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4 Hour Strategy (MACD)

  • #2,121
  • Mar 8, 2007 6:27am Mar 8, 2007 6:27am
Quoting irusoh
That's when you see a long tail already in place. So chances are they are not going to go back there again.
Thanks Irusoh
  • #2,122
  • Mar 8, 2007 7:06am Mar 8, 2007 7:06am
Anybody taking the one hour signal on USD/JPY

I'm short at 117.02 sl at 117.32
targeting the 89ema, central pivot point and the 61.8 of the last move, all clustered at 116.23, near middle of range of 115.60-117.25
  • #2,123
  • Mar 8, 2007 7:21am Mar 8, 2007 7:21am
not yet... waiting waiting waiting...

I'll take it as soon as I see another candle close on the 1 hour down or at the half hour mark (maybe)... I have both the usdjpy, and eur/jpy at the top of a trendline facing resistance forming RT's. Hourly candle have tails up and are also facing a trendline upper resistance.

Quoting pilgrim
Anybody taking the one hour signal on USD/JPY

I'm short at 117.02 sl at 117.32
targeting the 89ema, central pivot point and the 61.8 of the last move, all clustered at 116.23, near middle of range of 115.60-117.25
DireXiv Make it happen, no one else is going to do it for you...
  • #2,124
  • Mar 8, 2007 7:55am Mar 8, 2007 7:55am
Quoting pilgrim
Anybody taking the one hour signal on USD/JPY

I'm short at 117.02 sl at 117.32
targeting the 89ema, central pivot point and the 61.8 of the last move, all clustered at 116.23, near middle of range of 115.60-117.25
I have been following this thread for a while, and have come up with a nice pip-spinning scheme: If anyone suggests a trade in here that are not strictly following Phillip's 4H system and not ignoring the 1H MACD; do the opposite!

No dissing, Pilgrim, but after the 4H had a dip below 0 (albeit after a very short spell above), and smashed through 21 MA, the is only one way for this one to go; up towards 89MA.

There just aren't any RT's or RB's on the 1H chart, and the few that looks like they are there are seldom giving any good R:R-R.

Erik
  • #2,125
  • Mar 8, 2007 8:00am Mar 8, 2007 8:00am
What caused that spike down on the Euro$??? Did I miss a news blip somewhere???
  • #2,126
  • Mar 8, 2007 8:03am Mar 8, 2007 8:03am
What waas it Philip said, something like let the trades come to you? What a beautiful expression, is it me and my imagination or is eurusd looking more RT ish by the minute, and gbpusd is desperate to cross the 0 line, (or would that be me thats desperate) either way....hang in there kids
Never say never.
  • #2,127
  • Mar 8, 2007 8:11am Mar 8, 2007 8:11am
Quoting Palmer
What caused that spike down on the Euro$??? Did I miss a news blip somewhere???
I'm showing its sittin right at the 50% fibo retracement line, I think this is just a retracement before it continues the bull trend.
  • #2,128
  • Mar 8, 2007 8:11am Mar 8, 2007 8:11am
Are you kidding ?
ECB chairman Trichet is having press conference. Market looks for occurrence of some special words in his statement. Somehow he seems to be more dovish than hawkish.

Quoting Palmer
What caused that spike down on the Euro$??? Did I miss a news blip somewhere???
  • #2,129
  • Mar 8, 2007 8:14am Mar 8, 2007 8:14am
Quoting Palmer
What caused that spike down on the Euro$??? Did I miss a news blip somewhere???
Think its just fallout from ecb rate decision and the jobless, lets see if it pushes it down some more. Dollar getting stronger across the board
Never say never.
  • #2,130
  • Edited 8:26am Mar 8, 2007 8:25am | Edited 8:26am
Euro/Us:
I saw a short MACD pattern this morning (EST) in the 4hr chart-don't remember which one, and now I am at work and cannot access my charts- but it seems to be working fine.

US/JP:
After a nice run to the short side yesterday, I saw a bullish MACD pattern here around 11:00 PM (EST). Again, I don't remember what pattern. And I am enjoying my ride!!!

Stick to Phillips rules and the pips will come. Jump too early, and you'll see them pass by as they fill somebody else's account!!!

I learned my lesson. This is what I do: If going long the first bar in MACD MUST be totally closed (green). Won't move until at least 1 hr after the close of that bar. Would confirm with the 1 hr..and if the 1 hr agrees with the 4hr..and the conditions are there (with the trend, S/R lines at decent distance, R:R >1, MA's OK), I'll jump in. If going short the red bar in MACD MUST be completely closed.

If I broke ant of these rules, please kick me for being a fool!!!
There is no excuse to NOT having at least an 80% success record.
  • #2,131
  • Mar 8, 2007 8:25am Mar 8, 2007 8:25am
Well, considering my work schedule today, the news tomorrow, and I'm a dove hunter from time to time and not a hawk hunter....I'll take my 40 doves home with me as of a few moments ago. Because of all of that news and it being a Friday, I'm done for the week. I may have gotten out a little early on this one (EURUSD) but, now who said it.....nobody ever went broke taking a profit. I waited until after the 6:45 release to get in short even though the second 4hr red MACD was forming after the 1st on the RT. The news sent prices back up to the close of the 1st 4hr red MACD bar, actually a few pips higher, and when the news was 'no surprise', then I entered the short. It's been a good week, about 120 pips on the Euro$ and Phillips teachings. Remember now, one of those winning trades was the potato chip trade to make up for the bonehead trade.

Lock 'em in boys...Baby needs new shoes. If you have kids that is. I don't so them shoes be for me!
  • #2,132
  • Mar 8, 2007 8:27am Mar 8, 2007 8:27am
alcastro:

When you said: I learned my lesson. This is what I do: If going long the first bar in MACD MUST be totally closed (either red or green).

You're referring to the 4hr right? You better be, don't make me stop this car and get out!
  • #2,133
  • Mar 8, 2007 8:28am Mar 8, 2007 8:28am
Quoting EdVogon
I have been following this thread for a while, and have come up with a nice pip-spinning scheme: If anyone suggests a trade in here that are not strictly following Phillip's 4H system and not ignoring the 1H MACD; do the opposite!

No dissing, Pilgrim, but after the 4H had a dip below 0 (albeit after a very short spell above), and smashed through 21 MA, the is only one way for this one to go; up towards 89MA.

There just aren't any RT's or RB's on the 1H chart, and the few that looks like they are there are seldom giving any good R:R-R.

Erik



Erik,

Thanks for the input no offense taken, I took a 30 pip spanking on that. I guess my confusion is that some people seem to be following the 1 hour and others the 4 hour. The more I look at the charts the 4 hour seems to be the way to go.

thanks
  • #2,134
  • Mar 8, 2007 8:30am Mar 8, 2007 8:30am
Quoting Chartist
Sorry to barge in like this but could someone tell me what time the MQ4 4hour candles close in EST zone? thanks!
If your chart is following GMT, then in your 4-hr chart, the 4:00 bar tells you the starting time of that bar (4:00 GMT) and that bar closes at 8:00 GMT.

EST is five hours behind GMT. So, the 4:00 GMT bar (of March 8th morning) in your 4-hr chart started at 11:00 PM EST previous night (March 7th night NEW YORK TIME) and ends at 3:00 AM EST next mroning (March 8th morining NEW YOURK TIME).
  • #2,135
  • Mar 8, 2007 8:40am Mar 8, 2007 8:40am
Quoting alcastro
Euro/Us:
I saw a short MACD pattern this morning (EST) in the 4hr chart-don't remember which one, and now I am at work and cannot access my charts- but it seems to be working fine.

US/JP:
After a nice run to the short side yesterday, I saw a bullish MACD pattern here around 11:00 PM (EST). Again, I don't remember what pattern. And I am enjoying my ride!!!

Stick to Phillips rules and the pips will come. Jump too early, and you'll see them pass by as they fill somebody else's account!!!

I learned my lesson. This is what I do: If going long the first bar in MACD MUST be totally closed (green). Won't move until at least 1 hr after the close of that bar. Would confirm with the 1 hr..and if the 1 hr agrees with the 4hr..and the conditions are there (with the trend, S/R lines at decent distance, R:R >1, MA's OK), I'll jump in. If going short the red bar in MACD MUST be completely closed.

If I broke ant of these rules, please kick me for being a fool!!!
There is no excuse to NOT having at least an 80% success record.
wow impressive, buen trabajo alcastro, so let me get this straight once there is a crossover you dont take it for one hour and look for a confirmation on the one hour chart (using the same macd inputs I am supposing), thankyou trying to keep all of this straight...
Never say never.
  • #2,136
  • Mar 8, 2007 8:41am Mar 8, 2007 8:41am
Quoting alcastro
Euro/Us:
I saw a short MACD pattern this morning (EST) in the 4hr chart-don't remember which one, and now I am at work and cannot access my charts- but it seems to be working fine.

US/JP:
After a nice run to the short side yesterday, I saw a bullish MACD pattern here around 11:00 PM (EST). Again, I don't remember what pattern. And I am enjoying my ride!!!

Stick to Phillips rules and the pips will come. Jump too early, and you'll see them pass by as they fill somebody else's account!!!

I learned my lesson. This is what I do: If going long the first bar in MACD MUST be totally closed (green). Won't move until at least 1 hr after the close of that bar. Would confirm with the 1 hr..and if the 1 hr agrees with the 4hr..and the conditions are there (with the trend, S/R lines at decent distance, R:R >1, MA's OK), I'll jump in. If going short the red bar in MACD MUST be completely closed.

If I broke ant of these rules, please kick me for being a fool!!!
There is no excuse to NOT having at least an 80% success record.

Alcastro,

When you say you confirm with the 1 hour are you just saying that you are looking for movement in the same direction as the 4 hour. As the 1 hour will be ahead of the 4 hour.
  • #2,137
  • Mar 8, 2007 8:47am Mar 8, 2007 8:47am
So here we have swissy which has gone past the 89 ma, and this 4hr bar will be closing shortly. So you say (alcastro or whoever else wants to listen to my ranting) you wait for another hour and a conf on the 1hr is that right? Do you also wait for it to pull back to say the 21 ema as Phillip said to do or do you get in wherever it is at that time...thankyou
Attached Image
Never say never.
  • #2,138
  • Edited 9:20am Mar 8, 2007 8:49am | Edited 9:20am
Quoting Palmer
What caused that spike down on the Euro$??? Did I miss a news blip somewhere???
Hi Palmer,

The US Dollar Index spiked. See attached chart. It was much more than Trichet's "less vigilant" stance (hehe...). Hey, the system gave the signals for both EUR and USD. Cable didn't respond to the same extent....20ish pips and a rebound. Think the H&S onn EUR and Inverted on Swissie have helped fuel movement. Along w/pent up frustration.

Like the typo...USD is supposed to be Swissie....gee whiz!
Attached Image
  • #2,139
  • Mar 8, 2007 8:50am Mar 8, 2007 8:50am
Hi all,

My first post. I have been monitoring and reading past posts for 2 weeks. A great thread and Thank you Philip. I am currently trading eurusd in at 3160 stop was at 3189, closed first of 3 lots at 21 [39 pips]. we are sitting on 21 - 24 area and wondering how some of you reassess your RR. I have moved my stops on remaining to BE but my next TP is 3102. Would you move its stop to 1:1 ratio?

Thanks and look forward to posting more,

Scott
  • #2,140
  • Mar 8, 2007 8:51am Mar 8, 2007 8:51am
Quoting razldazl
wow impressive, buen trabajo alcastro, so let me get this straight once there is a crossover you dont take it for one hour and look for a confirmation on the one hour chart (using the same macd inputs I am supposing), thankyou trying to keep all of this straight...

Razdazl

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