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  • #6,561
  • Dec 1, 2008 7:08am Dec 1, 2008 7:08am
Quoting BillyRayValentine
Right......here's the second major issue - distinguishing these false breakouts. The best remedy I came up with is that if a level has not been hit within 2 pips to wait for a third retest before attempting to sell. This is a frequent occurrance, and it usually happens when the trend is already over extended for the day. In a case like this, I was thinking of including a rule regarding the true range for the day, and if it is already greater than xx amount (true range being high-low compared to past x number of bars). Working on it but very valid...
Either way, with proper money management and diversification across multiple, non correlated pairs, results still stand well within a trader's favor.
  • #6,562
  • Dec 1, 2008 7:12am Dec 1, 2008 7:12am
Quoting Guerrillawar
How do you guard against becoming the herd if you allow the news to influence your decisions. Granted common sense is always the best practice. But when things aren't so clear isn't better to fade the news?
Stick with the trend is always my best practice. If the trend is down, and the news is positive, fade the news. If the trend is down and news is bad, sell a pullback when things cool off, simply stated.

Just watch out for the news so severe that it can completely turn things around. But most common data releases dont fit into this category.
  • #6,563
  • Dec 1, 2008 7:21am Dec 1, 2008 7:21am
quite interesting story in the eur/usd involving this possible break out. If you zoom in on the tape rather than the chart its clear there is both heavy selling and buying. this shall be fun. feel like a trap to me. Eur/jpy is bid, eur/chf is bid, and euro index is bid
  • #6,564
  • Dec 1, 2008 7:25am Dec 1, 2008 7:25am
Quoting Guerrillawar
quite interesting story in the eur/usd involving this possible break out. If you zoom in on the tape rather than the chart its clear there is both heavy selling and buying. this shall be fun. feel like a trap to me. Eur/jpy is bid, eur/chf is bid, and euro index is bid
It is. Short term I see it bid but over the next few days I think the offers will prevail. It's mixed in an immediate sense. The 1.3000 area was the place to sell. I'm looking for pullbacks personally. Its stuck in the middle right now with the intraday traders and longer term traders battling it out. I'll let them battle and wait a little bit.
  • #6,565
  • Dec 1, 2008 7:38am Dec 1, 2008 7:38am
I'm viewing this as a price rejection and going to try put on some longs in a strategic manner with stops right at the established lows
  • #6,566
  • Dec 1, 2008 7:47am Dec 1, 2008 7:47am
Quote
But in conjunction with this method, simple breakout techniques, like the ones we have mentioned in previous posts, would work extremely well. An example would be the break out of USD/JPY tonight to the downside on a violation of 94.60 support. It was an easy trade with no nonsense that gave up about 100 pips in about 2 hrs. GBP/JPY's breakout tonight of the 145.50 area is another example. That provided apprximately 500 pips in about 3 hours.
The main question here is to determine the targets for breakout. For example, mentioned 500 pips on GY in fact were a surprise for me (and many other traders ), pullbacks at 143.7, 143, 141 were really expected, but the momentum was so strong that all mentioned levels were sliced with ease. As usually it was the combination of low number of buyers with major seloff, probably GBP dumping from some bank's side. So the question is: how to determine such possibilities in automated systems? I see no relevant way to do it at the moment. Manually i got the wave, but, in fact, with no strict rules involved (except the 'selloff time!!!' one ofc), which is hardly implementable algorithmically.
  • #6,567
  • Dec 1, 2008 7:47am Dec 1, 2008 7:47am
Quoting Guerrillawar
I'm viewing this as a price rejection and going to try put on some longs in a strategic manner with stops right at the established lows
There is a nice s/r flip zone at 1.2580 where i would have my eyes on shorter time frame. As for shorts i think the 1.2800 area is still strong as a resistance.
  • #6,568
  • Dec 1, 2008 8:02am Dec 1, 2008 8:02am
Hi,

Thanks BRV and all the contributors to this thread for creating such a wealth of information. I think using s/r techniques is the only way to trade and really understand why you are doing so.

With regards to exits - what about using Ironman's 5 minute strategy in conjunction with a price target - using support and resistance created as the trade moves to adjust your stop as you go. I think this is a good way to manage your trades and it certainly has helped me manage mine.

That is assuming you are intraday trading - obviously if you were trading much longer term then a 5 minute exit strategy wouldn't be a good idea!

Regards,

Dan
  • #6,569
  • Dec 1, 2008 8:12am Dec 1, 2008 8:12am
Quoting Greenhaze
There is a nice s/r flip zone at 1.2580 where i would have my eyes on shorter time frame. As for shorts i think the 1.2800 area is still strong as a resistance.
Bulls dropped at the party in 1.2581. I was scared to enter becouse of the down momentum instead i've entered of the bullish outside bar on 5min tf.
I was hoping fior nice V spike and we got it here , 10 pips to be.
  • #6,570
  • Dec 1, 2008 8:39am Dec 1, 2008 8:39am
I thought I would post an excerpt from Dr. Bretts blog. If you don't read that blog, I strongly recommend you do. Its probably one of the best free resources on the internet.

I had the same thoughts about the market as one of his readers. His reader put these thoughts into a very eloquent post. The main message is that as short term traders we are extremely lucky as of late. One should reflect and put in effort during this market environment to study and try to advance our knowledge of the markets.


"Just thought I'd write and share an observation with you. A trader friend of mine and I were talking recently and it occurred to us that the recent market environment not only is giving incredible opportunities for some large profits, but it is also giving incredible opportunities for accelerated learning. With volatility running at all time highs, what used to take 2 weeks to transpire is now taking one day (like you alluded to in your ATR study). As such, and with the abundance of trends that we're seeing, there are literally hundreds of more patterns appearing in a given time-frame than we used to see before. I remember early last year I'd sit there and watch the market for hours as it moved in a 6 point range with nothing happening. Now it's almost non-stop action. The effect of all this extra exposure has been accelerated learning.

This was all brought home to me when I noticed starting a couple of months ago that my trading skills seemed to make an instant leap. I was suddenly seeing the market differently and being able to sense moves to a much better degree. I couldn't understand the reason for this, but now I see it was the result of accelerated learning given the market conditions of late. Quite literally, it's as if I just got 2 years of added experience compressed within 2 months. Realizing this has not only been interesting, but it has also benefited me indirectly because I was starting to doubt how my results could be so good. I was thinking this is too good to be true for it to be happening so fast (which can be a form of self-sabotage), but now I realize that the length of time I've been trading can be deceiving as it's not the length of time itself that determines learning but how much exposure we have to patterns during that time. And from that point of view, there's never been a better time to learn and grow as a day trader... this market, far from just offering ample opportunity, is offering a crash graduate course. And I'm happy to be enrolled!"
  • #6,571
  • Dec 1, 2008 8:42am Dec 1, 2008 8:42am
To update that breakout that I was talking about. It sure was one wild ride.
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  • #6,572
  • Dec 1, 2008 8:53am Dec 1, 2008 8:53am
HI BRV, Do you still post your daily S/R levels? if so where can i find them?

If they are not posted anymore, does anyone know where I can I find them posted daily? Even outside of this forum.

I know that we can see the levels by viewing our charts but its good to see that we we are looking at the same areas.

Thanks in advance to anyone who answers.
  • #6,573
  • Dec 1, 2008 9:38am Dec 1, 2008 9:38am
Quoting bobcat
HI BRV, Do you still post your daily S/R levels? if so where can i find them?

If they are not posted anymore, does anyone know where I can I find them posted daily? Even outside of this forum.

I know that we can see the levels by viewing our charts but its good to see that we we are looking at the same areas.

Thanks in advance to anyone who answers.
I am looking for them also. Had to be away from forex for a couple of weeks--Yikes!-longest time in a while. I need updated confirmation on levels please. Let me know if you find them and I'll do the same.
  • #6,574
  • Dec 1, 2008 9:51am Dec 1, 2008 9:51am
Quoting bobcat
HI BRV, Do you still post your daily S/R levels? if so where can i find them?

If they are not posted anymore, does anyone know where I can I find them posted daily? Even outside of this forum.

I know that we can see the levels by viewing our charts but its good to see that we we are looking at the same areas.

Thanks in advance to anyone who answers.
This site list S&R levels and if you click on Tech outlook for the pair your interested in they show a chart with their trend lines

http://www.actionforex.com/
  • #6,575
  • Dec 1, 2008 9:57am Dec 1, 2008 9:57am
Watching 1.2562 on EURUSD if it creeps down there... haven't seen any substantive pullback recently.
  • #6,576
  • Dec 1, 2008 10:10am Dec 1, 2008 10:10am
Classic build up of sell orders on Gold over the last few days. Just proves the s/r principles yet again.
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  • #6,577
  • Dec 1, 2008 10:26am Dec 1, 2008 10:26am
Quoting smittens4212
Watching 1.2562 on EURUSD if it creeps down there... haven't seen any substantive pullback recently.
smittems, is this what your looking at
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  • #6,578
  • Dec 1, 2008 10:41am Dec 1, 2008 10:41am
Yep, exactly.

I think if it does end up trickling down there within the next few hours or even later tonight it could provide a good move upwards.
  • #6,579
  • Dec 1, 2008 10:47am Dec 1, 2008 10:47am
Quoting smittens4212
Yep, exactly.

I think if it does end up trickling down there within the next few hours or even later tonight it could provide a good move upwards.
from a fib standpoint it looks pretty good. fib retracement 78.6 lines up with a 1.50 fib extension
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  • #6,580
  • Dec 1, 2008 10:50am Dec 1, 2008 10:50am
  •  FxChi
  • | Joined Dec 2007 | Status: Cash Rules Everything Around Me | 749 Posts
Quoting Guerrillawar
I thought I would post an excerpt from Dr. Bretts blog. If you don't read that blog, I strongly recommend you do. Its probably one of the best free resources on the internet.

I had the same thoughts about the market as one of his readers. His reader put these thoughts into a very eloquent post. The main message is that as short term traders we are extremely lucky as of late. One should reflect and put in effort during this market environment to study and try to advance our knowledge of the markets.


[b]"Just thought I'd write and share an...
Silent reader of the thread: Is this the blog link you're referencing? http://traderfeed.blogspot.com/2008_11_01_archive.html
"Wishful thinking dies hard." Igor T.
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