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  • #6,601
  • Dec 1, 2008 3:19pm Dec 1, 2008 3:19pm
Hi Guerrillawar,
Thank you very much for the input. Yes I made a mistake kept the position open long. At this point only can pray for a small replacement,otherwise I am cooked for good.
Thank you

Quoting Guerrillawar
you've made some big mistakes holding on to long. i'm sure every one on here has done the same one time or another. i'm not sure the kind of heat your taking. if on standard lots 100,000 cut it right away. if its mini-lots you could hold on a tad longer and manage the trade on eur/jpy if the h4 lows hold. The major yen crosses eur/jpy, gbp/jpy, and aud/jpy don't look so bad like usd/jpy
BANDA333
  • #6,602
  • Dec 1, 2008 3:36pm Dec 1, 2008 3:36pm
Quoting BANDA
Hi Guerrillawar,
Thank you very much for the input. Yes I made a mistake kept the position open long. At this point only can pray for a small replacement,otherwise I am cooked for good.
Thank you
Wow.. sorry about that my friend. Looking at my JPY chart there is a nice long ahead. A long now is very likely, but given the nature of the market currently, I would not hold my breath. I do hope you can shave some of that loss off.
Just a question though... why did you not have a stop loss in?
  • #6,603
  • Dec 1, 2008 7:07pm Dec 1, 2008 7:07pm
Possible bucket on USD/CHF?
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  • #6,604
  • Dec 1, 2008 8:31pm Dec 1, 2008 8:31pm
It's from last week, it's a pretty small bucket (in terms of how long the 'fight' was at the level), I would probably not lend much significance to it.

You have to say to yourself... is there a good chance or orders being stacked up there? It's possible, but it's not an immediately obvious level, especially on higher time frames (it's non-existent above the 30M level) when we're quite a bit away from it.

If a bucket is only visible on small time frames, it probably only works on a small time frame, and my guess is that we'd be well past the appropriate time frame for that bucket to be effective.
  • #6,605
  • Dec 1, 2008 8:41pm Dec 1, 2008 8:41pm
Quoting smittens4212
It's from last week, it's a pretty small bucket (in terms of how long the 'fight' was at the level), I would probably not lend much significance to it.

You have to say to yourself... is there a good chance or orders being stacked up there? It's possible, but it's not an immediately obvious level, especially on higher time frames (it's non-existent above the 30M level) when we're quite a bit away from it.

If a bucket is only visible on small time frames, it probably only works on a small time frame, and my guess is that we'd be well past the...

Good points smittens. Thanks for the insight.
  • #6,606
  • Dec 2, 2008 12:46am Dec 2, 2008 12:46am
Hi everyone,
There is something unique today.
All historic s/r confluence with fibo.
Just to make it clear, I always drew the lines without fibo. Rarely I draw the fibo to get confirmation.
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  • #6,607
  • Dec 2, 2008 1:57am Dec 2, 2008 1:57am
hard resistance at 1,2600 level on eu ...do we expect a bounce or a breakthrough?
  • #6,608
  • Dec 2, 2008 2:37am Dec 2, 2008 2:37am
Quoting kojak
hard resistance at 1,2600 level on eu ...do we expect a bounce or a breakthrough?

It already broke through it but IMO that wasn't a hard area of resistance. You want to see clear touches with significant amount of time inbetween so everyone has a chance to take notice, and the orders will pile up in anticipation of a break or bounce of a level.
  • #6,609
  • Dec 2, 2008 2:44am Dec 2, 2008 2:44am
On the theme of breakouts. Another trap may have taken place in eur/usd. Time will tell this may still develop into a real breakout. However, the price action is far from ideal from a breakout standpoint.
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  • #6,610
  • Dec 2, 2008 2:45am Dec 2, 2008 2:45am
Quoting libb
Possible bucket on USD/CHF?
Are you refering to this.

If so then yes I would call that a possible bucket as it has had 12 hours to build up orders.

However those 12 hours have been in the asian session and the DX lacked the strength yesterday to make any significant gains on the Eur and Chf.
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  • #6,611
  • Dec 2, 2008 9:14am Dec 2, 2008 9:14am
Quoting GuerrillaWar
On the theme of breakouts. Another trap may have taken place in eur/usd. Time will tell this may still develop into a real breakout. However, the price action is far from ideal from a breakout standpoint.
Quoting smittens4212
Watching 1.2562 on EURUSD if it creeps down there... haven't seen any substantive pullback recently.
C'mon Guerrilla, I thought you were with me on that one Watch out for tunnel vision... you seem to be really focused on breakouts. Let's see if it goes all the way to 1.2800? Would be nice from a prediction standpoint, but I already closed my trade at 1.2700.
  • #6,612
  • Dec 2, 2008 10:08am Dec 2, 2008 10:08am
AUD/JPY: What about theses buckets around 57.65?
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  • #6,613
  • Dec 2, 2008 11:24am Dec 2, 2008 11:24am
Quoting smittens4212
C'mon Guerrilla, I thought you were with me on that one Watch out for tunnel vision... you seem to be really focused on breakouts. Let's see if it goes all the way to 1.2800? Would be nice from a prediction standpoint, but I already closed my trade at 1.2700.
hello smittens,

nice trade you called on that 1.2562. i got long at 1.2597. the reason I have been commenting so much about break-outs of late is because BRV is working on a project to help readers of this thread determine which breakouts to take. I just want to provoke a discussion why so many breakouts fail. I'm not a fan of breakouts at all however, I wish I could find a way to incorporate them into my arsenal. I trade retracements only i think its because of my wyckoff background its a big no-no to trade breakouts using the wyckoff method. anyhow, do you still see the euro hitting 1.2800 before the NFP later this week.
  • #6,614
  • Dec 2, 2008 11:27am Dec 2, 2008 11:27am
Found another good resource...

www.kathylien.com

It's a blog from a FX trader/analyst. I've seen her on Bloomberg and CNBC, and she seems to know her stuff pretty well. There are updates pretty frequently, and often links to other analysis. Pretty good site for an overall analysis of the fundamental and technical state of the markets in general, and how it affects FX.
  • #6,615
  • Dec 2, 2008 11:38am Dec 2, 2008 11:38am
Quoting Guerrillawar
hello smittens,

nice trade you called on that 1.2562. i got long at 1.2597. the reason I have been commenting so much about break-outs of late is because BRV is working on a project to help readers of this thread determine which breakouts to take. I just want to provoke a discussion why so many breakouts fail. I'm not a fan of breakouts at all however, I wish I could find a way to incorporate them into my arsenal. I trade retracements only i think its because of my wyckoff background its a big no-no to trade breakouts using the wyckoff method....
Glad to see you got some pips then. I'm very excited to see what BRV says about breakouts and the other ideas he mentioned. I feel very comfortable trading how I'm trading right now, and at this point I'm just trying to expand my base of knowledge, learn new strategies/ideas to supplement my strategy, and continually improve the process.

I'm not sure we've got enough momentum to get up to 1.2800. it may creep up there later tonight maybe (or who knows, maybe it will burst through it later today). If it does, I'm interested in going short there.

Also, I've seen Wyckoff mentioned a lot by you and BRV and I'd like to read some of his... I think I've seen a few links here and there in this thread, any suggestions?
  • #6,616
  • Edited 11:47am Dec 2, 2008 11:43am | Edited 11:47am
Quoting smittens4212
Glad to see you got some pips then. I'm very excited to see what BRV says about breakouts and the other ideas he mentioned. I feel very comfortable trading how I'm trading right now, and at this point I'm just trying to expand my base of knowledge, learn new strategies/ideas to supplement my strategy, and continually improve the process.

I'm not sure we've got enough momentum to get up to 1.2800. it may creep up there later tonight maybe (or who knows, maybe it will burst through it later today). If it does, I'm interested in going short there....
depends how deep you want to get into wyckoff. If you want the condensed practical version there is an excellent free wyckoff forum on the www.traderslaboratory.com/ site
  • #6,617
  • Dec 2, 2008 12:10pm Dec 2, 2008 12:10pm
Quoting smittens4212
Glad to see you got some pips then.
Yes, superb call at 12562 smittens. I only use calls like this to back up my own analysis - trade what you see not what you hear.

This thread would be much more useful if everyone returned to BRV's idea of posting significant levels before they were hit.
  • #6,618
  • Dec 2, 2008 6:00pm Dec 2, 2008 6:00pm
Good evening everyone,

This is how I personally see things from here.
Critique is absolutely welcome !

gl all
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Thank you Malcolm, Belekas, Jim, raczekfx and Ryanmcd !
  • #6,619
  • Dec 2, 2008 6:58pm Dec 2, 2008 6:58pm
Here's my perspective on things. Looking to go long at 1.2650, of course whether I take it or not depends on the price action at the level.
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  • #6,620
  • Dec 2, 2008 8:12pm Dec 2, 2008 8:12pm
Quoting RedCabbage
Yes, superb call at 12562 smittens. I only use calls like this to back up my own analysis - trade what you see not what you hear.

This thread would be much more useful if everyone returned to BRV's idea of posting significant levels before they were hit.
I agree posting significant levels is what we should be doing here, i havent posted myself as im not not confident on what i see so i may influence other newbies. I find it very helpful when these levels are posted by others.

Good call 12562.
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