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Trading aud/nzd successfully

  • #161
  • Edited 2:27am Nov 28, 2008 2:16am | Edited 2:27am
The account just moved up to $652.15 up another 10% of the original equity. Margin level 9944.31%. Have a good day fellow traders.

Cheers
  • #162
  • Nov 28, 2008 2:41am Nov 28, 2008 2:41am
Quoting nanningbob
AAAAhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh. I could have placed in the top 5 IBFX contest . Aaaaaaaaaaaahhhhhhhhhhhhhhggggggggggggg. I would have been over 100% someplace. aaaaaaaaaaaaaahhhhhhhhhhhhh gggggggggggggggg. DANG When am I gonna learn that those guys with the super programs get killed when they have to close AAAAAAAAAAhhhhhhhhhhhhhggggggggggggggggg dang dang dang


Bob, with your experience this time I am sure you will do well in the contest next time. It will be good to see you as a winner. Everybody loves to be associated with a winner, me included.
  • #163
  • Nov 28, 2008 8:03am Nov 28, 2008 8:03am
"Trading .05 is not the same as trading .20 and everything is 4x. The multiplication is done exponentially so if you hit a loss using these numbers at .20 it would clean out a 2000 dollar account. If you want the 4x you need to use 4 accounts using the same numbers.

If you really want to use .20 you need to change the multiplication and other things to make it work. Use Frosts excel program to make it work with .20 If you dont know your stop loss figure dont trade the number."

Bob, I'm not clear on this. I'm using .15 on a live account if over $4,000.00. Using the spreadsheet, it shows that my maximum loss will be $715.00, which is roughly 3 times what it would be at .05. If I input .2 lots, the max loss shows $953.20, which is a little less than 4 times what going .05 shows
  • #164
  • Nov 28, 2008 11:48am Nov 28, 2008 11:48am
FrostCall what does the Total in your spreadsheet mean?
I understand the

coverage, drawdown, Max Floating DD and the other stuff, but not the meaning of the total.
  • #165
  • Nov 28, 2008 12:10pm Nov 28, 2008 12:10pm
I've also used the stock 35 x 20 on the AUDCAD with similar results. It seems to move much like the AUDNZD.
  • #166
  • Nov 28, 2008 12:58pm Nov 28, 2008 12:58pm
I have been wondering how this ea makes such astonishing returns. I have finally figured it out. The risk settings that Nanningbob recommends is way to high. I finally looked at Frostcall's excel program. Running .05 lots at with a $500 account would lose half the account if you hit a stop loss!! Running the ea this way is no more than gambling, no different than being in the casino. This is way to high, more like 10 times to high. Think about what is going to happen if you hit 5 stop losses in one week. You would be completely wiped out on the 2nd loss. I have started to run the ea on demo and it already hit all 7 levels on Wednesday. This is even with keeping it off in the USA session. It did recover but this just goes to show this is a very dangerous ea without a conservative risk profile. I have always been taught that a stop less should be 2% of your account with 5% being the max. This means that this ea should never be run with less than a $1,000 account using .01 lots. This would be a 5% stop loss which be reasonably safe.
  • #167
  • Nov 28, 2008 1:17pm Nov 28, 2008 1:17pm
Quoting toyoproxo
I have been wondering how this ea makes such astonishing returns. I have finally figured it out. The risk settings that Nanningbob recommends is way to high. I finally looked at Frostcall's excel program. Running .05 lots at with a $500 account would lose half the account if you hit a stop loss!! Running the ea this way is no more than gambling, no different than being in the casino. This is way to high, more like 10 times to high. Think about what is going to happen if you hit 5 stop losses in one week. You would be completely wiped out on the...
You could always lower your lot size, thus lowering your risk if you feel like it is an unacceptable risk. On my account the most I can lose is about 5% on a stoploss hit and I still enjoy rather nice returns, so far.
  • #168
  • Nov 28, 2008 1:31pm Nov 28, 2008 1:31pm
If there were stopouts for an entire month, and the EA makes 30% to 50% a week, that would be a good risk to return ratio for me. The key is the probability of getting stopped out. Bob could anser that question better than me.
Quoting toyoproxo
I have been wondering how this ea makes such astonishing returns. I have finally figured it out. The risk settings that Nanningbob recommends is way to high. I finally looked at Frostcall's excel program. Running .05 lots at with a $500 account would lose half the account if you hit a stop loss!! Running the ea this way is no more than gambling, no different than being in the casino. This is way to high, more like 10 times to high. Think about what is going to happen if you hit 5 stop losses in one week. You would be completely wiped out on the...
  • #169
  • Nov 28, 2008 1:36pm Nov 28, 2008 1:36pm
Was going to ask you about this. Is your stop set to hit before the normal stop level of the EA? In other words, would your positions be closed out before the regular EA stop, or are you using such low lot sizes that 5% matches what the EA would stop you out at? In that case, you probably are using something like .01 per $500.00 account size, or even less.
Quoting Verto
You could always lower your lot size, thus lowering your risk if you feel like it is an unacceptable risk. On my account the most I can lose is about 5% on a stoploss hit and I still enjoy rather nice returns, so far.
  • #170
  • Nov 28, 2008 1:47pm Nov 28, 2008 1:47pm
Quoting paradoxical
Was going to ask you about this. Is your stop set to hit before the normal stop level of the EA? In other words, would your positions be closed out before the regular EA stop, or are you using such low lot sizes that 5% matches what the EA would stop you out at? In that case, you probably are using something like .01 per $500.00 account size, or even less.
Same stoploss, just lower lot sizes. It is about .01 per 500$, thankfully I trade this on a larger account size so the % of risk is small to me.
  • #171
  • Nov 28, 2008 2:04pm Nov 28, 2008 2:04pm
Quoting willmalou
FrostCall what does the Total in your spreadsheet mean?
I understand the

coverage, drawdown, Max Floating DD and the other stuff, but not the meaning of the total.

The 'Total' is the Maximum profit that can be expected if the EA reaches the maximum number of lots, then retraces and hits a take profit. Once you have hit the maximum number of lots, the next move is either to retrace and hit the Take Profit, or to keep going the 'wrong' way and hit the StopLoss.
  • #172
  • Nov 28, 2008 2:06pm Nov 28, 2008 2:06pm
Quoting toyoproxo
I have been wondering how this ea makes such astonishing returns. I have finally figured it out. The risk settings that Nanningbob recommends is way to high. I finally looked at Frostcall's excel program. Running .05 lots at with a $500 account would lose half the account if you hit a stop loss!! Running the ea this way is no more than gambling, no different than being in the casino

Less like gambling and more like being the house. The numbers are in your favor. However, as it has been stated before, you really need to make sure that your account is large enough to handle your losses. You also should never invest more money then you are willing to lose. I personally still use 0.01 lot sizes (pennies). That's what I feel comfortable with.
  • #173
  • Nov 28, 2008 2:13pm Nov 28, 2008 2:13pm
Frost, do you know the odds of getting stopped out if someone doesn't trade the US session?
Also, if I understood bob correctly, he said going .2 lots on one $2,000.00 account was NOT the same as going .05 lots on 4 $500.00 accounts, as the increase was exponential and not just 4 times .05 when someone went .2 lots. I don't understand that. Can you explain why my loss if stopped out would be more than 4 times greater at .20, than if I went .05? Inputting the numbers on the spreadsheet don't show that.
Quoting FrostCall
Less like gambling and more like being the house. The numbers are in your favor. However, as it has been stated before, you really need to make sure that your account is large enough to handle your losses. You also should never invest more money then you are willing to lose. I personally still use 0.01 lot sizes (pennies). That's what I feel comfortable with.
  • #174
  • Nov 28, 2008 2:44pm Nov 28, 2008 2:44pm
OK, so with the standard settings:

max profit is: 16.8
Max floating DD: 106.4
StopLoss DD: 240.8

x4 (as in, running this on 4 pairs) =

profit: 67.2
Floating DD: 425.6
Stoploss DD: 963.2



Now, if you change just the lot size to 0.2, you get:

Max profit: 64.55
Floating DD: 422.2
Stoploss DD: 953.2


Which means, that it's not that big of a difference. I've actually stated this before in an earlier post. The real difference is that you are not spreading your risk out. Also, if you change the number of trades, and increase the pips and take profit, the difference gets larger. The reason things are not exact is due to the rounding performed by your broker (which is different for each broker). I think bob is just trying to warn people that they need to be aware that things don't multiply exactly like you think they would 100% of the time. But as you can see in this instance, it's pretty darn close.
  • #175
  • Nov 28, 2008 3:12pm Nov 28, 2008 3:12pm
Frost, thanks for the reply. That's what I had, too. A loss of $953.20 if someone went .20. I use .15, so my max loss would be $715.00 if completely stopped out. My thinking is that if the stock 35X20 settings make an average of approximately $75.00 a day or more, in 10 trading days I'm playing with house money. Then, if the odds of getting stopped out if you don't trade the U.S session are every 30 days, it's a good bet. I realize that things change in forex, and past history is no guarantee. But, I would be interested inknowing if anyone knows how many times one would have been stopped out with these settings in the last year.
  • #176
  • Nov 28, 2008 4:31pm Nov 28, 2008 4:31pm
Quoting paradoxical
Frost, thanks for the reply. That's what I had, too. A loss of $953.20 if someone went .20. I use .15, so my max loss would be $715.00 if completely stopped out. My thinking is that if the stock 35X20 settings make an average of approximately $75.00 a day or more, in 10 trading days I'm playing with house money. Then, if the odds of getting stopped out if you don't trade the U.S session are every 30 days, it's a good bet. I realize that things change in forex, and past history is no guarantee. But, I would be interested inknowing if anyone knows...

I guess we are going to have to wait until Bob comes back. I am sure he can shed some light on this issue.
  • #177
  • Nov 28, 2008 4:51pm Nov 28, 2008 4:51pm
The more I think about it, the more I think knowing how often you could be stopped out is a key issue, no matter if you trade .01, .05, .15,, or whatever amount. Because no matter what amount you trade, as long as you always trade that same amount, it still takes the same amount of time to get the same ratio of dollars to amount risked. For example, if I'm trading .20 and get stopped out an lose $715.00, someone going .01 loses "only" $81.80, but it would take him the same amount of time to get even as I would, if I always go .20, and he always go .01.
Also, I'm not a mathemetician, but looking at the spreadsheet, I can't figure out why you'd lose $81.80 at .01, and $715.00 if you went .20. I would think .20 would lose twenty times .01, or $1,636.00, all things being equal.
Is my thinking way off here, or ?
Quoting toyoproxo
I guess we are going to have to wait until Bob comes back. I am sure he can shed some light on this issue.
  • #178
  • Nov 28, 2008 7:10pm Nov 28, 2008 7:10pm
Quoting tommyd
I've also used the stock 35 x 20 on the AUDCAD with similar results. It seems to move much like the AUDNZD.

SHHHHHHHHHHHH DONT GIVE AWAY ALL MY SECRETS SHHHHHHHHH There are several currencies you can use this with but only certain times. The Aud Cad works if you dont go into the USA session and you stay away from Aud news stories. The Eur/gbp worked also until it started the 300 pip days of recent history
  • #179
  • Nov 28, 2008 7:18pm Nov 28, 2008 7:18pm
I know we're not dealing with the 100/40 in this thread but everyone's posting here now so thought I'd throw this in. Here are my settings:
Trading only the EUR/USD ,.01 or .02 lots, mult. 1.5, max. trades 15, no stoploss, letting EA run all week, shutting down usually by thur. night.
Beginning balance-$3000
Balance after week 1-$3130 (.01) lots, Deepest trade level (9)
week 2-$3239 (.01) (10)
week 3-$3409 (.02) (10)
week 4-$3484 (.02) (9)
week 5-$3543 (.02) (6)
  • #180
  • Nov 28, 2008 7:22pm Nov 28, 2008 7:22pm
Quoting paradoxical
If there were stopouts for an entire month, and the EA makes 30% to 50% a week, that would be a good risk to return ratio for me. The key is the probability of getting stopped out. Bob could anser that question better than me.
My experience in 6 weeks of live testing is I have never been stopped out running jpy open until the middle of the Euro session. Doesnt mean it will never happen or that market conditions down the road wont change but right now, it is a small chance. For example the Eur/gbp never went over 148 pips in one day in a 7 year period. In the last 6 weeks it has had several 200 and 300 pip days. My 100/40 EA tested profitably and successfully for 10 months and then the market changed and can only be used on a few currencies successfully when in the past I could run it on 18. Market conditions change and when they do we will have to change. Right now the AUD/NZD run very tight together and bounce. How long this will do this is anybodies guess. 2 months, 5 years, I dont know but I am going to profit from it until the market changes. Forex trading is genuine and understanding how the market moves is the key to profitability. That is why purchansing an EA has its limited rewards, when the market changes they become worthless. I hope sharing information on forums like this will keep us all up to date. 6 months from now this EA could be worthless. Get your original investment out and take home your profits, that is how you win at this game.
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