Personal Journal of The Fist Method

Why do we do it? Do we just love the pain? Is that it?

Well, this week started off badly, The Fist was getting spanked for a few hundred pips, lowest I think was about -700 pips.. And my oak-like steadfastness in The Fist began to waver.. The market was a bit mixed, and I really didn't know how to handle situations like that, and I missed a critical day of trading.. All that added up to a bad bad week..

Well, I got my rear in gear, sat down and put in a bit more due diligence, and the Fist is now once again, Fisting the Market.

Very few positions to put on this week though, I've had a total of 5, so far, with 1 pending, and those are just sad sad numbers.. Oh well, such is life.

As I type, the Fist is at +700 right now, so a nice +1400 pip reversal. We will see how much it ends up at the end of the week.. With so few positions, I wouldn't be surprised that it ends up barely breaking 500 pips..

But I guess we all need a trial by fire to see what we are all made of, and the Fist is no exception..

Slow week this week..

Only ended with a +584 pips, from a total of 6 trades, one losing one, 5 winners.

I guess my question is, if my WORST week is beating the "pros", how "pro" can they actually be??

I have been trying to figure out a smarter way to backtest The Fist against like 4~6 years of data; since the fist lends itself to heavy automation, the backtesting should be like 98% accurate.

I'm using a sqlite+python combination, which I find to be great.

For all those who care, I have finally realized, that pretty much all of it is historical data, and I'm doing this in a database, I can pre-calculate the numbers, shove them into the db, and then program from there. I'm separating the calculations and the fist, by doing the calculations first. This two-tiered attack seems to be the much less code-intensive method, and I can both reduce coding by 50%, while decreasing the likelihood of errors.

I've re-written this over 5 times and I haven't even started typing code!

Overall however, I think Python+Sqlite is quite promising, it allows for RAD in ways most other combinations can't. I was going to use perl, as I'm positive it will be the fastest to write, but will probably be the ugliest to debug.

One of the benefits of data in DB is that I can manipulate it quite easily. I love db's..

With the possibility of moving to MT4, I had to rewrite some indicators from VT over to MT4..

WOW.. what a pain in the arse! It's 2am and I finally got it to work.. Was about to pull my hair out trying to get it to work. Something is not so right about the platform..

That said, I did get the indicator migrated over, and so I'm happy. It should have taken 2 hours less than it did, but oh well, it's all about results and I finally got some results.

I've also noticed that perhaps no MM and 8 pairs will out-do MM and 4 pairs.. or my MM is not aggressive enough.

Trying the North Finance platform, it's a bit slow on the demo, I hope the live server is a bit faster.

That said, having Gold and Microsoft as tradeable options brings a whole new world of possibilities..

Because I'm going to be trading 10~11 items in North Finance, including Gold and stocks, I will not be doing MM simply because at 5%, each item would get at most, TWO entries..

so I'm just going to buy 1.5 lots of each, per entry.

That said, if we have a good week, I expect 25,000+ pips is quite possible...

It's my hope that the end of this week, I've at least shattered the 10,000 pip week, and quite possibly hit the 25,000 pip week mark.

"I think I can I think I can.."

http://www.rdstore.com/sitemedia/pro...es/08519al.jpg

For some reasons, most Americans fear the word "math" more than "AIDS".

I'm listening to Suze Orman and I have to say, she is pretty freakin' annoying... BUT, at least she's preaching savings and investing.

That said, my friend and I were crunching the numbers, and regardless how much Suze huffs and puffs, "working" as the sole means of income, will NEVER get you where you want to be, and while you might have a "decent" nestegg when you retire, it's not a justification for spending your life as a work slave.

To this respect, I actually do believe Tim Ferriss.. The reality of it is that you really need to supplement your income with a "moonlighting" job, until it overtakes your primary job.

I often want to start a business, but every time I compare it to Forex, most other businesses aren't as appealing. Still, I'd like to have some computer companies and "do it right" for a change..

Oh well..


My new motto:

Double your account every 3 months or die trying.

So I haven't gotten a chance to update the journal..

Two weeks ago:

-1900pips.. Oh well, had a losing week. Such is life.

This week:

+1700pips..

I have applied The Fist to stocks, without good success.. That was partially the reason for the big loss two weeks ago. So I've stopped trading the fist against stocks, but will probably trade bounce against it. Should yield much better results.

When a price moves say... 400 pips. The fist is able to grab something like 1600 pips. How is that possible and what is the math behind it?

Well.. I've been watching the TV show "Numb3rs", and the answer came to me while watching it.

Cocaine. So the fist is based on a cocaine distribution model.

Let's say you start off with a 1Kg bag of pure cocaine. The street value is somewhere around $300,000. BUT, when it is distributed, it becomes well over $1M. how is that possible, a growth of 3x the original amount?

Studying cocaine distribution models, and I am now able to confirm that the fist gets pips like cocaine dealers get more money.

I'm very happy that there is finally a math model that explains well, what I am doing. I would have liked it to be something not so drug related, but oh well. Drugs are a great math model for almost anything and everything, the distribution is dynamic, and the math optimizations are amazing.

While I can't go into great details about it, just hope that the math I'm finding might help others.

Because stocks are not 24 hours, I am going to start looking for something to attack it. What I call "Jump Theory". The fact that during openings, there are a lot of variables, gap up, gap down, etc... I have no math model to take these things into account, FX provides only one of these per week, but stocks provide 5 of them a week.

The basis of jump theory that I'm starting at, is based on the concept of not turning off your computer; the "start up" causes the most likelihood of failure, and produces the most stress on the system as a whole. This is true for all electronic and mechanical items, but also for stocks vs forex.

There must exist a math model in which I can use, to reduce the risk of this.

The Cocaine redistribution model has been wildly successful and I'm so happy because of it.

I now need a good jump model. I'm familiar with computers, and the financial world, but I might have to go outside of these two areas to get a working model I'm happy with.

Seems like a lot of people ask me, how I "think outside the box".

My question is.. What's a box???

Hope that answers that question..

Week ended up a tad under 2000 pips. Switching platforms has been a bit more difficult than I have liked in the MM department, namely MT4 programmers have no concept of MM and thus does nothing to facilitate its calculations.

So for all the weeks the fist has been cranking, I think about a floating 2000 pips per week is average when you don't take into account MM.

I'm fairly curious what most define as "The Holy Grail". I am not sure The Fist is the holy grail, but it so far is allowing me to meet and exceed the 22% a month requirement I had originally set out.

I'm not sure after the new years, I'll actually update this journal anymore.

Because SOOOO many of you ask, I thought I'd do me a favor by just posting the chart I trade off of.

You all think I have some Uber Victoria's Secret Indicator or something..

So, screenshot of the chart I trade off of.

When I say "bare" I mean bare. I'm not sure what you guys were all expecting to see.

Hope I've answered a few questions though..

Well.. The week closed with me showing +3600pips.

http://artfiles.art.com/images/-/Gla...C10039273.jpeg

Just call me Gladys Knight 'cause I've got me a whole lot of pips!!

I think they call the midnight train to Georgia... EUR/USD...

2008-01-09 update.

Leaving with the wife for a weekend trip to the mountains, so here's the update for week.

Due to NDA's and other goodies, I had stopped posting here..

BUT.. it seems there is one person who is persistent on seeing what my trading chart looks like so I have attached it here.

Hope this brings you years of enlightenment..

I keep saying that the fist is based on ONE THING, statistics based on price action.

So my chart is as boring as it gets..

See attached fisting chart..

Trading only 3 pairs, I'm up about 5500+ pips in two weeks. That's quite good... I am surprised at this, since it took me less than 1 minute a day to work on this.

I might be facing a few business trips coming up, and this is when the fist will have to take the big test, when I might not be able to view it everyday.

That said, since it only takes me 1 minute a day, I can probably still fist the market during vacation. Time will tell.

I am happy with the returns; down from 10 pairs to 4 pairs tracked, 3 pairs traded, and I'm still getting about 50% of the pippage.

There's less correlation, but the pound and the EUR move pretty much in sync with each other against the USD.. so I'm wondering if I should add a EURGBP into the mix..

I would like to keep that average to around 3000 raw pips a week against 4 pairs. If I can keep that up for two years, I should retire with a few million in the bank..

I love the fist..

I started watching "The New Doctor Who" (BBC) today, and I discovered that there was actually a word that describes what The Fist Method does!

The Fist actually does what is known as "Tardising", from the word "Tardis" the tv show doctor who.

When you measure highest point to lowest point, the fist is able to extract (sometimes many times more) than the peak to trough of that movement.

If the movement highest to lowest was say.. 200 pips, the fist is able to extract something like 1000 pips from it. The INSIDE is bigger than the OUTSIDE! The pips gained is MORE than the total pip movement!

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/TARDIS

For those who don't know what a Tardis is..
it looks like this:

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedi.../5f/TARDIS.jpg

but the inside looks like this:

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedi...Tinterior1.jpg

and hopefully, yours comes with a Rose Tyler inside as well..

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedi...Rosetyler2.jpg

Twoblink, I have been using HAT with a volatility filter for 6-9 months with very good results. Thank you for for the HAT.

ditto,
maybe a time to show the equity growth for last months?

While I can't show equity growth.. (NDA)

To answer someone's question that they asked; yes I am still trading the fist, and yes it is still very profitable.


Ha! I post a reply because 8~10 people ask me the same question and so I figure it's far easier to post it for them and posterity.

Those who have emotional needs simply aren't making enough pips IMHO... So none of this is for emotional needs.