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4 Hour Strategy (MACD)

  • #2,181
  • Edited 5:57pm Mar 8, 2007 5:30pm | Edited 5:57pm
The whole market went for a break. I do not see leadership on either side. I am following suit and keep my head under water - very high risk to be wrong. I'll sample Jamaican white rum tonight from Wray&Nephew instead. The market tells me to relax. Good night all!

Oh, I turned on my favourite classic radio channel and here he goes: "Strangers in the night, exchanging glances..." Bears and bulls are eyeing each other... But I am still watching aussie from the corner of my eye.

Part 2. this is crazy really, just as I wanted to stay put, there is finally some activity. Now, I have to buy 1 lot of aussie, for a change. SL @0.7748.
  • #2,182
  • Mar 8, 2007 6:13pm Mar 8, 2007 6:13pm
For those that are still asking which time-frame to use, got to post #2163 and #2165 and listen to the mp3's that Phillip put together. There are your answers. There should be no more questions concerning this. It goes something like this...
  • #2,183
  • Mar 8, 2007 6:31pm Mar 8, 2007 6:31pm
Phillip, again thank you for your effort.
  • #2,184
  • Mar 8, 2007 7:28pm Mar 8, 2007 7:28pm
Quoting tamkras
Some notes on aud/usd price action if anyone is interested. My short-term bearish outlook on this pair is cancelled by the attached formation. I believe the price has found support on 0.7754 level which coincides with:

1). upper tip of the shooting star on March 6th;
2). lower channel band.

Right now, the price is trying to find an interim support on 21EMA. I covered my short position and will wait for the close of this candle to confirm if a long position can be established. Yours, T.
o.k. I am closing my night vigil with 20 pips profit. The price is close to 200SMA and I expect a bounce from here. Hope those who opened long position with me enjoyed the ride and understood the chart. Now good night!

P.S. Oh, btw, please, learn the technicals as I won't be here all the time. Yours, T.
  • #2,185
  • Mar 8, 2007 8:05pm Mar 8, 2007 8:05pm
Quoting Palmer
Ya know, the more I think about it all, the less time I'd like to spend looking at the 1hr charts. Maybe just the 1hr bar before the 4hr is formed. I was looking back at the 4hr EUR$ starting from Jan 2 of this year and it just looks so much more...fluid. With Tam's Zen like chart dynamics and Phill's MACD teachings...I think I'll spend more time there. That's just me.

....
Dear Palmer, just came your across your post and I really appreciate your kind words. I was moved, indeed. Price action, indeed, is a constant quest for self-realization. Unfortunately, by posting on this wonderful forum I am taking up time from my family and business and, probably, my visits will be less frequent. I am sure Zen-like approach - through the market exposure, by following the subject system, plan and your gut feeling - is an invaluable school. Maybe, I will be able to open such school some day with the great traders of this forum, he-he. Yours, Tamara (Tamkras)
  • #2,186
  • Edited 8:15pm Mar 8, 2007 8:09pm | Edited 8:15pm
Quoting tamkras
The whole market went for a break. I do not see leadership on either side. I am following suit and keep my head under water - very high risk to be wrong. I'll sample Jamaican white rum tonight from Wray&Nephew instead. The market tells me to relax. Good night all!

Oh, I turned on my favourite classic radio channel and here he goes: "Strangers in the night, exchanging glances..." Bears and bulls are eyeing each other... But I am still watching aussie from the corner of my eye.

Part 2. this is crazy really, just as I wanted to stay put, there is finally some activity. Now, I have to buy 1 lot of aussie, for a change. SL @0.7748.
Beautiful! Opened my charts to see where the valleys were, and noticed price had already hit the upper res. and "tailed." Love your method...makes the stops very tight. So much for the club and/or bowling (hehe).

As I continued through the posts....It looks like you did take your pips to the club. Hope you got to spend some quality time w/family and friends. Cheers to you, our Zen chart master : )
  • #2,187
  • Mar 8, 2007 9:13pm Mar 8, 2007 9:13pm
pips4uandme: I may take tomorrow off ;-)...

Tamkras: as with every solid method that comes along the originator of the idea finds him or herself spending lots of time answering questions in the thread. It takes a tremendous amount of time. Think about it, you are basically teaching someone how to trade. And lots of people see things differently, that's the problem. I went back over the 1 hour charts where the 4 hr hits the 21 like Phillip was saying...There's a word for it, wait, let me think, oh yes, that's it...gold. I'm going to start looking for your nuggets next....
  • #2,188
  • Mar 8, 2007 9:27pm Mar 8, 2007 9:27pm
Quoting tamkras
o.k. I am closing my night vigil with 20 pips profit. The price is close to 200SMA and I expect a bounce from here. Hope those who opened long position with me enjoyed the ride and understood the chart. Now good night!

P.S. Oh, btw, please, learn the technicals as I won't be here all the time. Yours, T.
tamkras,good work! can u pls share more abt how and when do u decide if u will take the trade and when do u deceided to exit as well? thanks..
  • #2,189
  • Mar 8, 2007 9:59pm Mar 8, 2007 9:59pm
this mp3 (an extract), along with Phillip's mp3, helps me to focus on a trade plan. if you do not mind, I'll post it. The one who wrote it, also has Phillip in his name. Enjoy. But I would recommend to buy a CD. Great classical music.
Attached File(s)
File Type: zip C Philipp Emanuel Bach.zip   923 KB | 1,967 downloads
  • #2,190
  • Mar 8, 2007 10:12pm Mar 8, 2007 10:12pm
Not that much action tonight.
The market is waiting for NFP.
Me too.....I will wait until the market comes to me.
See you all tomorrow.
  • #2,191
  • Mar 8, 2007 10:22pm Mar 8, 2007 10:22pm
what instrument is that?
  • #2,192
  • Mar 8, 2007 10:27pm Mar 8, 2007 10:27pm
If this candle closes up over 89, and the next candle is also strong then it would be a bullish MACD indicator no? Back up over 0 MACD line= trend continuation.
  • #2,193
  • Mar 8, 2007 10:34pm Mar 8, 2007 10:34pm
[quote=turk87;239069]If this candle closes up over 89, and the next candle is also strong then it would be a bullish MACD indicator no? Back up over 0 MACD line= trend continuation.[/quot

I agree TURK. To me it is a bounce from Zero, which is a trend continuation from the zero line. I will also wait until the candle closes above th 89 MA. Maybe there are some quick pips before NFP.
  • #2,194
  • Mar 8, 2007 11:45pm Mar 8, 2007 11:45pm
I'm trying to decide where to place stops in such 0 bounces.

I have a set rule for round bottoms and tops <=50 pips SL (its usally 50 pips)
I think for 0 crosses and bounces I will put a SL of <=30

Phillip said to be careful around these MACD levels.
  • #2,195
  • Mar 9, 2007 12:12am Mar 9, 2007 12:12am
Phillip I have an important question.

I starting thinking about this after listening to your recent mp3 when you said that GDP.USD has been losing its edge and not performing as effectively in the 4h strategy as the EUR.USD.

Where do you see your 4h Strategy in the Future for the EUR.USD?
1 Year, 2 year, 5 year, 10 years from now???
Do you still think it will work as effectively as it does today?
  • #2,196
  • Mar 9, 2007 2:19am Mar 9, 2007 2:19am
Quoting FOURX
This is my first trade using Phils strategy,took the trade at 1.9283 s/l at 1.9323 just above the 21.

Thoughts please.
Well woke up this morning to a 40 pip loss. Although only one 1hr candle confirmed I still believe my analysis was correct. Should i have exited earlier,not allowed the trade to run.


cheers
  • #2,197
  • Mar 9, 2007 3:30am Mar 9, 2007 3:30am
Quoting FOURX
Well woke up this morning to a 40 pip loss. Although only one 1hr candle confirmed I still believe my analysis was correct. Should i have exited earlier,not allowed the trade to run.


cheers
Hi fourx,
Im trying to see where you got in, I think your analysis is correct and Im wondering if your r/r was maybe wrong, ie should you have waited for a better price to get in. What tam (think it was tam) said yesterday was wait for one 4hr bar to close then wait another hour and get the conf on the 1hr then decide whether you like the r/r before you get in. I like his idea of setting your risk at 3% so if your stop has to be far away adapt the size of your trade accordingly. 40 pips sounds like a lot so I wouldnt say you had an ideal entry point, especially since it seems to be dropping again now...but it looks like (and its easy to say this AFTER the fact that yes your analysis was correct, you just have to wait for a better ep) Yesterday I was watching usdchf and I got the signal to long when it was at a high, but looking at where it might pull back to ( and looking back today IT DID) well I didnt take it, that would have been a 40 pip stop loss for me too, so you really have to be careful and maybe a good idea would be to set a limit order closer to the 21 ma. Just an idea and take all this with a grain of salt as Im no expert but just throwing out ideas...hang in there
Never say never.
  • #2,198
  • Mar 9, 2007 3:42am Mar 9, 2007 3:42am
hi fourx,

i think your stop loss should have been above 1.9350, because that's where the signal candle initiated (also this week's major resistance - 23.6 fibo level according to my graph). also keep in mind that gbp is a wide range player and tight stop losses just won't work in most cases. now you can see that you could have exited the trade at least break even + swap bonus.


deeper analysis next time..
Attached Image
  • #2,199
  • Mar 9, 2007 5:03am Mar 9, 2007 5:03am
Would this be considered an RT on swissy? Would have to break the trendline at around 53 though before I would consider getting in short...and with nfp coming up dont think any trades are a good idea, but just looking for confirmation on this RT
Attached Image
Never say never.
  • #2,200
  • Mar 9, 2007 5:22am Mar 9, 2007 5:22am
Thanks guys.

Raz I got in as the 1hr candle was forming (jumped the gun a little). However it was the only candle that agreed with the 4hr,so I would of entered on the next anyway. I also looked at 30m and 15m and these were all favourable.

PC. Yes I see what you are saying about where to place the s/l, will have to study more closely next time.

cheers
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