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7am-9am Big Dog USD Breakout Strategy

  • #881
  • Nov 30, 2008 1:06am Nov 30, 2008 1:06am
Quoting tsimic6
I've posted on this thread few weeks before, with my own variation of this system, that proved to work very well for my trading style.
I've attached an spreadsheet with my analysis.

So my system follows these rules:

Enter trade with three lots (in my case micro lots)

First TP - 15 pips (move SL to BE)
Secon TP - 45 pips (move SL to + 5 pips)
Third TP - 100 pips

SL - opposite side of channel (not more than 100 pips)

If channel is wider than 100 pips, then SL is 100 pips.

I'm trading Three pairs - GBP/USD, EUR/USD; CHF/USD

The most...
Hi,

Thanks for posting your system. May I know what is your initial SL lets say if the price does not even hit the first 15 pips profit target?

Cheers and good luck
  • #882
  • Nov 30, 2008 3:39pm Nov 30, 2008 3:39pm
no stop loss. I just set a limit f 10 pips
  • #883
  • Nov 30, 2008 5:27pm Nov 30, 2008 5:27pm
I don't get a chance to post very often but thought I would add what I am having some success with.

First off, I am very comfortable with a 2 - 1 risk to reward ratio. If you are not, just skip the rest of this post.

1. I have had good results using both the London and New York opens.

2. I look for pairs that are trending, I do not necessarily trade the same pairs everyday. Nothing technical - I look at a 1 hour chart. Also, if news is coming out that I think could cause a reversal - I will skip that pair for that box.

3. Ok - now I have a trending pair and a high and low that make up the box. If the box is less than 60 pips wide, I use 15 pip tp and a 30 pip sl.

If the box is greater than 60 pips wide, I take the box width and divide it by 4 to set my tp and use the box width divided by 2 for the sl. ie. If the box width is 100 - my tp will be 25 - my sl will be 50. I will adjust both the sl and tp if it appears either support or resistance will work to my advantage.

4. All my orders are set to expire 3 hours after entry. I feel after 3 hours, I lose the edge I get by trading a trending pair.

AS WITH ALL SYSTEMS, MONEY MANAGEMENT IS THE KEY!!!!!

I never risk more than 3% on a particular currency - 6% on a session open. The number of lots are adjusted accordingly. I have experimented with a 15 pip trailing sl with limited success.

Now don't ask me technical questions or ask me to post my account.

YOU NEED TO DO YOUR OWN DUE DILIGENCE BEFORE YOU MAKE ANY TRADES.

Happy pipping all...


T...
  • #884
  • Nov 30, 2008 6:17pm Nov 30, 2008 6:17pm
who workes with this system more than 2-3 month? What is results?
  • #885
  • Nov 30, 2008 6:30pm Nov 30, 2008 6:30pm
About stop loss . ratito 1:2 si not good for this system. What will you doing if yours stop loss -50 and profit +10-15 ( 1/2 of +25p ). if you will have 4-5 times stop loss ( -200-250p) but yor profit will be to small to covere yours loss.
  • #886
  • Nov 30, 2008 8:40pm Nov 30, 2008 8:40pm
Quoting dkv023
About stop loss . ratito 1:2 si not good for this system. What will you doing if yours stop loss -50 and profit +10-15 ( 1/2 of +25p ). if you will have 4-5 times stop loss ( -200-250p) but yor profit will be to small to covere yours loss.
Providing you have a hit rate greater than 67%, there's nothing wrong with a 2:1 risk reward ratio. It would be the same as having a risk reward ratio of 1:2 and winning 33% of the time.

We know that this type of trading generally has a high hit rate, so there's no real issue.

Tsqaud, what sort of hit rate have you been achieving with your approach?

Kind Regards,
Matt.
  • #887
  • Dec 1, 2008 2:01am Dec 1, 2008 2:01am
Quoting piptrees
Hi,

Thanks for posting your system. May I know what is your initial SL lets say if the price does not even hit the first 15 pips profit target?

Cheers and good luck
SL is always the other side of Channel, or if the channel is more than 100 pips wide, then my Sl would be 100 pips.
My risk - reward ratio is, most often, between 1,5 - 2 : 1 - it depends on the channel wideness. As you can see from my post I had 7 trades on GBP hiting 100 pip target, which brings me enough room to breed if there is few losers within month. All those small profits that I collect along the month are just building my account enough to be in profit.

Cheers
Gutenberg money printing machine
  • #888
  • Dec 1, 2008 3:48am Dec 1, 2008 3:48am
if it is will be not working good , 67% ??? where do you know that price will give 67% winning ? you didnot know future
  • #889
  • Dec 1, 2008 4:42am Dec 1, 2008 4:42am
Quoting dkv023
if it is will be not working good , 67% ??? where do you know that price will give 67% winning ? you didnot know future
Some of these systems with small TP can have hit rates of 90+%. Sure no one knows the future, but these systems have a high hit rate by design.

By the way, 67% is just the win rate required to break even with a 2:1 risk reward ratio. For example, the 67% means that you win 2 trades for every loss. If you make 15 pips on the winners and lose 30 pips on loser, then you are at break even (2 winners x 15 pips = 30 pips, 1 loser x 30 pips = 30 pips, therefore breakeven). So any hit rate over 67% would be profitable (not taking into account the spread).

Cheers,
Matt.
  • #890
  • Dec 1, 2008 10:01am Dec 1, 2008 10:01am
I like breakout strategies... So far todays GBPUSD NY breakout is in profit.
Yes... there is a trend today, so you could have predicted it

Took 30pips, and moved the rest of the lots to BreakEven...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: breakout.gif Size: 14 KB
"White collar crime deserves a blue collar beating!" - 8fingers
  • #891
  • Dec 1, 2008 2:07pm Dec 1, 2008 2:07pm
Quoting tsimic6
I've posted on this thread few weeks before, with my own variation of this system, that proved to work very well for my trading style.
I've attached an spreadsheet with my analysis.

So my system follows these rules:

Enter trade with three lots (in my case micro lots)

First TP - 15 pips (move SL to BE)
Secon TP - 45 pips (move SL to + 5 pips)
Third TP - 100 pips

SL - opposite side of channel (not more than 100 pips)

If channel is wider than 100 pips, then SL is 100 pips.

I'm trading Three pairs - GBP/USD, EUR/USD; CHF/USD

The most...
Hi,

Thanks for sharing your result. I have a couple of questions:

1. Do you check the trend before entering a trade or do you setup two entries ,short and long, regardless of the trend direction?

2. Have you checked if you can limit your stop to only 30 pip? I noticed that if price goes 30 pip against you then it will be a loosing trade.


Cheers
  • #892
  • Edited 3:16am Dec 2, 2008 2:39am | Edited 3:16am
Hi guys,

You've got a super thread going on here. I'm mostly a S&R based trader. Recently, I have taken on the task of developing automated systems so I can live my life more fully. Any how this system rocks if you use it with a little common sense.

The 0600-0800 C.E.T. variation worked like a champ for me today. I was long usd/chf 1.2058. Squared up at 1.2074. I used a bit of experience as to why I squared up prematurely. See the attached charts. I closed because a different type of break took place in eur/usd it broke yesterdays low and failed to trigger any more heavy selling. I took this as a sign to move fast and reassess. Probably a mistake but I'm a defensive trader.

Update: Usd/chf and Eur/usd went on separate paths. The correct course of action was to have faith in the system
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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  • #893
  • Dec 2, 2008 3:48am Dec 2, 2008 3:48am
I thought I would add my thoughts on how to fully trade these patterns. This way we can get more heads on the same page and maybe advance all our learning process.

I'm an S&R trader. So these break trades don't necessarily end with the break for me. I'm also looking for the test of ice. First things first, all breaks are not a candidate for a retracement play. But some are if they line up with conditions. Conditions meaning the conditions of this day not necessarily the trend. Conditions broadly means intermarket analysis and other internal fx factors.

Any how this was a pattern that was big time text book.

1. Legitimate 6-8 c.e.t. orb break
2. Come back to test gap* ( * my definition of gap is a fast price departure)
3. Initial Target is back fill to H2 orb base
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 1.JPG Size: 58 KB
  • #894
  • Dec 2, 2008 4:21am Dec 2, 2008 4:21am
what is S&R trader?
  • #895
  • Dec 2, 2008 4:25am Dec 2, 2008 4:25am
Quoting dkv023
what is S&R trader?
That means support and resistance or supply and demand
  • #896
  • Dec 2, 2008 4:26am Dec 2, 2008 4:26am
o its intresting! Where i can read more about it? Do you trade real acount?
  • #897
  • Dec 2, 2008 4:29am Dec 2, 2008 4:29am
Quoting bigjim1958
Hi CTGUY:
Quick question, made 10 pips this morning. Price broke out +10, then down to +6, then up to +15, then down to + 8,etc. Once the price breaks past 10, do you not let it go down below 10, closing the trade as soon as it does, to prevent a winning trade turning into a loser? Or do you let it jump back and forth around 10? Also, I now you use a 15 pip trailing stop once it hits 30 pips profit. If the price is between say 10 and 30 pips profit, if it retrace back to 10 pip profit, do you close at 10. Sorry if this rambles, but I closed out...
Hey Jim

My goal is 10 pips in slow movements. If the movement is big, I grab as many as I can
"To Be A Successful Forex Trader, You Need A Successful Forex Mentor."
  • #898
  • Dec 2, 2008 4:30am Dec 2, 2008 4:30am
Quoting dkv023
o its intresting! Where i can read more about it? Do you trade real acount?
I trade real. Right here on F.F., You can read about s&r. The best thread going is billyrayvalentines's no brainer thread.
  • #899
  • Dec 2, 2008 4:32am Dec 2, 2008 4:32am
Quoting piptrees
Hi,

Yes I think its wonderful if we are able to get 10 pips consistently from this strategy everyday. But if stop loss is about 50-80 pips, it will take only 1 loss to wipe out 9 winners. So I was wondering is it prudent to straight away shoot for 10 pips and set a stop loss of 20 pips. This means that if i lose 20 pips, I am out and I try again tomorrow. Do you think this is a practical approach?

Thanks, any advice will be greatly appreciated!
The stop loss question has been asked many times. I can't advise on what ones stop loss should be. No one has a magical answer.
"To Be A Successful Forex Trader, You Need A Successful Forex Mentor."
  • #900
  • Dec 2, 2008 4:38am Dec 2, 2008 4:38am
Quoting Guerrillawar
I trade real. Right here on F.F., You can read about s&r. The best thread going is billyrayvalentines's no brainer thread.
ye i just started read few days ago!
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