No Brainer Trades

Good one Kojak. Looking a bit weak at the moment although I am still looking up. Could be a long wait. Audusd looked tempting at 6433 but will not touch it until 6331, or after tomorrow int rate announcement. Was speaking to someone from bank over here and they expect big cut so be careful with that one even if it looks like a chance.

Generally the week before Christmas and the first week of new year is quieter. However last year IIRC there were some big moves late Dec and early Jan.

There are bound to be readjustments made in Dec it's just a question of when they occur realtive to the holidays.

Hi Tori

I am also in on the EUR trade, but I don't see the validity of your Diagonal Trendline. How did you manage to come across this?

This is a four hr. chart. I put my diagonals in just as a help in determining my entrance which was when diagonal crossed 609 horizontal. This is a green line because it is one I determine to be stronger than the white ones. So I took the trade and it was good. Then interestingly it came down on one hour chart several times to bounce again. If you dont see the validity of the better entry when the diagonal crosses the horizontal, and in fact it is ambiguous, then it is wise not to take it. You need to be clear about the reason you take that entry point. My reason is my green line, my diagonal crossing at the bounce, as well as whatever else I use.

I took the trade based on the S&R level and price action

PS. You can see where the diagonal crossed at 440 as well, and up she went. Of course this does not always happen. It would be foolish to suggest it would. It is merely another way of deciding whether that is the entry I want. I only look at the diagonal line in relation to a cross. I dont trade a breakout of it otherwise.

I can see where it does it on YOUR chart, but what I am saying is... how many people draw trendlines like that?

Hi guys, how are you all doing?

Last week I wasn't trading. I was working with an I.T. friend of mine testing out the methods we use here in this thread. I'm trying to get these methods automated and turned into a complete system.

Some interesting findings have come to light. Heres just a few. Firstly, entering on the initial fade with out some sort of confirmation no matter how good the level based on s&r, fibs, trendlines, or even a combination of all the three (confluence) does not create positive expectancy. This means over the long term you can't expect significant capital appreciation in your account unless you have immense skill and inutuition, if you simply have entry orders resting on your lines. Secondly, the main factor that allowed these methods to turn a profit was a concept that all I call enter and forget. What yielded the best results was a fixed exit regime. Either a 2/1 or 3/1 Risk reward ratio. That means entering and remaining in your position no matter what until your stop or target was hit. Some times it required holds overnight. The concept of 1/2 off, or price moves a certain distance and bring the stop to breakeven all damaged returns, it was better to add to winner rather than to start taking off at the very levels that one would start taking off. This indicates these trade management plans tend to be mere crutches for your ego. The best results came from a fixed exit regime.

Now a few words. I'm no expert tester so don't take my findings to seriously. I hope some of you guys will try to test these methods as well and see if you can discover any thing of value.

It is a very well used indicator, just as macd, rsi, ect ect. When I post a chart I always put my lines, say what I am looking at, and why. There would be no point in me posting a chart at all if I just deleted certain lines because they might not be anothers style. Of course those who would not use this line will choose their trade based on many other reasons. They however, are not posting the chart. I am. And so I choose to explain what I see and why. I have learned much from others who post charts with fib on them, even though I have not been one to use it myself. I have because of what I have seen, decided that I should take some notice of this and perhaps at least watch how it works. Many people have knowledge to share, and as far as I am concerned, that knowledge is very welcome. I of course do not use all I see, but the seeing allows me to then be the judge of what I myself wish to take on board. You can be sure I will be equally ready to listen to the things you can teach me about how you judge price action and entry points. I can certainly use plenty of that info.

does anyone see a s/r level that looks good on this chart?

Tori,

I have posted two charts. Is this the way you were thinking at the time? Your first trendline looked like my chart 1. Then you updated the trendline like my chart 2. If this is not the case please explain how you got that trend line to line up.

That's a joke, is it?

I think you have your itunes visualiser open by mistake.

I think you misunderstood what I was saying and asking Tori. Reminds me of a point BRV made on trendlines and how it should be clear to others. I am quite sure there is a reason for drawing the trendline the way you did based on your methods or 'style' as you may call it, but I am sure you can agree that there are basic rules in things such as drawing a trendline. The attachment shows why I questioned your TL, hope you understand now why I asked.
Of all the various ways I could have drawn it, it doesn't match yours.

That's what I was saying GW.. thanks

lol... hope you at least had a good laugh. I have friends who still trade like this. Seriously! I'm a straight s/r trader and have been for years. Been following this post here and there and I finally felt compelled to post something. Thanks for not totally bashing me Red

Wonko, you beat me to it !!

.... I hope it was a joke

Thats the conventional way. This tends to work well for the big trades. But when your going for really short term trades, some times its good to go unconventional. Tori is sharp with her trendlines. She sometimes finds super trendlines that totally pass me by. I think she really can teach some of us old dogs some new tricks.

Post 6517 was a one hr chart and 6525 was a 4 hr chart. On the four hr chart the cross was quite distinct but the trade was taken when it touched the line again. Not at the point of the cross. The line was not updated, that is how it showed on both charts. I always draw the line from the 4 hr chart and see what it looks like at one hour. If you notice on the one hr chart the wick of the candle came through it a little and as the candle would still have been developing it cant be taken from the bottom of that candle till the next one ends and it is found to be the lowest. That is why sometimes they hit so well and other times they dont, and that is why it is ambiguous. I only look at if there is a cross on four hour and how it looks on one hour. It is useful to me if I see some verification that it is holding. one hr chart shows that line has now been touched four times almost to the pip. I would however not have gone in after the second touch no matter how many times it hits. If you blew it up to a 5 min chart it would be way off because of the time frame and of absolutely no use. It is just for the one purpose for me, a clear cross. Then I must look at other things as well. After several one hour candles have past the line needs to be redrawn from right low to next lowest low, but of course the four hour would not be redrawn because it would not have completed another candle. So you could end up with two completely different lines, which means you have to decide which time frame you want. I keep the four hour unless I am just going to watch smaller time frames. This is why in my opinion the diagonal is best just used for a cross to help verify an entry, of course in conjunction with other info.

Good enough for me