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4 Hour Strategy (MACD)

  • #2,201
  • Edited 6:14am Mar 9, 2007 6:14am | Edited 6:14am
I see al the major pairs like coiled springs ready to be released. As I said last night, I am staying at the sidelines until NFP.
So I guess today will be a no-trade day. All the action will happen while I am at work.
Again, the bear-without-paws analogy comes into play.
  • #2,202
  • Mar 9, 2007 6:23am Mar 9, 2007 6:23am
Quoting alcastro
I see al the major pairs like coiled springs ready to be released. As I said last night, I am staying at the sidelines until NFP.
So I guess today will be a no-trade day. All the action will happen while I am at work.
Again, the bear-without-paws analogy comes into play.
Never say never.
  • #2,203
  • Mar 9, 2007 6:38am Mar 9, 2007 6:38am
Hi All,

Looking at this chart on the technical setup only (not taking the pending news effects into account), if this bar completes like it is right now (it doesn't close for another 1 1/2 hours), would this be a strong RT entry point?

Thanks,
Randy
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  • #2,204
  • Mar 9, 2007 6:50am Mar 9, 2007 6:50am
Arghhh, still learning that there is more to properly entering a trade than a good technical setup!!

So let's say it is agreed that this is a good MACD setup. I see this upside risk (SL area) at 117.85. However, should we only expect for a move down to get as far as the 21 ma? If so, that would give us right at a 1:1 R:R, correct?
  • #2,205
  • Mar 9, 2007 6:56am Mar 9, 2007 6:56am
Quoting tamkras
this mp3 (an extract), along with Phillip's mp3, helps me to focus on a trade plan. if you do not mind, I'll post it. The one who wrote it, also has Phillip in his name. Enjoy. But I would recommend to buy a CD. Great classical music.
Thanks Tamkras, there is a rhythm and pattern to music that reminds me of how phillip describe market rhythm. Now if i only can find the right song. yours sound like a good one to start with. thanks again for all your help
  • #2,206
  • Edited 7:37am Mar 9, 2007 7:18am | Edited 7:37am
I was thinking the same thing last night on the eur/jpy.... and it did form, but only shortly. The rule I had forgotten was - even though in a downtrend mood because it's below the 89, the price action had previously completely blown through the 21 ema (when it was suppose to come up to it and return down), which means (to me), the trend is essentially over, and it will continue up to the 89 after every so often coming down to "test" the 21 or 8 ema's.

So, with that said... be careful with this trade and look for a trend continuation in the up would be my thinking.. but what do I know? This week started great and has ended awful....

Update: I realize there was news... but it followed the rules and spiked way up... seen it happen quite a bit. Hope you didn't trade it.

Quoting RandyG67
Hi All,

Looking at this chart on the technical setup only (not taking the pending news effects into account), if this bar completes like it is right now (it doesn't close for another 1 1/2 hours), would this be a strong RT entry point?

Thanks,
Randy
DireXiv Make it happen, no one else is going to do it for you...
  • #2,207
  • Mar 9, 2007 7:18am Mar 9, 2007 7:18am
Well woke up this morning to a 40 pip loss. Although only one 1hr candle confirmed I still believe my analysis was correct. Should i have exited earlier,not allowed the trade to run.


cheers[/quote]

I didn't check the chart but thought I would offer what I am doing on entries. Similar to what Philip offers in the original strategy doc, I take the 50% fib of the signal bar [4hr], place a limit order at about 45% and hope for a fill. If no fill no loss. If I get filled odds are I can keep the stop somewhat tight. I do not look at the 1hr at all.

Just my thoughts, Scott
  • #2,208
  • Mar 9, 2007 7:20am Mar 9, 2007 7:20am
Randy: Yes, I would say that is setting up for a short. I wouldn't do a thing until the news washout is over. I use FXDD and have seen their spread spike to 20 pips on the EURO$ before news releases...
  • #2,209
  • Mar 9, 2007 7:54am Mar 9, 2007 7:54am
Wasn't really even thinking about trading it...just "what-iffing" trying to get a good feel for setups.

In keeping up with this thread the one thing I've learned is to be patient WRT waiting for the MACD bars to complete. Well, I've learned a heck of alot of other things but this seems to be mucho important.

Thanks,
Randy
  • #2,210
  • Mar 9, 2007 8:44am Mar 9, 2007 8:44am
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  • #2,211
  • Mar 9, 2007 8:56am Mar 9, 2007 8:56am
Does somebody know where is the MACD that shows the time left for the bar to be completed? Which was the post #?

I have been looking for it in the thread but cannot find it, even though I know it is there.
  • #2,212
  • Mar 9, 2007 9:03am Mar 9, 2007 9:03am
Quoting nsscott
Well woke up this morning to a 40 pip loss. Although only one 1hr candle confirmed I still believe my analysis was correct. Should i have exited earlier,not allowed the trade to run.


cheers
I didn't check the chart but thought I would offer what I am doing on entries. Similar to what Philip offers in the original strategy doc, I take the 50% fib of the signal bar [4hr], place a limit order at about 45% and hope for a fill. If no fill no loss. If I get filled odds are I can keep the stop somewhat tight. I do not look at the 1hr at all.

Just my thoughts, Scott[/quote]


Hey Scotty.

I had completly forgotten about that part of Phils strategy,thanks for the reminder.

ps. I'm very new to this, it was in fact only my 4th trade ever.Only £1/pip as I'd rather trade with real money than paper trade, just feel it will keep me from over trading because nothing is at risk.

cheers
  • #2,213
  • Mar 9, 2007 9:15am Mar 9, 2007 9:15am
Would anyone say things are about to get funky?
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"My main objective is to be professional but to kill him." - Mike Tyson.
  • #2,214
  • Mar 9, 2007 9:29am Mar 9, 2007 9:29am
Quoting RickyPluto
Would anyone say things are about to get funky?
hi rickypluto,based on your analysis of your chart,what do u conclude the direction it will go? bear or bull? thanks..
  • #2,215
  • Mar 9, 2007 9:30am Mar 9, 2007 9:30am
G/U

Just listened to the masters wrap up ,and low and behold I got the signal spot on,just cocked up with the entry and where I placed my s/l. Ah well 1 out of3 not bad for beginner.

Thanks for your teachings Phil

Cheers all have a good weekend
  • #2,216
  • Mar 9, 2007 9:36am Mar 9, 2007 9:36am
Quoting RickyPluto
Would anyone say things are about to get funky?

Hi RP.

don't mean to offend but Phil has a 5min stategy ,maybe you should ask over there,unless of course you can enligten me on its relevence to the 4hr stategy.

cheers
  • #2,217
  • Mar 9, 2007 9:43am Mar 9, 2007 9:43am
ARGH, the direction... funky! Nah, I just see this as a bearish mini-development within the whole 4-hour scenario. I'm going with the master's wrapup myself... short, with the stop-loss at 1.9365 (demo-trading, with a live account currently in the works). As you can undoubtedly sense, I'm new here, still wrestling my way through phil's pdf's. In the meantime, I intend 'shadow-trading' a string of his recommendations, if you know what I mean.

FOURX, will check out the 5-min strategy, sorry if I'm misplacing things.

-Ricky
"My main objective is to be professional but to kill him." - Mike Tyson.
  • #2,218
  • Mar 9, 2007 9:51am Mar 9, 2007 9:51am
Ricky you certainly come to the right place
  • #2,219
  • Mar 9, 2007 10:26am Mar 9, 2007 10:26am
alcastro:

I'm pretty sure it shows the number of pips needed to change the color of the MACD bar from red to green or green to red, not the time left to complete the bar. I'm at the wrong computer. It's in this thread 'somewhere'...If you can't find it PM me later and I'll repost it in the thread later today or tomorrow..
  • #2,220
  • Mar 9, 2007 10:57am Mar 9, 2007 10:57am
Quoting Palmer
alcastro:

I'm pretty sure it shows the number of pips needed to change the color of the MACD bar from red to green or green to red, not the time left to complete the bar. I'm at the wrong computer. It's in this thread 'somewhere'...If you can't find it PM me later and I'll repost it in the thread later today or tomorrow..

Hi Palmer,

thanks for your answer.
I found it after going through the thread for a 2nd time.
Wow!!!! it is a looooong one!!!
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