major carry-trade pairs are printing new lows currently - in other words the whole thing is trending rather heavily, so s/r levels can be breached easily on freefalls (and even on spike retraces). Just doublecheck and use tight stops, s/r will rock when all this calm down.
Yep, I've noticed that as well. Been tough trading these past few weeks.
  • #6,626
  • Dec 3, 2008 8:10am Dec 3, 2008 8:10am
Cable could have buy orders building up the other side of 14783 for a push north later but maybe only as far as 14857
  • #6,627
  • Dec 3, 2008 8:23am Dec 3, 2008 8:23am
Quoting RedCabbage
Cable could have buy orders building up the other side of 14783 for a push north later but maybe only as far as 14857
I have that on my radar aswell. 1.4857 has confluence with 50% of last down swing.
  • #6,628
  • Dec 3, 2008 9:33am Dec 3, 2008 9:33am
Watching 1.2184/00 on the USDCHF

1.2580 on the EURUSD
  • #6,629
  • Dec 3, 2008 10:34am Dec 3, 2008 10:34am
If AUDJPY breaks through 6065 we could see a retracement from 6149 which is both a 4h s/r 61.8 Fib and intersection of a 4h TL.
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  • #6,630
  • Dec 3, 2008 3:52pm Dec 3, 2008 3:52pm
Quoting RedCabbage
If AUDJPY breaks through 6065 we could see a retracement from 6149 which is both a 4h s/r 61.8 Fib and intersection of a 4h TL.
what do you think of playing a breakout on 60.65ish? Seems to have been touched many times. Could have orders building up on the other sides.
  • #6,631
  • Dec 3, 2008 4:57pm Dec 3, 2008 4:57pm
Quoting libb
what do you think of playing a breakout on 60.65ish? Seems to have been touched many times. Could have orders building up on the other sides.
That was my first thought but many of the recent breakouts have been more difficult to enter than retracements. A high SL and low target reduces the risk/reward.

Maximum pips here are 80 so a sensible SL would be 40, but I see it has just broken through 6065 and pulled back...
  • #6,632
  • Dec 3, 2008 6:21pm Dec 3, 2008 6:21pm
Quoting RedCabbage
That was my first thought but many of the recent breakouts have been more difficult to enter than retracements. A high SL and low target reduces the risk/reward.

Maximum pips here are 80 so a sensible SL would be 40, but I see it has just broken through 6065 and pulled back...
Good points. After thinking about it for a minute I also realized a breakout would probably not be an ideal trade. Here's a quote from Iron-Man that I've printed out and will keep near my screen.

"A quick look at a 4 hr chart will tell you what kind of market you are in and thus the two plan philosophy.

If it is ranging then I can play a few bounces with tight stops.

If it is trending then I look at where price is and look for a good level for price to pull back to and get with the trend. We tend to address larger trades here but if you have read BRV's post on scalping it is very good for intraday trading. "

A look at AUD/JPY 4H shows we're in a downtrend. The strategy here would be for a good level for the price to hit resistance, reverse, and get in with the downtrend. I'm typing all this out for both myself, and others as a reminder for getting in high probability trades.
  • #6,633
  • Dec 3, 2008 10:40pm Dec 3, 2008 10:40pm
Quoting libb
Good points. After thinking about it for a minute I also realized a breakout would probably not be an ideal trade. Here's a quote from Iron-Man that I've printed out and will keep near my screen.

[b]"A quick look at a 4 hr chart will tell you what kind of market you are in and thus the two plan philosophy.

If it is ranging then I can play a few bounces with tight stops.

If it is trending then I look at where price is and look for a good level for price to pull back to and get with the trend. We tend to address larger trades...
Good point.
I replied so it will be printed again.
  • #6,634
  • Dec 3, 2008 11:51pm Dec 3, 2008 11:51pm
Hi Everyone. This has been one quiet place to be lately so I have been putting in some work on my lines, reading Mark Douglas and Wycoff, and even more importantly reaquainting myself with reversal patterns. This is something I learned a long time ago, but tended to let go and just concentrate on the lines. If I hone up on that I can add it to the lines as extra confirmation and increase my edge. I guess also, this market is teaching me patience which I am sure will pay off in the end. I have some good lines to watch for but nothing is moving so I wait. There is not even a scalp in any of this. bye.
  • #6,635
  • Dec 4, 2008 2:45am Dec 4, 2008 2:45am
Quoting libb
Good points. After thinking about it for a minute I also realized a breakout would probably not be an ideal trade. Here's a quote from Iron-Man that I've printed out and will keep near my screen.

"A quick look at a 4 hr chart will tell you what kind of market you are in and thus the two plan philosophy.

If it is ranging then I can play a few bounces with tight stops.

[b]If it is trending then I look at where price is and look for a good level for price to pull back to and get with the trend. We tend to address larger trades...
I'm glad I am making sense to someone, your points are very relevant too.

I think this thread can get quiet because people are frightened of making a fool of themselves and/or stating the obvious.

The obvious is what this strategy is all about and we need it pointing out all the time.

Thanks for raising the question of the 6065 breakout libb, discussion on here is like thinking out loud, it helps clarify things.
  • #6,636
  • Edited 3:32am Dec 4, 2008 3:02am | Edited 3:32am
I know this isn't exactly the thread for this but there are some clever traders on this thread. Whats going on with the yen and aussie. It looks like possible intervention is taking place. Any one here read anything about that? And if so how can we trade the information?
  • #6,637
  • Dec 4, 2008 3:16am Dec 4, 2008 3:16am
What the h*** was that about...anyone?
  • #6,638
  • Dec 4, 2008 3:17am Dec 4, 2008 3:17am
I hope some one one here took this trade. I didn't want to step in front of the oncoming train so I missed it.
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  • #6,639
  • Dec 4, 2008 3:27am Dec 4, 2008 3:27am
Quoting smittens4212
Watching 1.2184/00 on the USDCHF
Bounce from 12190 currently fo 30 pips.
  • #6,640
  • Dec 4, 2008 3:33am Dec 4, 2008 3:33am
Quoting cliffedwards
What the h*** was that about...anyone?
UK House Price Index was -2% vs. expected -1% and as Cable took a dive the EUR came down in sympathy.
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