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Trend Follower 5 Minute System

  • #2,441
  • Nov 18, 2008 1:37pm Nov 18, 2008 1:37pm
Hi Rastaman and Pilatus

thanks for your help today.

If I could pick up on some comments from Pilatus.

In terms of steady price, I take it here we are looking for solid candles moving up/down in a regular fashion rather than ones that have long tails?

Regarding the higher time frame, I can see how the 1hour acts as a filter-with the guppy configuration red on top of green would we only look for trades to the downside? Is this a solid rule that you apply or discretionary?

(apologies if this is covered in the thread, I'm patiently working my way through it)

Kind regards

Mark
  • #2,442
  • Nov 18, 2008 3:54pm Nov 18, 2008 3:54pm
Quoting Rastaman
Pilatus. are you still managing to trade reasonably well with Trendfollower or are have you reverted to another system?

I noticed that it is hard to find a decent signal recently. In fact the the market is so choppy that trades move almost in the opposite direction to most indicators very often.

I am still watching this system but am relying more on fibs and taking more SHORT trades off the top of these spikes.
The only system I trade on real is TF5min. But as you can read in my previous posts I noted that if you want to trade this system with profit you must to have patience. Now, these days we are in range condition so no good signals. Maybe when price break range there will be some signals which I will miss because I do not want to trade in range conditions, but after that when trend establish again I will be pretty sure that every next signal is worthy one.
So have patience and wait. If you did not know price is 70% in range and 30% in trend most of the time. So wait for 30% time in trend condition. This system is the best of all I have seen im my trading career, but it has some rules which must be obey. The rule #1 which name of that system says is TREND. It produces signals with high rate of accuracy but trend is NEEDED. When there is a trend TF5min will give you best entry in trade and TREND to ride it. Just wait.
  • #2,443
  • Nov 18, 2008 4:14pm Nov 18, 2008 4:14pm
Quoting mark r
Hi Rastaman and Pilatus

thanks for your help today.

If I could pick up on some comments from Pilatus.

In terms of steady price, I take it here we are looking for solid candles moving up/down in a regular fashion rather than ones that have long tails?

Regarding the higher time frame, I can see how the 1hour acts as a filter-with the guppy configuration red on top of green would we only look for trades to the downside? Is this a solid rule that you apply or discretionary?

(apologies if this is covered in the thread, I'm patiently...
Steady price is when price is moving horizontally or horizontally in small range. It is easy to recognize it because it has most of the time small stop loss, around 20 pips on most pairs. I do not look higher time frame to filter if there is good signal. I rahter use it to determine the trend and to find mayor or significant support and resistance levels. Those levels are weekly, monthly pivots but not all the time. I rather recognize it by my self. Those levels help me to evaluate good signals and to analyze what I can expect of trade in which I am preparing to enter. That means what I can expect where price can go and how many pips. It is my way, maybe you can be more succesful with your analyzing higher time frame with guppy red or green. That is not important. Important is that you have VALID signal and that this signal have potential to follow the trend and that R/R ratio is worth to enter a trade.
Here is example of steady price and signal on blue vertical line after steady price. Hope this will help.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurusd.gif Size: 44 KB
  • #2,444
  • Nov 18, 2008 4:15pm Nov 18, 2008 4:15pm
Quoting yab
hi I"m new to this system & I wold like to discuss it with sumbody If someone is intrasted to help me pl.send me an email [email protected]
thanks
Ask free here anything you want to know.
  • #2,445
  • Nov 19, 2008 9:49am Nov 19, 2008 9:49am
Still not many good signals around.

Just managed to scalp $600 in under 10 mins off the CHF/JPY during one of those crazy spikes. Rode it down, waited for it to retrace and then rode it again.
They are not that hard to catch and are quick to run in the right direction.

That said, I am not following the rules right now. Naughty, I know but it is hard to resist these spikes.

http://img156.imageshack.us/img156/4069/chfjpyoc0.jpg
Starting to see instead of just looking.
  • #2,446
  • Nov 26, 2008 2:57am Nov 26, 2008 2:57am
Hi everyone...

This is my first post, Just wanted to say Thanks for everyone, this is an awesome system...

I was just wondering is there a way, I can get an alarm when the Guppy has changed trend?

Thanks for any suggestions

Cheers
Fxseer
  • #2,447
  • Dec 1, 2008 9:13am Dec 1, 2008 9:13am
Missed out on a trade today, at the purple line. All the indicators were fine, but I thought that the GMMA was not compressed enough in the first pic below. Obviously, given the short trend, it was fine (pic 2).

So, when considering whether the GMMA is compressed, you need to take into account the Price axis settings, as the auto-scaling can change the perception of how compressed it is.

My initial thoughts on this are that if the GMMA is expanded less than 1/2 the distance between the pivot and the first support/resistance band then it's probably OK.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: comp1.gif Size: 50 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: comp2.gif Size: 49 KB
  • #2,448
  • Edited 1:08pm Dec 1, 2008 12:23pm | Edited 1:08pm
Quoting 1ka
Missed out on a trade today, at the purple line....
Congratulation on finding good signal. Price movement can tell you how guppy are contracted if you have doubt in it. If price is moving in small range about 30-40 pips and you see that guppy are not contracted as you want to see them you can consider that signal is valid. if you see price movement of usd/jpy few days ago you will find that price was in small range or steady. Price dont want to break resistance nor support, but guppy are showing us that price is set up for short. That is why TheWicker pay so much atention on guppy as #1 indicator in this excelent system. Keep going on
  • #2,449
  • Dec 1, 2008 3:14pm Dec 1, 2008 3:14pm
HI,

Please can you tell me where I can download that indicator below de chart.

Thanks.



Quoting 1ka
Missed out on a trade today, at the purple line....
What does not kill me makes me stronger. Friedrich Nietzsche,
  • #2,450
  • Dec 1, 2008 4:15pm Dec 1, 2008 4:15pm
Quoting ikki
HI,

Please can you tell me where I can download that indicator below de chart.

Thanks.

You can get it here -> http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...postcount=2300

I've noticed a few issues with the indicator, namely it lags the chart by one bar too many. Since I've got the code I'm in the process of changing it to fix the bar lag and add an option to be more 'lenient'. Watch this space...
  • #2,451
  • Dec 2, 2008 1:03pm Dec 2, 2008 1:03pm
I'm interested in this but why the MCAD and laguerre? It seems that you can trade this without them and that they lag and often get you in at times when you shouldn't.

What do you exactly use the MACD and laguerre for because I see that when they signal you are already out a couple pips that you could have gotten by reading the candles.
  • #2,452
  • Dec 3, 2008 2:51am Dec 3, 2008 2:51am
Quoting Balto
I'm interested in this but why the MCAD and laguerre?
Key indicators of "The System". Read the first post ;-)
  • #2,453
  • Dec 3, 2008 11:34am Dec 3, 2008 11:34am
Trade which I took today. Eur/jpy short. After breach of support line (red upper line) price retraced from that level and this level becomes resistance and our signal occured. Target level reached daily S1. Why is this signal goood.? Guppy not so expanded yet, start of new move or mini trend. Macd and laguerre good on second candle after red arrow. But most important thing is that support become resistance and guppy are not so expanded.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurjpy1.gif Size: 42 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: eurjpy2.gif Size: 57 KB
  • #2,454
  • Dec 4, 2008 9:22am Dec 4, 2008 9:22am
Very well thought out entry Pilatus...I must study more!!

I will certainly remember the setup.

Many thanks
Starting to see instead of just looking.
  • #2,455
  • Edited 2:38pm Dec 7, 2008 2:02pm | Edited 2:38pm
Hey pilatus ,
The red and blue trend lines , can you please tell me what settings you use for the red and blue trend lines ? I see you have two going in your pic .Looks like it could be helpful .
Thanks in advance and I really am greatful for your contribution here Your kicken some fx butt !
  • #2,456
  • Dec 7, 2008 4:16pm Dec 7, 2008 4:16pm
Quoting tgiambarberee
Hey pilatus ,
The red and blue trend lines , can you please tell me what settings you use for the red and blue trend lines ? I see you have two going in your pic .Looks like it could be helpful .
Thanks in advance and I really am greatful for your contribution here Your kicken some fx butt !
Well, I do not use any trend lines on 5min chart and what you see in example in my post is only the way how I valuate if signal is good one and worth of taking as signal for entry. In other words, I only looks for signal which occur after some bounce of S/R depends if I want to buy or sell. But this is not only one condition, I want that guppy are contracted and that MACD/LAGUERRE are in corect order. If it is possible price steady before signal.
Why I look on that way? Because you have a lot of valid signals during one week but all of them are not WORTH of taking trade. I do not need plenty of signals, I want few of them but few excellent signals.
I use trend lines, but on 1 hour chart not on 5 min. But on that example before with EUR/JPY I want to show how good signal can be recognized. That of course doesnt mean that this method works all the time. But it has better potential than just jump in a trade because all conditions are met. In FX there is no holly grail system and it will never be made. DO you know why?? No system on the world can not predict what milions of investors and traders think, what they see on their charts, what they use to analyze news and most important thing HOW will they act. That is why I do not believe in EA trading, because price movement in fx is most of the time mess and random. But, but, there is some rules which are most of the time obeyed. Those are support and resistance. Fx is buying support and selling resistance. So, our system can very well recognize when that is happen and I want to check that too. That is why I want to see that price bounce from some resistance when I go short and vice versa for long.
One thing else, this system is the nearest to holly grail, but it need some requirement. That is PATIENCE. Hope I helped.
P.S. Red lines are just for showing support level which become resistance after signal. Blue lines are pivots line original from system daily S1.
  • #2,457
  • Edited 8:46pm Dec 7, 2008 8:43pm | Edited 8:46pm
Pilatus, Thanks you for your awsome guidance .How do you get the slope lines both at once going over price and under price ?
  • #2,458
  • Dec 8, 2008 2:08am Dec 8, 2008 2:08am
Quoting tgiambarberee
Pilatus, Thanks you for your awsome guidance .How do you get the slope lines both at once going over price and under price ?
Oh sorry for that! This is not part of system. This is something I try to test to get better exit point and I did not remove it before I took a pic. If I get better results with that I will certainly post it here. So for now still in testing.
  • #2,459
  • Dec 8, 2008 7:04am Dec 8, 2008 7:04am
Quoting pilatus
Trade which I took today. Eur/jpy short. After breach of support line (red upper line) price retraced from that level and this level becomes resistance and our signal occured. Target level reached daily S1. Why is this signal goood.? Guppy not so expanded yet, start of new move or mini trend. Macd and laguerre good on second candle after red arrow. But most important thing is that support become resistance and guppy are not so expanded.
Thank you Pilatus.I like that trade and the attendant explanation that informed taken it.The lesson is well understood.Thanks again.
  • #2,460
  • Dec 8, 2008 7:52am Dec 8, 2008 7:52am
No problem Aje!!!
Today early in the morning EU time we had a lot of good signals. But on this post I would like to show what is excellent set up.
Ok, we have chart USD/CAD. During the night we had steady price movement in small range of 20-40 pips. Price breach previous support or low of friday which is level about 1,2735. Today early price could not breach that level again but rather retrace or bounce from it few times. Finally, our splendid signal for short occur on blue vertical line. And BOOOM 200 pips trade happen.
Conditoins??
1. Guppy set up for short, CONTRACTED when signal occur. IMPORANT. Steady price movement make guppy contracted and ready for setting splendid short signal.
2. Price could not breach 1,2735 and go up again and rather retraced from that significant level. So support on 1,2735 become resistance.
3. Price is steady as I mentioned before.
Laguerre and MACD ok on second candle.
Enter a trade and enjoy!!!
Holy grail no doubt.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: steady price.gif Size: 54 KB
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