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  • #6,581
  • Dec 1, 2008 10:52am Dec 1, 2008 10:52am
Quoting FxChi
Silent reader of the thread: Is this the blog link you're referencing? http://traderfeed.blogspot.com/2008_11_01_archive.html

here is the link

http://traderfeed.blogspot.com/2008/...from-ziad.html
  • #6,582
  • Dec 1, 2008 11:09am Dec 1, 2008 11:09am
  •  FxChi
  • | Joined Dec 2007 | Status: Cash Rules Everything Around Me | 749 Posts
Quoting Guerrillawar
here is the link

http://traderfeed.blogspot.com/2008/...from-ziad.html
Cheers!
"Wishful thinking dies hard." Igor T.
  • #6,583
  • Dec 1, 2008 11:11am Dec 1, 2008 11:11am
Quoting Guerrillawar
from a fib standpoint it looks pretty good. fib retracement 78.6 lines up with a 1.50 fib extension
The fib retracement is interesting. When I'm at work I look at only TL + S&R.. do you find the 78.6 to be a statistically significant level? Even when I do draw fibs, I only draw the 38, 50, 62 levels.
  • #6,584
  • Dec 1, 2008 11:25am Dec 1, 2008 11:25am
Quoting smittens4212
The fib retracement is interesting. When I'm at work I look at only TL + S&R.. do you find the 78.6 to be a statistically significant level? Even when I do draw fibs, I only draw the 38, 50, 62 levels.

I find it very useful,I recall BRV staying the same a few or so weeks ago.
  • #6,585
  • Dec 1, 2008 11:30am Dec 1, 2008 11:30am
Quoting smittens4212
The fib retracement is interesting. When I'm at work I look at only TL + S&R.. do you find the 78.6 to be a statistically significant level? Even when I do draw fibs, I only draw the 38, 50, 62 levels.
i was never a big fan of fibs. in the past they caused me more harm than good. I thought I was a genius analyst and my fibs would stop the market on the dime. So I would put in resting limit orders. And of course more often than not my levels got smoked. or it caused me to miss good moves. I would wait for the fib to get touched but it would miss it by 5-6 pips and I'm stuck with nothing. I always found more value in just going with the flow when price is at s&r. But fibs can help clarify where s&r might be. The only thing I really like about fibs is to locate where the fib based victims are. This tends to be a more solid resistance level.
  • #6,586
  • Dec 1, 2008 11:53am Dec 1, 2008 11:53am
Possible retrace from 12044 intersection with 4h TL?

Or breakout south?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #6,587
  • Dec 1, 2008 12:05pm Dec 1, 2008 12:05pm
Quoting RedCabbage
Possible retrace from 12044 intersection with 4h TL?

Or breakout south?
I'm going to try something for fun here. I'm going to make a daily prediction on tomorrows action based on what I think happened today. I'm not sure its really tradeable but I seem to be right on these big moves but some how never end up in them because there isn't a good enough strategic reason to enter. My take if nothing really big happens before n.y. close the dollar had a failure today. It had the chance to take the euro and aussie deep today and it failed. Or it could of went topside in usdchf. My prediction is this. Long: euro 1.2600 Stop: 1.2500 Target: 1.2800. Again this is just for fun and pure analyst type stuff, not trading.
  • #6,588
  • Dec 1, 2008 12:06pm Dec 1, 2008 12:06pm
GJ isn't too far from it's low, which also isn't too far the the historical low either, just a note. Would be a nice area to observe.
I need to put up stop losses.
  • #6,589
  • Dec 1, 2008 12:18pm Dec 1, 2008 12:18pm
Quoting Guerrillawar
My take if nothing really big happens before n.y. close the dollar had a failure today. It had the chance to take the euro and aussie deep today and it failed. Or it could of went topside in usdchf. My prediction is this. Long: euro 1.2600 Stop: 1.2500 Target: 1.2800. Again this is just for fun and pure analyst type stuff, not trading.

Totally agree on it's failure to get a run on EUR AUS CHF. How does the DX look?
  • #6,590
  • Dec 1, 2008 12:27pm Dec 1, 2008 12:27pm
Quoting RedCabbage
Totally agree on it's failure to get a run on EUR AUS CHF. How does the DX look?
Thats where my whole theory really came from. There was really nice dx support at 8688. It had a few pops on the retest to support. Nothing big just short term stuff. However, that support is not enticing buyers and its slowly giving way. Thats why I made that statement not only did the dollar bulls fail to deliver on taking euro and aussie deep. They also couldn't rally off well defined support. Two clues for a nice counter trend bounce for the euro and aussie. Who knows about cable he's all screwey again.
  • #6,591
  • Dec 1, 2008 12:34pm Dec 1, 2008 12:34pm
Hi Friends,
How are you all? I need a help if possible. I am negative big time on USD/JPY about 200 pips(I went long)......USD/JPY has hit 93.07.........could anybody comment........is there a possibility of 200 or more pips down in USD/JPY pair do you guys think USD/JPY will breach 90.96?...........your comments and advice will be highly appreciated and it could help me immensly.
Thank you all
BANDA333
  • #6,592
  • Dec 1, 2008 12:43pm Dec 1, 2008 12:43pm
Quoting BANDA
Hi Friends,
How are you all? I need a help if possible. I am negative big time on USD/JPY about 200 pips(I went long)......USD/JPY has hit 93.07.........could anybody comment........is there a possibility of 200 or more pips down in USD/JPY pair do you guys think USD/JPY will breach 90.96?...........your comments and advice will be highly appreciated and it could help me immensly.
Thank you all
Hard to say as there isn't much recent price action in this area to guide us.

I only have 2 s/r lines 9263 and 9090 obviously the latter being the most significant.

BRV also noted today that if this pair broke through 9355 concerted selling could easily see 9090.

Just my opinion of course!
  • #6,593
  • Dec 1, 2008 12:47pm Dec 1, 2008 12:47pm
RedCabbage,
Thank-you very much for your insight.I should take a loss and come out of this mess.
Thank you


Quoting RedCabbage
Hard to say as there isn't much recent price action in this area to guide us.

I only have 2 s/r lines 9263 and 9090 obviously the latter being the most significant.

BRV also noted today that if this pair broke through 9355 concerted selling could easily see 9090.

Just my opinion of course!
BANDA333
  • #6,594
  • Dec 1, 2008 12:54pm Dec 1, 2008 12:54pm
Quoting Guerrillawar
I'm going to try something for fun here. I'm going to make a daily prediction on tomorrows action based on what I think happened today. I'm not sure its really tradeable but I seem to be right on these big moves but some how never end up in them because there isn't a good enough strategic reason to enter. My take if nothing really big happens before n.y. close the dollar had a failure today. It had the chance to take the euro and aussie deep today and it failed. Or it could of went topside in usdchf. My prediction is this. Long: euro 1.2600 Stop:...
I disagree on your observation for today. I don't think the dollar had much of a chance to take the euro further south. We saw a breakout on the GBPUSD last night, but the EURUSD broke out from it's range last week. We're down almost 400 points from the high of the range where we broke out from without any significant retracement. In my opinion, long bias on the EURUSD was definitely the bias to have if you could remain patient, then it's just a matter of executing at a good entry. I've either missed the move if it's already under way, and if it's not I'm still looking at that 1.2562 level later in the day/night.

I'm with your prediction of hitting 1.2800. It's a glaringly obvious level on the charts, which I suppose is a sort of double-edge sword.
  • #6,595
  • Dec 1, 2008 12:54pm Dec 1, 2008 12:54pm
Quoting BANDA
Hi Friends,
How are you all? I need a help if possible. I am negative big time on USD/JPY about 200 pips(I went long)......USD/JPY has hit 93.07.........could anybody comment........is there a possibility of 200 or more pips down in USD/JPY pair do you guys think USD/JPY will breach 90.96?...........your comments and advice will be highly appreciated and it could help me immensly.
Thank you all
you've made some big mistakes holding on to long. i'm sure every one on here has done the same one time or another. i'm not sure the kind of heat your taking. if on standard lots 100,000 cut it right away. if its mini-lots you could hold on a tad longer and manage the trade on eur/jpy if the h4 lows hold. The major yen crosses eur/jpy, gbp/jpy, and aud/jpy don't look so bad like usd/jpy
  • #6,596
  • Dec 1, 2008 12:57pm Dec 1, 2008 12:57pm
Quoting smittens4212
I disagree on your observation for today. I don't think the dollar had much of a chance to take the euro further south. We saw a breakout on the GBPUSD last night, but the EURUSD broke out from it's range last week. We're down almost 400 points from the high of the range where we broke out from without any significant retracement. In my opinion, long bias on the EURUSD was definitely the bias to have if you could remain patient, then it's just a matter of executing at a good entry. I've either missed the move if it's already under way, and if it's...
see post 6572. A pretty sizeable bear trap took place in the euro
  • #6,597
  • Dec 1, 2008 1:09pm Dec 1, 2008 1:09pm
Quoting Guerrillawar
see post 6572. A pretty sizeable bear trap took place in the euro
On my charts it had barely breached a lower and short-term TL (connect the lower lows of the past 20 hours or so). I guess I just wasn't expecting another run on it after it had made such huge moves Friday so the little dip was predictable as a shakeout. 400+ pips in the EURUSD is gonna be hard to follow up without getting a retracement first, especially as it has been slowly edging downwards.
  • #6,598
  • Dec 1, 2008 1:11pm Dec 1, 2008 1:11pm
Quoting Guerrillawar
you've made some big mistakes holding on to long. i'm sure every one on here has done the same one time or another. i'm not sure the kind of heat your taking. if on standard lots 100,000 cut it right away. if its mini-lots you could hold on a tad longer and manage the trade on eur/jpy if the h4 lows hold. The major yen crosses eur/jpy, gbp/jpy, and aud/jpy don't look so bad like usd/jpy
Most timeframes show the usdjpy a little oversold so there could be a small correction if and when it does go further south. 9307 has held twice on the 1h chart so far, the recent fall could have been in respponse to Bernanke confirming more IR cuts.
  • #6,599
  • Dec 1, 2008 1:14pm Dec 1, 2008 1:14pm
Quoting smittens4212
On my charts it had barely breached a lower and short-term TL (connect the lower lows of the past 20 hours or so). I guess I just wasn't expecting another run on it after it had made such huge moves Friday so the little dip was predictable as a shakeout. 400+ pips in the EURUSD is gonna be hard to follow up without getting a retracement first, especially as it has been slowly edging downwards.
i used to think the same way about getting nice counter trend bounces. Thats how the market used to work all the time. All that changed this past summer. Nowadays its possible to go thousands of pips with out a bounce. The mean reversion traders have turned their algorithms off.
  • #6,600
  • Edited 2:21pm Dec 1, 2008 1:33pm | Edited 2:21pm
Quoting Guerrillawar
i used to think the same way about getting nice counter trend bounces. Thats how the market used to work all the time. All that changed this past summer. Nowadays its possible to go thousands of pips with out a bounce. The mean reversion traders have turned their algorithms off.
I don't think I've seen us move 1000 pips without a bounce in the EURUSD, ever. Even during that period of rapid selling from the 1.60 mark, we still had 1-200 pip retracements, and those were historic sell offs. It's possible to go 5 or 600 pips without a bounce, but what is more likely? Two minutes of looking at an hourly chart tells you where on the scale of probabilities it is to go even a few hundred pips without a bounce. I don't like to think of the market as working one way or another, rather keep in mind what can happen but more importantly what's likely to happen. I don't think "the mean reversion traders have turned their algorithms off" is anything more than a cliche phrase and provides any real insight as to what the market is doing or is going to do.

Edit: I hope that doesn't come off as hostile, it's not! After all, we are in agreement as to a target over the next few hours/days even.
Edit2: Although that 1.2800 figure looks farther and farther away as price action continues to mosey around in a downward range.
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